Electricity from Fossil Fuels without CO2 Emissions: Assessing the Costs of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration in U.S. Electricity Markets

ABSTRACT

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO₂ emissions via CO₂ capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO₂ mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO₂ capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a “bottom-up” engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Electricity from fossil fuels without CO2 emissions: assessing the costs of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration in U.S. electricity markets.

The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO2 emissions via CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO2 mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO2 capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a "bottom-up" engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.     

Developing a High-Resolution Vehicular Emission Inventory by Integrating an Emission Model and a Traffic Model: Part 2—A Case Study in Beijing

Abstract

A grid-based, bottom-up method has been proposed by combining a vehicle emission model and a travel demand model to develop a high-resolution vehicular emission inventory for Chinese cities. Beijing is used as a case study in which the focus is on fuel consumption and emissions from hot-stabilized activities of light-duty gasoline vehicles (LGVs) in 2005. The total quantity of emissions, emission intensity, and spatial distribution of emissions at 1- by 1-km resolution are presented and compared with results from other inventory methods commonly used in China. The results show that the total daily fuel consumption and vehicular emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and oxides of nitrogen from LGVs in the Beijing urban area in 2005 were 1.95 × 10⁷ L, 4.28 × 10⁴ t, 1.97 × 10³ t, 0.28 × 10³ t, and 0.14 × 10³ t, respectively. Vehicular fuel consumption and emissions show spatial variations that are consistent with the traffic characteristics. The grid-based inventory developed in this study reflects the influence of traffic conditions on vehicle emissions at the microscale and may be applied to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic-related measures on emission control in China.     

Estimating the carbon footprint of household activities in Japan from the time-use perspective

The household sector is a major driver of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, most existing studies have only estimated households’ carbon footprint from their expenditures. Households’ daily activity time, a scarce resource that limits and determines their consumption behavior, has rarely been integrated into the estimation. Incorporating the daily time-use patterns should thus provide a more practical perspective for mitigation policies aiming at promoting sustainable household lifestyles. In this study, by linking household time-use data and expenditure data of Japan, the carbon footprint and the GHG intensity of time of 85 daily household activities constituting the 24 hours in a day are estimated. Compared to the maximal 20-activity disaggregation in existing studies, our detailed 85-category disaggregation of daily time enables unprecedented details on the discrepancies between the carbon footprint from daily activities, many of which have previous been treated as one activity. Results indicate significant carbon mitigation potential in activities with a high GHG intensity of time, such as cooking, bathing, and mobility-related and activities. Average daily GHG emissions were also found to be higher on weekends as time-use patterns shift from paid work to free-time activities, highlighting the need for mitigation strategies on a weekly scale.

     

Compositions and greenhouse gas emission factors of flared and vented gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin

A significant obstacle in evaluating mitigation strategies for flaring and venting in the upstream oil and gas industry is the lack of publicly available data on the chemical composition of the gas. This information is required to determine the economic value of the gas, infrastructure and processing requirements, and potential emissions or emissions credits, all of which have significant impact on the economics of such strategies. This paper describes a method for estimating the composition of solution gas being flared and vented at individual facilities, and presents results derived for Alberta, Canada, which sits at the heart of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Using large amounts of raw data obtained through the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board, a relational database was created and specialized queries were developed to link production stream data, raw gas samples, and geography to create production-linked gas composition profiles for approximately half of the currently active facilities. These were used to create composition maps for the entire region, to which the remaining facilities with unknown compositions were geographically linked. The derived data were used to compute a range of solution gas composition profiles and greenhouse gas emission factors, providing new insight into flaring and venting in the region and enabling informed analysis of future management and mitigation strategies.

Implications: Accurate and transparent determination of environmental impacts of flaring and venting of gas associated with oil production, and potential benefits of mitigation, is severely hampered by the lack of publicly available gas composition data. In jurisdictions within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, frameworks exist for regulating and trading carbon offset credits but current potential for mitigation is limited by a lack of standardized methods for calculating CO₂ equivalent emissions. The composition and emission factor data derived in this paper will be useful to industry, regulators, policy researchers, and entrepreneurs seeking statistically significant and openly available data necessary to manage and mitigate upstream flaring and venting activity and estimate greenhouse gas impacts.     

Temporal and spatial distribution of atmospheric antimony emission inventories from coal combustion in China

A multiple-year inventory of atmospheric antimony (Sb) emissions from coal combustion in China for the period of 1980-2007 has been calculated for the first time. Specifically, the emission inventories of Sb from 30 provinces and 4 economic sectors (thermal power, industry, residential use, and others) are evaluated and analyzed in detail. It shows that the total Sb emissions released from coal combustion in China have increased from 133.19 t in 1980 to 546.67 t in 2007, at an annually average growth rate of 5.4%. The antimony emissions are largely emitted by industrial sector and thermal power generation sector, contributing 53.6% and 26.9% of the totals, respectively. At provincial level, the distribution of Sb emissions shows significant variation. Between 2005 and 2007, provinces always rank at the top five largest Sb emissions are: Guizhou, Hunan, Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui.     

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport

Emissions from land transport, and from road transport in particular, have significant impacts on the atmosphere and on climate change. This assessment gives an overview of past, present and future emissions from land transport, of their impacts on the atmospheric composition and air quality, on human health and climate change and on options for mitigation.In the past vehicle exhaust emission control has successfully reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter. This contributed to improved air quality and reduced health impacts in industrialised countries. In developing countries however, pollutant emissions have been growing strongly, adversely affecting many populations. In addition, ozone and particulate matter change the radiative balance and hence contribute to global warming on shorter time scales. Latest knowledge on the magnitude of land transport's impact on global warming is reviewed here.In the future, road transport's emissions of these pollutants are expected to stagnate and then decrease globally. This will then help to improve the air quality notably in developing countries. On the contrary, emissions of carbon dioxide and of halocarbons from mobile air conditioners have been globally increasing and are further expected to grow. Consequently, road transport's impact on climate is gaining in importance. The expected efficiency improvements of vehicles and the introduction of biofuels will not be sufficient to offset the expected strong growth in both, passenger and freight transportation. Technical measures could offer a significant reduction potential, but strong interventions would be needed as markets do not initiate the necessary changes. Further reductions would need a resolute expansion of low-carbon fuels, a tripling of vehicle fuel efficiency and a stagnation in absolute transport volumes. Land transport will remain a key sector in climate change mitigation during the next decades.     

Developing a high-resolution vehicular emission inventory by integrating an emission model and a traffic model: Part 2--A case study in Beijing

A grid-based, bottom-up method has been proposed by combining a vehicle emission model and a travel demand model to develop a high-resolution vehicular emission inventory for Chinese cities. Beijing is used as a case study in which the focus is on fuel consumption and emissions from hot-stabilized activities of light-duty gasoline vehicles (LGVs) in 2005. The total quantity of emissions, emission intensity, and spatial distribution of emissions at 1- by 1-km resolution are presented and compared with results from other inventory methods commonly used in China. The results show that the total daily fuel consumption and vehicular emissions of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and oxides of nitrogen from LGVs in the Beijing urban area in 2005 were 1.95 x 10(7) L, 4.28 x 10(4) t, 1.97 x 10(3) t, 0.28 x 10(3) t, and 0.14 x 10(3) t, respectively. Vehicular fuel consumption and emissions show spatial variations that are consistent with the traffic characteristics. The grid-based inventory developed in this study reflects the influence of traffic conditions on vehicle emissions at the microscale and may be applied to evaluate the effectiveness of traffic-related measures on emission control in China.     

Could China’s long-term low-carbon energy transformation achieve the double dividend effect for the economy and environment?

Exploring the low-carbon energy transformation pathway is vital to coordinate economic growth and environmental improvement for achieving China’s carbon peak target. Three energy-target scenarios are developed in this paper, considering the targets of energy structure, electrification rate, and carbon mitigation towards 2030 announced by the Chinese government. A dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM, is employed to examine the economic and environmental effects under different pathways of long-term low-carbon transformation. It detects that China’s energy structure would substantially transfer to the low-carbon and clean one, whereas CO₂, SO₂, and NO_X emissions in 2020–2030 would vastly abate along with all three energy-target scenarios. Different pathways would produce varying positive impacts on China’s macro-economy and achieve the different extent of double dividend effects. It is highly conceivable for China to peak its carbon emission at 12.4 GtCO₂ by 2028 if it serves the comparatively more stringent low-carbon transformation pathways.

     

Emissions and risks associated with oxyfuel combustion: State of the science and critical data gaps

Oxyfuel combustion is a promising technology that may greatly facilitate carbon capture and sequestration by increasing the relative CO₂ content of the combustion emission stream. However, the potential effect of enhanced oxygen combustion conditions on emissions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants (e.g., acid gases, particulates, metals and organics) is not well studied. It is possible that combustion under oxyfuel conditions could produce emissions posing different risks than those currently being managed by the power industry (e.g., by changing the valence state of metals). The data available for addressing these concerns are quite limited and are typically derived from laboratory-scale or pilot-scale tests. A review of the available data does suggest that oxyfuel combustion may decrease the air emissions of some pollutants (e.g., SO₂, NOx, particulates) whereas data for other pollutants are too limited to draw any conclusions. The oxy-combustion systems that have been proposed to date do not have a conventional “stack” and combustion flue gas is treated in such a way that solid or liquid waste streams are the major outputs. Use of this technology will therefore shift emissions from air to solid or liquid waste streams, but the risk management implications of this potential change have yet to be assessed. Truly useful studies of the potential effects of oxyfuel combustion on power plant emissions will require construction of integrated systems containing a combustion system coupled to a CO₂ processing unit. Sampling and analysis to assess potential emission effects should be an essential part of integrated system tests.

Implications: Oxyfuel combustion may facilitate carbon capture and sequestration by increasing the relative CO₂ content of the combustion emission stream. However, the potential effect of enhanced oxygen combustion conditions on emissions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants has not been well studied. Combustion under oxyfuel conditions could produce emissions posing different risks than those currently being managed by the power industry. Therefore, before moving further with oxyfuel combustion as a new technology, it is appropriate to summarize the current understanding of potential emissions risk and to identify data gaps as priorities for future research.     

Dynamism of household carbon emissions (HCEs) from rural and urban regions of northern and southern China

China contributes 23 % of global carbon emissions, of which 26 % originate from the household sector. Due to vast variations in both climatic conditions and the affordability and accessibility of fuels, household carbon emissions (HCEs) differ significantly across China. This study compares HCEs (per person) from urban and rural regions in northern China with their counterparts in southern China. Annual macroeconomic data for the study period 2005 to 2012 were obtained from Chinese government sources, whereas the direct HCEs for different types of fossil fuels were obtained using the IPCC reference approach, and indirect HCEs were calculated by input-output analysis. Results suggest that HCEs from urban areas are higher than those from rural areas. Regardless of the regions, there is a similarity in per person HCEs in urban areas, but the rural areas of northern China had significantly higher HCEs than those from southern China. The reasons for the similarity between urban areas and differences between rural areas and the percentage share of direct and indirect HCEs from different sources are discussed. Similarly, the reasons and solutions to why decarbonising policies are working in urban areas but not in rural areas are discussed.

     

Measurement of China’s green GDP and its dynamic variation based on industrial perspective

Over the previous two decades, Chinese economic development presented a rapid growth. However, with continuous industrialization and urbanization, China is confronted with great challenges of energy security and environmental issues. These problems are closely related to the current accounting method of economic growth to a certain extent. In order to meet these challenges, it is imperative to establish a green accounting system of economic growth and measure China’s green GDP and its changing trend based on the industrial perspective. Using the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA) and industry data, this paper estimates China’s green GDP and green value added by industry sectors in 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2017. The results reveal the following: First, the ratio of green GDP to traditional GDP gradually increases from 89.85 to 95.83% during 2005–2017, which means that the negative externalities of economic growth of the resource and environment are gradually weakened. Second, the difference between traditional GDP and green GDP during 2005–2017 is about 6.96%, with the carbon emissions accounting for 70.71% of environmental impact. Third, due to more than 80% of the environmental impact coming from three sectors: manufacturing (49.99%), electricity industry (22.63%), and other services (11.37%), these three sectors should be key sectors for energy conservation and emission reduction; fourth, the green GDP of the mining, electricity industries, and manufacturing accounts for the lowest proportion of GDP, which means that the development patterns of these three industries in recent years should be adjusted and optimized step by step.

     

Emission factors of atmospheric and climatic pollutants from crop residues burning

Biomass burning is a common agricultural practice, because it allows elimination of postharvesting residues; nevertheless, it involves an inefficient combustion process that generates atmospheric pollutants emission, which has implications on health and climate change. This work focuses on the estimation of emission factors (EFs) of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and methane (CH₄) of residues from burning alfalfa, barley, beans, cotton, maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat in Mexico. Chemical characteristics of the residues were determined to establish their relationship with EFs, as well as with the modified combustion efficiency (MCE). Essays were carried out in an open combustion chamber with isokinetic sampling, following modified EPA 201-A method. EFs did not present statistical differences among different varieties of the same crop, but were statistically different among different crops, showing that generic values of EFs for all the agricultural residues can introduce significant uncertainties when used for climatic and atmospheric pollutant inventories. EFs of PM_2.5 ranged from 1.19 to 11.30 g kg^?1, and of PM₁₀ from 1.77 to 21.56 g kg^?1. EFs of EC correlated with lignin content, whereas EFs of OC correlated inversely with carbon content. EFs of EC and OC in PM_2.5 ranged from 0.15 to 0.41 g kg^?1 and from 0.33 to 5.29 g kg^?1, respectively, and in PM₁₀, from 0.17 to 0.43 g kg^?1 and from 0.54 to 11.06 g kg^?1. CO₂ represented the largest gaseous emissions volume with 1053.35–1850.82 g kg^?1, whereas the lowest was CH₄ with 1.61–5.59 g kg^?1. CO ranged from 28.85 to 155.71 g kg^?1, correlating inversely with carbon content and MCE. EFs were used to calculate emissions from eight agricultural residues burning in the country during 2016, to know the potential mitigation of climatic and atmospheric pollutants, provided this practice was banned.

Implications: The emission factors of particles, short-lived climatic pollutants, and atmospheric pollutants from the crop residues burning of eight agricultural wastes crops, determined in this study using a standardized method, provides better knowledge of the emissions of those species in Latin America and other developing countries, and can be used as inputs in air quality models and climatic studies. The EFs will allow the development of more accurate inventories of aerosols and gaseous pollutants, which will lead to the design of effective mitigation strategies and planning processes for sustainable agriculture.     

Compilation and application of a primary PM2.5 emissions inventory with high sectoral resolution in Japan

To elucidate the macro-structure of the PM_2.5 emissions generated by Japan's economic activities, this paper presents an emission inventory of primary particles of PM_2.5 with high sectoral resolution based on the Japanese Input–Output Tables, comprising some 400 sectors. These primary PM_2.5 emissions were estimated by multiplying the estimated energy consumption associated with each fuel type by a PM₁₀ emission factor incorporating the technological level of dust collection in each sector and the mass ratio of PM_2.5 to PM₁₀. Non-energy emissions from agricultural open burning were also determined. Total PM_2.5 emissions in 2000 were 252 kt, 49% of which were due to mobile emission sources. Changes in total PM_2.5 emissions between 1990 and 2000 were also calculated. This showed that a substantial increase in energy sector emissions due to rising coal consumption was offset by a sharp decline in emissions from road vehicles and shipping vessels, resulting in an overall decrease in total emissions. In addition, the emissions induced by economic demand in each sector were quantified by means of input–output analysis, which revealed that demand for construction, foods and communications and services constituted the principal causes of real domestic emissions. An assessment of sectoral contributions to PM_2.5 emissions that takes into account the effects of human exposure, expressed as external costs, suggests that the contribution of transportation is greater than indicated on the grounds of direct emissions alone.     

Revitalization of Chinese’s manufacturing industry under the carbon neutral goal

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the manufacturing industry has been crucial for economic growth. China’s manufacturing activity began after China approved and opened legal reform to the rest of the world in 1978. There are usually three stages of development, including the catch-up period. At the same time, they reflect the private economic sector, manufacturing, and foreign exchange industries, and the opening up to the international markets. This advancement comes along with high energy consumption, leading to a high rate of pollution. Therefore, this study provides a detailed overview of the “Made in China 2025” pilot target and implementations of policies to achieve a carbon-neutral goal. We assessed the efficiency of implementing policies in the Chinese manufacturing sector and recommended decision-making policies to achieve the “Made in China 2025” plan and the 2030 carbon-neutral goal. The Quantitative Strategic Programming Matrix (QSPM) and SWOT analysis matrix were used to put forward some development strategies to transform and upgrade China’s manufacturing industry by combining relevant strategic theories. This study is significant in terms of energy-saving and carbon emission-reducing policy implementations for the Chinese manufacturing industry. In addition, we suggested some measures to achieve a sustainable environment in line with carbon-neutral policies.

     

A Multipurpose Flare Stack for Control of Chemical Process Wastes

Abstract

To test the effectiveness of California’s vehicle inspection/ maintenance (I/M) program, exclusive of vehicle-owner intervention, a fleet of more than 1,100 vehicles that previously had failed California’s Smog Check test were sent to randomly selected Smog Check stations in the Los Angeles area for covert inspections and repairs. The two-speed idle test was used for repairs. For those vehicles that were repaired at the first inspection, their FTP emission reductions were 25%, 14%, and 11% for hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), respectively, although emissions testing for NO_x was not performed at the Smog Check stations. Idle HC and CO emissions increased for 35% and 43% of the vehicles, respectively, after repairs. This data set shows that most vehicles that fail the Smog Check inspection are only marginal emitters, with 61% and 44% of the total potential for HC and CO emission reductions, respectively, coming from only 10% of the vehicles that currently fail the inspection. When the vehicles were rank-ordered by idle emissions from dirtiest to cleanest, emission reduction costs for the highest-emitting 10% of the fleet averaged $l,100/ton and $250/ton for HC and CO, respectively, attributing all the costs to each pollutant exclusively. For the remaining vehicles, costs increased dramatically.     

Air pollution reduction via use of green energy sources for electricity and hydrogen production

The implementation of renewable wind and solar energy sources instead of fossil fuels to produce such energy carriers as electricity and hydrogen facilitates reductions in air pollution emissions. Unlike from traditional fossil fuel technologies, air pollution emissions from renewable technologies are associated mainly with the construction of facilities. With present costs of wind and solar electricity, it is shown that, when electricity from renewable sources replaces electricity from natural gas, the cost of air pollution emission abatement is more than ten times less than the cost if hydrogen from renewable sources replaces hydrogen produced from natural gas. When renewable-based hydrogen is used instead of gasoline in a fuel cell vehicle, the cost of air pollution emissions reduction approaches the same value as for renewable-based electricity only if the fuel cell vehicle efficiency exceeds significantly (i.e., by about two times) that of an internal combustion vehicle. The results provide the basis for a useful approach to an optimal strategy for air pollution mitigation.     

Preliminary investigation of greenhouse gas emissions from the environmental sector in Taiwan

The United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (UNFCCC) asks their Parties to submit a National Inventory Report (NIR) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on an annual basis. However, when many countries are quickly growing their economy, resulting in substantial GHG emissions, their inventory reporting systems either have not been established or been able to be linked to planning of mitigation measures at national administration levels. The present research was aimed to quantify the GHG emissions from an environmental sector in Taiwan and also to establish a linkage between the developed inventories and development of mitigation plans. The "environmental sector" consists of public service under jurisdiction of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration: landfilling, composting, waste transportation, wastewater treatment, night soil treatment, and solid waste incineration. The preliminary results were compared with that of the United States, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and Korea, considering the gaps in the scopes of the sectors. The GHG emissions from the Taiwanese environmental sector were mostly estimated by following the default methodology in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guideline, except that of night soil treatment and waste transportation that were modified or newly developed. The GHG emissions from the environmental sectors in 2004 were 10,225 kilotons of CO2 equivalent (kt CO2 Eq.). Landfilling (48.86%), solid waste incineration (27%), and wastewater treatment (21.5%) were the major contributors. Methane was the most significant GHG (70.6%), followed by carbon dioxide (27.8%) and nitrous oxide (1.6%). In summary, the GHG emissions estimated for the environmental sector in Taiwan provided reasonable preliminary results that were consistent and comparable with the existing authorized data. On the basis of the inventory results and the comparisons with the other countries, recommendations of mitigation plans were made, including wastewater and solid waste recycling, methane recovery for energy, and waste reduction/sorting.     

Evaluating carbon emissions of China’s waste management strategies for building refurbishment projects: contributing to a circular economy

This study evaluates carbon emissions of construction and demolition (C&D) waste generated by building refurbishment, using a life cycle assessment approach through a case study project in China. Three waste management scenarios were developed for a building refurbishment project in the city of Suzhou. Scenario 1 is under the business-as-usual C&D waste management practice in China; scenario 2 is based on the open-ended 3R strategy, which focuses on the downstream impact of waste; and scenario 3 considers both the upstream and downstream impact of waste. The results reveal that the composition of the waste generated from building refurbishment projects is different from construction and demolition projects. In the life cycle of C&D waste management of building refurbishment projects, the refurbishment material stage generates the highest carbon emissions compared to the dismantlement, refurbishment construction, and refurbishment material end of life stages. Scenario 1 produces higher carbon emissions than scenario 2, but the difference is not significant in the whole life cycle of the building refurbishment project, whereas carbon emissions for scenario 3 are significantly less than both scenario 1 and scenario 2. The study finds the reason for this difference is that scenario 1 and scenario 2 are based on a linear economy that relies on unsustainable demand for raw materials, whereas scenario 3 is based on a circular economy that uses upcycled materials to substitute for raw materials and considers waste management from a cradle to cradle perspective. This study fills a research gap by evaluating carbon emissions of different waste management strategies for building refurbishment projects, which are expected to be an increasing portion of overall construction activity in China for the foreseeable future.

     

Air quality co-benefits of subnational carbon policies

To mitigate climate change, governments ranging from city to multi-national have adopted greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. While the location of GHG reductions does not affect their climate benefits, it can impact human health benefits associated with co-emitted pollutants. Here, an advanced modeling framework is used to explore how subnational level GHG targets influence air pollutant co-benefits from ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Two carbon policy scenarios are analyzed, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast US: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, and a Clean Energy Standard (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only. Results suggest that a regional CES policy will cost about 10 times more than a CAT policy. Despite having the same regional targets in the Northeast, carbon leakage to non-capped regions varies between policies. Consequently, a regional CAT policy will result in national carbon reductions that are over six times greater than the carbon reduced by the CES in 2030. Monetized regional human health benefits of the CAT and CES policies are 844% and 185% of the costs of each policy, respectively. Benefits for both policies are thus estimated to exceed their costs in the Northeast US. The estimated value of human health co-benefits associated with air pollution reductions for the CES scenario is two times that of the CAT scenario.

Implications: In this research, an advanced modeling framework is used to determine the potential impacts of regional carbon policies on air pollution co-benefits associated with ground level ozone and fine particulate matter. Study results show that spatially heterogeneous GHG policies have the potential to create areas of air pollution dis-benefit. It is also shown that monetized human health benefits within the area covered by policy may be larger than the model estimated cost of the policy. These findings are of particular interest both as U.S. states work to develop plans to meet state-level carbon emissions reduction targets set by the EPA through the Clean Power Plan, and in the absence of comprehensive national carbon policy.