Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90–125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12–16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the “escapement” due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management.     

Defining ecologically relevant scales for spatial protection with long‐term data on an endangered seabird and local prey availability

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understanding how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range‐restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state‐space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries‐independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20–30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small‐scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive‐management, to confirm population‐level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without negative impacts on local fisheries.     

A Bayesian hierarchical model of Antarctic fur seal foraging and pup growth related to sea ice and prey abundance

We created a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to investigate ecosystem relationships between the physical ecosystem (sea ice extent), a prey measure (krill density), predator behaviors (diving and foraging effort of female Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, with pups) and predator characteristics (mass of maternal fur seals and pups). We collected data on Antarctic fur seals from 1987/1988 to 1994/1995 at Seal Island, Antarctica. The BHM allowed us to link together predators and prey into a model that uses all the data efficiently and accounts for major sources of uncertainty. Based on the literature, we made hypotheses about the relationships in the model, which we compared with the model outcome after fitting the BHM. For each BHM parameter, we calculated the mean of the posterior density and the 95% credible interval. Our model confirmed others' findings that increased sea ice was related to increased krill density. Higher krill density led to reduced dive intensity of maternal fur seals, as measured by dive depth and duration, and to less time spent foraging by maternal fur seals. Heavier maternal fur seals and lower maternal foraging effort resulted in heavier pups at 22 d. No relationship was found between krill density and maternal mass, or between maternal mass and foraging effort on pup growth rates between 22 and 85 days of age. Maternal mass may have reflected environmental conditions prior to the pup provisioning season, rather than summer prey densities. Maternal mass and foraging effort were not related to pup growth rates between 22 and 85 d, possibly indicating that food was not limiting, food sources other than krill were being used, or differences occurred before pups reached age 22 d.     

Local interactions between predators and prey call into question commonly used functional responses

Commonly used functional response models (Holling’s type I and type II models) assume that the encounter rate of a predator increases linearly with prey density, provided that the predator is searching for prey. In other other words, aN (a is the baseline encounter rate and N is prey density) describes the encounter rate. This study examined whether the models are adequate when predators and prey interact locally by using a spatially explicit individual based model because local interactions affect the spatial distribution of predators and prey, which also affects the encounter rate. Predators were assumed to possess a spatial perception range that influenced their foraging behavior (e.g., if a prey is in the perception range, the predator moves towards the prey). The effect of antipredator behavior by prey was also examined. The results suggest that prey and predator densities as well as handling time affect the baseline rate (i.e., parameter a) as opposed to the common assumption that the parameter is constant. The nature of model deviations depended on both the antipredator behavior and the predators’ perception range. Understanding these deviations is important as they qualitatively affect community dynamics.     

Influence of prey reserve capacity on predator–prey dynamics

In this article the dynamics of a predator and prey population has been modelled when a reserve is created to protect a certain number of prey population from predation. This investigation is essential to derive some guiding principles to conserve the prey population and also to understand the behaviour and dependence of predator population on the reserve capacity. The present study concerns analysis of a fairly general model and hence some of the existing results based on specific explicit models, like Lotka–Volterra model and Rosenzweig–MacArthur model, can be derived from this work. In this study, conditions have been derived for coexistence of predator and prey, and extinction of predators. Results are obtained for global stability of required equilibrium of the model. Also, a method is suggested to compute reserve capacity in order to drive the ecosystem state to a required level. The key results developed in this article have been illustrated using numerical simulation. These results can be interpreted in different contexts like resource conservation, pest management, bio-economics of a renewable resource, etc.     

Mean free-path length theory of predator–prey interactions: Application to juvenile salmon migration

Ecological theory traditionally describes predator–prey interactions in terms of a law of mass action in which the prey mortality rate depends on the density of predators and prey. This simplifying assumption makes population-based models more tractable but ignores potentially important behaviors that characterize predator–prey dynamics. Here, we expand traditional predator–prey models by incorporating directed and random movements of both predators and prey. The model is based on theory originally developed to predict collision rates of molecules. The temporal and spatial dimensions of predators–prey encounters are determined by defining movement rules and the predator's field of vision. These biologically meaningful parameters can accommodate a broad range of behaviors within an analytically tractable framework suitable for population-based models. We apply the model to prey (juvenile salmon) migrating through a field of predators (piscivores) and find that traditional predator–prey models were not adequate to describe observations. Model parameters estimated from the survival of juvenile chinook salmon migrating through the Snake River in the northwestern United States are similar to estimates derived from independent approaches and data. For this system, we conclude that survival depends more on travel distance than travel time or migration velocity.     

Predation affects the susceptibility of hard clam Meretrix lusoria to Hg-stressed birnavirus

Predator–prey interaction in aquatic ecosystem is one of the simplest drivers affecting the species population dynamics. Predation controls are recognized as important aspects of ecosystem husbandry and management. In this paper we investigated how predation control cause an increase in host growth in the abundance of hard clam (Meretrix lusoria) populations subject to mercury (Hg)-stressed birnavirus. Here we linked predator–prey relationships with a bioenergetic matrix population model (MPM) associated with a susceptible–infectious–mortality (SIM) model based on a host–pathogen–predator framework to quantify the predator effects on population dynamics of disease in hard clam populations. Our results indicated that relative high predation rates could promote the hard clam abundances in relation to predators that selectively captured the infected hard clam, by which the disease transmission was suppressed. The results also demonstrated that predator-induced modifications in host behavior could have potential negative or positive effects on host growth depending on relative species density and resource dynamics. The most immediate implication of this study for the management of aquatic ecosystem is that, beyond the potential for causing a growth in abundance, predation might provoke greater predictability in aquatic ecosystem species populations and thereby increase the safety of ecosystem production from stochastic environmental events.     

Predator and prey space use: dragonflies and tadpoles in an interactive game

Predator and prey spatial distributions have important population and community level consequences. However, little is known either theoretically or empirically about behavioral mechanisms that underlie the spatial patterns that emerge when predators and prey freely interact. We examined the joint space use and behavioral rules governing movement of freely interacting groups of odonate (dragonfly) predators and two size classes of anuran (tadpole) prey in arenas containing two patches with different levels of the prey's resource. Predator and prey movement and space use was quantified both when they were apart and together. When apart from predators, large tadpoles strongly preferred the high resource patch. When apart from prey, dragonflies weakly preferred the high resource patch. When together, large prey shifted to a uniform distribution, while predators strongly preferred the high resource patch. These patterns qualitatively fit the predictions of several three trophic level, ideal free distribution models. In contrast, the space use of small prey and predators did not deviate from uniform. Three measures of joint space use (spatial correlations, overlap, and co-occurrence) concurred in suggesting that prey avoidance of predators was more important than predator attraction to prey in determining overall spatial patterns. To gain additional insight into behavioral mechanisms, we used a model selection approach to identify behavioral movement rules that can potentially explain the observed, emergent patterns of space use. Prey were more likely to leave patches with more predators and more conspecific competitors; resources had relatively weak effects on prey movements. In contrast, predators were more likely to leave patches with low resources (that they do not consume) and more competing predators; prey had relatively little effect on predator movements. These results highlight the importance of investigating freely interacting predators and prey, the potential for simple game theory models to predict joint spatial distributions, and the utility of using model choice methods to identify potential key factors that govern movement.     

EcoTroph: Modelling marine ecosystem functioning and impact of fishing

EcoTroph (ET) is a model articulated around the idea that the functioning of aquatic ecosystems may be viewed as a biomass flow moving from lower to higher trophic levels, due to predation and ontogenetic processes. Thus, we show that the ecosystem biomass present at a given trophic level may be estimated from two simple equations, one describing biomass flow, the other their kinetics (which quantifies the velocity of biomass transfers towards top predators). The flow kinetic of prey partly depends on the abundance of their predators, and a top-down equation expressing this is included in the model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the impact on a virtual ecosystem of various exploitation patterns. Specifically, we show that the EcoTroph approach is able to mimic the effects of increased fishing effort on ecosystem biomass expected from theory. Particularly, the model exhibits complex patterns observed in field data, notably cascading effects and ‘fishing down the food web’. EcoTroph also provides diagnostic tools for examining the relationships between catch and fishing effort at the ecosystem scale and the effects of strong top-down controls and fast-flow kinetics on ecosystems resilience. Finally, a dynamic version of the model is derived from the steady-state version, thus allowing simulations of time series of ecosystem biomass and catches. Using this dynamic model, we explore the propagation of environmental variability in the food web, and illustrated how exploitation can induce a decrease of ecosystem stability. The potential for applying EcoTroph to specific ecosystems, based on field data, and similarities between EcoTroph and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) are finally discussed.     

Predators, prey, and transient states in the assembly of spatially structured communities

Ecological theory suggests that both dispersal limitation and resource limitation can exert strong effects on community assembly. However, empirical studies of community assembly have focused almost exclusively on communities with a single trophic level. Thus, little is known about the combined effects of dispersal and resource limitation on assembly of communities with multiple trophic levels. We performed a landscape-scale experiment using spatially arranged mesocosms to study effects of dispersal and resource limitation on the assembly dynamics of aquatic invertebrate communities with two trophic levels. We found that interplay between dispersal and resource limitation regulated the assembly of predator and prey trophic levels in these pond communities. Early in assembly, predators and prey were strongly dispersal limited, and resource (i.e., prey) availability did not influence predator colonization. Later in assembly, after predators colonized, resource limitation was the strongest driver of predator abundance, and dispersal limitation played a negligible role. Thus, habitat isolation affected predators directly by reducing predator colonization rate, and indirectly through the effect of distance on prey availability. Dispersal and resource limitation of predators resulted in a transient period in which predators were absent or rare in isolated habitats. This period may be important for understanding population dynamics of vulnerable prey species. Our findings demonstrate that dispersal and resource limitation can jointly regulate assembly dynamics in multi-trophic systems. They also highlight the need to develop a temporal picture of the assembly process in multi-trophic communities because the availability and spatial distribution of limiting resources (i.e., prey) and the distribution of predators can shift radically over time.     

Applications of Very High‐Resolution Imagery in the Study and Conservation of Large Predators in the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet due to the effects of climate change and commercial fishing for ecologically important krill and fish. Because sea ice loss is expected to be accompanied by declines in krill and fish predators, decoupling the effects of climate and anthropogenic changes on these predator populations is crucial for ecosystem‐based management of the Southern Ocean. We reviewed research published from 2007 to 2014 that incorporated very high‐resolution satellite imagery to assess distribution, abundance, and effects of climate and other anthropogenic changes on populations of predators in polar regions. Very high‐resolution imagery has been used to study 7 species of polar animals in 13 papers, many of which provide methods through which further research can be conducted. Use of very high‐resolution imagery in the Southern Ocean can provide a broader understanding of climate and anthropogenic forces on populations and inform management and conservation recommendations. We recommend that conservation biologists continue to integrate high‐resolution remote sensing into broad‐scale biodiversity and population studies in remote areas, where it can provide much needed detail. Aplicaciones de Imágenes de Muy Alta Resolución en el Estudio y Conservación de Grandes Depredadores en el Océano Antártico     

Effects of density-dependent dispersal behaviours on the speed and spatial patterns of range expansion in predator-prey metapopulations

Dispersal can strongly affect the spatiotemporal dynamics of a species (its spread, spatial distribution and persistence). We investigated how two dispersal behaviours, namely prey evasion (PE) and predator pursuit (PP), affect the dynamics of a predator-prey system. PE portrays the tendency of prey avoiding predators by dispersing into adjacent patches with fewer predators, while PP describes the tendency of predators to pursue the prey by moving into patches with more prey. Based on the Beddington predation model, a spatially explicit metapopulation model was built to incorporate PE and PP. Numerical simulations were run to investigate the effects of PE and PP on the rate of spread, spatial synchrony and the persistence of populations. Results show that both PE and PP can alter spatial synchrony although PP has a weaker desynchronising effect than PE. The predator-prey system without PE and PP expanded in circular waves. The effect of PE can push the prey to distribute in a circular ring front, whereas the effect of PP can change the circular waves to anisotropic expansion. Furthermore, weak PE and PP can accelerate the spread of prey while strong and disproportionate intensities slow down the range expansion. The effects of PE and PP further enhance the population size, break down the spatial synchrony and promote the persistence of populations.     

Linking predator and prey behaviour: contrasts between Antarctic fur seals and macaroni penguins at South Georgia

Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella and macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus are the two main land-based krill Euphausia superba consumers in the northern Scotia Sea. Using a combination of concurrent at-sea (predator observations, net hauls and multi-frequency acoustics), and land-based (animal tracking and diet analysis) techniques, we examined variability in the foraging ecology of these sympatric top predators during the austral summer and autumn of 2004. Krill availability derived from acoustic surveys was low during summer, increasing in autumn. During the breeding season, krill occurred in 80% of fur seal diet samples, with fish remains in 37% of samples. Penguin diets contained the highest proportion of fish in over 20 years of routine monitoring (46% by mass; particularly the myctophid Electrona antarctica), with krill (33%) and amphipods (Themisto gaudichaudii; 21%) also occurring. When constrained by the need to return and feed their offspring both predator species foraged to the northwest of South Georgia, consistent with an area of high macrozooplankton biomass, but fur seals were apparently more successful at exploiting krill. When unconstrained by chick-rearing (during March) penguins foraged close to the Shag Rocks shelf-break, probably exploiting the high daytime biomass of fish in this area. Penguins and seals are able to respond differently to periods of reduced krill abundance (in terms of variability in diet and foraging behaviour), without detriment to the breeding success of either species. This highlights the importance of myctophid fish as an alternative trophic pathway for land-based predators in the Scotia Sea ecosystem.     

Field evidence for pervasive indirect effects of fishing on prey foraging behavior

The indirect, ecosystem-level consequences of ocean fishing, and particularly the mechanisms driving them, are poorly understood. Most studies focus on density-mediated trophic cascades, where removal of predators alternately causes increases and decreases in abundances of lower trophic levels. However, cascades could also be driven by where and when prey forage rather than solely by prey abundance. Over a large gradient of fishing intensity in the central Pacific's remote northern Line Islands, including a nearly pristine, baseline coral reef system, we found that changes in predation risk elicit strong behavioral responses in foraging patterns across multiple prey fish species. These responses were observed as a function of both short-term ("acute") risk and longer-term ("chronic") risk, as well as when prey were exposed to model predators to isolate the effect of perceived predation risk from other potentially confounding factors. Compared to numerical prey responses, antipredator behavioral responses such as these can potentially have far greater net impacts (by occurring over entire assemblages) and operate over shorter temporal scales (with potentially instantaneous response times) in transmitting top-down effects. A rich body of literature exists on both the direct effects of human removal of predators from ecosystems and predators' effects on prey behavior. Our results draw together these lines of research and provide the first empirical evidence that large-scale human removal of predators from a natural ecosystem indirectly alters prey behavior. These behavioral changes may, in turn, drive previously unsuspected alterations in reef food webs.     

Tidal regime dictates the cascading consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of multiple predators on a marsh plant

Prey perception of predators can dictate how prey behaviorally balance the need to avoid being eaten with the need to consume resources, and this perception and consequent behavior can be strongly influenced by physical processes. Physical factors, however, can also alter the density and diversity of predators that pursue prey. Thus, it remains uncertain to what extent variable risk perception and antipredator behavior vs. variation in predator consumption of prey underlie prey-resource dynamics and give rise to large-scale patterns in natural systems. In an experimental food web where tidal inundation of marsh controls which predators access prey, crab and conch (predators) influenced the survivorship and antipredator behavior of snails (prey) irrespective of whether tidal inundation occurred on a diurnal or mixed semidiurnal schedule. Specifically, cues of either predator caused snails to ascend marsh leaves; snail survivorship was reduced more by unrestrained crabs than by unrestrained conchs; and snail survivorship was lowest with multiple predators than with any single predator despite interference. In contrast to these tidally consistent direct consumptive and nonconsumptive effects, indirect predator effects differed with tidal regime: snail grazing of marsh leaves in the presence of predators increased in the diurnal tide but decreased in the mixed semidiurnal tidal schedule, overwhelming the differences in snail density that resulted from direct predation. In addition, results suggest that snails may increase their foraging to compensate for stress-induced metabolic demand in the presence of predator cues. Patterns from natural marshes spanning a tidal inundation gradient (from diurnal to mixed semidiurnal tides) across 400 km of coastline were consistent with experimental results: despite minimal spatial variation in densities of predators, snails, abiotic stressors, and marsh productivity, snail grazing on marsh plants increased and plant biomass decreased on shorelines exposed to a diurnal tide. Because both the field and experimental results can be explained by tidal-induced variation in risk perception and snail behavior rather than by changes in snail density, this study reinforces the importance of nonconsumptive predator effects in complex natural systems and at large spatial scales.     

Predicting changes in the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, population at South Georgia

Variability in the Southern Ocean is frequently reflected in changes in the abundance of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba and subsequent effects on dependent predators. However, the nature and consequences of changes in krill population dynamics that accompany fluctuations in its abundance are essentially unknown. A conceptual model, developed from quantitative measures of krill length in the diet of predators at South Georgia from 1991 to 1997, allowed predictions to be made about the abundance and population structure of krill in 1998 and the consequences for predators. Consistent with model predictions, in 1998 there was a serial change in krill population structure, low krill biomass and low reproductive performance of predators. The change in the modal size of krill, from 56 mm in December to 42 mm in March, was apparently a result of the transport of krill into the region. This is the first occasion when the future status and structure of the krill population at South Georgia has been successfully predicted. By representing local krill population dynamics, which may also reflect large-scale physical and biological processes, predators have a potential key role as indicators of environmental variation in the Southern Ocean at a range of spatial scales. Received: 6 March 1999 / Accepted: 3 September 1999     

Effects of near‐future ocean acidification,fishing, and marine protection on a temperate coastal ecosystem

Understanding ecosystem responses to global and local anthropogenic impacts is paramount to predicting future ecosystem states. We used an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate the independent and cumulative effects of fishing, marine protection, and ocean acidification on a coastal ecosystem. To quantify the effects of ocean acidification at the ecosystem level, we used information from the peer‐reviewed literature on the effects of ocean acidification. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model for the Wellington south coast, including the Taputeranga Marine Reserve (MR), New Zealand, we predicted ecosystem responses under 4 scenarios: ocean acidification + fishing; ocean acidification + MR (no fishing); no ocean acidification + fishing; no ocean acidification + MR for the year 2050. Fishing had a larger effect on trophic group biomasses and trophic structure than ocean acidification, whereas the effects of ocean acidification were only large in the absence of fishing. Mortality by fishing had large, negative effects on trophic group biomasses. These effects were similar regardless of the presence of ocean acidification. Ocean acidification was predicted to indirectly benefit certain species in the MR scenario. This was because lobster (Jasus edwardsii) only recovered to 58% of the MR biomass in the ocean acidification + MR scenario, a situation that benefited the trophic groups lobsters prey on. Most trophic groups responded antagonistically to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and marine protection (46%; reduced response); however, many groups responded synergistically (33%; amplified response). Conservation and fisheries management strategies need to account for the reduced recovery potential of some exploited species under ocean acidification, nonadditive interactions of multiple factors, and indirect responses of species to ocean acidification caused by declines in calcareous predators.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.     

Chaos and pattern formation in a spatial tritrophic food chain

The model of Hastings and Powell describes a tritrophic food chain that exhibits chaotic dynamics. The model assumes that the populations are homogeneously mixed, so that the probability that any two individuals interact is uniform and space can be ignored. In this paper we propose a spatial version of the Hastings and Powell model in which predators seek their preys only in a finite neighborhood of their home location, breaking the mixing hypothesis. Treating both space and time as discrete variables we derive a set of coupled equations that describe the evolution of the populations at each site of the spatial domain. We show that the introduction of local predator–prey interactions result in qualitatively distinct dynamics of predator and prey populations. The evolution equations for the predators involve averages over the local density of preys, whereas the equations for the preys involve double averages, where the local density of both preys and predators appear. Our numerical simulations show that local predation also leads to spontaneous pattern formation and to qualitative changes in the global dynamics of the system. In particular, depending on the size of the predation neighborhoods, the chaotic strange attractor present in the original model of Hastings and Powell can be replaced by a stable fixed point or by an attractor of simpler topology.     

A simulation model to explore the response of the Gulf of Maine food web to large-scale environmental and ecological changes

A dynamic simulation model was constructed using outputs from a balanced Gulf of Maine (GOM) energy budget model as the initial parameter set. The model was structured to provide a recipient control set of dynamics, largely based off of flows to and from different biological groups. The model was used to produce Monte Carlo simulations that were compared (percent change in biomass) with basecase simulations for a variety of scenarios. Changes in primary production, large increases in pelagic and demersal fish biomass, increases in fishing mortality, and large increases in top predators such as baleen whales and pinnepids were simulated. These scenarios roughly simulated the potential impacts of climate change, altered fishing pressure, additional protected species mitigations, and combinations thereof. Results suggest that the GOM system is primarily influenced by bottom-up processes involving phytoplankton, zooplankton, and bacterial biomass. Pelagic and demersal fish were important in determining trends in some of the scenarios. Marine mammals, large pelagic fish, and seabirds have a minor role in the GOM system in terms of biomass flows among the ecosystem components. The system is resilient to large-scale change due, in part to many predator–prey linkages. However, major alterations could occur from sustained climate change, high fishing rates, and by combinations of these types of external forcing mechanisms.