Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change.     

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability

We investigated the Austrian national greenhouse gas emission inventory to review the reliability and usability of such inventories. The overall uncertainty of the inventory (95% confidence interval) is just over 10% of total emissions, with nitrous oxide (N₂O) from soils clearly providing the largest impact. Trend uncertainty – the difference between 2 years – is only about five percentage points, as important sources like soil N₂O are not expected to show different behavior between the years and thus exhibit a high covariance. The result is very typical for industrialized countries – subjective decisions by individuals during uncertainty assessment are responsible for most of the discrepancies among countries. Thus, uncertainty assessment cannot help to evaluate whether emission targets have been met. Instead, a more rigid emission accounting system that allows little individual flexibility is proposed to provide harmonized evaluation uninfluenced by the respective targets. Such an accounting system may increase uncertainty in terms of greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere. More importantly, however, it will decrease uncertainty in intercountry comparisons and thus allow for fair burden sharing. Setting of post-Kyoto emission targets will require the independent evaluation of achievements. This can partly be achieved by the validation of emission inventories and thorough uncertainty assessment.     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

Comparison of first-order-decay modeled and actual field measured municipal solid waste landfill methane data

The first-order decay (FOD) model is widely used to estimate landfill gas generation for emissions inventories, life cycle assessments, and regulation. The FOD model has inherent uncertainty due to underlying uncertainty in model parameters and a lack of opportunities to validate it with complete field-scale landfill data sets. The objectives of this paper were to estimate methane generation, fugitive methane emissions, and aggregated collection efficiency for landfills through a mass balance approach using the FOD model for gas generation coupled with literature values for cover-specific collection efficiency and methane oxidation. This study is unique and valuable because actual field data were used in comparison with modeled data. The magnitude and variation of emissions were estimated for three landfills using site-specific model parameters and gas collection data, and compared to vertical radial plume mapping emissions measurements. For the three landfills, the modeling approach slightly under-predicted measured emissions and over-estimated aggregated collection efficiency, but the two approaches yielded statistically equivalent uncertainties expressed as coefficients of variation. Sources of uncertainty include challenges in large-scale field measurement of emissions and spatial and temporal fluctuations in methane flow balance components (generated, collected, oxidized, and emitted methane). Additional publication of sets of field-scale measurement data and methane flow balance components will reduce the uncertainty in future estimates of fugitive emissions.     

Comparison of Critical Load Exceedance and Its Uncertainty Based on National and Site-specific Data

Critical loads have been used to develop international agreements on acidifying air pollution abatement, and within the UK and other countries, to develop national policies for pollution abatement. The Environment Agency (England and Wales) has regulatory obligations to protect sites of high conservation value from the threat of acidification, and hence requires a practical methodology for acidification assessments at the site-specific scale. The Environment Agency has therefore posed the question: Are the national critical load exceedance models sufficiently robust to form the basis for methods to assess harm to individual sites or are they only useful for national policy development? In order to provide one measure of the appropriateness of applying the models at the site-specific scale we incorporated estimates of uncertainty in both national and site-specific data into the calculation of critical load exceedance for individual sites. The exceedance calculations use data from a wide range of sources and the accuracy of the exceedance will be influenced by the accuracy of the input data sets. Using Monte Carlo methods to incorporate the uncertainty in the input data sets into the calculation a distribution of critical load exceedance values is generated rather than a single point estimate. This paper compares uncertainty analyses for coniferous forested sites in England and Wales using both national scale and site-specific data sets and uncertainty ranges.     

Spatial GHG Inventory: Analysis of Uncertainty Sources. A Case Study for Ukraine

A geoinformation technology for creating spatially distributed greenhouse gas inventories based on a methodology provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and special software linking input data, inventory models, and a means for visualization are proposed. This technology opens up new possibilities for qualitative and quantitative spatially distributed presentations of inventory uncertainty at the regional level. Problems concerning uncertainty and verification of the distributed inventory are discussed. A Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the energy sector at the regional level is performed, and a number of simulations concerning the effectiveness of uncertainty reduction in some regions are carried out. Uncertainties in activity data have a considerable influence on overall inventory uncertainty, for example, the inventory uncertainty in the energy sector declines from 3.2 to 2.0% when the uncertainty of energy-related statistical data on fuels combusted in the energy industries declines from 10 to 5%. Within the energy sector, the ‘energy industries’ subsector has the greatest impact on inventory uncertainty. The relative uncertainty in the energy sector inventory can be reduced from 2.19 to 1.47% if the uncertainty of specific statistical data on fuel consumption decreases from 10 to 5%. The ‘energy industries’ subsector has the greatest influence in the Donetsk oblast. Reducing the uncertainty of statistical data on electricity generation in just three regions – the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk oblasts – from 7.5 to 4.0% results in a decline from 2.6 to 1.6% in the uncertainty in the national energy sector inventory.     

Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

We simulate the market for emission permits by considering uncertainty in emission inventory reports. The approach taken in this analysis is to enhance the emissions reported in each region by a certain part of their uncertainty when compliance with the Kyoto targets is being proved. While this formulation is not new in the literature, we define the uncertainty component in a way that enables comparison with the approach of effective permits presented in Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories, (this issue). We show and explain that the transformation to effective permits bears additional costs apart from those resulting from shifting the Kyoto targets.     

Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

Policy trends of e-waste management in Asia

This paper examines the policy trends of electronic waste (e-waste) management in Asia. E-waste is a rapidly growing waste stream in the world today and is estimated to be growing at 3–5 % per annum. Fast paced obsolescence in the electronic sector has resulted in the generation of e-waste. There are concerns that e-waste generated in developed countries is ending up in developing countries especially in Asia resulting in adverse environmental and health impacts. Consequently, a number of countries in Asia are developing policy instruments to ensure the proper management of e-waste. These include e-waste regulatory frameworks, data and inventories, and infrastructure and capacity building. These trends indicate a positive development path towards sustainable e-waste management in Asia. Nevertheless, potential limiting obstacles for e-waste management in Asia may also include an over-reliance on legislation to drive e-waste management or the simplistic adoption of policies from developed countries without taking into context the local political, cultural and socio-economic waste management issues. Consequently, this paper suggest that e-waste policy development may require a more customized approach where, instead of addressing e-waste in isolation, it should be addressed as part of the national development agenda that integrates green economy assessment and strategic environmental assessment as part of national policy planning. In conclusion, policy trends of e-waste management in Asia appear promising provided there is a paradigm shift from an e-waste perception of an environment problem to a e-waste perception of a potential opportunity as sustainable national green growth strategy in Asia.     

Greenhouse gases accounting and reporting for waste management – A South African perspective

This paper investigates how greenhouse gases are accounted and reported in the waste sector in South Africa. Developing countries (including South Africa) do not have binding emission reduction targets, but many of them publish different greenhouse gas emissions data which have been accounted and reported in different ways. Results show that for South Africa, inventories at national and municipal level are the most important tools in the process of accounting and reporting greenhouse gases from waste. For the development of these inventories international initiatives were important catalysts at national and municipal levels, and assisted in developing local expertise, resulting in increased output quality. However, discrepancies in the methodology used to account greenhouse gases from waste between inventories still remain a concern. This is a challenging issue for developing countries, especially African ones, since higher accuracy methods are more data intensive. Analysis of the South African inventories shows that results from the recent inventories can not be compared with older ones due to the use of different accounting methodologies. More recently the use of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) procedures in Africa, geared towards direct measurements of greenhouse gases from landfill sites, has increased and resulted in an improvement of the quality of greenhouse gas inventories at municipal level.     

Time-series product and substance flow analyses of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment in China

Given the amounts of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment (EoL-EEE) being generated and their contents of both harmful and valuable materials, the EoL-EEE issue should be regarded not only as an emerging environmental problem but also as a resource management strategy in China. At present, in order to provide the basis for managing EoL-EEE at both product and substance levels in China, it is necessary to carry out a quantitative analysis on EoL-EEE and to determine how much of it will be generated and how much materials and substances it contains. In this study, the possession and obsolescence amounts of five types of household appliance (HA) including television (TV) sets and the amounts of substances contained in EoL TV sets were estimated using time-series product flow analysis (PFA) and substance flow analysis (SFA). The results of PFA indicated that the total possession amounts of those five types of HAs will exceed 3.1 billion units in 2030, which will be two times higher than those in 2010. In addition, it was estimated that cumulatively over 4.8–5.1 billion units of these five types of EoL HA would be obsoleted between 2010–2030. The results of SFA on TV sets indicated that the generated amounts of most of the less common metals and a part of common metals such as copper (Cu) would tend to decrease, whereas those of other common metals such as iron (Fe) as well as precious metals would tend to increase in EoL TV sets in 2015–2030. The results of this study provide a quantitative basis for helping decision makers develop strategic policies for the management of EoL-EEE considering both environmental and resource aspects. Moreover, a calculation scheme of obsolete HAs presented in this study can be applied to estimate other types of EoL durable good. Meanwhile, the frameworks of this study will help not only the policy decision makers in the Chinese government but also those in developing countries that are facing similar problems.     

Analysis of potential for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in municipal solid waste in Brazil,in the state and city of Rio de Janeiro

This paper examines potential changes in solid waste policies for the reduction in GHG for the country of Brazil and one of its major states and cities, Rio de Janeiro, from 2005 to 2030. To examine these policy options, trends in solid waste quantities and associated GHG emissions are derived. Three alternative policy scenarios are evaluated in terms of effectiveness, technology, and economics and conclusions posited regarding optimal strategies for Brazil to implement. These scenarios are been building on the guidelines for national inventories of GHG emissions (IPCC, 2006) and adapted to Brazilian states and municipalities’ boundaries. Based on the results, it is possible to say that the potential revenue from products of solid waste management is more than sufficient to transform the current scenario in this country into one of financial and environmental gains, where the negative impacts of climate change have created a huge opportunity to expand infrastructure for waste management.     

The application and development of country-specific parameters for accurate estimations of methane emissions from solid-waste disposal sites

To identify the application and development of country-specific parameters for methane emission estimations from solid-waste disposal sites, National Inventory Reports of 41 Annex I countries and National Communications of ten non-Annex I countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change were analyzed. A first-order decay method was applied to 38 out of 41 Annex I countries and to five out of ten non-Annex I countries in national GHG inventory submissions up to 2012. Country-specific parameters were approximately 26 % of the total number of parameters used in the 38 Annex I countries and were mostly developed for degradable organic carbon and reaction constants that cover certain waste compositions. The UNFCCC encourages countries to develop more country-specific parameters reflecting the distinct characteristics of each country in which solid-waste disposal site is a key source. Depending on a country’s condition, a stepwise approach regarding the development of country-specific parameters needs to be done so as to improve the accuracy of methane emission estimates in the solid-waste disposal site category.     

Review of recycling performance indicators: A study on collection rate in Taiwan

The Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (Taiwan EPA) launched a national Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system after integrating eight private recycling organizations in 1998. After that, the environmental performance of the EPR system brought a lot of attention to policy makers. Many studies show positive environmental effects of the EPR system in Taiwan. However, there are controversial questions remained, such as whether the performance indicators used are the right choice to estimate the environmental effects of the recycling policy? Can those estimated results really reflect the performance of the system?This paper would therefore like to more accurately evaluate the performance indicators of the EPR system based on data observed over the past decade in Taiwan. In the process of evaluating the performance indicators, we have found that the collection rates for durable goods are often ignored in countries that pursue a zero waste policy. This may affect the actual recycling outcome and resource direction targeted by producers. However, in order for the collection rate to be adopted as a policy indicator, how to estimate the amounts of retired or waste products during a period is critical. In this paper, we estimate the collection rate for electrical and electronic waste by using the survival analysis and ownership data analysis approaches. We also provide a comparison of both approaches and put forward suggestions for directions in the future in solid waste management.     

The potential environmental gains from recycling waste plastics: Simulation of transferring recycling and recovery technologies to Shenyang, China

With the increasing attention on developing a low-carbon economy, it is necessary to seek appropriate ways on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through innovative municipal solid waste management (MSWM), such as urban symbiosis. However, quantitative assessments on the environmental benefits of urban symbiosis, especially in developing countries, are limited because only a limited number of planned synergistic activities have been successful and it is difficult to acquire detailed inventory data from private companies. This paper modifies and applies a two-step simulation system and used it to assess the potential environmental benefits, including the reduction of GHG emissions and saving of fossil fuels, by employing various Japanese plastics recycling/energy-recovery technologies in Shenyang, China. The results showed that among various recycling/energy-recovery technologies, the mechanical waste plastics recycling technology, which produces concrete formwork boards (NF boards), has the greatest potential in terms of reducing GHG emissions (1.66 kg CO₂e/kg plastics), whereas the technology for the production of refuse plastic fuel (RPF) has the greatest potential on saving fossil fuel consumption (0.77 kgce/kg-plastics). Additional benefits can be gained by applying combined technologies that cascade the utilization of waste plastics. Moreover, the development of clean energy in conjunction with the promotion of new waste plastics recycling programs could contribute to additional reductions in GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption.     

各主要发达国家碳减排政策工具实施情况分析

在世界气候变暖的大背景下,发达国家作为温室气体的主要排放责任国,负有义不容辞的减排义务.各国采取了各种政策工具进行减排,较普遍也较重要的政策工具是碳税政策和碳排放交易权政策.选取美国、欧盟、日本、英国几个代表性的发达国家,对其碳税和碳交易权政策工具的实施情况进行了系统分析.     

Role of waste management with regard to climate protection: a case study.

According to the Kyoto Protocol and the burden-sharing agreement of the European Union, Austria is required to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the years 2008 to 2012 in order to achieve an average reduction of 13%, based on the level of emissions for the year 1990. The present contribution gives an overview of the history of GHG emission regulation in Austria and identifies the progress made towards the realization of the national climate strategy to attain the GHG emission targets. The contribution uses Austria as an example of the way in which proper waste management can help to reduce GHG emissions. The GHG inventories show that everything must be done to minimize the carbon input due to waste deposition at landfill sites. The incineration of waste is particularly helpful in reducing GHG emissions. The waste-to-energy by incineration plants and recovery of energy yield an ecologically proper treatment of waste using state-of-the-art techniques of a very high standard. The potential for GHG reduction of conventional waste treatment technologies has been estimated by the authors. A growing number of waste incinerators and intensified co-incineration of waste in Austrian industry will both help to reduce national GHG emissions substantially. By increasing the number and capacity of plants for thermal treatment of waste the contribution of proper waste management to the national target for reduction of GHG emissions will be in the range of 8 to 14%. The GHG inventories also indicate that a potential CO2 reduction of about 500 000 t year(-1) is achievable by co-incineration of waste in Austrian industry.     

Emission Models and Inventories for Local Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment: Experience in the East Midlands Region of the Uk

This paper considers how regional greenhouse gas emissioninventories can be determined. It presents a greenhousegas emissions inventory, by source, for the East Midlandsthat has been compiled as part of a regional study intoclimate change impacts in the United Kingdom. This hasused available local data, and national emissions datawith appropriate scaling factors. Total greenhouse gasemissions for the region are estimated to be 59 milliontonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂ equivalent)for 1997. Of these emissions, approximately 86% werecarbon dioxide emissions, 7% methane emissions, and 5%were nitrous oxide, with emissions of hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride(SF₆) contributing less than 2% of total emissions.     

Achieving sustainable biomaterials by maximising waste recovery

The waste hierarchy of ‘reduce, reuse, recycle, recover’ can be followed to improve the sustainability of a product, yet it is not applied in any meaningful way in the biomaterials industry which focuses more on sustainable sourcing of inputs. This paper presents the results of industry interviews and a focus group with experts to understand how waste recovery of biomaterials could become more widespread. Interview findings were used to develop three scenarios: (1) do nothing; (2) develop legislation; and (3) develop certification standards. These scenarios formed the basis for discussions at an expert focus group. Experts considered that action was required, rejecting the first scenario. No preference was apparent for scenarios (2) and (3). Experts agreed that there should be collaboration on collection logistics, promotion of demand through choice editing, product ‘purity’ could be championed though certification and there should be significant investment and research into recovery technologies. These considerations were incorporated into the development of a model for policy makers and industry to help increase biomaterial waste recovery.