CONSTRUCTING A PROBLEM SOLVING ENVIRONMENT TOOL FOR HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web‐based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in‐stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed‐wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof‐of‐concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.     

IDENTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long‐term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55‐year period of 1940–1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflow in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one‐, seven‐, and 30‐day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985–194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970–1979, which represents the 10‐year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985–1994.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

ASSESSING LAND USE IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY USING MICROBIAL SOURCE TRACKING1

ABSTRACT: A renewed emphasis on source water protection and watershed management has resulted from recent amendments and initiatives under the Safe Drinking Water Act and the Clean Water Act. Knowledge of the impact of land use choices on source water quality is critical for efforts to properly manage activities within a watershed. This study evaluated qualitative relationships between land use and source water quality and the quantitative impact of season and rainfall events on water quality parameters. High levels of specific conductance tended to be associated with dense residential development, while organic carbon was elevated at several forested sites. Turbidity was generally higher in more urbanized areas. Source tracking indicators were detected in samples where land use types would predict their presence. Coliform levels were statistically different at the 95 percent confidence levels for winter versus summer conditions and dry versus wet weather conditions. Other water quality parameters that varied with season were organic carbon, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, and specific conductance. These results indicate that land use management can be effective for mitigating impacts to a water body; however, year‐ round, comprehensive data are necessary to thoroughly evaluate the water quality at a particular site.     

CHANGING NEAR‐STREAM LAND USE AND RWER CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY IN THE VENEZUELAN ANDES1

ABSTRACT: The shape of a river channel is linked to surrounding land use through interacting hydrologic and geologic processes. This study analyzes the relationship between the change in near‐stream land use and the shape of the adjacent river channel over time. Three watersheds in the foothills of the Venezuelan Andes that have experienced differing degrees of development were studied to determine river channel width, sinuosity, and position relative to surrounding land use. Change in land use over time was obtained from multiple‐date aerial photographs (1946 and 1980) referenced to 1996 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery, and verified by field inspection. Measurements of land‐use type and amount and river channel morphology from the two dates were made using geographic information system (GIS) methods. The three watersheds differed in the extent of deforestation, the location of remaining forested land, and how much land‐use change had already occurred by 1946. Change in river channel morphology was greatest at the most deforested sites. Valley shape and channel constraint also had a discernible effect on change in channel morphology. This study introduces a method for analyzing change in coupled terrestrial‐aquatic systems based on multiple‐date, remotely sensed data and GIS analysis of spatial properties. The results document human impacts on river channels through a comparison of multiple watersheds over a 35‐year time interval.     

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), a method is presented to develop a spatially explicit time series of land use in an urbanizing watershed. The method is prefaced on the existence of independent observations of land use at different times and data that describes the spatial‐temporal land use transition characteristics of the watershed between these two points in time. A method is then presented to generalize the TR‐55 graphical method, a common lumped hydrologic model for estimating peak discharge, for use in a spatially explicit scheme. This scheme predicts peak discharge throughout a watershed, rather than at a single selected watershed outlet. Coupling these two methods allows the engineer to model both the temporal and spatial evolution of peak discharge for the watershed. An illustrative watershed in a suburban area of Washington, DC is selected to demonstrate the methods. The model results from these analyses are presented graphically to highlight the complex features in peak discharge behavior that exist both spatially, as a function of position within the watershed drainage network, and temporally, as the watershed undergoes urbanization. These features are not commonly noted in most hydrologic analyses but are captured in these analyses because of the high spatial and temporal resolution of the methods presented. The physical implications of the modeled results are discussed in the context of the information content of a stream gauge located at the overall outlet of the illustrative watershed. This work shows that the common practice of transposition of gauge information to locations internal to the watershed would neglect internal variability in peak discharge behavior, and could potentially lead to the determination of inappropriate design discharges.     

FORECASTING FUTURE LAND USE FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Protecting surface water quality in watersheds undergoing demographic change requires both the management of existing threats and planning to address potential future stresses arising from changing land use. Many reservoirs and threatened waterbodies are located in areas undergoing rapid population growth, and increases in density of residential and commercial land use, accompanied by increased amount of impervious surface area, can result in increased pollutant loading and degradation of water quality. Effective planning to address potential threats, including zoning and growth management, requires analytical tools to predict and compare the impacts of different management options. The focus of this paper is not on developing demographic projections, but rather the translation of such projections into changes in land use which form the basis for assessment of future watershed loads. Land use change can be forecast at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A semi-lumped, GIS-based, transition matrix approach is recommended as consistent with the level of complexity achievable in most watershed models. Practical aspects of forecasting future land use for watershed assessment are discussed. Several recent reservoir water supply projection studies are used to demonstrate a general framework for simulating changes in land use and resulting impacts on water quality. In addition to providing a technical basis for selecting optimal management alternatives, such a tool is invaluable for demonstrating to different stakeholder groups the trade-offs among management alternatives, both in terms of water quality and future land use patterns within the watershed.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING AND HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.     

URBAN IMPACTS ON PHYSICAL STREAM CONDITION: EFFECTS OF SPATIAL SCALE,CONNECTIVITY, AND LONGITUDINAL TRENDS1

ABSTRACT: An assessment of physical conditions in urban streams of the Puget Sound region, coupled with spatially explicit watershed characterizations, demonstrates the importance of spatial scale, drainage network connectivity, and longitudinal downstream trends when considering the effects of urbanization on streams. A rapid stream assessment technique and a multimetric index were used to describe the physical conditions of multiple reaches in four watersheds. Watersheds were characterized using geographic information system (GIS) derived landscape metrics that represent the magnitude of urbanization at three spatial scales and the connectivity of urban land. Physical conditions, as measured by the physical stream conditions index (PSCI), were best explained for the watersheds by two landscape metrics: quantity of intense and grassy urban land in the subwatershed and quantity of intense and grassy urban land within 500 m of the site (R²= 0.52, p > 0.0005). A multiple regression of PSCI with these metrics and an additional connectivity metric (proximity of a road crossing) provided the best model for the three urban watersheds (R²= 0.41, p > 0.0005). Analyses of longitudinal trends in PSCI within the three urban watersheds showed that conditions improved when a stream flowed through an intact riparian buffer with forest or wetland vegetation and without road crossings. Results demonstrate that information on spatial scale and patterns of urbanization is essential to understanding and successfully managing urban streams.     

EXAMINING LAND USE INFLUENCES ON STREAM HABITATS AND MACROINVERTEBRATES: A GIS APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to assess the relationships between land use patterns and the physical habitat and macroinvertebrate fauna of streams within similar sized watersheds. Eleven second or third order watersheds ranging from highly urbanized to heavily forested were selected along Lake Superior's North Shore. Land use patterns within the watersheds were quantified using readily available digital land use/land cover information, with a minimum mapping resolution of 16 ha. Physical habitat features, describing substrate characteristics and stream morphology, were characterized at sample points within each stream. Principle component and correlation analyses were used to identify relationships between macroinvertebrates and stream physical habitat, and between habitat and land use patterns. Substrate characteristics and presence of coarse woody debris were found to have the strongest correlations with macreinvertebrate assemblage richness and composition. Agricultural and urban land use was correlated with substrate characteristics. Algal abundance, associated with macroinvertebrate compositional differences, was correlated with housing density and non-forest land covers. The use of readily available spatial data, even at this relatively coarse scale, provides a means to detect the primary relationships between land use and stream habitat quality; finer-resolution GIS databases are needed to assess more subtle influences, such as those due to riparian conditions.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF A PINE PLANTATION1

ABSTRACT: There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO₂. Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County, North Carolina, the General Circulation Model, HADCM2, predicts that by the year 2099, maximum air temperature will increase 1.6 to 1.9°C, minimum temperature will increase 2.5 to 2.8°C, and precipitation will increase 0 to 10 percent compared to the mid‐1990s. These changes vary from season to season. We utilized a forest ecosystem process model, PnET‐II, for studying the potential effects of climate change on drainage outflow, evapotranspiration, leaf area index (LAI) and forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This model was first validated with long term drainage and LAI data collected at a 25‐ha mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) experimental watershed located in the North Carolina lower coastal plain. The site is flat with poorly drained soils and high groundwater table. Therefore, a high field capacity of 20 cm was used in the simulation to account for the topographic effects. This modeling study suggested that future climate change would cause a significant increase of drainage (6 percent) and forest productivity (2.5 percent). Future studies should consider the biological feedback (i.e., stomata conductance and water use efficiency) to air temperature change.     

LAND USE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING: AN APPLICATION IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONE1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to describe a land use and environmental planning model. Map overlays were used for analyzing and aggregating economic, social, and environmental data. Various land use categories were evaluated using a numerical scoring system. These scores were then used to assist in the development of land use regulations in a coastal county in South Carolina.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED URBANIZATION AND IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban runoff contributes to nonpoint source pollution, but there is little understanding of the way that pattern and extent of urbanization contributes to this problem. Indicators of type and density of urbanization and access to municipal services were examined in six urban watersheds in Durham, North Carolina. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to identify patterns in the distribution of these variables across the urban landscape. While spatial variation in urban environments is not perfectly captured by any one variable, the results suggest that most of the variation can be explained using several variables related to the extent and distribution of urban development. Multiple linear regression models were fit to relate these urbanization indicators to total phosphorus, total kjeldahl nitrogen, total suspended solids, and fecal coliforms. Development density was correlated to decreased water quality in each of the models. Indicators of urbanization type such as the house age, amount of contiguous impervious surface, and stormwater connectivity explained additional variation. In the nutrient models, access to city services was also an important factor. The results indicate that while urbanization density is important in predicting water quality, indicators of urbanization type and access to city services help explain additional variation in the models.     

INFLUENCE OF REMOTE SENSING IMAGERY SOURCE ON QUANTIFICATION OF RIPARIAN LAND COVER/LAND USE1

ABSTRACT: This paper compares approaches to quantifying land cover/land use (LCLU) in riparian corridors of 23 watersheds in Oregon's Willamette Valley using color infrared aerial photography (AP) and Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. For each imagery source, LCLU adjacent to stream networks were quantified across a range of lateral and longitudinal scales. Single‐date AP data had higher LCLU class accuracies than the multi‐date TM data, except for row crops. Correlations among LCLU classes for the two imagery sources increased with increased spatial extent. In general, LCLU proportions for AP and TM differed, but lateral/longitudinal patterns were similar. An aggregated vegetation class comprised of forest, shrub/scrub, and grass/forb was strongly associated with a fish index of biotic integrity (IBI) for both AP and TM data, although AP correlations were higher. Highest fish IBI correlations for both data sources were with the aggregated vegetation class close to the stream and for the longest longitudinal scales. The row crop class was strongly associated with stream nitrate for both data sources, although correlations for the TM data were higher. Stream nitrate correlations were strongest for the widest lateral and longest longitudinal scales. Overall, both single‐date AP and multi‐date TM imagery appear to have potential for use in estimating indicators of stream ecological condition.     

EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION AND LAND USE ON STORM RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Storm-runoff quantity and quality were studied in three watersheds located near St. Paul in Ramsey County, Minnesota, from April 15 through September 15 of 1984, 1985, and 1986 to qualitatively determine the effects of precipitation and selected land uses on storm runoff. In respect to precipitation effects, differences in stormrunoff quantity between years in an urban watershed that lacks wetlands appear to be related to the average storm size (amount of precipitation) during the study period of each year. In contrast, the differences in storm-runoff quantity from watersheds that contain wetlands appear to be related to total precipitation during study period of each year. In respect to land use, the differences in storm-runoff quantity appear to be related to the amounts of impervious and wetland area. The watershed that contains the largest amount of impervious area and smallest amount of wetland area has the largest amount of storm runoff. Differences in storm-runoff quality appear to be related to the amounts of wetland and lake area. The watershed that contains the largest amounts of wetland and lake area has the smallest storm-runoff loading of suspended solids, phosphorus, and nitrogen. The wetland and lake areas likely retain the loading and, subsequently, lower the amount of storm-runoff loading exported from a watershed.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL DRAINAGE WELL CLOSURE ON CROP PRODUCTION: A WATERSHED CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Much of north-central Iowa is characterized by flat topography, shallow depressions, and poor natural surface drainage. Land drainage systems comprising of tile drains and agricultural drainage wells (ADWs) are used as outlets for subsurface drainage of cropland under corn and soybean production. Studies have shown that these drainage systems, mainly the ADWs, are potential routes for agricultural chemicals to underground aquifers. To protect the region's vital groundwater resource, researchers are evaluating alternative outlets ranging from complete closure of existing ADWs (and creation of wetlands) to continued use of ADWs and chemical management in a comprehensive policy framework. This paper presents the results of a study designed to provide government jurisdictions, farmers, and land managers information for assessing the impact of closing ADWs on crop production. The study couples a geographic information systems database for a 471-hectare watershed in Humboldt County, Iowa, with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) and an empirical crop yield loss model to predict long-term effects of complete closure of ADWs on crop production. The cropland areas inundated and the relative crop yield loss due to ADW closure are determined as a function of long-term climatic data. The results indicate that elimination of drainage outlets in the watershed could result in ponding of low-lying areas and poorly drained soils, making them unsuitable for crop production. Such wetness also decreases the efficiency of production in the no-ponding areas by isolating fields, and the crop yield loss can be reduced by an annual average of about 18 percent.     

EFFECTS OF LAND USE AND TOPOGRAPHY ON SOME WATER QUALITY VARIABLES IN FORESTED EAST TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Spatial variation of five water quality variables were analyzed using composite water samples collected periodically from eight small watersheds (11.4–71.6 km²) in forested East Texas during 1977 through 1980. Based on 31 observations during the four-year period the average yield of nitrate-nitrite nitrogen (NNN), total kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total phosphorus (PO4), chloride (CHL), and total suspended sediment (TSS) were 1.43, 21.96, 3.09, 50.11, and 90.39 ka/ha/yr, respectively. Compared to the water quality standards of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1976) and the Texas Department of Water Resources (1976) for CHL, TSS, and NNN, none of the observations exceeded the limits for public water supplies. The study showed that forested watersheds normally yielded stream flow with better quality than that from agricultural watersheds. Watersheds of greater percent of pasture area, mean slope, stream segment frequency, and drainage density produced greater concentrations for these five chemical parameters in water samples. Meaningful equations were developed for estimating mean average yields for each chemical parameter for each watershed with R² ranging from 0.77 to 0.96 and standard error of estimates from 17 to 33 percent of the observed means.     

CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

GIS BASED LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EVALUATION FOR WATERSHED URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: To adequately manage impacts of ongoing or future land use changes in a watershed, the magnitude of their hydrologic impacts needs to be assessed. A grid based daily streamflow model was calibrated with two years of observed streamflow data, using time periods when land use data are available and verified by comparison of model predictions with observed streamflow data. Streamflow data were separated into direct runoff and baseflow to estimate the impacts of urbanization on each hydrologic component. Analysis of the ratio between direct runoff and total runoff from 30 years of simulation results and the change in these ratios with urbanization shows that estimated annual direct runoff increased from 49.2 percent (1973) to 63.1 percent (1984) and 65.0 percent (1991), indicating the effects of urbanization are greater on direct runoff than on total runoff. The direct runoff ratio also varies with annual rainfall, with dry year ratios larger than those for wet years. This suggests that the impact of urbanization on areas that are sensitive to runoff ratios, such as stream ecosystems, might be more serious during drier years than in wetter years in terms of water quality and water yield. This indicates that sustainable base‐flow is important to maintaining sound stream ecosystems.