A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.     

Trend der Schwermetall-Bioakkumulation 1990 bis 2005: Qualitätssicherung bei Probenahme, Analytik, geostatistischer Auswertung

Background, aim and scope Since 1990, the UN ECE Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys provide data inventories of the atmospheric heavy metal bioaccumulation across national boundaries in Europe. The results prove how air pollution control in Germany and in all of Europe affected the bioaccumulation of metals in those ecosystems that are not directly influenced by nearby emission sources. This article focuses on the assessment of spatiotemporal patterns of the metal bioaccumulation in Germany since 1990. Furthermore, the spatial variance of the metal bioaccumulation is analysed with regard to sampling site-specific and regional land characteristics. Special focus hereby relies on the correlation of the metal concentration in mosses and in depositions. Hence, the moss surveys contribute to §?12 of the German Federal Nature Conservation Act as well as to the “Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution” (CLRTAP). Materials and methods The bioaccumulation of up to 40 trace elements in mosses was determined according to a European wide harmonised methodology. The according experimental protocol regulates the selection of sampling sites and moss species, the chemical analysis and quality control and the classification of the measured values for the mapping of spatial patterns. In Germany all sampling sites were described with regard to topographical and ecological criteria as well as other aspects seen as relevant in the mandatory guideline. Together with the measurements this metadata was combined with other information regarding emissions and land use in the surroundings of the sampling sites in the WebGIS MossMet. The spatial structure of the metal bioaccumulation was analysed and modeled by variogram analyses and then mapped by applying different kriging techniques. Furthermore, different multi-metal indices (MMI) were derived for both the sampling sites and raster maps with the help of percentile statistics: The MMI1990 aggregates the data for Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn determined in 1990. The MMI1995, MMI2000, MMI2005 furthermore include As, Cd, Hg and Sb for 1995, 2000 and 2005, respectively. Two other MMI allow for a time integrating view on the metal bioaccumulation in Germany: The MMI1990–2005 was calculated on behalf of all measured/geostatistically estimated data for Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn. Therefore the integrated assessment of the metal bioaccumulation in Germany from 1990 to 2005 is possible. The MMI1995–2005 furthermore includes the element-specific data of As, Cd, Hg and Sb therefore integrating 12 elements over the last three surveys. The statistical association of the metal bioaccumulation, site-specific characteristics as well as information on land use and emissions was analysed by bivariate correlation analysis and multivariate decision tree models (Classification and Regression Trees – CART, Chisquare Automatic Interaction Detection – CHAID). Results The results of the quality-controlled chemical analyses show a significant decrease of the metal bioaccumulation in Germany from 1990 to 2000. From 2000 to 2005 a further decrease can be stated for Hg, Pb and Ti. However, a significant increase for Cd, Cr, Cu, Sb and Zn can be observed. This especially holds true for Cr (+ 160?%) that almost reaches as high concentrations in mosses as in 1990. In 2005, the metal loads in mosses, except for Cr, show spatial distributions similar to those in 1990, 1995 and 2000. Hot spots are mostly found in the urbanised and industrially influenced Ruhr Area, the densely populated Rhine–Main region and in the industrially influenced regions of former East Germany (e.?g. Halle–Leipzig region). The spatial variance of the metal bioaccumulation can mainly be explained by site-specific (moss species, canopy drip effects) and site-surrounding (land use, depositions, emissions) characteristics. Discussion High Cr loads in mosses were also registered in other European countries like in Switzerland. Further investigation is therefore necessary to investigate whether this is due to different emission conditions or biogenic effects (e.?g. as a result of increasing nitrogen depositions). Compared to other environmental monitoring and modelling programmes the moss surveys registered increasing concentrations of toxic metal elements between 1990 and 2005. Contrary to deposition measurements that exhibit a higher temporal resolution the moss surveys provide measurement data on a wide range of elements. Some of these elements are important with regard to human-toxicological aspects (e.?g. Hg, Sb, As, Al, V). The standardised biomonitoring of atmospheric pollution by mosses is an important link between the technical acquisition of depositions and the accumulation in biological material. To claim that the element concentrations in mosses and in the deposition should correlate to a high degree is not appropriate since both approaches are physically related but are not identical. The degree of correlation thereby depends on the boundary conditions of the physical processes, like regional and site-specific meteorological conditions within the accumulation period, the vertical and horizontal vegetation structure or land use conditions. Conclusions The moss surveys contribute to the heavy metal and multi-component model of CLRTAP because they prove on different spatial scales how air pollution control influences the accumulation of emitted substances in environmental subjects of protection like vegetation. If environmental monitoring is seen as a continuous task and the applied methodology works well as an early warning system then environmental policy is enabled to act in preventative sense and to pursue unexpected developments. No other environmental monitoring programme provides such a wide range of ecotoxically relevant elements measured as spatially dense as the case for the moss surveys. The spatial distribution of environmental information is an essential criterion for their usability in terms of political measures for the federal states and the federation. Recommendations and perspectives The Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys are a positive example for environmental monitoring activities reaching across three spatial and administrative levels: regional (e.?g. federal state or natural landscape), nationwide (e.?g. Germany) and continental (e.?g. Europe). In Germany the harmonised and quality-controlled moss data are made available via an internet-based webGIS portal. Therefore the moss data may easily be accessed for environmental monitoring purposes and the control of environmental political actions. Hence, the monitoring of Heavy Metals by Mosses Surveys is an important task among the European environmental observations, which should be continued in future for scientific and political reasons in its current extent.     

Use of ambiguous detections to improve estimates from species distribution models

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.     

Bioakkumulation von Metallen und Stickstoff zwischen 1990 und 2005 in Niedersachsen

Background, aim, and scope Since 1990 the UN ECE Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys provide data inventories of the atmospheric heavy metal bioaccumulation across Europe. In the survey 2005 the nitrogen accumulation was measured for the first time in most of the participating countries. In Germany, the surveys were conducted in close cooperation of the relevant authorities of both the Federal Republic and the sixteen states. Therefore, statistical evaluations of the moss survey data with regard to the whole German territory and single federal states are of interest. This article concentrates on Lower Saxony, dealing with the mapping of the spatiotemporal trends of metal accumulation from 1990 to 2005, the spatial patterns of nitrogen accumulation in 2005, and the spatial variability of bioaccumulation due to characteristics of the sampling sites and their surroundings. Materials and methods The bioaccumulation of up to 40 trace elements and nitrogen in mosses was determined according to a Europe-wide harmonised methodology. The according experimental protocol regulates the selection of sampling sites and moss species, the chemical analysis and quality control and the classification of the measured values for mapping spatial patterns. In Lower Saxony all sampling sites were described with regard to topographical and ecological characteristics and several criteria to be fulfilled according to the guideline. Together with the measurements this metadata was combined with other information regarding land use in the surroundings of the sampling sites in the WebGIS MossMet. The spatial structure of the metal bioaccumulation was analysed and modelled by variogram analyses and then mapped by applying different Kriging techniques. Furthermore, multi metal indices (MMI) were derived for both the sampling sites and raster maps with help of percentile statistics: The MMI_1990–2005 was calculated for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn. The statistical association of the metal and nitrogen bioaccumulation, site specific characteristics as well as information on land use and emissions was analysed by bivariate nonparametric correlation analysis, contingency tables and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Results The results of the quality controlled chemical analyses shows a significant decrease of the metal bioaccumulation in Germany from 1990 to 2000 for all elements but Zn. From 2000 to 2005 a further significant decrease can be stated for Cd, Hg and Pb, to most parts non significant increases can be observed for Cr, Cu, Fe, Sb and Zn. Cr thereby exhibits the highest accumulation in 2005 when compared to the results of 1990, 1995 and 2000. The MMI illustrates the temporal trend of the metal bioaccumulation as a whole: From 1990 to 2000 a continuous significant decrease can be observed. From 2000 to 2005 the median of the MMI increases, again significantly, from 3.4 to 4. The N concentration in mosses in Lower Saxony reaches from 1.1 to 1.9?% in dry mass. High N concentrations were detected in agriculturally intensively used areas. Highly significant bivariate correlations between the metal bioaccumulation and land use in the surroundings of the sampling sites were found reaching from 0.3 to 0.5. Other location criteria with similar correlation coefficients/Cramér’s V are moss species, altitude, distance to the North and Baltic Sea and the distance of the sampling site to the nearest tree crown. N only shows negative correlations to urban land use and the distance to the nearest tree. Exemplified for Sb multivariate correlations were furthermore detected by CART. It could be shown that the Sb bioaccumulation interacts with the moss species and the ratio of agriculture, forests and urban areas around the sampling site. Discussion The decrease of the continuously decrease of heavy metals reflects the improving air quality in the past 15 years. Compared to other environmental monitoring and modelling programmes the moss surveys registered increasing concentrations of toxic metal elements between 1990 and 2005, e.?g. Cr. High Cr loads in mosses were also registered in other European countries like in Switzerland. Further investigations are therefore necessary to investigate whether this is due to different emission conditions or biogenic effects (e.?g. as a result of increasing nitrogen depositions). Contrary to deposition measurements that exhibit a higher temporal resolution the moss surveys provide measurement data on a wide range of elements. Some of these elements are important with regard to human-toxicological aspects (e.?g. As, Al, Hg, Sb, V). Due to its ecotoxicological relevance nitrogen was monitored in the European moss survey 2005 for the first time. Compared to the metals regionally high emissions of nitrogen compounds into the atmosphere can be detected in Lower Saxony. The standardised biomonitoring of atmospheric pollution with mosses is an important link between the technical acquisition of depositions and the accumulation in biological material. To claim that the element concentrations in mosses should correlate to a high degree with measured or modelled depositions is not appropriate since these approaches are considering different biological or physical receptors. Nevertheless, the accumulation of air pollutants in terricolous mosses reflects the degree of air pollution which is permanently deposited and affects the system of plants and soils. The degree of correlation thereby depends on the boundary conditions of the physical processes, like regional and site-specific meteorological conditions within the accumulation period, the vertical and horizontal vegetation structure or land use conditions. Conclusions The moss surveys contribute to the heavy metal and the multi-component-model of CLRTAP because they prove on different spatial scales how air pollution control influences the accumulation of emitted substances in environmental subjects of protection like vegetation incl. arable crops. If environmental monitoring is seen as a continuous task and the applied methodology works well as an early warning system then environmental policy is enabled to act in preventative sense and to pursue unexpected developments. No other environmental monitoring programme provides such a wide range of ecotoxicologically relevant elements measured as spatially dense as the case for the moss surveys. The spatial distribution of environmental information is an essential criterion for their usability in terms of political measures for the federal states and the federation. Recommendations and perspectives Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys are a positive example for environmental monitoring activities reaching across three spatial and administrative levels: regional (e.?g. federal state or natural landscape), nation wide (e.?g. Germany) and continental (e.?g. Europe). In Germany the harmonised and quality controlled moss data are made available via a WebGIS portal. Therefore the moss data may easily be accessed for environmental monitoring purposes and the control of environmental political actions. Hence, the continuous task of environmental monitoring can be met and carried on in the future.     

Raumgliederung für die Ökologische Umweltbeobachtung des Bundes und der Länder

Ecoregionalizations are important for the evaluation of monitoring networks. In this article a method is decribed concerning how to define Germany’s ecoregions by using ecological data on soil, vegetation, climate and elevation through the aid of classification and regression trees. The resulting ecoregions can be linked to metadata (parameters, methods, quality control and assurance measures) from thousands of Germany’s environmental monitoring sites. Together with GIS procedures, multivariate statistics and geostatistics, ecoregions are useful for integrating data of environmental measurements according to ecological and spatial criteria.     

Distribution patterns of plants explained by human movement behaviour

Distribution patterns of plants are affected by human activities such as creation, destruction or modification of habitats. However, another important question is to what extent humans shape plant distributions by acting as dispersal vectors. In order to answer this question we developed a simulation model for the spread of plant species between human settlements. This was done on the basis of extensive sociological and ecological data on a regional scale. With regard to the sociological data, human movement behaviour defined the amount of exchange between the settlements. Gardening types represented the potential habitat in our model. The ecological data was derived from a vegetation survey carried out in 2003, which was a repeat of a survey between 1974 and 1981 along the same transects. From these surveys, we studied the distributions of 13 species in 67 settlements. In our model, the earlier survey provided the data for the initial distribution. The simulated pattern was consequently compared with the distribution pattern in 2003. In the model, dispersal kernels based on patterns of human movement between settlements led to a better match with the distribution patterns than a null model simulating pure distance dependent dispersal for all species. This was statistically significant for seven of the thirteen species. A striking result was that alien species seem to benefit more from human dispersal than native species. We emphasize the importance of the sociological data on human movement behaviour in parameterizing our regional scale model. This study provides quantitative evidence on the impact of human movement behaviour on the distribution of plant species in suburban areas.     

Auswahl repräsentativer Standorte zur Modellierung der Ausbreitung von gentechnisch veränderten Pflanzen in Nord-Deutschland

Goal and Scope

The use of genetically modified plants (GMP) in agriculture is increasing rapidly. While GMP in North and South America are already established an extensive cultivation in Germany is yet to come. Risk assessment on possible effects of released GMP are mainly based on empirical studies with a small spatial extent (laboratories, small-scale field trials). The joint research project ‘Generic detection and extrapolation of genetically modified rape (GenEERA)’ aimed at estimating the dispersal and persistence of genetically modified oilseed rape (Brassica napus) by the use of individual based models. The objective of the article at hand is to give a detailed account of the spatial variability of climate in Northern Germany (German Federal States of Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Bremen Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg). Based on this, a method was developed that includes both, the determination of representative oilseed rapefields for modelling the dispersal of GM oilseed rape at field scale, and the subsequent generalisation of the results to landscapes.

Data and Methods

The statistically founded selection of modelling sites was performed by a compilation of available indicators within a GIS environment which are supposed to be important for the dispersal and the persistence of oilseed rape. Meteorological data on precipitation (P), air temperature (T), and sunshine duration (S) collected at up to 1,200 monitoring sites from 1961–1990 were as well as data on wind conditions (W) aggregated multivariate-statistically by Ward cluster analysis. An ecoregionalisation was used for characterising Northern Germany ecologically. Phenological data on the start of the oil seed rape bloom differentiated in the monitoring periods 1961–1990 and 1991–1999, respectively, were regionalised by performing variogram analysis and kriging interpolation. These maps were used to select appropriate Landsat images to identify rape fields by remote sensing algorithms as well as to define the respective flowering periods for individual based modelling.

Results

The separately generated P-T-S-W-Cluster were aggregated to four homogenic climatic regions. In combination with agricultural clusters defining typical landuse patterns (crop rotation, cultivation management) eight model regions were derived which describe the climatic and agronomic variations in Northern Germany. For each of these regions a representative monitoring site was selected serving for individual based modelling. At last, the modelling results were extrapolated back to the model regions applying corresponding GIS queries.

Discussion

The generated climatic regions reflect the transition of marine climate at the North Sea to continental climate in Northeast Germany. The shift in flowering of oil seed rape coincides with other studies on phenological changes of agricultural crops and wild plants.

Conclusions

Due to the huge calculation efforts and the lack of adequate land registers it was not possible to simulate the potential dispersal of GM oil seed rape at farm scale. Thus, generalisations were used to describe the variations of relevant ecological drivers affecting the dispersal of GMP. It could be shown that the aggregation of those factors to homogenic climatic regions was a successful approximation.

Recommendations and Perspectives

Due to the limited empirical data base it is necessary to validate and substantiate the modelling results by a GMP monitoring. The EU Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release of genetically modified organisms into the environment stipulates assessment of direct and indirect effects of GMP on humans and the environment by case-specific monitoring and general surveillance. It should be realised as soon as possible, since the release and the cultivation of GMP in Germany have been started, already. The monitoring should be complemented by the implementation of a web-based geoinformation system (WebGIS) which enables access to relevant geodata and monitoring data and assists in analysing possible GMP impacts.     

Anreicherung atmosphärischer Depositionen von Metallen und Stickstoff in Moosen Mecklenburg-Vorpommerns von 1990 bis 2005

Background, aim and scope Since 1990 the UN ECE Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys provide data inventories of the atmospheric heavy metal bioaccumulation across Europe. In the survey 2005 the nitrogen accumulation was measured for the first time in most of the participating countries. In Germany, the surveys were conducted in close cooperation of the relevant authorities of both the Federal Republic and the sixteen states. Therefore, statistical evaluations of the moss survey data with regard to the whole German territory and single federal states are of interest. This article concentrates on Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, dealing with the mapping of the spatiotemporal trends of metal accumulation from 1990 to 2005, the spatial patterns of nitrogen accumulation in 2005, and the spatial variability of bioaccumulation due to characteristics of the sampling sites and their surroundings. Materials and methods The bioaccumulation of up to 40 trace elements in mosses was determined according to a Europe-wide harmonised methodology. The according experimental protocol regulates the selection of sampling sites and moss species, the chemical analysis and quality control and the classification of the measured values for mapping spatial patterns. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania all sampling sites were described with regard to topographical and ecological characteristics and several criteria to be fulfilled according to the guideline. Together with the measurements this metadata was combined with other information regarding land use in the surroundings of the sampling sites in the WebGIS MossMet. The spatial structure of the metal bioaccumulation was analysed and modelled by variogram analyses and then mapped by applying different kriging techniques. Furthermore, multi metal indices (MMI) were derived for both the sampling sites and raster maps with help of percentile statistics: The MMI_1990–2005 was calculated for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn. The statistical association of the metal bioaccumulation, site specific characteristics as well as information on land use and emissions was analysed by bivariate nonparametric correlation analysis, contingency tables and Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID). Results The results of the quality controlled chemical analyses show a significant decrease of the metal bioaccumulation in Germany from 1990 to 2000 for all elements. However, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the concentrations of Cr and Zn are even significantly higher than those found in 1990. From 2000 to 2005?a further non-significant increase can be stated for As, Cu, Ni and Ti. The concentrations of Cd and Pb decreased significantly throughout all four surveys. The MMI illustrates the temporal trend of the metal bioaccumulation as a whole: After a significant decrease from 1990 to 2000 it increased significantly till 2005. The N concentration in mosses in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania reaches from 1.3 to 2.3?% in dry mass and is negatively correlated with the forest ratio in the surroundings of the moss sampling sites and to the same degree positively correlated with the area ratio of agricultural land uses. Except for Cd, Pb and Sb all metal concentrations in the mosses are negatively correlated with the forest ratio around the sampling sites. With the exception of Cr all metal concentrations are further negatively correlated with the precipitation sums of the accumulation periods. Only the Cu and Zn concentrations show no or rather a negative correlation with the tree height whereas all other elements exhibit positive correlations. Furthermore, all elements except Cr are significantly associated to the sampled moss species, the growth pattern and the frequency of occurrence of the mosses at the respective sampling sites. Exemplified for Cu multivariate correlations were furthermore detected by CHAID. It could be shown that the frequency of the mosses, the sampled moss species, the distance to motorways and the distance to the Baltic Sea are the statistically most significant boundary conditions of the Cu concentrations in the mosses sampled in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in 2005. No correlations were found between the modelled total depositions and the concentrations of Cd, Hg and Pb in the mosses at p < 0.1. For Pb in 1995?r is 0.52 at p = 0.012, for the other surveys no correlations at p < 0.05 could be found. Discussion The increase of the Cr bioaccumulation from 2000 till 2005 is particularly pronounced in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. This trend is confirmed with regional differences in the national average as well as in other participating countries like in Switzerland. Deposition measurements did not register this trend. In contrast to the UNECE area, the federal territory and several federal states no correlations were found between the modelled total depositions and the metal concentrations in the mosses. Conclusions The fact that no correlations were found between the modelled total depositions and the element concentrations in the mosses may be caused by the low spatial resolution (50?×?50?km) of the EMEP data. The moss surveys contribute to the heavy metal and the multi-component-model of CLRTAP because they prove on different spatial scales how air pollution control influences the accumulation of emitted substances in environmental subjects of protection like vegetation. In contrast to deposition measurement networks the moss monitoring identified a trend reversal in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: The continuous decrease of the metal bioaccumulation in mosses from 1990 till 2000 has changed to an increase of several metals between 2000 and 2005. This increase is significant for Cr and Zn. Recommendations and perspectives The spatial resolution of the EMEP deposition data should be enhanced based on the Europe-wide regression relationship between the element concentrations in the deposition and in the mosses. For regional studies the existing but so far not useable deposition measurement data of the federal states should be made available. It should further be investigated what caused the increase of the Cr concentrations above the level of 1990 – perhaps emissions or biogenic effects as a consequence of simultaneously increased nitrogen loads? The Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys are a positive example for environmental monitoring activities reaching across three spatial and administrative levels: regional (e.?g. federal state or natural landscape), nation wide (e.?g. Germany) and continental (e.?g. Europe). In Germany the harmonised and quality controlled moss data are made available via a WebGIS portal. Therefore the moss data may easily be accessed for environmental monitoring purposes and the control of environmental political actions. Hence, the continuous task of environmental monitoring can be met and carried on in the future. It should further be considered to expand the moss monitoring on the survey of persistent organic pollutants and apply it in human-biomonitoring. This would facilitate the acquisition of indoor and outdoor pollution with the same receptor.     

Korrelation meteorologischer und pflanzenphänologischer Indikatoren des Klimawandels

Goal and Scope

While the rise of the air temperature as part of the global climatic change seems to be widely assured, questions about the effects of this phenomenon in ecological systems get more and more interesting. In this sense this article shows by the example of monitoring sites in Baden-Württemberg the correlation of air temperature measurements with data on the phenology of selected plants.

Methods

To this end the data on air remperature and plant phenology which are gathered from spatial dislocated measurement sites were correlated by prior application of Kriging interpolation. In addition, geostatistics are ssed to analyze and cartographically depict the spatial structure of the phenology in spring and in summer.

Results and Conclusion

The statistical analysis reveals a significant relationship between the rising air temperature and the early beginning phenological phases like blooming or fruit maturation. From 1991 to 1999 spring time as indicated by phenological phases begins up to 14 days earlier than from 1961 to 1990. As proved by geostatistics, this holds true for the whole territory of Baden-Württemberg.

Recommendation and Perspective

The effects of the rise of air temperature should be examined not only by monitoring of biological individuals as for example plants, but on ecosystem level, too. The German ecosystem research and the environmental monitoring should be supplemented by the study of the effects of the climatic change in ecosystems. Because air temperature and humidity have a great influence on the temporal and spatial distribution of pathogen carriers (vectors) and pathogens mapping of the determinants of vector and pathogen distribution in space and time should be done in order to identify hot spots for risk assessment and further detailed epidemiological studies.     

Die Rolle der Globalisierung und Klimaveränderung auf die Entwicklung von Stechmücken und von ihnen übertragenen Krankheiten in Zentral-Europa

Mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases know no borders, and their spread is a consequence of globalization related to high mobility of humans and international trade as well as on climate change. Higher temperatures and precipitation favour the development of mosquitoes as well as the pathogens and parasites which are transmitted by mosquitoes. An increase of about 2?°C would shorten the time for the development of larvae and pupae of Anopheles messeae (vector of malaria) by almost three days resulting in an increase of gonotrophic cycles and number of generations. The higher numbers of breeding sites for Anopheles species such as An. plumbeus in cess pools due to the change of agricultural practises increase the contact with potential vectors of malaria as well. However, at least in Germany, malaria will not play an important role anymore. The invasion of new species such as Stegomyia albopicta (formerly Aedes albopictus) is enhanced by human migration and international trade. St. albopicta was first discovered in Germany in 2007. Nowadays, this species, originally from Southeast Asia, occurs in 13 European states. Thus, the risk for outbreaks of arboviroses is increased.     

Bewertung von diffusen Stoffeinträgen im Rahmen der nationalen Biodiversitätsstrategie

Background, aim and scope In 2007, the German government approved a national strategy on biological diversity. The strategy requires the integration of its quality targets and action targets into other policies. In addition to other pressure factors, area-wide diffuse substance discharges contribute considerably to the loss of biological diversity. Reducing these diffuse substance discharges to long-term ecologically compatible levels is one of the main action targets. This paper aims to provide an overview of preconditions for implementing this objective in terms of content as well as organization and to point out important deficits. Main focus To achieve this, the paper will discuss environmental monitoring and its implementation in Germany drawing on the targets of the national strategy on biological diversity. It will discuss the opportunities for the evaluation of the German and European biodiversity strategies using monitoring required in the execution of environmental laws and regulations as well as international substance-related indicators. Results Environmental monitoring in Germany and in Europe is characterized by a plurality of monitoring networks operated under different administrative competences and environmental sectors. Only a small part of the collected data is evaluated in a cross-media and cross-sectoral perspective even though the linking of the different data sets is technically possible. Discussion A key problem is that harmonized minimum requirements to monitor the reduction of diffuse substance discharges are missing. Without the implementation of a cooperative and harmonized monitoring approach and organizational guidelines, the reduction of diffuse substance discharges will not be verifiable. Environmental data as well as indicators are essential to evaluate the success of the national biodiversity strategy. Suitable monitoring concepts are available in the German Federal Republic and its Federal States, nevertheless, a political impulse for their implementation is missing. Recommendations and perspectives The national biodiversity strategy may reopen the discussion on the necessity of an integrated monitoring. A coordinated approach that refers both to the international indicator-discussion and to institutional obstacles and aims to develop a proposal for integrated monitoring data is necessary.     

Metallakkumulation in Moosen: Standörtliche und regionale Randbedingungen des Biomonitoring von Luftverunreinigungen

Goal and Scope

Several studies show that the concentration of metals in mosses depends not only on metal deposition but also on factors such as moss species, canopy drip, precipitation, altitude, distance to the sea and the analytical technique used. However, contrasting results have been reported and the interpretation of the spatial variability of the metal accumulation in mosses remains difficult. In the presented study existing monitoring data from the European Heavy Metals in Mosses Surveys together with surface data on precipitation, elevation and land use are statistically analysed to assess factors other than emissions that have an influence on the metal accumulation in the mosses.

Main Features

Inference statistics and Spearman correlation analysis were applied to examine the association of the metal accumulation and the distance of the monitoring sites to the sea as well as the altitude. Whether or not significant differences of the metal loads in the mosses exist at national borders was examined with help of the U-test after Mann and Whitney. In order to identify and rank the factors that are assumed to have an influence on the metal uptake of the mosses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) were applied.

Results

No clear tendency could be derived from the results of the inference statistical calculations and the correlation analyses with regard to the distance of the monitoring site to the sea and the altitude. According to the results of the CART-analyses mainly the moss species, potential emission sources around the monitoring sites, canopy drip and precipitation have an effect on the metal bioaccumulation. Assuming that each participating country followed strictly the manual for sampling and sample preparation the results of the inference statistical calculations furthermore suggest that in most cases different techniques for digestion and analysis bias the measurements significantly.

Discussion

For the first time a national monitoring data base consisting of measurement data and metadata as well as surface information on precipitation, land use and elevation was applied to examine influence factors on the metal bioaccumulation in mosses. The respective results mirror existing knowledge from other national studies to a large extend, although further analyses are necessary to affirm the findings. These analyses should include data from other national monitoring programmes and should additionally be carried out with other decision tree algorithms than CART.

Conclusions

The local variability in the metal concentration in mosses can be uncovered in terms of predictors or underlying hidden causes by using CART. Ideally, such an approach should be applied across the whole of Europe. This will only be feasible if all participating countries provide additional information about site characteristics as currently is done in for example the German moss surveys.

Recommendations

The UNECE Metals in Mosses Survey experimental protocol should be improved in order to reduce the observed influences, to enhance standardisation, and to strengthen the quality control. This implies the integration of sampling site describing metadata into the assessment. Furthermore, basis research is needed to test the hypothesis concerning moss species-specific accumulation of depositions.

Perspectives

Provided that the presented results hold true in further analyses correction factors should be applied on the moss data in order to get the depicted spatial patterns and temporal trends of metal bioaccumulation unbiased. Such factors should be calculated for natural landscape units or ecoregions that are homogeneous with regard to climate, vegetation and altitude.     

Analyzing disease risks associated with translocations

Translocations of species are expected to be used increasingly to counter the undesirable effects of anthropogenic changes to ecosystems, including loss of species. Methods to assess the risk of disease associated with translocations have been compiled in a comprehensive manual of disease-risk analysis for movement of domestic animals. We used this manual to devise a qualitative method for assessing the probability of the occurrence of disease in wild animals associated with translocations. We adapted the method such that we considered a parasite (any agent of infectious or noninfectious disease) a hazard if it or the host had crossed an ecological or geographical barrier and was novel to the host. We included in our analyses hazards present throughout the translocation pathway derived from the interactions between host immunity and the parasite, the effect of parasites on populations, the effect of noninfectious disease agents, and the effect of stressors on host-parasite interactions. We used the reintroduction of Eurasian Cranes (Grus grus) to England to demonstrate our method. Of the 24 hazards identified, 1 was classified as high risk (coccidia) and 5 were medium risk (highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, Mycobacterium avium, Aspergillus fumigatus, tracheal worms [Syngamus sp. and Cyathostoma sp.], and Tetrameres spp.). Seventeen other hazards were considered low or very low risk. In the absence of better information on the number, identity, distribution, and pathogenicity of parasites of wild animals, there is uncertainty in the risk of disease to translocated animals and recipient populations. Surveys of parasites in source and destination populations and detailed health monitoring after release will improve the information available for future analyses of disease risk. We believe our method can be adapted to assess the risks of disease in other translocated populations.     

Klimawandel und zukünftig mögliche temperaturgesteuerte Malariatransmission in Deutschland

Background, aim and scope On behalf of the Centre of Excellence for Climate Effects and Adaption (KomPass) of the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) an Expert Information System on Climate Change and Adaption (FISKA) was developed. FISKA shall provide the governmental institutions with basic information and models on climate change impacts for the development and accomplishment of adaption strategies. In this paper the impact model on potential temperature-dependent malaria transmissions is presented. It shows how, together with the REMO and WettReg climate models implemented in FISKA, areas at risk of malaria can be identified. Materials and methods FISKA was developed as an open and modular expert information system and allows the exchange of data and information with other institutions. Climate change impacts are implemented as calculation engines. The system allows for implementing additional data and impact models to improve existing impact models. For the calculation of the temperature-dependent potential secondary malaria infections the basic reproduction rate was used and the according algorithms were implemented in two calculation engines. One engine allows the calculation of the secondary infections and the other allows the calculation of the seasonal transmission gates. Measured air temperatures for the period 1961–2007 were provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD), data on future air temperatures were extracted from the climate models REMO and WettReg for the climate reference periods 1991–2020, 2021–2050, and 2051–2080. The respective secondary infections and the resulting seasonal transmission gates for each period were regionalised on the basis of an ecological land classification to analyse significant ecoregional differences. Results Comparing the climate reference period 1961–1990 and the following period 1991–2007, the proportion of Germany featuring a potential seasonal malaria transmission gate of one or rather two months has been reduced in favour of a three months transmission gate. Accordingly, in the period 1991–2007 malaria transmissions during three months are possible on 70?% of the German territory instead of 26?% in 1961–1990. The percentage of a four months transmission gate has increased from 0.02?% to 0.76?%, and even a five months transmission is possible on 0.15?% of Germany. For future periods the number of potential secondary infections increases and further extensions of the seasonal transmission gates were revealed. In case of REMO A1B in 2051–2080, almost whole Germany features thermal conditions allowing malaria transmissions during four or rather five months. Discussion Rising air temperatures lead to changes in the spatial structure of the ecological elementary factor temperature, which can, under otherwise identical conditions, facilitate the reproduction of pathogens (here Plasmodium vivax) and vectors (here Anopheles atroparvus) as well as the spread of diseases. The basic reproduction rate serves the calculation of secondary malaria infections, which are the infections of host by a vector under the assumption that every member of the host population is susceptible for the pathogen. Improved thermal conditions alone do not necessarily imply the development of a malaria epidemic. Other factors like population density or medical care and the presence of vector habitats are of major importance, however, not considered by the calculation engines. The example of malaria is intended to be a model for a range of temperature-dependent vector-borne diseases. Conclusions The impact model on temperature-dependent malaria infections shows exemplarily the information content and functionality of FISKA. Data and functionality of FISKA serve as an expert information system for the detection of risks due to climate change. The results can be published as interactive maps via the FISKA internet interface. From a technical point of view, every impact model based on a calculation engine can be implemented and published via the web interface, provided that the impact models and the resulting risk maps rely on scientific reliable assumptions and are documented comprehensively. Recommendations and perspectives An improvement of FISKA considering the European scale is technically possible. It would require the development of GIS- and model applications on the basis of Europe-wide basic and specific data. For small-scale model runs a dynamic modelling of the water balance including soil hydrology as well as consideration of microclimate effects are required.     

Bewertungsansatz von Umweltmonitoring-Informationssystemen in Ballungsräumen

Comprehensive data on environmental monitoring programs concerned with air pollutants like ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen oxide (NO), carbon dioxide (CO₂) und carbon monoxide (CO), and occassionally suspended dust, benzene and other environmental chemicals, are available on the free Internet. As different monitoring information systems exist in most states or big cities of the Federal Republic of Germany, a comparison of these systems with their pros and cons is of great interest to the public. Environmental air pollutant monitoring systems in 16 states of Germany are listed and evaluated by applying 5 evaluation criteria for the differentiation of these systems. Different data-analysis methods will be applied, the Hasse diagram technique, a method derived from discrete mathematics and the partially Ordered Scalogram Analysis with Coordinates (POSAC) method, a multivariate statistical approach. The important objects, the so-called maximal or minimal objects, are detected in both methods. The Internet-based environmental monitoring systems of the states of Berlin, Bremen, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Wurttemberg are rated good in the evaluation approaches, whereas the information systems of the states of Brandenburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony received a rather poor ranking. The attributes of DA, way of data presentation on the Internet, and ME, type and length of measurements, were pointed out in the data-analysis methods. Multivariate explorative statistical methods offer a comprehensive tool for the graphical analysis of data-matrices. The ranking of objects is given in an effective and graphically comprehensible manner using the Hasse diagram technique. The choice and preference of the methods is problem-driven. A combination of these different methods is envisaged in the authors’ future research.     

造林区生态环境监测信息系统的研究

根据林业部与世界银行达成的协议，在我国６０个县市设立世行贷款“国家造林项目”环境监测点，并对监测信息进行科学管理。本研究建立了基本情况库、水土流失监测库、监测结果汇总库、土壤肥力监测库、病虫害监测库等数据库，采用ｆｏｘＰｒｏ２．６ｆｏｒＷｉｎｄｏｗｓ程序设计语言编制监测信息管理系统，该系统由站点分布、数据维护、数据浏览、报表生态、统计分析等功能模块构成。在系统软件编制过程中，采用了图文交互支持的信息管理方式，充分利用通用字段（Ｇｅｎｅｒａｌ）的多媒体信息存储功能，且程序运行时可完全脱离ｆｏｘＰｒｏ的系统环境，在Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓ平台下独立执行。     

Klima wandel und Malaria

Goal and Scope

The coastal zones of Lower Saxony (Germany) are former malaria regions. Malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s, and subsequently related scientific investigations declined. But from that time until nowadays, the vector in the form of Anopheles mosquitoes has still been present in Lower Saxony. Thus, the question arises, whether a new autochthon transmission could take place due to the monthly mean temperatures of the recent years. Answering this question was one goal of the investigation at hand. Another one was to examine the spatial and temporal structure of potential transmissions in respect to the predicted increase of the air temperatures according to the IPCC scenarios.

Methods

Current information about anophelines and their characteristics within Germany, such as details on historical incidences, breeding preferences, longevity or distribution of the respective species, were collected by literature research. Further, measurement and incidence data had to be collected and processed: temperature values were provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), and recent findings of Anopheles were supplied by the former Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Ökologie (NLÖ) as a data bank. Then temperature maps were calculated for the three periods (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004) by means of Kriging. To model areas at risk, the transmission potential for a new vivax malaria spread in respect to temperature was computed using the Basic Reproduction Rate (R₀) formula. It provides the average number of secondary infections produced when a single infected individual is introduced into a potential host population in which each member is susceptible.

Results

The computations corroborate a climate warming between the 30-years interval from 1961 to 1990 and the period from 1985 to 2004. According to the rise of the air temperature as predicted by the IPCC scenarios, the spatial pattern of potential malaria outbreak was calculated for 2020, 2060 an 2100. To this end, for each of these years a best-case-scenario with the lowest reasonable temperature increases (+0.3°C, +0.9°C, +1.4°C) and a worst-case-scenario implying the highest plausible temperature rise (+0.9°C, +3.3°C, +5.8°C) were assumed. While in 2020 the maximum duration of the transmission risk is estimated to last four months, in 2100 the vivax transmission will be likely from May until October.

Discussion

Correlated with the higher monthly mean temperature values, the risk of a vivax transmission is increasing as temperature is the determining variable of the mathematical model. Therefore Lower Saxony is at risk of a new outbreak of vivax malaria assuming no other risk factors are of relevance.

Conclusions

The study could demonstrate that most parts of the country lie within a transmission zone with a duration of two months. The areas containing the highest risk with a transmission length of three months are located around Nordhorn and Hameln, and within the rectangle of Celle, Hannover, Helmstedt and Wolfsburg. These areas match with recent Anopheles larvae finding by the NLÖ, thus, only the pathogen is lacking for a successful transmission. And as Germany is not an endemic malaria zone, the pathogen can enter the country most likely by infected people or imported mosquitoes that transport it in their guts.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The results should be understood as a request for more comprehensive investigations in that field. This would be an essential basis for a successful risk monitoring and precautionary management. Although the chances of a new endemic malaria disease in Germany seem to be considerably low today, it would be better to be prepared than to be suddenly faced with the unexpected.