Greenhouse gas fluxes and mitigation potential for managed lands in the Russian Federation

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - This work aims to assess the dynamics of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, as well as analyse the mitigation potential for...     

Greenhouse gas emission and its potential mitigation process from the waste sector in a large-scale exhibition

As one of the largest human activities, World Expo is an important source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG), and the GHG emission and other environmental impacts of the Expo Shanghai 2010, where around 59,397 tons of waste was generated during 184 Expo running days, were assessed by life cycle assessment (LCA). Two scenarios, i.e., the actual and expected figures of the waste sector, were assessed and compared, and 124.01 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq.), 4.43 kg SO₂-eq., 4.88 kg NO₃⁻-eq., and 3509 m³ water per ton tourist waste were found to be released in terms of global warming (GW), acidification (AC), nutrient enrichment (NE) and spoiled groundwater resources (SGWR), respectively. The total GHG emission was around 3499 ton CO₂-eq. from the waste sector in Expo Park, among which 86.47% was generated during the waste landfilling at the rate of 107.24 kg CO₂-eq., and CH₄, CO and other hydrocarbons (HC) were the main contributors. If the waste sorting process had been implemented according to the plan scenario, around 497 ton CO₂-eq. savings could have been attained. Unlike municipal solid waste, with more organic matter content, an incineration plant is more suitable for tourist waste disposal due to its high heating value, from the GHG reduction perspective.     

Greenhouse gas emission and its potential mitigation process from the waste sector in a large-scale exhibition

As one of the largest human activities, World Expo is an important source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG), and the GHG emission and other environmental impacts of the Expo Shanghai 2010, where around 59,397 tons of waste was generated during 184 Expo running days, were assessed by life cycle assessment (LCA). Two scenarios, i.e., the actual and expected figures of the waste sector, were assessed and compared, and 124.01 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq.), 4.43 kg SO₂-eq., 4.88 kg NO₃^--eq., and 3509 m³ water per ton tourist waste were found to be released in terms of global warming (GW), acidification (AC), nutrient enrichment (NE) and spoiled groundwater resources (SGWR), respectively. The total GHG emission was around 3499 ton CO₂-eq. from the waste sector in Expo Park, among which 86.47% was generated during the waste landfilling at the rate of 107.24 kg CO₂-eq., and CH₄, CO and other hydrocarbons (HC) were the main contributors. If the waste sorting process had been implemented according to the plan scenario, around 497 ton CO₂-eq. savings could have been attained. Unlike municipal solid waste, with more organic matter content, an incineration plant is more suitable for tourist waste disposal due to its high heating value, from the GHG reduction perspective.     

Greenhouse gas scenarios for Austria: a comparison of different approaches to emission trends

In the present paper, national and externally organized projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Austria were compared to gain insight on the underlying scenario data assumptions. National greenhouse gas emission trends extend until 2030, an assessment of European Union (EU) countries to 2050. In addition, data for 2000–2100 was extracted from the global emission database described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). By identifying trends in these projections, it was possible to produce (a) a long-term assessment of national scenarios until 2100, (b) an assessment of the ambition level toward national climate strategies, and (c) a standardized method to compare trends across countries. By extracting RCP data, Austrian’s methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide emissions up to 2100 could be projected for all sources as well as specific sectors. With respect to the RCP scenario emission data, national projections did not seem to employ the mitigation potentials available for the most stringent RCP scenario, RCP2.6. Comparing projections that supported the EU Climate Strategy 2030 with national projections revealed similar trends. Because RCP2.6 is the only scenario consistent with a 2 °C global warming target, and it is much more ambitious than any of the national or European projections, further measures will be required if Austria is to adequately contribute to this widely accepted policy goal.     

Livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions: impacts and options for policy makers

Research shows that livestock account for a significant proportion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global consumption of livestock products is growing rapidly. This paper reviews the life cycle analysis (LCA) approach to quantifying these emissions and argues that, given the dynamic complexity of our food system, it offers a limited understanding of livestock's GHG impacts. It is argued that LCA's conclusions need rather to be considered within a broader conceptual framework that incorporates three key additional perspectives. The first is an understanding of the indirect second order effects of livestock production on land use change and associated CO₂ emissions. The second compares the opportunity cost of using land and resources to rear animals with their use for other food or non-food purposes. The third perspective is need—the paper considers how far people need livestock products at all. These perspectives are used as lenses through which to explore both the impacts of livestock production and the mitigation approaches that are being proposed. The discussion is then broadened to consider whether it is possible to substantially reduce livestock emissions through technological measures alone, or whether reductions in livestock consumption will additionally be required. The paper argues for policy strategies that explicitly combine GHG mitigation with measures to improve food security and concludes with suggestions for further research.     

The potential of behavioural change for climate change mitigation: a case study for the European Union

Mainstream literature on climate change concentrates overwhelmingly on technological solutions for this global long-term problem, while a change towards climate-friendly behaviour could play a role in emission reduction and has received little attention. This paper focuses on the potential climate mitigation by behavioural change in the European Union (EU) covering many behavioural options in food, mobility and housing demand which do not require any personal up-front investment. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), capturing both their direct and indirect implications in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Our results indicate that modest to rigorous behavioural change could reduce per capita footprint emissions by 6 to 16%, out of which one fourth will take place outside the EU, predominantly by reducing land use change. The domestic emission savings would contribute to reduce the costs of achieving the internationally agreed climate goal of the EU by 13.5 to 30%. Moreover, many of these options would also yield co-benefits such as monetary savings, positive health impacts or animal wellbeing. These results imply the need for policymakers to focus on climate education and awareness programs more seriously and strategically, making use of the multiple co-benefits related with adopting pro-environmental behaviour. Apart from that, the relevance of behavioural change in climate change mitigation implies that policy-informing models on climate change should include behavioural change as a complement or partial alternative to technological change.     

Agricultural land abandonment and natural forest re-growth in the Swiss mountains: A spatially explicit economic analysis

Natural forest re-growth reflects a decline in traditional agricultural practices that can be observed worldwide. Over the last few decades, natural forest re-growth has replaced much of the agricultural land in the Swiss mountains. This is a region where forms of traditional cultivation have preserved unique landscapes and habitats of high ecological value. This study aimed to characterise the locations in the Swiss mountains where agricultural land has been abandoned and overgrown by trees and bushes. Therefore, multivariate statistical models based on geo-physical and socio-economic variables were developed. Land-use change data were taken from two nationwide land-use surveys carried out in the 1980s and 1990s. In order to obtain reliable models, neighbourhood effects and the group structure in our data were accounted for. For the latter a robust estimation technique known as cluster-adjustment was used.Results show that forest re-growth is largely restricted to former alpine pastures, land with grass and scrub vegetation and agricultural land with groups of trees at mid to high altitudes, steep slopes, stony ground and a low temperature sum. Some relationships were not as expected, e.g. many of the new forest areas were found to be relatively close to roads. A new finding from this study was that forest re-growth is largely restricted to regions with immigration, higher proportions of part-time farms as opposed to full-time farms and high farm abandonment rates. By accounting for neighbourhood effects, the model fit was improved. The considerable residual deviance of the models was interpreted as the result of undetected local characteristics, such as poor water availability, small-scaled topographic peculiarities (e.g. small trenches, stonewalls, soil damages by cattle) and the individual's motivation to abandon or maintain cultivation. The conclusion made was that general policy measures for the whole mountain area are not suitable for the prevention of land abandonment and forest re-growth, and that policy measures must pay more attention to local characteristics and needs.     

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX

A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses.     

Linkages between the energy and agricultural sectors: insights from European Union greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios

Over the past decade, the relationship between agricultural and energy markets has strengthened. Traditional energy sources have been increasingly replaced by energy from biomass, and this trend is expected to continue into the future. Consequently, an assessment of the efficiency of bioenergy policies requires a comprehensive analysis of both agricultural and energy markets. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of two detailed European Union (EU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation policies on the utilization of biomass for energy production and the implications for agricultural prices and trade. The consequences of a policy-induced shift from consumption of fossil to renewable energy are assessed under full consideration of interrelations between the energy and agricultural sectors. To this end, we combine an energy system model and an agricultural sector model by establishing a consistent interface between them. Depending on the ambition of the GHG emission reduction scenarios, the results indicate significant price increases. Furthermore, the increase in European demand for energy crops is to a substantial degree covered by additional imports. These results highlight that GHG emission mitigation policies enacted in a large economy like the EU cannot be considered without accounting for indirect effects in the rest of the world. They put the efficiency and also the effectiveness of such policies in general into question.     

Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO2 emissions and mitigation costs

The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change 15th Conference of the Parties Copenhagen Accord has been followed up by national pledges of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the year 2020 without specifying measures to enforce actions. As a consequence, the capacity of parties to fulfil their obligations is of basic interest. This article outlines the effects of full compliance with pledges on greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth, and trade. The study is based on the global computable general equilibrium model global responses to anthropogenic changes in the environment (GRACE) distinguishing between fossil and non-fossil energy use. Global emissions from fossil fuels in 2020 turn out to be 15 % lower than in a business as usual scenario and 3 % below the global emissions from fossil fuels in 2005. China and India increase their emissions to 1 % and 5 % above business as usual levels in 2020. India and Russia increase their net export of steel corresponding to around 30 and 45 % of their production levels in 2020. In spite of some leakage of energy intensive production also to China, we find that structural change remains the dominant factor behind the rapid reduction of CO₂ emission intensity in China towards 2020.     

Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia,Canada

Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO₂e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017–2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC’s greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO₂e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.     

Pursuing an integrated development and climate policy framework in Africa: options for mainstreaming

Climate change presents a major threat to the prospects for sustained economic development in Africa. In spite of this, climate change concerns do not feature prominently in the implementation of national and regional development programmes. The present paper identifies the likely trade-offs and synergies that may emerge from an integrated ‘development-climate’ approach to policy making. Also, the paper presents the case for the formulation and evaluation of an integrated policy approach based on four principle criteria, including; long-term environmental effectiveness, equity considerations, cost-effectiveness and the institutional compatibility of the policy combinations. What is more? The paper suggests specific options for mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation in various sectoral development agenda such as; agricultural intensification, poverty eradication, rural development, urban renewal, energy security of supply and trade. Given the wide divergence of socio-economic systems and the peculiar challenges faced by individual countries in the continent, further research is required on robust country-specific strategies for pursuing an integrated development-climate policy framework.     

The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND

This paper studies the effects of adaptation and mitigation on the impacts of sea level rise. Without adaptation, the impact of sea level rise would be substantial, almost wiping out entire countries by 2100, although the globally aggregate effect is much smaller. Adaptation would reduce potential impacts by a factor 10–100. Adaptation would come at a minor cost compared to the damage avoided. As adaptation depends on socio-economic status, the rank order of most vulnerable countries is different than the rank order of most exposed countries. Because the momentum of sea level rise is so large, mitigation can reduce impacts only to a limited extent. Stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations at 550 ppm would cut impacts in 2100 by about 10%. However, the costs of emission reduction lower the avoided impacts by up to 25% (average 10%). This is partly due to the reduced availability of resources for adaptation, and partly due to the increased sensitivity to wetland loss by adaptation.

EKC analysis for studying economic growth and environmental quality: a case study in China

Compared with the extensive research on the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in developed countries, there is a paucity of an empirical research on studying the relation for developing countries. Based upon the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, this paper develops regression models for investigating the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in China. The EKC analysis based on six pollution indices is illustrated with a case study in Jiaxing of Zhejiang, China.     

不同地区经济增长与环境污染关系的VAR模型分析——基于广州、佛山、肇庆经济圈的实证研究

利用向量自回归(VAR)计量技术对广州.佛山一肇庆(简称"广佛肇")经济圈各城市表征环境污染的指标(工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量和工业固废产生量)和表征经济增长的指标(人均GDP)的时序数据进行脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解分析,研究处于工业化后期的广州、佛山市及工业化前期的肇庆市经济发展与环境污染在时序维度上的关系及其...     

Hydrochar and synthetic natural gas co-production for a full circular economy implementation via hydrothermal carbonization and methanation:An economic approach

Herein we study the economic performance of hydrochar and synthetic natural gas coproduction from olive tree pruning. The process entails a combination of hydrothermal carbonization and methanation. In a previous work, we evidenced that standalone hydrochar production via HTC results unprofitable. Hence, we propose a step forward on the process design by implementing a methanation, adding value to the gas effluent in an attempt to boost the overall process techno-economic aspects. Three differen...     

Greenhouse gas emissions along a peat swamp forest degradation gradient in the Peruvian Amazon: soil moisture and palm roots effects

Tropical peatlands in the Peruvian Amazon exhibit high densities of Mauritia flexuosa palms, which are often cut instead of being climbed for collecting their fruits. This is an important type of forest degradation in the region that could lead to changes in the structure and composition of the forest, quality and quantity of inputs to the peat, soil properties, and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. We studied peat and litterfall characteristics along a forest degradation gradient that included an intact site, a moderately degraded site, and a heavily degraded site. To understand underlying factors driving GHG emissions, we examined the response of in vitro soil microbial GHG emissions to soil moisture variation, and we tested the potential of pneumatophores to conduct GHGs in situ. The soil phosphorus and carbon content and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio as well as the litterfall nitrogen content and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio were significantly affected by forest degradation. Soils from the degraded sites consistently produced more carbon dioxide (CO₂) than soils from the intact site during in vitro incubations. The response of CO₂ production to changes in water-filled pore space (WFPS) followed a cubic polynomial relationship with maxima at 60–70% at the three sites. Methane (CH₄) was produced in limited amounts and exclusively under water-saturated conditions. There was no significant response of nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions to WFPS variation. Lastly, the density of pneumatophore decreased drastically as the result of forest degradation and was positively correlated to in situ CH₄ emissions. We conclude that recurrent M. flexuosa harvesting could result in a significant increase of in situ CO₂ fluxes and a simultaneous decrease in CH₄ emissions via pneumatophores. These changes might alter long-term carbon and GHG balances of the peat, and the role of these ecosystems for climate change mitigation, which stresses the need for their protection.