CO2 emission reduction costs for iron ore-based steelmaking in Sweden

Possibilities to reduce CO₂ emissions and related costs at Swedish iron-ore based steelmaking in Sweden have been estimated. An evaluation of the direct impact on costs for emission-reducing measures due to the inclusion in the EU ETS is also made.Two different abatement options, based on previously implemented measures at SSAB Oxelösund as well as some future measures that could be implemented at the company by 2010, have been investigated. The first option corresponds to a CO₂ emission reduction of 6.5% and the second to a 13% reduction. The abatement measure with the largest reduction potential is dependent on natural gas being available at SSAB Oxelösund by 2010, which is not certain.Several of the estimated abatement costs are negative, meaning cost savings for the company if implemented. The cost estimates are strongly linked to the fuel prices. The inclusion of industries in the EU ETS increases the incentives for companies to implement CO₂ abatement measures.     

Fairness aspects of linking the European emissions trading scheme under a long-term stabilization scenario for CO2 concentration

Climate equity is a crucial but difficult element in negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. With respect to the trading of greenhouse gas emissions the equity aspect is considered in the Kyoto Protocol which demands that emissions trading should be supplemental to domestic abatement efforts. The question arises whether a linking of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) to non-EU emission trading schemes or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could have an impact on principles of climate justice and thus potentially affect ongoing negotiations. In this study, we present the results of a three step analysis: In a first step, it estimates mid-term greenhouse gas emission entitlements for Annex B and Non-Annex B countries for the year 2020 which keep within reach a stabilization of the CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv in the long-term. In the second step, the resulting emission entitlements are used as an input to an economic partial-equilibrium model in order to assess the shift of abatement efforts under different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. In a third step, we analyze the outcome of the economic model with respect to the future trend of European per capita emissions under the current EU ETS relative to different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. The model results indicate that European per capita emissions have to be reduced to a considerably smaller extent if a linking of the EU ETS is accompanied by an optimal design of the National Allocation Plans and if low-cost CO₂ permits became available via the CDM to a large extent.

Linking the EU emissions trading scheme: economic implications of allowance allocation and global carbon constraints

We investigate the role of domestic allowance allocation and global emissions constraints for the carbon-market impacts of linking the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) internationally. Employing a quantitative simulation model of the global carbon market, we find that the economic benefits from connecting the European ETS to emerging non-EU schemes strongly depend on the regional allowance allocation of the linking participants: In a world of moderate carbon constraints, an economically efficient regional allowance allocation induces a much stronger fall in total compliance costs than a sub-optimal (i.e. too high) domestic allocation of emissions permits. However, a more efficient (i.e. stricter) allocation shifts abatement efforts and compliance costs to energy-intensive industries which are covered by the domestic ETS. We further find that committing to ambitious global emissions reduction targets (compatible with stabilizing CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm) induces much stronger regional abatement efforts and substantially higher compliance costs for the abating regions. In such an ambitious climate policy regime, an efficient domestic allocation of allowances is even more important from an economic perspective: Here, linking emissions trading schemes diminishes the associated compliance costs on the largest scale.

The CO2 abatement cost curve for the Thailand cement industry

The cement industry is one of the largest carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitters in the Thai industry. The cement sector accounted for about 20,633 kilotonnes (ktonnes) CO₂ emissions in 2005 in Thailand. A bottom-up CO₂ abatement cost curve (ACC) is constructed in this study for the Thai cement industry to determine the potentials and costs of CO₂ abatement, taking into account the costs and CO₂ abatement of different technologies. The period of 2010–2025 is chosen as the scenario period. We analyzed 41 CO₂ abatement technologies and measures for the cement industry. Using the bottom-up CO₂ ACC model, the cost-effective annual CO₂ abatement potential for the Thai cement industry during the 15 year scenario period (2010–2025) is equal to 3095 ktonnes CO₂/year. This is about 15% of the Thai cement industry’s total CO₂ emissions in 2005. The total technical annual CO₂ abatement potential is 3143 ktonnes CO₂/year, which is about 15.2% of the Thai cement industry’s total CO₂ emissions in 2005. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis for the discount rate parameter.     

The role of CH4 and N2O emission reductions in the cost-effective control of the greenhouse gas emissions from Finland

The reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions may be quite expensive and it is necessary to consider reduction measures for other anthropogenic greenhouse gases, such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) as well. Their contribution to the total GHG emission from Finland is about 15–20%. In Finland most of the CH₄ emissions are due to waste management, agriculture and burning processes. N₂O emissions originate from burning processes, agriculture, industry and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. The cost-effective reduction of the Finnish GHG emissions has been studied with the EFOM-ENV model, which is a quasi-dynamic linear energy system optimisation model. The target function to be minimised is the total discounted cost for the modelled system. In this study the model has been expanded to cover all well-known anthropogenic CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O sources and reduction measures. The results indicate it is economic to reduce the emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O in Finland. It is profitable to exploit the economic reduction potential of CH₄ and N₂O, because then the abatement of CO₂ emissions does not need to be as extensive as when the reduction is aimed only at CO₂ emissions. The inclusion of CH₄ and N₂O decreases the annual reduction costs about 20% in the year 2010.     

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39 Pg CO₂eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO₂eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO₂eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption.     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.     

Marginal costs of abating greenhouse gases in the global ruminant livestock sector

Livestock [inclusive of ruminant species, namely cattle (Bos Taurus and Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), goats (Capra hircus), and buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis), and non-ruminant species, namely pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) and chickens (Gallus domesticus)] are both affected by climate change and contribute as much as 14.5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, most of which is from ruminant animals (Gerber et al. 2013). This study aims to estimate the marginal costs of reducing GHG emissions for a selection of practices in the ruminant livestock sector (inclusive of the major ruminant species—cattle, sheep, and goats) globally. It advances on previous assessments by calculating marginal costs rather than commonly reported average costs of abatement and can thus provide insights about abatement responses at different carbon prices. We selected the most promising abatement options based on their effectiveness and feasibility. Improved grazing management and legume sowing are the main practices assessed in grazing systems. The urea (CO(NH₂)₂) treatment of crop straws is the main practice applied in mixed crop–livestock systems, while the feeding of dietary lipids and nitrates are confined to more intensive production systems. These practices were estimated to reduce emissions by up to 379 metric megatons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent emissions per year (MtCO₂-eq yr^?1). Two thirds of this reduction was estimated to be possible at a carbon price of 20 US dollars per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent emissions ($20 tCO₂-eq^?1). This study also provides strategic guidance as to where abatement efforts could be most cost effectively targeted. For example, improved grazing management was particularly cost effective in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while legume sowing appeared to work best in Western Europe and Latin America.     

Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

A methodology is presented here to assess the potential long-term contribution of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases in mitigation scenarios. The analysis shows the future development of the mitigation potential of non-CO₂ gases (as a function of changes in technology and implementation barriers) to represent a crucial parameter for the overall costs of mitigation scenarios. The recently developed marginal abatement cost curves for 2010 in the EMF-21 project are taken as the starting point. First-order estimates were made of the future maximum attainable reduction potentials and costs on the basis of available literature. The set of MAC curves developed was used in a multi-gas analysis for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppm CO₂-equivalent. Including future development for the non-CO₂ mitigation options not only increases their mitigation potential but also lowers the overall costs compared to situations where no development is assumed (3–21% lower in 2050 and 4–26% lower in 2100 in our analysis). Along with the fluorinated gases, energy-related methane emissions make up the largest share in total non-CO₂ abatement potential as they represent a large emission source and have a large potential for reduction (towards 90% compared to baseline in 2100). Most methane and nitrous oxide emissions from landuse-related sources are less simple to abate, with an estimated abatement potential in 2100 of around 60% and 40%, respectively.     

Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

White certificates and domestic offset schemes: possible synergies

Next to energy efficiency, in the context of GHG reductions, additional policy mechanisms to the incumbent EU Emissions Trading scheme (EU ETS) are discussed. Such is the case of Non-ETS Domestic Offset (DO) schemes, which can reduce CO₂-eq.emissions in the non-ETS sectors and trade these as CO₂ credits on the ETS market. Taking into account that the EU’s “Linking Directive” (EC 2004) creates the conditions to use credits generated by emission reduction projects certified by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol (KP) within the EU ETS market, in this paper we employ the institutional analysis method of interactions in order to provide insight of a combined White Certificates (WhC) and DOs cheme. Special attention is paid to the parameters that seem to hamper harmonization of WhC and DO. Aim of this paper is to discuss whether smart market- based instruments, such as WhC, can be complementary to the effectiveness of mechanisms fostering energy efficiency such as DOs projects and vice versa. In this respect, the potential combined scheme is assessed (ex-ante) with the help of standard criteria that refer to the triptych energy, environment & society. Given the outcome of the study made, it is fair to say that such a DO/WhC combined scheme could be selected if the additionality concern is to minimize short term social costs of reaching a certain goal. However recent information and research conducted so far cannot yet uphold an ambition that a WhC/DO scheme of this kind could also drive technical change, keep consumer costs down and be equitable.     

Cost curve analysis for SO2 and NOx emission control in Finland

The development of air pollution policies requires information on emission control effectiveness, application potential and costs. In this study Finnish cost-effectiveness data were calculated for sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in 1990 using technical and cost parameters from national operation experience in power plants and industry. Both derived cost curves depicting abated amount of emissions and related annualised costs were comparable with those in the Europe-wide Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model data for Finland using more aggregated input data, part of which were the same for all European countries. The ranking of abatement measures to combat acidifying emissions was explored by combining the controls of both SO₂ and NO_x based on their acidifying potential. The most cost-efficient controls, related mainly to SO₂, were already in use in 1995. A sensitivity analysis for SO₂ indicated that the uncertainty in annual operating hours of combustion plants (±1000 h per annum) has the largest effect on total abatement costs (−7 to −6%), whereas the presumed uncertainties of ±10% in removal efficiencies have the greatest effect of ±11% on total emissions. The national assessment of emission controls was important in describing the country-specific conditions in detail and highlighting the major differences from the RAINS model data and methodology. The results have facilitated the composition of further national reduction measures.     

Trees as carbon sinks and sources in the European Union

The carbon (C) sinks and sources of trees that may be accounted for under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012 were estimated for the countries of the European Union (EU) based on existing forest inventory data. Two sets of definitions for the accounted activities, afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, were applied. Applying the definitions by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the trees were estimated to be a C source in eight and a C sink in seven countries, and in the whole EU a C source of 5.4 Tg year⁻¹. Applying the definitions by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the trees were estimated to be a C source in three and a C sink in 12 countries, and in the whole EU a C sink of 0.1 Tg year⁻¹. These estimates are small compared with the C sink of trees in all EU forests, 63 Tg year⁻¹, the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of the EU, 880 Tg C year⁻¹, and the reduction target of the CO₂ emissions, 8%. In individual countries, the estimated C sink of the trees accounted for under Article 3.3 was at largest 8% and the C source 12% compared with the CO₂ emissions.     

Mitigation Options for Enteric Methane Emissions from Dairy Animals: An Evaluation for Potential CDM Projects in India

Enteric fermentation in livestock is an important source of anthropogenic methane emission. India, with its large livestock population, is estimated to contribute 10.8 Tg of methane annually from this source. An evaluation of various methane mitigation options indicate that some of the available technologies like, diet supplementation with feed additive and molasses urea product are highly cost effective in reducing enteric methane emissions. The gross cost of methane abatement from use of feed additive monensin premix ranges from €0.6 to €1.8/ton CO₂ equivalent, for buffaloes and indigenous cows, respectively. The gross cost of enteric methane mitigation from supplementing molasses urea products and dietary manipulation through increased concentrate feeding is much higher. But, as the monetary value of the increased milk production on application of these technologies was higher than the annual cost of reduction strategy for buffaloes and crossbred cows, the net costs of the former mitigation option was negative for buffaloes (€-28.1/ton CO₂) and of the latter for crossbred cows (€-7.0/ton CO₂,). The availability of cost-effective technologies suggest that the methane mitigation projects under CDM, can be planned in the Indian dairy sector to the mutual benefit of countries with emission targets and India. The vast dairy animal population of India and resulting methane emissions provide good opportunity these countries to buy reasonable quantum of emission credits from projects in India. Such projects will work to the benefit to India by providing a tool for technology transfer to increase animal productivity and attract capital that assists in more prosperous and environmental friendly milk production in the country.     

Long-term reductions in costs of controlling regional air pollution in Europe due to climate policy

This paper examines to what extent climate change policies will alter the effectiveness of agreed-upon or future policies to reduce regional air pollution in Europe and vice versa. And when is it cost-effective to combat regional air pollution with clean technology instead of add-on technology?For this exercise, several extensions were made to the energy model TIMER, to introduce add-on abatement technologies, specified in terms of costs and reduction potentials, in order to be able to calculate cost-effective emission reduction strategies for different scenarios and regions.The results show that add-on technologies to reduce regional air pollution remain necessary throughout the century. The costs to reach the NO_x emission reduction targets in Europe are about three times as high as for SO₂. Mitigation costs averaged over the century by add-on technologies can be reduced by climate measures by 50–70% for SO₂ and around 50% for NO_x. The costs of SO₂ and NO_x mitigation by add-on technology in a world without climate policy are comparable or in some periods even higher than the costs of an integrated mitigation of SO₂, NO_x and CO₂ emissions if a reduction of specific costs by learning is, in contrast with energy technologies, not assumed for abatement technologies. So, the costs of SO₂ and NO_x add-on measures avoided by climate policies can outweigh the costs of these climate measures. The total annual costs are in the order of 1 or 2% of the present GDP, depending on the scenario.     

The adequacy of GWPs as indicators of damage costsincurred by global warming

This article looks at the ability of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) towork as indicators of equivalence for temperature development and damagecosts. We look at two abatement scenarios that are equivalent when using100-year GWPs: one scenario reduces short-lived gases, mainly methane(CH₄); the other scenario reduces carbon dioxide (CO₂).Despite their equivalence in terms of CO₂ equivalents, the scenariosdo not result in equal rates or levels of temperature change. The disparitiescontinue as we move further down the chain of causality toward damagecosts, measured either in terms of rate of climate change or level of climatechange. Compared to the CH₄ mitigation scenario, the CO₂mitigation scenario gives present value costs 1.3 and 1.5 times higher forlevel- and rate-dependent damage costs, respectively, assuming a discountrate of 3%. We also test the GWPs for other time horizons and theconclusions remain the same; using GWP as an index to reflect equivalentclimate effects and damage costs from emissions is questionable.     

Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China: Carbon intensity, economic growth and policy intervention

As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO₂ emission sectors, China's iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO₂ emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO₂ abatement, investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO₂ emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO₂ abatement in China's iron and steel industry, while achieving CO₂ emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth. This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth. Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO₂ abatement.     

Least cost electricity generation options based on environmental impact abatement

The power sector in Thailand is the largest contributor to CO₂ emissions. There is high potential to mitigate CO₂ emission via alternative power generating plants. Alternative plants considered in this study include nuclear plants, integrated gasification combined cycle plants, biomass-based plants and supercritical thermal power plants. The biomass-based plants considered here are fueled with four types of biomass; paddy husk, municipal solid waste (MSW), fuel wood and corncob. The methodology for the optimal expansion plan of the power generating system over the planning horizon is based on the least-cost approach. The results from the least-cost planning analyses show that the nuclear alternative has the highest potential to mitigate not only CO₂ but also other airborne emissions. Moreover, the nuclear option is the most effective abatement strategy for CO₂ reduction due to its negative incremental cost of CO₂ reduction.