Land change in the southern Yucatán: case studies in land change science

The southern Yucatán Peninsular Region project was designed from the outset as an integrative, multidisciplinary program of study examining tropical deforestation in the largest track of seasonal tropical forest remaining in Mexico and in which smallholder agriculture and a major biosphere reserve are juxtaposed in regard to land uses and covers. Treating land as a coupled human–environment system, the project joins the remote sensing, environmental, social, and modeling sciences in a way that is now recognized as land change science. This paper introduces the project, the study region, and six papers that explore some of the coupled system dynamics in the region. These include the sub-regional variation in deforestation, the pan-regional adoption or anticipation of cattle ranching, the emergence of divergent household agricultural and overall livelihood strategies, the roles of cultural and household histories in agricultural livelihood choices, the temporal intensification of swidden cultivation and its implications for forest species, and carbon stocks across cultivation units, including a new econometric modeling application to forecast changes in these stocks.     

Understanding deforestation in the southern Yucatán: insights from a sub-regional, multi-temporal analysis

The southern Yucatán has been identified as a deforestation hot spot. Land-change studies document the extent of forest loss at a regional scale, and case studies provide insights into the drivers of deforestation at the household level. Those studies have paid minimal attention to sub-regional analysis, especially to discrete land-management units above the household level. This analysis of upland forest change addresses the range of variation in deforestation among 96 ejidos (communal lands) and the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, the two dominant land-tenure and land-management units in the region. Satellite imagery, census, and land-tenure data are used to establish the extent and location of deforestation patterns, and multivariate techniques are employed to identify biophysical and socioeconomic variables that explain such patterns. Results show that, for the 1984–1993 period, deforestation in the southern Yucatán was not as prevalent as implied by its hot spot designation. Three clusters of deforestation are identified. A logistic regression analysis establishes that size of forest holdings, population growth, and location in the precipitation gradient correlate with ejidos that experienced higher deforestation rates than the rest of the land-tenure units. For the 1993–2000 period, conservation programs and changes in the economic context of this “hollow frontier” contributed to reduce deforestation rates and extent. This analysis illustrates the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of much tropical forest change and caution that it should bring to simple formulations of modeling this change and prescribing policies to control it.     

Human–environment interactions: learning from the past

The analysis of palaeoenvironmental archives—sediments, archaeological remains, tree-rings, documents and instrumental records—is presented as a key element in the global scientific endeavour aimed at understanding human–environment interactions at the present day and in the future. The paper explains the need for the focus on palaeoenvironmental studies as a means of ‘learning from the past’, and presents the rationale and structure of the IGBP-PAGES Focus 5 programme ‘Past Ecosystem Processes and Human–Environment Interactions’. The past, as described through palaeoenvironmental studies, can yield information about pre-impact states, trajectories of recent change, causation, complex system behaviour, and provide the basis for developing and testing simulation models. Learning from the past in each of these epistemological categories is exemplified with published case-studies.     

Human–environment interactions: towards synthesis and simulation

Leaders of the PAGES Focus 5 programme ‘Past Ecosystem Processes and Human–Environment Interactions’ identify key issues for research on human–environment interactions for wider discussion. These include the need for long-term perspectives, the opportunities for maximising palaeoenvironmental research, the need for integration and regionalisation and the challenge of developing dynamic simulation models. A new organisational matrix for regional studies is outlined, based on a series of zonal/azonal regions and on the degree of human impact. Future priorities for palaeoenvironmental research include new studies in degraded human-dominated landscapes, highly-valued ecosystems and sites relevant to other IGBP Core Projects. Simulation of future human–environment interactions using modelling approaches that have been tested against long records lags behind global climate modelling, but cellular approaches for biogeophysical and multi-agent systems show promise.     

Agricultural livelihood transition in the southern Yucatán region: diverging paths and their accompanying land changes

Land change science has demonstrated that rural livelihoods around the world both drive and reflect changing environmental regimes and political economic/structural transformations. This article explores the relationship between increasingly globalized rural livelihoods and in-place land change, assessing results from social surveys of smallholding households in the southern Yucatán region. We examine evidence for a transition in agricultural livelihood strategies as smallholders adjust to changing political economic and institutional conditions, and link these transitioning strategies to land use changes. Based on household surveys in 1997 and 2003, we comparatively assess both changes in the selection of livelihood strategies and in the land use and cover impacts of those strategies. Our results indicate that although impacts of given strategies have changed little over this period, there are increasing proportions of households pursuing two divergent adjustment paths—one of agricultural withdrawal and one of agricultural intensification and commercialization. We investigate what sociodemographic characteristics differentiate the groups of households following distinct livelihood strategies. Our findings point to the possibility of simultaneous and contradictory land change outcomes as smallholders adjust in different ways to their intensified incorporation into global economies.     

On several issues regarding efforts toward a sustainable society

Environmental issues and the future sustainability of society are among the greatest concerns facing society today. How to formulate a pathway toward a sustainable society is a critical question. Several issues associated with this question are presented and discussed. First, a structuring of the issues is presented. The environment can be said to consist of three systems—the natural, social, and human—and their interactions; environmental problems may therefore be defined in terms of perturbations of the interactions among the three systems. A sustainable society can be realized by restoring these interactions. Next, the characteristics of the issues are discussed. Because environmental issues relate to the future, forecasts of the future are essential. Because it is impossible to predict the future with complete accuracy, however, we should develop a method of using information about the future with allowance for error. It should be noted that error characteristics differ according to their time-scale. Third, the relationship between environmental issues and society is discussed. To take collective action on these issues we need society-wide consensus, which requires a reliable and objective platform. Here, more attention must be paid to the distribution of knowledge across society, because scientific knowledge in a modern society tends to be monopolized by research organizations. The role of the media is therefore important. Another important factor is the commitment of the general public; user-friendly ways of galvanizing such commitment should be developed.

Spatial pattern of the effects of human activities on the land surface of China and their spatial relationship with the natural environment

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The human–land relationship changes with the development of human society. In the contemporary context in which human activities dominate this...     

Dynamics and sustainability of urban agriculture: examples from sub-Saharan Africa

Urban agriculture can have many different expressions, varying from backyard gardening to poultry and livestock farming. This article focuses on crop production on larger open spaces in cities of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and investigates the sustainability and dynamics of this type of land use, which is common on undeveloped plots particularly in lowlands, such as in inland valleys, or along urban streams or drains. An adapted version of the Framework for Evaluating Sustainable Land Management (FESLM) developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) was used to assess the sustainability of urban agriculture. As an example for dynamics, the spatio-temporal changes of open-space agriculture in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, are analyzed for the period from 1992 to 2005, and compared with data from other cities. Crop production on urban open spaces appears as a market-driven, highly productive and profitable phenomenon. However, it is often constrained by tenure insecurity and non-agricultural land demands. Also, the common use of polluted water limits the official support of irrigated urban farming. However, despite these constraints, the phenomenon of urban farming appears persistent and resilient to its changing environment, although individual farmers might have to shift to other sites when their plots are needed for construction. Open-space vegetable production in urban areas is a dynamic, viable and largely sustainable livelihood strategy, especially for poor urban dwellers. Spatio-temporal analysis shows that it is not a short-lived or transitional phenomenon—probably as long as it can maintain its comparative market advantage. However, its informal nature and resulting lack of political recognition need to be addressed.     

Resilience and collapse of artisanal fisheries: a system dynamics analysis of a shellfish fishery in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Analyzing different pathways by which social–ecological systems can loose resilience and enter trajectories of collapse constitutes an important aspect of our quest towards understanding resource sustainability. This paper’s goal was to better understand the effect of a particular class of disturbance—the accumulative effects of routine stressors—in the context of marine social–ecological systems. To that effect, we built a system dynamics model using empirically collected institutional and biological field data of an artisanal fishery in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Among our findings, we identified different scenarios under which even very small endogenous changes in the relationship between ecological and institutional variables can send a seemingly resilient system into a trajectory of collapse. We discuss why these types of disturbances are so difficult to prevent and be identified by the users of the resource, as well as potential strategies to address these challenges.     

Social and environmental trade-offs in tree species selection: a methodology for identifying niche incompatibilities in agroforestry

Natural resource degradation in highland regions is of increasing concern to the global community due to its role in aggravating poverty and the loss of environmental services to local and downstream users. The integration of trees into smallholder farming systems has been promoted as a means to enhance rural livelihoods while reversing the degradation of soil, water, biodiversity and related environmental services. Yet in addition to these benefits, negative impacts of trees on certain stakeholders or system components have also accompanied such efforts—suggesting that important trade-offs accompany afforestation. This paper presents a methodology for diagnosing problems stemming from cultivation of certain tree species in specific landscape niches. Data derived from the application of this methodology in two sites in the eastern African highlands are presented. Participatory diagnoses of landscape-level problems suggest that the negative impact of trees on water resource availability and crop yield are of critical concern to smallholder farmers. Ethnoecological data highlight the properties of different tree species that determine their suitability to specific farm and landscape niches. These data point to important opportunities for more socially- and environmentally-optimal integration of indigenous and exotic tree species into agricultural landscapes, and highlight the critical importance of local knowledge in forging solutions appropriate to contemporary realities.     

Adoption and adaptation of natural resource management innovations in smallholder agriculture: reflections on key lessons and best practices

Many smallholder farmers in vulnerable areas continue to face complex challenges in adoption and adaptation of resource management and conservation strategies. Although much has been learned from diverse experiences in sustainable resource management, there is still inadequate understanding of the market, policy and institutional failures that shape and structure farmer incentives and investment decisions. The policy and institutional failures exacerbate market failures, locking smallholder resource users into a low level equilibrium that perpetuates poverty and land degradation. Improved market access that raises the returns to land and labor is often the driving force for adoption of new practices in agriculture. Market linkages, access to credit and availability of pro-poor options for beneficial conservation are critical factors in stimulating livelihood and sustainability-enhancing investments. Future interventions need to promote joint innovations that ensure farmer experimentation and adaptation of new technologies and careful consideration of market, policy and institutional factors that stimulate widespread smallholder investments. Future projects should act as ‘toolboxes’, giving essential support to farmers to devise complementary solutions based on available options. Addressing the externalities and institutional failures that prevent private and joint investments for management of agricultural landscapes will require new kinds of institutional mechanisms for empowering communities through local collective action that would ensure broad participation and equitable distributions of the gains from joint conservation investments. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Contour Farming Based on Natural Vegetative Strips: Expanding the Scope for Increased Food Crop Production on Sloping Lands in Asia

In the agriculture of the future, there is a compelling place for agroecologically-based practices alongside practices based on the best available chemical, genetic, and engineering components. This paper explores this issue in the context of the development and spread of a conservation farming system based on natural vegetative contour buffer strips in smallholder production systems in southeast Asia. Farmers adapted contour hedgerow farming practices into a simpler, buffer-strip system as a labor-saving measure to conserve soil and sustain yields on steeply sloping cropland in Claveria, Mindanao, Philippines. Permanent-ridge tillage systems were also adapted to smallholder farming systems by researchers. Natural vegetative buffer strips resulted in gradually increasing yields, with an estimated benefit of 0.5t/ha/crop. They were seen to increase land values, facilitate investment in more intensive and profitable cropping systems, and expand the land base for food crop agriculture. They induced an institutional innovation of farmer-led Landcare organizations, which have spread this and other agroforestry practices to thousands of households in the southern Philippines.     

Climate change adaptation in European river basins

This paper contains an assessment and standardized comparative analysis of the current water management regimes in four case-studies in three European river basins: the Hungarian part of the Upper Tisza, the Ukrainian part of the Upper Tisza (also called Zacarpathian Tisza), Alentejo Region (including the Alqueva Reservoir) in the Lower Guadiana in Portugal, and Rivierenland in the Netherlands. The analysis comprises several regime elements considered to be important in adaptive and integrated water management: agency, awareness raising and education, type of governance and cooperation structures, information management and—exchange, policy development and—implementation, risk management, and finances and cost recovery. This comparative analysis has an explorative character intended to identify general patterns in adaptive and integrated water management and to determine its role in coping with the impacts of climate change on floods and droughts. The results show that there is a strong interdependence of the elements within a water management regime, and as such this interdependence is a stabilizing factor in current management regimes. For example, this research provides evidence that a lack of joint/participative knowledge is an important obstacle for cooperation, or vice versa. We argue that there is a two-way relationship between information management and collaboration. Moreover, this research suggests that bottom-up governance is not a straightforward solution to water management problems in large-scale, complex, multiple-use systems, such as river basins. Instead, all the regimes being analyzed are in a process of finding a balance between bottom-up and top–down governance. Finally, this research shows that in a basin where one type of extreme is dominant—like droughts in the Alentejo (Portugal) and floods in Rivierenland (Netherlands)—the potential impacts of other extremes are somehow ignored or not perceived with the urgency they might deserve.     

Climate change adaptation: factors influencing Chinese smallholder farmers’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent

Understanding how individuals perceive their ability to adapt to climate change is critical to understanding adaptation decision-making. Drawing on a survey of 483 smallholder farmer households in the Loess Plateau region of China, we examine the factors that shape smallholder farmer perceptions of their ability to adapt to climate change and their stated intent to do so. We apply a proportional odds ordered logistic regression model to identify the role that determinants of adaptive capacity play in shaping smallholders’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent. Our study provides further evidence that self-efficacy beliefs are a strong, positive predictor of adaptation intent. Our study suggests that human capital, information and technology, material resources and infrastructure, wealth and financial capital, and institutions and entitlements all play an important role in shaping smallholder perceived self-efficacy, while state-society dependencies may reduce smallholder perceived self-efficacy. In addition, our study suggests that perceiving climate change risks and impacts do not necessarily lead to an intention to adapt. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating both the objective determinants of smallholders’ adaptive capacity and their subjective perceptions of these objective determinants into future climate change adaptation programs and policies in order to facilitate adaptive actions. Identifying factors that cause individuals to have a low estimation of their adaptive ability may allow planned adaptation interventions to address these perceived limitations and encourage adaptive behavior.     

21世纪前期湖南可持续发展的工业化对策研究

湖南是我国中部农业精华地带的组成部分，长期以来，由于受资源禀赋、地理区位、国家政策导向和原有基础等多重影响，形成了传统农业发达而工业发展相对滞后的区域经济。21世纪前期，为实现经济总量的快速增长和区域经济质量的提升，追赶上东部经济发达地区，湖南提出了工业化带动的区域经济战略。由于现阶段国内外经济环境已经发生了较大的变化，加之在科技发展、资源结构和区域经济实力等方面存在与东部沿海发达地区较大的差异，湖南的工业化必须在对原有传统工业化战略有所扬弃的基础上，形成具有自身特色的可持续发展的工业化战略。战略的基本点表现为：(1)将优势传统农业产业进行工业化改造，实现高新技术与传统产业的结合；(2)打破城乡户籍隔离体制，依托城镇化的率先突破，带动工业化发展；(3)高度警觉工业化可能产生的负效应，分类推进，实现不同地区可持续发展的工业化战略。     

Social and ecological facets of pest management in Honduran subsistence agriculture: implications for IPM extension and natural resource management

In subsistence farming systems of the developing world, adoption of resource-conserving practices such as integrated pest management (IPM) is often strikingly low. This has partially been ascribed to researchers’ limited understanding of how technologies develop at the interface of the systems’ social and ecological components. In Honduras (Central America), there exists concern about limited adoption and diffusion of IPM technologies in certain smallholder production systems. In this study, we determine social and ecological drivers of IPM adoption in subsistence maize production in the country’s hillside environment. Honduran small-scale maize production is typified by a key insect pest (the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda) being partly kept at bay through action of a diverse natural enemy complex, including ants, social wasps, carabid beetles, and spiders. Local agricultural landscapes, primarily shaped through shifting cultivation, provide key resources to maintain this natural enemy diversity. These local ecological conditions and related natural enemy abundance strongly influence farmers’ agroecological knowledge and pest management practices. In the meantime, farmer practices are also affected by local communication networks, which help validate and spread IPM concepts and technologies. Based on our findings, we advocate a holistic approach to improve IPM extension through mapping of agroecological opportunities, visualization of regional patterns in farmer knowledge, and associated priority setting. Local IPM capacity could be built through institutional strengthening and adaptive comanagement, while IPM training should be linked with natural resource management initiatives. These approaches may eventually improve the way IPM is delivered to small-scale farmers who operate in the ecologically diverse environments of the tropics.     

Aerobic spore-forming bacteria from the region of salt mining

Seven strains of Gram-positive microorganisms capable of forming endospores have been isolated from soils of the region of potassium salt mining (Berezniki, Perm krai) by the method of enrichment cultures. Their typing by means of REP- and BOX-PCR has shown that four strains—I23 (= VKM V-2504), I26 (= VKM V-2505), I27, and I28—are of the same genogroup (type I), while strains SN501 (= VKM V-2508), I10b (= VKM V-2507), and I12b (= VKM V-2506) represent three different genogroups (types II, III, and IV, respectively). A phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences has shown that strains I10b and SN501 belong to the genus Paenibacillus, and the remaining strains, to the genus Bacillus. These bacteria are tolerant of high salinity and alkalinity: they can grow at pH 7.0–9.0 and NaCl content of 90–110 g/l in the culture medium. They are also capable of utilizing diesel fuel and individual aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons.     

Effect of biotic factors on growth and survival of the Oriental river prawn <Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrobrachium nipponense</Emphasis> (De Haan) in warm-water aquaculture

Biotic factors such as intraspecific competition, stocking density, and parameters of feeding have been compared with respect to their effect on the growth and survival of monosex and mixed populations of the Oriental river prawn Macrobrachium nipponense (De Haan) in warm-water aquaculture. The results suggest that biotic factors—in the present case, social interactions and, to some extent, the efficiency of food assimilation—may be more effective than genetic factors in controlling differences in the size composition of the population.