Forest conservation and the clean development mechanism: Lessons from the Costa Rican protected areas project

Deforestation is currentlythe source of about 20% of anthropogenicCO₂ emissions. Avoided deforestationhas, nonetheless, been ruled out as a CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) category in theKyoto Protocol's first commitment period,because several methodological issues wereconsidered too difficult to resolve. Thispaper explores whether CDM issues such as(1) carbon quantification, (2)additionality and baseline setting, (3)leakage risks, (4) non-permanence risks,and (5) sustainable development can beadequately dealt with in large, diversifiedforest conservation projects. To this aim,it studies the case of the Costa RicanProtected Areas Project (PAP), anActivities Implemented Jointly (AIJ)project which was meant to consolidate thenational park system to avoiddeforestation, promote the growth ofsecondary forests and regenerate pastureson an area that, in total, covers 10% ofthe national territory. The case studyexamines how the issues mentioned abovehave been addressed in the project designand in the certification process. It isfound that baseline uncertainties are themajor problem in this case. Nonetheless,the case suggests the possibility toaddress CDM issues by specific requirementsfor project design and very conservativeand temporary crediting. Provided thatother case studies support this conclusion,eligibility of well-designed forestconservation projects under the CDM in thesecond commitment period may be worthconsidering, given the secondary benefitsof avoided deforestation.     

How sustainable are forestry clean development mechanism projects?—A review of the selected projects from India

This paper analyses social, economic and ecological issues affecting sustainability of the four selected forestry clean development mechanism (CDM) projects from India. Data from the group discussions and stakeholder interviews suggest that three out of the four projects are economically unsustainable for local people because of high opportunity cost of land and labour, and delayed and low benefits. The average opportunity cost of the land is 20000, 12000 and 9000 INR/ha/year in case of Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, India projects respectively, which is unlikely to be met through projected carbon revenues and other benefits. A significant number of farmers have already withdrawn their private lands in Haryana and Tamil Nadu projects. Very few of them have undertaken plantations on the private lands in the Himachal project. All the four projects have undertaken block plantations of predominantly fast growing species such as Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus hybrid), Casuarina (Casuarina equisettifolia) and Ailanthus (Ailanthus excelsa) for high growth and quick returns, which could have adverse social and ecological impacts over long term. There are social and institutional issues such as low participation of local communities, weak or non existing community institutions, inflexible design and rigid CDM rules, which affect sustainability of these projects. It has implications for other carbon forestry programmes such as Green India Mission and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) being rolled out at a large scale in the country. The rationale and significance of these programmes needs to be objectively reexamined in context of the issues affecting CDM projects.     

Consistency and comparability of estimation and accounting of removal by sinks in afforestation/reforestation activities

The Kyoto Protocol accounting system and its market mechanisms, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), are built on the key principle that emission and emission reduction units generated by afforestation/reforestation activities under national systems and projects are fully comparable, no matter their origin. Lack of consistency in the quality of emission and emission reduction units can undermine the environmental integrity of the climate stabilization actions. Therefore, it is the ambition that units generated in the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector are of similar quality with those from non-LULUCF sectors. In this paper, the authors pose the question of whether there is full estimation and accounting consistency between Annex I Party’s national GHG systems and CDM projects methodologies in the LULUCF sector, in terms accuracy, completeness, levels of uncertainty and permanence risk. We focus on methodological aspects related to the applicability and practicability of using approved afforestation/reforestation CDM methodologies; estimation, reporting and accounting rules; the small pools and sources issue, uncertainty of removal estimate; leakage and handling of non-permanence risk. We conclude that there is significant scope for improving the consistency of greenhouse gas emission accounting from land use activities in the post-2012 climate change agreement, between Annex I domestic and project activities. As well, we conclude that the preparation and implementation of project activities has to be made simpler by a project framework guideline, which is then adapted to any project circumstances.     

The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.     

Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has successfully demonstrated that market-based mechanisms can achieve some cost effective emissions reductions in developing countries. However the distribution of CDM projects has been extremely uneven across countries and regions, and a few technologies and sectors have dominated the early stages of CDM experience. This has caused some to question whether the CDM has fallen short of its potential in contributing to sustainable development. We review the broad patterns of CDM project approvals and evaluate 10 CDM projects according to their sustainability benefits. The difficulty of defining “sustainable development” and the process of defining criteria by individual non-Annex 1 governments has meant that sustainable development concerns have been marginalized in some countries. Given these observed limitations, we present possible CDM policy futures, focusing on the main proposals for a post-2012 climate regime. Five options for enhancing the sustainable development benefits in the CDM are discussed, including proactive approaches to favour eligibility of emission reduction projects which ensure such co-benefits.     

我国企业参与CDM的风险研究

企业是参与CDM的最基本的单位。企业的参与水平对实现《联合国气候变化框架公约》规定的气候目标具有重要作用。但是企业参与CDM的过程中在获得出售CERs资金的同时,又会承担一定的风险。本文对企业参与CDM的必要性和风险进行了研究,并就如何减少企业参与的风险提出部分建议。     

Technical Procedures for CDM Project Design

The success of CDM depends on active participation of public and private entities. In particular, participation of wide range of private companies is an important factor for the success. In order to promote the participation of private companies in the CDM project activities as project participants, the authors clarify the steps and technical issues involved in the CDM project design procedures in a step-by-step approach. The steps consist of outlining the project plans, identifying project impacts, defining a project boundary, estimating GHG emissions reduction/enhancement of removals, documenting the results of estimation, and designing of monitoring plans. The authors also propose guidance for project participants, especially for those not familiar with the CDM, which provides plain explanation of major technical issues. In order to further develop a complete guideline, it is necessary to integrate the outputs of the ongoing international initiatives concerning technical issues of CDM into the stepwise approach proposed in this paper. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

Will Simplified Modalities and Procedures Make More Small-Scale Forestry Projects Viable Under the Clean Development Mechanism?

Simplified modalities and procedures (M&P) are expected to increase the viability of small-scale project activities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). A small-scale afforestation or reforestation (AR) project is defined as a project removing less than 8 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per year. Depending on the project type and the method for measuring scale, 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year correspond to highly diverse areas, possibly ranging from 200 to 6000 ha. Using a model to calculate the minimum project scale above which the CDM is a positive financial incentive for eligible AR project activities, the paper analyzes whether a reduction of transaction costs under simplified M&P will be a sufficient incentive to motivate small-scale participation in the CDM. Model results show that, even under optimistic assumptions on carbon market conditions and transaction costs, small-scale project activities will not benefit from simplified M&P. Results also show that project activities removing more than 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year and registered as small-scale would be the ones that could benefit the most from simplified M&P. It is concluded that the participation of small-scale project activities to the CDM requires more than simplified M&P, the price of expiring Certified Emission Reductions being one of the most critical parameters.     

Application of the “Climafor” baseline to determine leakage: the case of Scolel Té

The acceptance of forestry-based project activities to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions has been subjected to a number of methodological questions to be answered, of which the most challenging are baseline establishment and identification of and measuring leakage. Here we pose hypotheses for and quantify leakage of the Scolel Té project in Chiapas, Mexico. In this project small-scale farmers are implementing forestry, agroforestry, and forest conservation activities, with carbon sequestration as one of the goals. The main leakage monitoring domain is defined as the area owned by the participating farmers or communities outside the area where the specific project activities take place. The null-hypothesis (no leakage) is that non-project land owned by the farmer or community will experience the same carbon stock changes as predicted by the regional baseline, specifically developed for the project. First we assessed the most likely causes and sources of leakage that may occur in the project. From this analysis, one type of leakage seems to be important, i.e., activity shifting. Second we estimated the leakage of a sample of participating farmers and communities. Actual land use was then compared with expected land use derived from the baseline. The Plan Vivo of each participant, complemented with readily available tools to identify the main sources and drivers of leakage are used to develop simple leakage assessment procedures, as demonstrated in this paper. Negative leakage was estimated to be negligible in this study. Incorporating these procedures already in the project planning stage will reduce the uncertainties related to the actual carbon mitigation potential of any forestry project.

造林/再造林CDM项目PDD编写中几个重要问题探讨

造林/再造林CDM项目PDD编写在整个CDM项目的实施上占有举足轻重的地位,由于造林/再造林CDM项目目前还处于起步阶段,其中的很多问题还亟待解决,这就造成了PDD编写中必然会存在很多不确定的问题。在造林/再造林CDM项目PDD编写整个流程中涉及到最重要的环节的问题则是解决其他问题的关键。在这些关键问题中包括三个非常重要的问题：基线,额外性,泄漏。本文对这三个问题分别进行阐述,并试着提出相应的解决方法予以探讨。     

A participatory approach to the establishment of a baseline scenario for a reforestation Clean Development Mechanism project

This paper is part of a two-year study to investigate the feasibility of initiating a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project in an indigenous community of Eastern Panamá, Ipetí-Emberá. We use participatory mapping and matrices as well as household surveys to develop a land-use/land-cover baseline scenario and examine the role of local participation in assessing land-use change. In Ipetí, land-use change has not occurred in a linear way over the last decades, and our data unveils socio-economic factors as potential key drivers of change. The concordance that we observed between geographic information and individual and collective perceptions of land-use change substantiates the possibility of using local knowledge in the establishment of baseline data for CDM projects. Our calculations suggest that the total carbon (C) stocks in the Tierra Colectiva (TC) of Ipetí-Emberá in 2004 represents a 47% reduction from the estimated C stock at the onset of settlement in the early 1970’s. Results from the participatory assessments predict that, in 2024 and in absence of a CDM project, the C stocks will decline from 301,859 t C in 2004 to 155,730 t C, which constitutes a reduction of 52%. The scenario with CDM estimates C stocks of 305,853 t C for 2024, a value slightly superior to the 2004 value. In the TC there is ground to believe that cattle ranching is likely to become an ever more important activity as the population is young and growing and cannot easily move elsewhere. Forests tend to be cleared for cultivation while pastures are established on short fallows. Our baseline scenario underlines the potential for a CDM project to make a significant difference in the future C stocks of this landscape.     

Millennium development goals and clean development: synergies in the Pacific

This paper addresses synergies between the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and considers how the CDM can facilitate the MDGs in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). To date, only 6 CDM projects have been registered in PICs, highlighting the ‘lose-lose’ business case that applies to this type of project development. This paper identifies constraints on and opportunities for CDM project development in PICs, and proposes a range of specific policy reform measures that could alter existing negative investment profiles. Key findings are that small-scale agricultural projects providing renewable energy from existing sources of biomass (currently seen as waste) are ideal candidates for CDM investment in PICs, and that the single most important reform to facilitate CDM activity and contribute to achieving the MDGs would be the implementation of a regional approach to CDM administration, in which a regional body became the designated CDM Authority for all states in the region. This would offset investment risk, improve governance transparency, and facilitate a targeted approach to sustainable development activities in the Pacific region.     

Baseline options and greenhouse gas emission reduction of clean development mechanism project in urban solid waste management

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was adopted in the Kyoto Protocol as a flexibility mechanism to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has been started with such projects as improving efficiency of individual technology. Although applying various countermeasures to urban areas has significant potentials for reducing GHGs, these countermeasures have not been proposed as CDM projects in the practical stage. A CDM project needs to be validated that it will reduce GHGs additionally compared with a baseline, that is, a predictive value of GHG emissions in the absence of the project. This study examined the introduction of solid waste incineration with electricity generation into three different cities, A, B and C. The combination of main solid waste treatment and fuel source are landfill and coal, respectively, in City A, incineration and natural gas in City B, and landfill and hydro in City C. GHG emission reductions of each city under several baseline options assumed here were evaluated. Even if the same technology is introduced, the emission reduction greatly varies according to the current condition and the future plan of the city: 1043–1406 kg CO₂/t of waste in City A, 198–580 kg CO₂/t in City B, and wide range of zero to over 1000 kg CO₂/tin City C. Baseline options also cause significant difference in the emission reduction even in the same city (City C). Incinerating solid waste after removing plastics by source separation in City B increased GHG emission reduction potential up to 730–900 kg CO₂/t, which enhances the effectiveness as a CDM project. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Smallholder Agroforestry Systems For Carbon Storage

Most smallholder agroforestry systems in Southeast Asia are tree- and species-rich systems producing non-wood and wood products for both home use and market sale. Due to their high biomass, these systems contain large carbon (C) stocks. While the systems of individual farmers are of limited size, on a per area basis smallholder systems accumulate significant amounts of C, equaling the amount of C stored in some secondary forests of similar age. Their ability to simultaneously address smallholders’ livelihood needs and store large amounts of C makes smallholder systems viable project types under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, with its dual objective of emissions reduction and sustainable development. Smallholder systems have not developed in areas where enabling conditions do not exist. A CDM project that facilitates a minimum threshold of enabling conditions that make smallholder agroforestation possible should qualify for C credits. To secure smallholder confidence, the agroforestry systems promoted through a CDM project must be socially and economically viable independent of C payments. To assure system productivity and profitability, projects should provide farmers with technical and marketing assistance. Additionally, project sites should meet the following preconditions: areas of underutilized low-biomass landuse systems available for rehabilitation; smallholders interested in tree farming; accessible markets for tree products; supportive local governments; sufficient infrastructure; and transparent and equitable relationships between project partners. Questions of leakage and additionality should not be problematic and can be addressed through the project design, establishment of quantifiable baseline data and facilitating enabling conditions. However, smallholder-focused CDM projects would have high transaction costs. The subsequent challenge is thus to develop mechanisms that reduce the costs of: (a) making information (e.g., technology, markets) more accessible to multiple clients; (b) facilitating and enforcing smallholder agreements and (c) designing feasible monitoring systems.     

CDM host country institution building

Contrary to earlier forecasts, the global greenhouse gas market will initially be characterised by low prices and a strong competition between the different Kyoto Mechanisms. The CDM involves higher transaction costs than the other mechanisms and has lost a considerable share of its ‘early start’ advantage due to the continuous delays in defining the CDM rules on the international level. Host countries will have to compete intensively for CDM investments. Thus the development of effective institutions is crucial to reap benefits from this market, especially if a unilateral strategy is chosen. Countries should develop approval criteria and sectoral priorities in a broad stakeholder consultation. Moreover, capacity building of local actors, information exchange as well as marketing has to be organised. Experience from several countries shows that clear competencies are crucial to get investor confidence. Long-term professional staff is also an important asset. Fights between ministries will scare off investors. The optimum institution will be a CDM Office that is independent but has full approval powers. A second-best solution is a two-tiered system. A CDM Board with representatives of ministries would define criteria and priorities whereas a CDM Secretariat would evaluate (and possibly approve) project proposals and do outreach and marketing. Small countries would preferably use the existing focal point of the UNFCCC and flexibly involve consultants if project proposalscome in. Even under an optimal institutional structure, CDM projects will only be implemented if financing and contractual issues can be resolved. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Optimisation of the mine closure process

The excitement and fanfare that surrounds the opening of a new mine is never present when it finally closes. Closure may be planned but most commonly, it is premature, occurring before ore (or coal) reserves are exhausted. The reasons why mines close are diverse and include economic, geological, geotechnical, regulatory, community and other pressures. Premature and planned mine closures can result in significant adverse impacts on the environment and community and need to be managed appropriately.The use of risk management techniques can help reduce these impacts. The closure risk model has significant potential as a tool for decision-makers to assess the major closure risks at individual mine sites in a structured, systematic manner both qualitatively and quantitatively. This, in turn, facilitates comparisons between the closure issues at a single site as well as between different mines. A team-based approach is essential to ensure that all of the risks are incorporated, and the use of an external facilitator, as is standard practice in risk assessments, helps to reduce subjective bias. The importance of community engagement during operation and the inevitable mine closure phases cannot be overstated. If ignored, an optimal closure outcome will not be achieved. The consequences of a poor consultation strategy are potentially severe in terms of community impacts. Mining companies that get it right will benefit from the support they receive from employees, landholders, local and state governments, and other stakeholders. Other benefits include significant cost savings and a competitive advantage for future exploration/mining activities.Even though closure issues are unique from mine-to-mine, it is possible to develop a series of principles to assist the company, government and community involved in the closure process to ensure maximum benefit for all parties involved.     

The role of co-operation between academia and policymakers for the development and use of sustainability indicators – a case from the Finnish Kymenlaakso Region

In this article, we analyze the co-operation between academia and other stakeholders in the development and use of sustainability indicators. The empirical case is a self-assessment of a Life-Environment project, ECOREG (2002–2004), in which eco-efficiency indicators were constructed for the Finnish Kymenlaakso Region. In the article the relationship between academia and local decision-makers in both the ECOREG Project and the activities thereafter is examined. Contrary to many sustainability indicator initiatives the ECOREG indicators have been updated and used after the original project ended. A main conclusion of the article is that the use of the indicators is largely influenced by how they were originally developed. More specifically, that knowledge was jointly produced instead of being merely transferred from academia to policymakers affected the relevance of the indicators as well as the capabilities of local actors to use, update and further develop the indicators.     

上海开发风电CDM项目的机遇分析

《京都议定书》的正式生效，促进了世界清洁发展机制（cDM）项目的迅速开发。由于上海经济发展迅速，能源消耗较大，有潜力进行CDM项目开发。上海电力是上海能耗较大的行业之一，应该积极进行CDM项目研究。文章分析了国家电力行业开发CDM的主导方向，根据已有方法学的选择原则。上海电力行业首选发展风电CDM项目。探讨了上海发展风力发电项目的潜力和可行性。以辉腾锡勒风电场CDM项目为例，介绍了我国风电CDM项目注册成功的经验。     

Clean Development Mechanism Potential and Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa lags far behind other regions in terms of the implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects due to several reasons. One of the reasons is a general perception that, since the region contributes very little to global GHG emissions, it also offers few opportunities to reduce these emissions. Using a bottom-up approach, this study investigates the technical potential of reducing GHG emissions from the energy sector in Sub-Saharan Africa through the CDM. The study finds that sub-Saharan Africa could develop 3,227 CDM projects, including 361 programs of activities, which could reduce approximately 9.8 billion tons of GHG emissions during the CDM project cycles. The study also estimates that the realization of this CDM potential could significantly enhance sustainable development in the region as it would attract more than US200 billion in investment and could generate US200 billion in investment and could generate US98 billion of CDM revenue at a CER price of US$10/tCO2. Another notable finding of the study is that the realization of this CDM potential could supply clean electricity by doubling the current capacity and thereby providing access of electricity to millions of people in the region. However, realization of this CDM potential is severely constrained by a number of financial, technical, regulatory and institutional barriers.