Population, environment and poverty in Pakistan: linkages and empirical evidence

This study explores the interlinkages among population, environment and poverty and presents empirical evidence in a developing country like Pakistan. It gives alternative views on population environment linkages. It explains poverty trap, market based harmony, and dual effect of poverty on the basis of a link between population growth and natural resource degradation. In addition, the paper also highlights social and political instability through population-poverty-environment spiral. It also presents empirical evidence on population-environment-poverty nexus in Pakistan. It also compares environmental sustainability index and human development index for selected Asian countries. The paper also gives scores for different components of environmental sustainability index for Pakistan and compares these with India. The paper concludes that the causal relationship between poverty and environment works in both directions, often through changes in GDP and population. Population stress does not have any significant direct effect on all aspects of environmental status in Pakistan.

How developing countries can engage in GHG reduction: a case study for China

It has been clearly recognized that future global climate change will limit the possibilities for sustainable development in China. To minimize these negative effects, as a practical strategy, we suggest that the Chinese government engage in international cooperation as a key contributor in the prevention of global warming. This suggestion results from numerical estimations of China’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends accompanied with economic growth up to 2100. The results show that China’s gross domestic product (GDP), measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), may overtake the sum of the GDPs of the United States and Canada in 2020. It is predicted that GDP per capita may reach US$20,000 and $80,000 in 2050 and 2100, respectively; meanwhile, CO₂ emissions in China will increase from 6.6 billion tons (in carbon equivalent units) in 1990 to 54.6 billion tons in 2100. This means that the global peak concentration of GHG cannot be practically reduced without significant contributions from China. For international cooperation in mitigating global climate change, we introduce a new option, “per-capita emission restricted by assigned amount,” as an accounting rule for GHG reduction. This baseline classifies global CO₂ reduction actions into three categories: compulsory reduction, self-imposed reduction, and voluntary reduction. We suggest that China contribute to world CO₂ reduction according to the following timetable: voluntary reduction until 2012, self-imposed reduction until 2020, and compulsory reduction from 2020. The simulation results also indicate that China can benefit from this strategy in terms of improvements in its domestic economy and environment, for instance, by reducing fossil fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants.

Energy intensities and the impact of high energy prices on producing and consuming sectors in Malaysia

The increase in oil prices has put pressure on the global economy. Even economies that have a high degree of self-sufficiency concerning oil products are experiencing rising production costs and price increases for households energy use. Therefore, changes in energy policies are under consideration for countries highly dependent on imported energy as well as countries with a high degree of self-sufficiency. Examination of dependence on cheap energy sources for economic growth in different economic sectors is becoming more important as countries are trying to promote activities that are less energy intense. Among the policy changes under consideration, the adjustment of domestic energy subsidies is of particular interest. The effect of high energy prices on a fast growing economy, such as in Malaysia, is considerable, as the country will shift from being a net exporter of energy to a net importer in less than 10 years. Malaysia until recently has experienced increasing overall energy intensity and the growth up to 2,000 was quite high, especially for electricity intensity. A continued rise in energy intensity will be quite problematic in this new high oil price regime. This paper investigates the impact of rising energy prices on production costs for the different sectors of the Malaysian economy. Input–output (I–O) calculations demonstrate that the impact on the exporting component of the manufacturing sectors is less than for the average production. Therefore the production cost increase caused by, for example, an adjustment in electricity prices of 25% will result in less than 1/2% increase. As the competing countries in world markets are experiencing the same rise in energy costs, including electricity based on fossil fuels, there is no vital argument for not allowing domestic energy prices to adjust to the international price changes.

Europe–Middle East–North Africa cooperation for sustainable electricity and water

This report summarizes the results of two studies of electricity supply for Europe (EU), the Middle East (ME) and North Africa (NA) up to the year 2050. It shows that a transition to competitive, secure and sustainable supply of electricity and water is possible using renewable energy sources, efficiency gains and fossil fuel backup for balancing power. A strong cooperation between the EU and MENA for the market introduction of renewable energy and the interconnection of the electricity grids by high-voltage direct-current transmission are keys to the success and survival of the whole region. However, the necessary measures will take at least two decades to become effective. Therefore, adequate policy and economic frameworks for their realization must be introduced immediately. The importance of sustainable energy for the security of freshwater supplies in MENA is also described.

Evaluating the role of environmental quality in the sustainable rural economic development of England

The issue of the sustainable development of rural economies in England has recently received considerable attention. This is because many of the poorest areas in the country are rural, often of high environmental quality, but suffering from high unemployment and a lack of services and facilities. The rapid decline in agricultural incomes and in-migration of affluent urban workers since 1990 has exacerbated economic inequality in such areas. A number of factors have the potential to drive rural development and this paper applies, and considers, the feasibility of a method from the USA for combining economic and environmental variables in a regional growth model to examine the hypothesis that environmental quality is an important determinant of sustainable rural development in England. The model output suggests that, although environmental quality does play a role in sustainable rural development in England there are other, more important, factors driving development. These include business and communications infra-structure, the degree and opportunities for commuting and underlying employment prospects. The robustness and limitations of the method for combining economic and environmental variables is discussed in relation to the spatial interrelatedness of Local Authority Districts in England, and conclusions are drawn about areas for refinement and improvement of the method.

Energy–growth nexus revisited: an empirical application on transition countries

This study investigates the energy–growth nexus for transition countries analysing Granger causality between GDP growth per capita and energy use per capita. For this purpose, 17 countries located at Central and Eastern Europe and Caucasian region are chosen and a panel dataset consisting of these countries for the available period of 1990–2011 is studied. In the study, Granger causality is investigated using bootstrapped panel causality approach proposed by Konya (Econ Modell 23(6):978–992, 2006). The approach gives consistent results in case of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity of slope coefficients between countries. Causality is examined for two scenarios: one with a trend and one without a trend. The results reveal that, in general, there is no causality running between energy consumption and economic growth, yet there is causality running from energy consumption to economic growth for some countries and sign of the relationship is always negative. Therefore, increases in energy consumption harm economic growth.     

Carbon neutral Biggar: calculating the community carbon footprint and renewable energy options for footprint reduction

The objective of this research was to develop a community carbon footprint model that could be used to assess the size and major components of a community’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The town of Biggar aims to become Scotland’s first carbon neutral town. As expected for this rural community, car transport accounted for nearly half of the CO₂ emissions, with natural gas and electricity consumption resulting in a further 24% and 12% of total emissions, respectively, and air travel being the last major component at 10% of emissions. An assessment was also made of the wind and solar resources of the town. One large wind turbine would provide the town’s electricity, while three to four turbines would be needed to offset all CO₂ emissions. In contrast, offsetting by tree planting would require in the region of 2,000 ha of trees.

Governance, institutions and the environment-income relationship: a cross-country study

This paper examines the environment-income relationship in the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and explores the possible role that factors like governance, political institutions, socioeconomic conditions, and education play in influencing this relationship. The results suggest that the EKC exists for carbon dioxide emissions for cross-country data over the period 1984–2002. However, there is nothing automatic about this relationship; policies designed to protect the environment may be responsible for this phenomenon. Two other significant findings are: one, countries with better quality of governance, stronger political institutions, better socioeconomic conditions and greater investment in education have lower emissions; and two, only around 15% of the countries in the dataset have reached income levels high enough to be associated with an unambiguous decline in emissions. The implications of these results are discussed within the context of the international environmental policy arena and the Kyoto Protocol. One of the main objectives of this paper is to bridge the gap between studies conducted on the EKC and developments in the international environmental policy arena. As a final note this paper emphasizes that one needs to connect the body of knowledge on the EKC hypothesis to the international environmental policy arena, despite the apparent difficulty of doing so. One hopes that future studies will further build on this line of thought.

A heuristic for setting effective standards to ensure global environmental sustainability

Most environmental professionals and decision-makers, and certainly the public at large, hold the view that the integrity of earth’s natural environment will be conserved for posterity and sustainable development achieved if all the nations rigorously enforced their environmental and emission standards. It is argued in this paper that this view, sincerely held by many as an “axiomatic truth,” is mistaken and misplaced. This is because as a biogeochemical entity the Earth has limited self-regenerative capacity (SRC) to cope with anthropogenic pollution, and all kinds of environmental problems ensue when that limit is exceeded. Indeed, mounting environmental problems now occurring on all fronts amply testify to the fact that the limit has already been exceeded. They also provide necessary and sufficient proof that environmental and emission standards have been woefully inadequate for protecting earth’s natural environment and life-support systems. It is argued that true global environmental sustainability will be achieved, paving the way to true global sustainable development, if and only if global environmental and emission standards are set so that global anthropogenic pollution does not exceed the limit of earth’s natural SRC to cope with such pollution. These and related issues are discussed in this paper. A simple mathematical model using basic mathematics is also presented to explain how the phenomenon of “positive feedback” works in some of the environmental problems to exacerbate environmental degradation and progressively to erode nature’s SRC.

1949年以来中国环境与发展关系的演变

从IPAT方程出发,发现了环境影响随着经济发展或时间的演变依次遵循三个"倒U型"曲线规律,即环境影响强度的倒U型曲线、人均环境影响的倒U型曲线和环境影响总量的倒U型曲线。根据此规律,可以将该演化过程划分为四个阶段即:环境影响强度高峰前阶段、环境影响强度高峰到人均环境影响量高峰阶段、人均环境影响量高峰到环境影响总量高峰阶段以及环境影响总量稳定下降阶段。在环境演变的不同阶段,主要驱动力存在着明显的差异。在环境影响强度高峰前阶段,资源消耗或污染物排放增长更多地由资源或污染密集型技术进步驱动;在资源消耗或污染物强度高峰到人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰阶段,主要由经济增长驱动;而在人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰到资源消耗或污染物排放总量高峰阶段以及总量高峰以后的发展阶段,则主要由节约高效技术或污染减排技术进步来驱动。实证分析表明,中国目前环境与发展关系基本上处于经济增长主要驱动的环境影响强度高峰向人均环境影响高峰过渡阶段,这同时意味着中国要在短期内实现人均环境影响和环境影响总量高峰的跨越是异常困难的。     

Willingness to pay and demand elasticities for two national parks: empirical evidence from two surveys in Pakistan

Using survey-based data approach for modeling the demand for environmental goods/resources, this study estimates income and price elasticities of demand for improved environmental quality of two National Parks in Northern Pakistan. The study uses data from two studies. The estimates indicate that improved environmental quality effects can be described as a luxury and an ordinary and price elastic service. Confidence intervals show however that the classification as a luxury is not statistically significant. Income elasticities of willingness to pay are estimated for a broad range of environmental services. The study finds that income and willingness to pay vary directly and significantly. The elasticity estimates, in general, are greater than zero, but less than unity. The study concludes that environmental improvements are more beneficial to low-income groups than for high-income groups.

The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

Motivation of Japanese companies to take environmental action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions: an econometric analysis

To analyze the motivations of Japanese companies to take environmental actions to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we used FY2006 research data and questioned Japanese industries regarding their reduction of GHG emissions. Empirical investigations revealed that voluntary targets set by industry organizations, government requirements, and advance responses to possible future regulations can positively influence environmental actions for GHG emission reduction; however, cost reductions and corporate social responsibility fulfillment cannot.

The benefits of the Kyoto Protocol to developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol relies on incentive-based regulations layered underneath a global cap on net emissions of greenhouse gases. Within the Kyoto Protocol are opportunities and constraints for signatory nations. Of concern to developing nations are the constraints the Kyoto Protocol could place on future growth. We examine the constraints and the opportunities offered to developing countries within the Kyoto Protocol. By identifying the potential costs and benefits the Kyoto Protocol has to offer to developing countries and by examining the incentives each create, we hope to spark serious investigations into ways to minimize the potential costs of entering the Kyoto Protocol and take full advantage of the potential benefits.

The environmental impact of industrialization in East Asia and strategies toward sustainable development

The East Asian economy has been growing fast in recent years, and environmental stresses are building up rapidly. Transboundary air pollution, water shortages, drinking water contamination, freshwater and marine pollution, deforestation, climatic disasters, and other environmental problems are becoming serious threats to the well-being of people in this densely populated region. The ESI (environmental sustainability index) reported by the World Economic Forum in 2005 is a good indicator of the environmental status of the region; most East Asian countries ranked at the bottom. East Asia is not moving toward a sustainable society, and the environment will not sustain the current rate of economic development for long. The traditional culture of East Asia used to be sustainable, so we can learn much from our traditions. Land use should be planned from an ecological point of view so as to best preserve the land’s productivity and stability. There should be definite goals as to where and how much to preserve the three important ecological bases: forests, coastal wetlands and agricultural farms. The forest is the base for the terrestrial ecosystem, including flood control, water resources, and climate; the coastal wetland is the base for the marine ecosystem; farmland is the base for producing food. Within these defined goals, limits should be set on how much land can be utilized for activities like urban development, manufacturing, and recreation. Limits on the pollution load resulting from such activities should be set so as not to irreversibly damage the environment. Economic development should be planned to allow the use of energy and resources only after satisfying these constraints.

Sustainable engineering education in the United States

Sustainable engineering is a conceptual and practical challenge to all engineering disciplines. Although the profession has experience with environmental dimensions of engineering activities that in some cases are quite deep, extending the existing body of practice to sustainable engineering by including social and cultural domains is a significant and non-trivial challenge. Nonetheless, progress is being made, as a recent study undertaken by the Center for Sustainable Engineering in the United States demonstrates.

Urban water-related environmental transitions in Southeast Asia

This article reviews water-related urban environmental conditions in Southeast Asia. It argues that the development of urban environmental challenges in the region follows a unique pattern compared with those experienced in the now developed world. The new pattern is defined by the so called time–space telescoping of the development process. The process of time–space telescoping reduces the levels of income at which environmental challenges emerge and forces their appearance in a simultaneous fashion, as sets of problems. During previous eras, cities experienced sequential environmental transitions. Urban water-related environmental burdens emerged on local scales and expanded geographically and temporally in impact, with growing levels of affluence. Moreover, certain environmental challenges appeared later in economic growth because the technologies and practices that induced these problems emerged at higher levels of income. The article has two main findings. First, except for wealthy urban centers, for example Singapore, cities in the region are experiencing multi-scaled water burdens simultaneously. Second, low-income and middle-income cities are experiencing burdens at lower levels of income than did their contemporaries in the north.

More aid, better institutions, or both?

It has been nearly 20 years since a working definition for “sustainable development” was put forward by the World Commission on Environment and Development. The concept endures in the mission statements and frameworks of action of various societal actors, including those of neighborhood associations, metropolitan development authorities, environmental ministries, and United Nations (UN) specialized organizations, to name a few. Yet many observers doubt that sustainable development is occurring in poor countries. This failure, the critics contend, stems from miserly transfers of foreign aid. The extent to which inadequate aid is to blame for poor environmental/developmental outcomes is an open question. But vocal demands for increasing aid to meet sustainable development goals come from many parts of society and are persistent. Exhortations for more aid to help poor countries are noble, perhaps even justifiable, but there are understandable doubts about the wisdom of transferring large capital and technical resources to countries that are slow to adopt needed institutional reforms. Aid without institutional reform is a recipe for wasted resources and donor fatigue. Worse, it may enhance inequities of wealth and power in recipient countries. There are few illustrations to draw on demonstrating how institutionally impoverished societies are affected when they are compelled to absorb massive aid inputs over a short period––a remedy suggested by some prominent aid experts. As a proxy, it is valuable to examine instances where swift macroeconomic changes, spurred by external investment and export-led growth, has occurred without significant institutional development. The case of Equatorial Guinea and its sudden oil riches is examined to discern whether, in the absence of meaningful institutional reform, rapid and profound increases in foreign direct investment and export income enable poverty alleviation and sustainable development.

Social determinants of soil and water conservation in rural Kenya

Soil erosion is a major environmental problem and threat to rural development in Kenya. Numerous attempts to address the problem have apparently had little success. There are however some districts that have been very successful, notably Machakos. In this study we search for the factors that determine successful development in soil conservation such as social capital, human capital and market integration. One of our main results is that social capital measures are significant determinants of investment in soil conservation. A better understanding of the relevant mechanisms is essential for developing policies targeting improvement in natural resource management.

A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.