Australian gold exploration 1976–2003

The Australian gold industry has grown enormously over the past 25 years. Australian mine production of gold in 2003 was 284 t, similar to that of the USA, and behind South Africa, the world's largest gold-producing nation. Gold is Australia's third largest commodity export, worth an estimated A$5.3 billion in 2003–2004.Underpinning the industry is a solid resource base that has grown by successful exploration over the past three decades. Australia ranks third in the world after South Africa and the USA in terms of its economic gold resources. The growth in Australia's gold resources has been underpinned by high levels of exploration and innovations in gold processing technologies, specifically the development of carbon-based gold extraction methods that allowed commercial treatment of low grade ores. It has been supported by advances in gold exploration methods, especially exploration geochemistry.New resources were added at existing deposits and new deposits were found, including several of world class (>100 t contained gold), in each decade over the 25-year-period but resource growth since the 1990s has been dominated by brownfields additions rather than new discoveries. Average costs of discovery have now plateauxed at around A$20–25/oz, after falling sharply during the early to mid-1990s when a number of new discoveries were made, notably in the Yandal belt in Western Australia and the Lachlan Fold Belt in New South Wales. Current gold reserve/production and gold EDR/production ratios are 12 and 19 years, respectively, and indicate that the long-term future of the Australian gold industry depends on continued high levels of exploration and the discovery of new deposits to replace mines that are currently being depleted.     

The Worldwide Availability of Gold

This paper summarizes Bureau of Mines research relating to the state of the world gold industry. The authors discuss the world gold industry structure, demonstrated gold resources, current production, and the long-term cost and availability of potential future gold production.
The long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MECs) is evaluated. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from the evaluated mines and deposits is estimated at 819 million troy ounces. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87% of total recoverable gold. The USA and Canada account for 4% and 4.5% of the total, respectively. Eighty-three per cent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400 per ounce, and 70% is available at $300 per ounce. South Africa accounts for 90% of the gold available at $400 per ounce or less. Gold resources in the Soviet Union and China are discussed but not evaluated for costs of production. Some conclusions of the analyses are that South Africa should remain the largest world producer until the year 2000 and annual MEC output in the year 2000 should not be significantly different from current output, given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300 per ounce.     

Exploration and discovery of Australia's copper,nickel, lead and zinc resources 1976–2005

Examination of copper, nickel, lead and zinc (base metals) exploration expenditure and discovery in Australia over the period 1976–2005 reveals some significant trends. Australia's base metal resource inventory grew substantially as a consequence of successful exploration over the period, both through addition of resources at known deposits and new discoveries, notably a small number of very large deposits that underpin the resource base. In 2005, Australia had the world's largest economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of nickel, lead and zinc, and the second largest EDR of copper. Growth in nickel resources has been especially strong owing to discovery of large laterite resources in the late 1990s. Resource life, in average terms based on current EDR and production, is approximately 30 years for lead and zinc, 40 years for nickel sulphide (120 years for all nickel EDR) and 50 years for copper. Despite this success, major increases in production over the period (copper, nickel and zinc output increasing 3–4 fold, lead output doubling) and a fall in discovery rates during much of the 1990s means that resource life for lead and zinc is lower and nickel sulphide comparable now to that in 1976; only the resource life of copper has grown substantially over the period. Current published ore reserves are sufficient for at least 15 years operations at current production levels, but only a small number of the largest deposits currently being mined are likely to still be in production in 20 years. However, several mines have substantial inferred resources that may allow production beyond current mine reserves and there is a substantial number of undeveloped deposits that may provide the foundation for extended or new mining operations. The discovery record is strongly cyclical with resource growth for all the base metals punctuated by the discovery of giant (world-class) deposits each decade: these underpin current and future production. Recent higher metal prices and renewed interest in base metals, especially nickel, has reversed a 10 year decline in base metal exploration attended by reduced rates of discovery and resulted in record expenditure, new nickel, copper and zinc discoveries, and increased resources at a number of existing deposits, notably the Olympic Dam copper–uranium–gold deposit. With the exception of the Prominent Hill copper–gold and West Musgrave nickel–copper deposits, most of the recent discoveries, especially zinc (-lead) deposits, are of small tonnage (some of high grade). Nevertheless, these new discoveries have helped stimulate further exploration and also highlight the potential for further discoveries in little-explored provinces, especially those under regolith and shallow sedimentary cover.     

Gold demand and supply

Western mine production of gold has been declining in the past five years — at the same time as the price of gold has risen dramatically. Predictions of a continued high demand for gold and the current US interest in adopting some form of ‘gold standard’ have focused attention on the supply of new gold. This paper discusses the structure of gold supply and demand, the present pattern of production of new gold and the possible effect of future price changes on Western gold mine production in the 1980s.     

International coal prices

The place coal will occupy among the world's energy supplies depends on many factors, including its price trends. This paper reviews recent price trends and supports the thesis that future coal prices are independent of oil prices, and that they will fluctuate between two limits which are based on production and transport costs in the USA and Australia.     

The investment climate for gold mining

This analysis compares the gold mining industry investment climate in the USA to the investment climate in Australia. These two major gold producing nation's industries share many similarities; in both the USA and Australia, there is evidence of a maturing gold mining industry. Each country has experienced a dramatic increase in gold production and, more recently, greater mining of refractory ore and development of more underground operations. In the 1980s both nations experienced a pronounced rationalization trend that consolidated some gold producing operations and eliminated others. Each country commands a disproportionately large share of exploration expenditures. Land access, a major concern in the USA, has also become a critical issue in Australia as well. For all their similarities, however, the two countries have differences that are significant enough to influence mining company investment decisions. This paper explores those differences and how they may affect the future course of these nations' gold mining industries. Both effective government policy making and corporate strategic planning will occupy a major role in the future course of the two nations' gold mining industries .     

Net value royalties : Practical tool or economist's illusion?

The petroleum industry has traditionally generated substantial revenues for governments. Where governmental power is divided, as in federations like Canada and Australia, a junior level of government normally collects royalties while the senior level levies a variety of imposts (income tax, export duties, excises on production). The combination of recent sharp reductions in prices, more price volatility and an era of freer markets has subjected existing tax and royalty systems to severe strain and has shifted attention to the design of fiscal systems that are more profit- sensitive. For the royalty element, interest focuses on net value royalties (NVRs). This paper deals with the nature and problems of NVRs. It proceeds by looking first at the application of resource rent royalties in Australia. It then focuses on recent megaproject royalty arrangements in Alberta and evaluates the degree to which Alberta's current royalty system is profit- sensitive. Problems associated with NVRs are discussed in the fourth section; concluding remarks are made in the last section.     

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

A process model to estimate the cost of industrial scale biodiesel production from waste cooking oil by supercritical transesterification

This paper describes the conceptual design of a production process in which waste cooking oil is converted via supercritical transesterification with methanol to methyl esters (biodiesel).Since waste cooking oil contains water and free fatty acids, supercritical transesterification offers great advantage to eliminate the pre-treatment capital and operating cost.A supercritical transesterification process for biodiesel continuous production from waste cooking oil has been studied for three plant capacities (125,000; 80,000 and 8000 tonnes biodiesel/year). It can be concluded that biodiesel by supercritical transesterification can be scaled up resulting high purity of methyl esters (99.8%) and almost pure glycerol (96.4%) attained as by-product.The economic assessment of the biodiesel plant shows that biodiesel can be sold at US$ 0.17/l (125,000 tonnes/year), US$ 0.24/l (80,000 tonnes/year) and US$ 0.52/l for the smallest capacity (8000 tonnes/year).The sensitive key factors for the economic feasibility of the plant are: raw material price, plant capacity, glycerol price and capital cost.Overall conclusion is that the process can compete with the existing alkali and acid catalyzed processes.Especially for the conversion of waste cooking oil to biodiesel, the supercritical process is an interesting technical and economical alternative.     

Global trends in gold mining: Towards quantifying environmental and resource sustainability

In recent years, due to public concern over perceived and actual environmental impacts, the global mining industry has been moving towards a more sustainable framework. For gold mining, there are a number of fundamental issues with regard to assessing sustainability. Commonly perceived as a finite and non-renewable resource, long-term gold production trends include declining ore grades and increasing solid wastes (tailings, waste rock) and open cut mining. Conversely, core sustainability issues include water, energy and chemical consumption and pollutant emissions—also known as ‘resource intensity’. It is important to recognise the links between gold production trends and resource intensity, as this is critical for understanding future sustainability challenges. This paper links data sets on historic gold mining production trends with emerging sustainability reporting to estimate resource intensity, demonstrating the sensitivity of ore grade for gold production and sustainability. Final judgement of the sustainability of gold mining must take account of the sensitivity of the ore grade in the resource intensity of gold production. This has implications for environmental policy and sustainability reporting in the gold mining sector.     

Optimisation of rainwater tank design from large roofs: A case study in Melbourne, Australia

Rainwater tanks for larger roof areas need optimisation of tank size, which is often not carried out before installation of these tanks. This paper presents a case study of rainwater tank evaluation and design for large roof areas, located in Melbourne, Australia, based on observed daily rainfall data representing three different climatic regimes (i.e. dry average, and wet years). With the aim of developing a comprehensive Decision Support Tool for the performance analysis and design of rainwater tanks, a simple spreadsheet based daily water balance model is developed using daily rainfall data, contributing roof area, rainfall loss factor, available storage volume, tank overflow and irrigation water demand. In this case study, two (185 m³ and 110 m³) underground rainwater tanks are considered. Using the developed model, effectiveness of each tank under different climatic scenarios are assessed. The analysis shows that both the tanks are quite effective in wet and average years, however less effective in dry years. A payback period analysis of the tanks is preformed which reveals that the total construction cost of the tanks can be recovered within 15-21 years time depending on tank size, climatic conditions and future water price increase rates. For the tanks, a relationship between water price increase rates and payback periods is developed. The study highlights the need for detailed optimisation and financial analysis for large rainwater tanks to maximise the benefits.     

Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?

This paper assesses the role of gold as a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements. We use an approach based on copulas to analyse the dependence structure between these two markets. Empirical evidence for weekly data from January 2000 to September 2011 revealed the following: (a) there is positive and significant average dependence between gold and oil, which would indicate that gold cannot hedge against oil price movements; and (b) there is tail independence between the two markets, indicating that gold can act as an effective safe haven against extreme oil price movements. These results are useful for both portfolio risk managers and designers of policies aimed at using gold to preserve or stabilise oil exporter purchasing power.     

The consequences of land use change on nutrient exports: a regional scale assessment in south-west Victoria, Australia

Estimation of nutrient load production based on multi-temporal remotely sensed land use data for the Glenelg-Hopkins region in south-west Victoria, Australia, is discussed. Changes in land use were mapped using archived Landsat data and computerised classification techniques. Land use change has been rapid in recent history with 16% of the region transformed in the last 22 years. Total nitrogen and phosphorus loads were estimated using an export coefficient model. The analysis demonstrates an increase in modelled nitrogen and phosphorus loadings from 1980 to 2002. Whilst such increases were suspected from past anecdotal and ad-hoc evidence, our modelling estimated the magnitude of such increases and thus demonstrated the enormous potential of using remote sensing and GIS for monitoring regional scale environmental processes.     

Nitrate leaching and nitrogen recovery following application of polyolefin-coated urea to potato

High N fertilizer and irrigation amounts applied to potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) on coarse-textured soils often result in nitrate (NO3) leaching and low recovery of applied fertilizer N. This 3-yr study compared the effects of two rates (140 and 280 kg N ha(-1)) of a single polyolefin-coated urea (PCU) application versus split applications of urea on 'Russet Burbank' potato yield and on NO3 leaching and N recovery efficiency (RE) on a loamy sand. Standard irrigation was applied in all years and excessive irrigation was used in another experiment in the third year. At the recommended rate of 280 kg N ha(-1), NO3 leaching during the growing season was 34 to 49% lower with PCU than three applications of urea. Under standard irrigation in the third year, leaching from five applications of urea (280 kg N ha(-1)) was 38% higher than PCU. Under leaching conditions in the first year (> or = 25 mm drainage water in at least one 24-h period) and excessive irrigation in the third year, PCU at 280 kg N ha(-1) improved total and marketable tuber yields by 12 to 19% compared with three applications of urea. Fertilizer N RE estimated by the difference and 15N isotope methods at the 280 kg N ha(-1) rate was, on average, higher with PCU (mean 50%) than urea (mean 43%). Fertilizer N RE values estimated by the isotope method (mean 51%) were greater than those estimated by the difference method (mean 47%). Results from this study indicate that PCU can reduce leaching and improve N recovery and tuber yield during seasons with high leaching.     

Non-South African ferrochrome prospects

In 1990, South Africa accounted for 43% of the 2 405 000t of ferrochrome produced worldwide. Even though world production has been very close to that level for more than five years, there is still approximately 1 million tlyear of excess capacity in the world today. Despite that huge overhang, when capacity closures are deducted from capacity additions, there was a net increase in capacity of approximately 450 000 t/year during the period 1989–91. Some of this additional capacity is intended to serve a domestic market and some to take advantage of very low production costs. Nevertheless, with so much excess capacity, the price of ferrochrome will remain under pressure for some time to come.     

我国城市生活垃圾回收利用率测算及其统计数据收集对策

我国将生活垃圾分类收集定位为重要民生工程和生态文明建设的工作内容,并对实施生活垃圾强制分类的示范城市明确提出了"生活垃圾回收利用率"的绩效考核目标。由于城市生活垃圾处理和再生资源回收利用由不同职能部门负责管理,不同来源的生活垃圾回收利用统计数据未有效整合,目前还缺乏我国城市生活垃圾回收利用率指标测算的相关研究。本文界定了"生活垃圾回收利用率"的科学内涵,并以城市建设、再生资源利用等统计资料和物质流分析文献为基础,初步测算了全国尺度的城市生活垃圾回收利用率。研究表明,我国2006—2015年的城市生活垃圾回收利用率从12.1%上升至17.0%,然后又缓慢下降至15.6%,由于数据缺乏,该数值可能在-28%~+32%波动。生活垃圾中回收利用量较大的可再生资源分别为废纸、废塑料、废钢铁、废玻璃等。本文还分析了目前测算生活垃圾回收利用率的数据不确定性和局限性,提出了面向生活垃圾分类管理实际评价的统计数据收集对策。     

Management of used lead acid battery in China: Secondary lead industry progress,policies and problems

The amount of used lead acid batteries rises along with the rapid development of battery manufacture in China. The battery manufacture and recycling industry has developed sharply in these recent 5 years. The annual production of secondary lead from used lead acid batteries in China increased rapidly to 1.5 million tonnes (MT) in 2013, making china the world's largest secondary lead producer. Secondary lead enterprises are mainly located in the middle and eastern regions of China, with a legal production capacity of 3 MT/year. Environmental pollution problems began to happen frequently from 2009. After 2011, the government began to put in efforts to promote pollution control, eliminate outdated production capacity, support advanced production and technology innovation research, and has achieved remarkable results. However, the main existing problems are that the proportion of secondary lead production is only 30% of the total lead production, no formal recycling network has been established and the overall level of industrial technology and equipment is outdated. Compared with developed countries, this paper predicts that, secondary proportion will reach 44% in 2015 and 60% in 2028. Finally some countermeasures are given to the recycling mode and technology promotion.     

淄博市空气污染物变化及其与气象条件的关系

近年来淄博市由于加强了对二氧化硫和粉尘等污染物排放企业脱硫除尘的监管,可吸入颗粒物和二氧化硫浓度呈现逐年下降趋势,而燃煤量和机动车保有量的逐年增加使氮氧化物浓度呈现波动式上升趋势;四季分明的气候条件使淄博市的空气污染程度在一、四季度高于二、三季度;同时污染物浓度和风速、湿度呈负相关,和温度、气压呈正相关。     

Capture-ready coal plants—Options,technologies and economics

This paper summarizes the spectrum of options that can be employed during the initial design and construction of pulverized coal (PC), and integrated gasification and combined cycle (IGCC) plants to reduce the capital costs and energy losses associated with retrofitting for CO₂ capture at some later time in the future. It also estimates lifetime (40 year) net present value (NPV) costs of plants with differing levels of pre-investment for CO₂ capture under a wide range of CO₂ price scenarios. Three scenarios are evaluated—a baseline supercritical PC plant, a baseline IGCC plant and an IGCC plant with pre-investment for capture. This analysis evaluates each technology option under a range of CO₂ price scenarios and determines the optimum year of retrofit, if any. The results of the analysis show that a baseline PC plant is the most economical choice under low CO₂ prices, and IGCC plants are preferable at higher CO₂ prices (e.g., an initial price of about $22/t CO₂ starting in 2015 and growing at 2%/year). Little difference is seen in the lifetime NPV costs between the IGCC plants with and without pre-investment for CO₂ capture. This paper also examines the impact of technology choice on lifetime CO₂ emissions. The difference in lifetime emissions become significant only under mid-estimate CO₂ price scenarios (roughly between $20 and 40/t CO₂) where IGCC plants will retrofit sooner than a PC plant.     

Sustainability under siege: Transport costs and corruption on West Africa's trade corridors

We use recent data on transport costs in West Africa, including the added burden of bribes and enforced delays, to show how such costs represent a deterrent to investment in — and therefore the sustainability of — agricultural assets. We focus on data for two important tree crops in West Africa, cashew and shea. We also have data for the transport of onions between Niger and the urban market in Accra, Ghana. Our data allow us to predict plausible increases in farm‐gate prices from a reduction in transport costs and bribes. A 10% reduction in the total transport costs (actual costs plus corruption costs) of onions from Niger could result in a 12‐13% price increase to onion farmers. Similar elasticities are 2% for cashew in Ghana and 7% for shea in Mali. These feasible price increases would encourage farmers to improve onion production, and to protect and improve production from cashew and shea trees, thereby enhancing the sustainability of agro‐forestry in West Africa. We call these price increases the “sustainability dividend”.