湖北远安盐池河1980年“6.3”山崩灾难成因分析

1980年6月3日,湖北省远安县盐池河磷矿发生大规模山崩,造成284人死亡。该文分析认为,山崩是在地形、岩性、构造、采矿和降雨多因素作用下形成的,大规模磷矿采空区的悬板张拉作用是山体顶部开裂的主要因素,顺倾软弱带的强度弱化是开裂山体滑移的根本原因。通过建立盐池河山崩地质模型和力学模型,结合变形监测资料分析,建立了顺倾山体开裂力学判据和开裂后山体滑移力学判据。从减灾文化建设角度,探讨了当事人、管理干部和技术专家在盐池河山崩灾难防范过程中的经验教训和防灾启示,可为闻者戒。     

Snow avalanche hazards in the Glen Nevis and Glen Coe areas of Scotland

Until quite recently, snow avalanches in Britain had caused only a few deaths and the occasional destruction of property. Since about 1950, however, the number of people involved in avalanche accidents has risen sharply, particularly in Scotland. The main reason for this has been the growing popularity of mountaineering. This paper examines the situation in the Glen Nevis and Glen Coe areas of the Western Highlands. The types of avalanche occurring at these localities are briefly discussed and relationships between avalanche characteristics and accidents are examined. Mountaineers are the group chiefly responsible for the increase of avalanche deaths and injuries in the Glen Nevis and Glen Coe areas. Responses to the hazard are considered and these are shown to be inadequate. As elsewhere in Scotland, much more research is needed if a further worsening of the problem is to be avoided.     

雪崩危险度评价的类型、特征和方法

在提出“积雪单元”概念的基础上,将雪崩危险度评价分为区域雪崩危险度评价和点位雪崩危险度评价。从发生学角度,论证、筛选出发生危险度评价的4个主导因素,即气候、积雪厚度、坡度和植被类型与覆盖度,并提出了明确的指标体系。详细论证了两类评价各自的特征、操作性评价程序和方法。区域雪崩危险度评价是在划分积雪单元的基础上,评定各单元的等级高低并进行制图;点位雪崩危险度评价则涉及到雪崩发生点位和可能的承灾点位,分为发生危险度评价和到达危险度评价,可根据已有的统计资料来预测其概率。     

山地灾害垂直地带性及其对南水北调西线第一期工程的影响

由于形成山地灾害的多种自然因素具有垂直地带性，尤其作为主要动力因素的水，超过一定高度后由液态成为固态，从而造成了山地灾害的垂直地带性。山地灾害从高到低可分为冰雪带、冻融带和流水（古地下水，裂隙水）带，高低两带之间主体界线在南水北调西线工程及其邻近地区为4900m和3500m。各带均有其特点，其中对西线第一期工程及其下游地区可能造成重大影响的有：大型的冰崩、雪崩、冰湖崩决、滑坡或古滑坡复活、泥石流、泥石流坝或滑坡坝溃决。但这些大型山地灾害在该地区不很严重．今后出现的可能性小，只要引起重视，妥善处理，可以避免或减轻其危害。     

新藏公路(新疆段)沿线道路病害及成因初析

新藏公路新疆段横跨塔里木盆地与昆仑山两大地貌单元，沿线泥石流、滑坡、水毁、崩塌、坍塌、碎落、雪害、涎流冰、翻浆和多年冻土等道路病害类型多样，发生频繁，不时断道阻车，严重影响着新藏公路的通行。该段沿线地质构造错综复杂，新构造运动和地震活动强烈，地形起伏大，地貌类型多样，气候条件多变，冰川作用强烈，以及人为不合理的建设活动和现有道路设计标准低、承灾能力差等，促进了各类道路病害的形成和发展。随着全球气候变暖、太阳活动和地震活动的加强，道路病害将进人新的活跃期，防灾形势十分严峻。     

汶川地震次生灾害提取——面向对象影像分类技术的应用

遥感技术可快速准确地提取滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、堰塞湖等次生灾害信息。面向对象影像分类技术主要通过多尺度分割,并根据对象的特征进行模糊分类,可以很好的利用影像上下文信息,提高分类精度,与传统方法相比优势明显。利用汶川地震的震前、震后的福卫二号等数据进行研究,使用面向对象方法对北川附近灾情进行了变化检测分析;并结合DEM数据对唐家山堰塞湖璇坪乡区域震后初期的水体面积和蓄水增量进行了分析。在此基础上,总结了提取地震次生灾害的关键技术和工作流程。实验结果表明,应用面向对象的变化检测方法提取地震次生灾害可以取得很好的结果。     

中国南方山地“砂石化”及控制对策—以云南小江流域为例

“砂石化”是我国南方山地河谷区在崩塌、滑坡、泥石流发生发展过程中所伴生的一种灾变现象，视其地理景观，酷似我国西北地区的戈壁荒漠。作者以云南小江流域为例，通过多年的实地考察研究，从理论与实践的结合上，就“砂石化”的形成过程、类型特征和控制对策等进行剖析，以期引起人们对此类灾变现象的关注。     

地震中造成建筑物毁损的耦合效应

通过对北川地震灾区损毁建筑物的实地调查,指出震区建筑物毁损是由地质背景条件、建设场区地基土特性及建筑施工技术等多种因素的耦合效应造成的.地震诱发滑坡、崩塌、砂七液化等次生地质灾害造成建筑物场区失稳、失效,是震区建筑物毁损的重要原因.震区房屋毁损的特点是砖混结构和复杂建筑破坏严重,框架结构房屋和建筑幕墙等其他建筑破坏各有特点.在综合分析使建筑物毁损的耦合效应的基础上,提出了提高震区设防烈度、科学选址及吸收国内外先进抗震经验的思路,为灾后重建工作积累科学资料.     

汶川"5·12"地震公路灾害分析和防治对策

"5·12"汶川8.0级特大地震中,震区公路及其设施设备遭到了极为严重的破坏,公路受损里程累计53 295 km.通过灾后现场调查资料对震区高山峡谷地带的公路破坏特征进行了剖析和归纳.将地震灾害破坏模式划分为两种:一种是与地震同步发生的地震波对公路结构本身造成的直接破坏模式,主要有公路的路面、桥梁、隧道结构本身的变形和破坏;另一种是地震诱发诸如崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、塌陷等次生灾害对公路的间接破坏作用.通过对两种破坏作用的分析,从6个方面提出了对震区高山峡谷地带的公路抗震防灾对策建议.     

天山冰雪圈地貌过程和自然灾害

天山山地地貌过程受水热分布和地形的影响具有明显的水平和垂直分异性。因此，由地貌过程引起的自然灾害也具有区域分异和垂直分异性。天山冰雪圈指的是冰缘和冰川地貌景观带，其中的过程与自然灾害同样具有区域性和垂直性的分异。目前发生在天山冰雪圈的主要灾害为雪崩、泥石流、洪水和崩塌。本文主要讨论它们的形成条件、过程特征和成灾规律，并提出减灾的初步措施。     

中尼公路聂友段公路病害及防治对策

中尼公路聂友段地质、地貌和气候条件特殊,滑坡、崩塌、泥石流和雪崩等自然灾害十分严重,具有群发性、频发性、周期性,并形成灾害链,公路病害十分发育。通过对中尼公路聂友段沿线实地考察、勘测,并根据典型灾害的成灾特征和危害方式,提出一系列的整治措施,其中康山桥雪崩采用明硐加挡墙的方案,樟藏布泥石流和707#滑坡采用修建索桥的方案,扎木拉滑坡崩塌体采用改线加明硐的方案,确保了中尼公路的畅通,而且对西藏其他类似地区也将具有重要的引用和借鉴价值。     

Science guides search and rescue after the 2006 Philippine landslide

A rockslide-debris avalanche destroyed the remote village of Guinsaugon in Southern Leyte, Philippines, on 17 February 2006. Although search and rescue procedures were implemented immediately, the scale of the landslide and a lack of information about its nature resulted in unfocused and imprecise efforts in the early days of the operation. Technical support was only introduced five days after the event, provided by a team of volunteer geologists, geophysicists, and meteorologists. By the time search and rescue operations were transferred to specific target sites, however, the chances of finding survivors trapped under the rubble had diminished. In such critical situations, speed, accuracy, and the maximum appropriation of resources are crucial. We emphasise here the need for a systematic and technically informed approach to search and rescue missions in large-scale landslide disaster contexts, and the formulation of better disaster management policies in general. Standard procedures must be developed and enforced to improve how civil authorities respond to natural calamities.     

中国的冰雪灾害及其发展趋势

中国每年都有不同程度的冰雪灾害发生，冰雪灾害成为中国西部和北部经济发展的一个制约因素。最近１００～１５０年内，气候变暖将显著地减少冰冻圈的区域范围与数量，这种减少对有关的生态系统和社会经济活动将产生明显的影响。山地冰川的冰雪丧失和退缩将是惊人的。小冰川分布地区，如祁连山、阿尔泰山等，随着预料的变暖在未来１００年内将大部分消失；但喀喇昆仑山、帕米尔、天山以及喜马拉雅山等的那些大冰川将持续存在到２２世纪。冰川阻寒湖溃决洪水规模将日益变小。随着气候变化，冰雪融水径流将发生明显变化。随着气候变暖，季节性积雪的范围、积雪期和厚度将减少，从整体说，季节性积雪灾害（如雪崩、风吹雪）将变轻。海冰的范围和厚度将发生巨大变化，不仅是由于气候变暖，而且由于大气和大洋两者的环流形式发生变化，我们预期：黄海和渤海的海冰和北方地区河冰将显著减少，因此，河冰、海冰灾害亦将变轻。     

Entitlements, coping mechanisms and indicators of access to food: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

Vulnerability to famine and traditional responses to food insecurity in Wollo Region, Ethiopia are described. The timeliness of anthropometric and socio-economic indicators of access to food is then assessed, using data collected in Wollo by Save the Children Fund during 1987–88, a period of drought and subsequent food insecurity. The movements of different indicators are then examined for evidence of correspondence at sub-district level. The author concludes that although anthropometric status does not respond as early as crop yield or grain price, a deterioration in anthropometric status is detectable at a stage when livestock and migration indicators show little or no change and mortality rate remains unaffected. At sub-district level, changes in different indicators are not well-correlated.     

颗粒流冲击力研究现状及讨论∗

颗粒流包括滑坡、泥石流、碎屑流、雪崩等,通常对桥梁、公路、居民区具有较大危害。分析了颗粒流的运动过程及其侵蚀、堆积和爬高等特性;此外,对颗粒流冲击力计算模型及其野外观测结果进行阐述。结果表明:现有冲击力计算模型认为冲击力在结构全断面呈均匀分布,忽略了颗粒流的运动特性对冲击力的影响;大块石冲击力计算忽略了颗粒破碎和浆体垫层效应对冲击力的影响,造成巨大的计算误差;由于传统传感器的缺陷,现有野外观测结果也存在较大误差。对此本文提出野外观测需要通过引入或开发新式压力传感器以得到更准确的颗粒流冲击力大小及其分布形式,从而更精确的修正理论模型;理论计算模型研究工作需要考虑颗粒流浆体的垫层效应、流体与基底的相互作用及块石冲击破碎等对流体冲击力的影响,从而推导出更准确的冲击力计算模型,指导工程实际。     

Disaster risk,social vulnerability,and economic development

This paper examines the extent to which economic development decreases a country's risk of experiencing climate‐related disasters as well as the societal impacts of those events. The paper proceeds from the underlying assumption that disasters are not inherently natural, but arise from the intersection of naturally‐occurring hazards within fragile environments. It uses data from the International Disaster Database (EM‐DAT), 1 representing country‐year‐level observations over the period 1980–2007. The study finds that low‐income countries are significantly more at risk of climate‐related disasters, even after controlling for exposure to climate hazards and other factors that may confound disaster reporting. Following the occurrence of a disaster, higher income generally diminishes a country's social vulnerability to such happenings, resulting in lower levels of mortality and morbidity. This implies that continued economic development may be a powerful tool for lessening social vulnerability to climate change.     

Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration

Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development.     

Deconstruction of destruction stories: narrative,inequality, and disasters

A commonly‐held belief is that natural disasters do not discriminate. This paper, though, poses the following theoretical question: what does the elision of race, class, and gender in the news media say about disasters in the neoliberal era? It draws on the author's analysis of two prominent newspapers—The New York Times and USA Today—and their coverage of the recovery process after devastating tornadoes in two towns in the United States (Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri) in 2011. The study asserts that the narrative of the news media is one with which people are familiar and that it fits into larger ‘formula stories’. It utilises theoretical treatments of narrative to demonstrate how differences are erased and how they lead to complicity in hegemonic representations. Critical theory is used to elucidate why this occurs, and the paper sources Goldberg (2002) in suggesting that the news media employs ‘fantasies of homogenisation’ when representing post‐disaster communities.     

台湾集集地震近断层强震地面运动加速度时程的随机特性

将强震地面运动加速度时程看作随机过程,选取台湾集集地震的30组近断层加速度时程为样本,研究其相关特性。3方向集系上的自相关矩阵和互相关矩阵表明3方向的加速度时程均为非平稳随机过程,并且相关系数的分布是随机的,这种随机相关性是无法用确定性的数学模型来模拟的。为此,又研究了样本函数的相关特性,即随机过程样本函数的相关函数,结果发现在随机过程的相关函数中包含有明显的随机函数分量,即相关函数仍为一随机过程,我们称这样的随机过程为超随机过程,本文建立了超随机过程相关函数的数学模型。本文的研究表明近断层强地面运动为一复杂的随机过程,对其相关特性的研究应当包括相关系数(性)的大小和相关系数(性)的随机分布两个方面。     

“放管服”改革下建设工程地震安全监管的制度重构

国务院推行“放管服”改革后,投资项目前置审批条件进一步精简,建设工程地震安全性评价由行政审批改为强制性评估,监管的方式发生了变化。改革后的地震安全监管具有技术服务属性、审查时序变化、用户主体责任和市场竞争机制等特征。建议主管部门从拓展公共服务、建设监管平台、引入信用评价、完善协同机制四个方面重构建设工程地震安全监管制度体系,确保建设工程抗震设防水平不降低。