Linking gender,climate change and security in the Pacific Islands Region: A systematic review

This systematic review aims to address gaps in understanding how concepts of gender, climate change and security are given meaning and linked in empirical scholarship within the Pacific Islands Region. The review assesses the 53 articles returned through Web of Science, SCOPUS and ProQuest databases that are derived from empirical research and refer to gender, climate change and security. The findings indicate that this is an emerging topic in a region that is one of the most vulnerable to climate change across the globe. Most frequently gender analysis is given superficial treatment; there is limited literature that connects gendered vulnerabilities to historical legacies and structural inequalities; and women’s critical roles that create security are often overlooked and devalued. The review indicates that greater work is needed to question perceived threats to security and to reveal how climate change, gendered institutions, systems and spaces, historical legacies and politics interact to construct security in the Pacific Islands Region.     

Balancing Water Resources Development and Environmental Sustainability in Africa: A Review of Recent Research Findings and Applications

Sustainable development in Africa is dependent on increasing use of the continent’s water resources without significantly degrading ecosystem services that are also fundamental to human wellbeing. This is particularly challenging in Africa because of high spatial and temporal variability in the availability of water resources and limited amounts of total water availability across expansive semi-arid portions of the continent. The challenge is compounded by ambitious targets for increased water use and a rush of international funding to finance development activities. Balancing development with environmental sustainability requires (i) understanding the boundary conditions imposed by the continent’s climate and hydrology today and into the future, (ii) estimating the magnitude and spatial distribution of water use needed to meet development goals, and (iii) understanding the environmental water requirements of affected ecosystems, their current status and potential consequences of increased water use. This article reviews recent advancements in each of these topics and highlights innovative approaches and tools available to support sustainable development. While much remains to be learned, scientific understanding and technology should not be viewed as impediments to sustainable development on the continent.     

Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies

Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01342-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Modeling integrated urban water systems in developing countries: case study of Port Vila,Vanuatu

Developing countries struggle to provide adequate urban water services, failing to match infrastructure with urban expansion. Despite requiring an improved understanding of alternative infrastructure performance when considering future investments, integrated modeling of urban water systems is infrequent in developing contexts. This paper presents an integrated modeling methodology that can assist strategic planning processes, using Port Vila, Vanuatu, as a case study. 49 future model scenarios designed for the year 2050, developed through extensive stakeholder participation, were modeled with UVQ (Urban Volume and Quality). The results were contrasted with a 2015 model based on current infrastructure, climate, and water demand patterns. Analysis demonstrated that alternative water servicing approaches can reduce Port Vila’s water demand by 35 %, stormwater generation by 38 %, and nutrient release by 80 % in comparison to providing no infrastructural development. This paper demonstrates that traditional centralized infrastructure will not solve the wastewater and stormwater challenges facing rapidly growing urban cities in developing countries.     

Protected area designation and management in a world of climate change: A review of recommendations

Climate change is challenging conservation strategies for protected areas. To summarise current guidance, we systematically compiled recommendations from reviews of scientific literature (74 reviews fitting inclusion criteria) about how to adapt conservation strategies in the face of climate change. We focussed on strategies for designation and management of protected areas in terrestrial landscapes, in boreal and temperate regions. Most recommendations belonged to one of five dominating categories: (i) Ensure sufficient connectivity; (ii) Protect climate refugia; (iii) Protect a few large rather than many small areas; (iv) Protect areas predicted to become important for biodiversity in the future; and (v) Complement permanently protected areas with temporary protection. The uncertainties and risks caused by climate change imply that additional conservation efforts are necessary to reach conservation goals. To protect biodiversity in the future, traditional biodiversity conservation strategies should be combined with strategies purposely developed in response to a warming climate.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01779-z.     

Opinions of 12 to 13-year-olds in Austria and Australia on the concern,cause and imminence of climate change

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country’s adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01356-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Inferring chemical effects on carbon flows in aquatic food webs: Methodology and case study

The majority of ecotoxicological enclosure experiments monitor species abundances at different chemical concentrations. Here, we present a new modelling approach that estimates changes in food web flows from such data and show that population- and food web level effects are revealed that are not apparent from abundance data alone. For the case of cypermethrin in freshwater enclosures, photosynthesis and excretion (d⁻¹) of phytoplankton at 3.643 μg L⁻¹ cypermethrin were 30% lower and 100% higher than in the control, respectively. The ingestion rate of mesozooplankton (d⁻¹) was 6 times higher in the treated enclosures than in the control as food concentration increased with insecticide exposure. With increasing cypermethrin concentrations, nanoflagellates progressively relied on phytoplankton as their main food source, which rendered the food web less stable. We conclude that this tool has excellent potential to analyse the wealth of enclosure data as it only needs species abundance and general constraints.     

Sustaining food self-sufficiency of a nation: The case of Sri Lankan rice production and related water and fertilizer demands

Rising human demand and climatic variability have created greater uncertainty regarding global food trade and its effects on the food security of nations. To reduce reliance on imported food, many countries have focused on increasing their domestic food production in recent years. With clear goals for the complete self-sufficiency of rice production, Sri Lanka provides an ideal case study for examining the projected growth in domestic rice supply, how this compares to future national demand, and what the associated impacts from water and fertilizer demands may be. Using national rice statistics and estimates of intensification, this study finds that improvements in rice production can feed 25.3 million Sri Lankans (compared to a projected population of 23.8 million people) by 2050. However, to achieve this growth, consumptive water use and nitrogen fertilizer application may need to increase by as much as 69 and 23 %, respectively. This assessment demonstrates that targets for maintaining self-sufficiency should better incorporate avenues for improving resource use efficiency.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0720-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure,sensitivity, and adaptive capacity

Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast–southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0727-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

区域贸易规划环境影响评价的研究——以云南省德宏州为例

随着中国实行更加积极主动的开放战略,越来越多的区域规划涉及贸易活动内容,贸易活动在中国推动经济增长的同时,也造成了环境压力,因此将区域贸易规划纳入环境影响评价(简称环评)制度是大势所趋。首先研究了贸易活动对环境的影响机制,通过"自由贸易→经济活动→环境影响"的链式反应分析,从规模、结构、技术效应3个方面进行环境影响途径分解;探讨了区域贸易规划环评的工作流程;其次,根据贸易对环境影响效应理论,提出区域贸易规划的环评方法;最后,以《云南瑞丽重点开发开放试验区建设总体规划》的德宏州贸易规划环评为案例,进行了实证研究。该研究可为中国未来区域贸易规划环评提供一定指导与借鉴。     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.     

Long series relationships between global interannual CO2 increment and climate: evidence for stability and change in role of the tropical and boreal-temperate zones

Interannual variability in global CO₂ increment (averaged from the Mauna Loa and South Pole Stations) shows certain strong spatial relationships to both tropical and temperate temperatures. There is a fairly strong positive year-round correlation between tropical mean annual temperatures (leading by 4 months) and annual CO₂ throughout the time series since 1960, agreeing with the generally held view that the tropics play a major role in determining inter-annual variability in CO₂ increment, with a major CO₂ pulse following a warm year in the tropics. This ‘almost no lag’ climatic response is very strong during winter and relatively stable in time. However, the correlation with tropical temperature appears to have weakened in the first years of the 1990s in correspondence of the Pinatubo eruption and the positive phase of the AO/NAO. A secondary concurrent temperature signal is linked to summer variations of north temperate belt. Northern summer temperatures in the region 30–60 °N—and especially in the land area corresponding to the central east USA—have become relatively more closely correlated with CO₂ increment. This trend has become increasingly stronger in recent years, suggesting an increasing role for growing season processes in the northern midlatitudes in affecting global CO₂ increment. Once non-lagged annual tropical temperature variations are accounted for, terrestrial ecosystems, especially the temperate-boreal biomes, also show a coherent large scale lagged response. This involves an inverse response to annual temperature of preceding years centered at around 2 years before. This lagged response is most likely linked to internal biogeochemical cycles, in particular N cycling. During the study period north boreal ecosystems show a strengthening of the lagged correlation with temperature in recent years, while the lagged correlation with areas of tropical ecosystems has weakened. Residuals from a multiple correlations based on these climatic signals are directly correlated with SO, confirming an additional important role of upwelling in interannual variability of CO₂ increment. Cooler summers following the Pinatubo eruption and the possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO/AO) are discussed as factors responsible for the shift in the relative importance of different regions over time during the series of data.     

Omega-3 nutraceuticals,climate change and threats to the environment: The cases of Antarctic krill and Calanus finmarchicus

The nutraceutical market for EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid) and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) is promoting fishing for Euphasia superba (Antarctic krill) in the Southern Ocean and Calanus finmarchicus in Norwegian waters. This industry argues that these species are underexploited, but they are essential in their ecosystems, and climate change is altering their geographical distribution. In this perspective, we advocate the cessation of fishing for these species to produce nutraceuticals with EPA and DHA. We argue that this is possible because, contrary to what this industry promotes, the benefits of these fatty acids only seem significant to specific population groups, and not for the general population. Next, we explain that this is desirable because there is evidence that these fisheries may interact with the impact of climate change. Greener sources of EPA and DHA are already available on the market, and their reasonable use would ease pressure on the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.     

Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95?% of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73?% of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.     

A photovoice assessment for illuminating the role of inland fisheries to livelihoods and the local challenges experienced through the lens of fishers in a climate-driven lake of Malawi

Small-scale inland capture fisheries provide an important source of nutritious food, employment and income to millions of people in developing countries, particularly in rural environments where limited alternatives exist. However, the sector is one of most under-valued fisheries sectors and is increasingly experiencing environmental change. This study adopts a Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and investigates how important a fluctuating inland fishery is to livelihoods, and how local perceptions on challenges corresponds to global evidence. Through an innovative participatory method; photovoice, the lived experiences and perceptions of fishers are depicted. The findings illuminate the valuable role of the sector to food and nutrition security and the complex nexus with vulnerability to climate change. The study responds to the call for more local level assessments of the impacts of climate change on inland fisheries in data-limited environments, and the value of the sector in underpinning the Sustainable Development Goals. Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01583-1.     

Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future.     

Estimating the potential of wild foods for nutrition and food security planning in tropical areas: Experimentation with a method in Northwestern Colombia

Wild foods contribute to the food security of multiple communities in tropical areas of Africa, Asia and Latin America. However, wild foods are not regularly considered in the planning of strategies for food and nutrition security mainly due to the lack of technical and/or scientific knowledge so that they can be considered suitable for human consumption. This paper proposes a multidisciplinary method that estimates the potential of wild foods as alternative resources when planning interventions in favour of food and nutrition security in tropical forest territories. When designing the method, four dimensions were identified in science, technology and innovation (STI) that define this potential as well as ten assessment criteria. The wild foods chosen for applying the method were Alibertia patinoi (a fruit commonly known as Borojó) and Proechimys semispinosus (Mouse of thorns), which are two of the main wild foods traditionally used by human communities in a tropical forest territory in the northwest of Colombia. In both cases, although there are significant advances in STI, compliance with some criteria is still required to regard them as viable alternatives for nutrition and food security within this territory. This research is useful for promoting the inclusion of wild food in food security programmes for communities where this food is already included in their traditional pattern of consumption and identifies the progress needed in STI to achieve this purpose. It may also promote the early recognition of possible traditional and cultural practices with high risk of transmission of pathogenic elements by the handling and/or inadequate consumption of wild foods. This early recognition could contribute to the prevention of diseases of wild animal origin, including those of rapid global spread.     

Relationship between heavy metals concentrations in egret species,their environment and food chain differences from two Headworks of Pakistan

Concentration of ten metals (Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Li, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) were analyzed in the egg contents, prey and soil samples of little egret (Egretta garzetta) and cattle egret (Bubulcus ibis) from two Headworks to determine habitat and species-specific differences; to assess the importance of prey and habitat contamination as an exposure source for heavy metals. Concentration of Cu, Mn, Cr and Pb in egg contents, Fe, Co, Cu, Mn, Zn in prey and Fe, Co, Cu, Ni, Li in surface soils were significantly different (P < 0.05). Mean metal concentrations of Cr, Pb and Cd were relatively higher in little egret whereas Cu and Mn were higher in the egg contents of cattle egret. The mean concentrations of Cu, Mn and Zn were higher in prey samples of cattle egrets and Cr, Cd and Pb in prey samples of little egrets. In soil samples collected from little egret heronries metal concentrations were higher except Cu and Ni. Correlation Analysis and Hierarchical Agglomerative Cluster Analysis (HACA) identified relatively similar associations of metals and their source identification. Metals such as Fe, Cu, Mn, and Li were related with geochemical origin from parent rock material as well as anthropogenic input whereas Cr, Cd, Pb, Ni, Co and Zn were associated mostly with anthropogenic activities. The study suggested that eggs are useful bio-monitor of local heavy metal contamination.     

Cold air drainage and temperature fields in an urban environment: A case study of topographical influence on climate

The effect of cold air drainage on the temperature field of Calgary's urban heat island was studied from data collected from helicopter transects and airborne surveys on 13 January 1976. It is shown that the magnitude of the urban heat island was reduced by about 40 % below its potential value and that the thickness of a ground-based inversion observed over city centre was increased by about 100m.