Phast validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for pressurised carbon dioxide releases

The consequence modelling package Phast examines the progress of a potential incident from the initial release to the far-field dispersion including the modelling of rainout and subsequent vaporisation. The original Phast discharge and dispersion models allow the released substance to occur only in the vapour and liquid phases. The latest versions of Phast include extended models which also allow for the occurrence of fluid to solid transition for carbon dioxide (CO₂) releases.As part of two projects funded by BP and Shell (made publicly available via CO2PIPETRANS JIP), experimental work on CO₂ releases was carried out at the Spadeadam site (UK) by GL Noble Denton. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases (vapour storage). The CO₂ was stored in a vessel with attached pipework. At the end of the pipework a nozzle was attached, where the nozzle diameter was varied.This paper discusses the validation of Phast against the above experiments. The flow rate was predicted accurately by the Phast discharge models (within 10%; considered within the accuracy at which the BP experimental data were measured), and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately (well within a factor of two) by the Phast dispersion model (UDM). This validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.     

Validation of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases

This paper discusses the validation of discharge and subsequent atmospheric dispersion for both unpressurised and pressurised carbon dioxide releases using the consequence modelling package Phast.The paper first summarises the validation of the Phast dispersion model (UDM) for unpressurised releases. This includes heavy gas dispersion from either a ground-level line source (McQuaid wind-tunnel experiments) or an area source (Kit-Fox field experiments). For the McQuaid experiments minor modifications of the UDM were made to support line sources. For the Kit Fox experiments steady-state and 20-s finite-duration releases were simulated for both neutral and stable conditions. Most accurate predictions of the concentrations for finite duration releases were obtained using the UDM Finite Duration Correction method.Using experiments funded by BP and Shell and made available via DNV's CO2PIPETRANS JIP, the paper secondly summarises the validation of the Phast discharge and dispersion models for pressurised CO₂ releases. This modelling accounted for the possible presence of the solid CO₂ phase following expansion to atmospheric pressure. These experiments included both high-pressure steady-state and time-varying cold releases (liquid storage) and high-pressure time-varying supercritical hot releases. Both the flow rate and the concentrations were found to be predicted accurately.The above validation was carried out with no fitting whatsoever of the Phast extended discharge and dispersion models.     

Modelling of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for carbon dioxide releases

This paper discusses the modelling of the discharge and subsequent atmospheric dispersion for carbon dioxide releases using extensions of models in the consequence modelling package Phast. Phast examines the progress of a potential incident from the initial release to the far-field dispersion including the modelling of rainout and subsequent vaporisation. The original Phast discharge and dispersion models allow the released chemical to occur only in the vapour and liquid phases. As part of the current work these models have been extended to also allow for the occurrence of liquid to solid transition or vapour to solid transition. This applies both for the post-expansion state in the discharge model, as well as for the thermodynamic calculations by the dispersion model. Solid property calculations have been added where necessary. The above extensions are generally valid for fluid releases including CO₂. Using the extended dispersion formulation, a sensitivity study has been carried out for mixing of solid CO₂ with air, and it is demonstrated that solid effects may significantly affect the predicted concentrations.     

Sub-cooled and flashing liquid jets and droplet dispersion I. Overview and model implementation/validation

Many accidents involve two-phase releases of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. This paper describes the results of a third phase of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The aim of the project is to increase the understanding of the behaviour of sub-cooled non-flashing and superheated flashing liquid jets, and to improve the prediction of initial droplet size, droplet dispersion and rainout.Phase III of the JIP first included scaled experiments for materials with a range of volatilities (water, cyclohexane, butane, propane and gasoline). These experiments were carried out by Cardiff University including measurements of flow rate and initial droplet size across the full relevant range of superheats. See the companion paper II for further details of these experiments and the derivation of new refined correlations for droplet size distribution and Sauter Mean Diameter. Furthermore large-scale butane experiments were carried out by INERIS (France) to ensure that for more realistic scenarios the derived droplet size correlations are accurate.Model validation and model improvements were carried out by DNV Software, including validation of release rate and initial droplet size against the above scaled and large-scale experiments. New correlations for droplet size distribution and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) were implemented into the Phast discharge model. These were compared against a range of other droplet size and rainout correlations published in the literature, in conjunction with validation against an extensive set of experiments. It was shown that the new droplet size correlation agrees better against experimental data than the existing Phast correlation. To further improve the rainout prediction, the Phast dispersion model (UDM) was also extended to allow simultaneous modelling of a range of droplet sizes and distributed rainout (rather than rainout at one point).     

Two-phase jet releases,droplet dispersion and rainout I. Overview and model validation

Many accidents involve two-phase releases of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. This paper describes the results of the fourth phase of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The objective of Phase IV of the JIP was to generate experimental rainout data for non-flashing experiments, and to develop recommendations for the best methodology to predict rainout [total rainout mass and its spatial distribution (‘distributed’ rainout)].Phase IV of the JIP first included rainout experiments by the UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) for sub-cooled releases of water and xylene with a range of orifice sizes and stagnation pressures. See the companion paper II for further details. Secondly model validation was carried out by DNV Software for these experiments using different correlations for the initial droplet size (Sauter Mean Diameter, SMD), i.e. the CCPS SMD correlation and the Phase III JIP SMD correlation. The validation includes flow rates, droplet size, distributed rainout and cloud temperature drop. Subsequently validation was considered for a wider range of experiments from the literature (sub-cooled and superheated releases) for both SMD and total rainout. Adopted rainout methods comprised both methods including explicit modelling of the droplets (using an extended version of Phast dispersion model UDM), as well as more simple methods based on rainout correlations without droplet modelling. Recommendations are made for the most accurate droplet size and rainout modelling. A modified CCPS UDM droplet size correlation has been shown to agree best against experimental rainout data.     

Are dispersion models suitable for simulating small gaseous chlorine releases?

Dispersion models are mostly validated on the basis of historical dispersion experiments. The latter imply large quantities of hazardous products (flammable or toxic gases), and are dedicated to study the dispersion of the resulting clouds on great distances from the source to reach a better knowledge of the different phases of gas dispersion (slumping, creeping, passive dispersion…).However, dispersion models have hardly been validated on small releases and therefore require more validation on small plumes of dangerous gases. Indeed, what is their reliability in case of accidents involving small amounts (e.g., chlorine leakages at swimming pools’ installations), and for small distances downwind the gas source? This information is of prime interest in so far as small releases are more likely to occur than larger ones.This paper reports on chlorine small-scale dispersion experiments and deals with the comparison between experimental data of ground level concentrations in the plume and predicted concentrations obtained from several dispersion models.     

模式搜索算法在毒气泄漏中的源强反算

基于泄漏源下风向的浓度监测数据并结合大气扩散模式建立反算模型,以确定泄漏源的位置和强度。以扩散模式仿真的浓度数据与监测数据的匹配度作为目标函数,将反演问题转化为优化问题,利用模式搜索算法迭代优化。以高斯模型为例验证了算法的可行性,结果表明利用探测器提供的测量浓度值,模式搜索算法能够在较短时间内搜索到最优解,在计算复杂性或时间上较梯度型算法和智能优化算法有一定优势。该算法能够及时而准确地反算出泄漏源强度和位置,为事故的应急响应与救援提供依据。     

A dynamic approach for evaluating the consequences of toxic gas dispersion in the chemical plants using CFD and evacuation modelling

Accidental releases of toxic gas in the chemical plants have caused significant harm to the exposed occupants. To evaluate the consequences of these accidents, a dynamic approach considering the gas dispersion and behavior evacuation modelling has been proposed in this paper. This approach is applied to a hypothetical scenario including an accidental chlorine release in a chemical plant. CFD technique is utilized to calculate the time-varying concentration filed and evacuation modelling is used to obtain the evacuation routes. The exposure concentrations in the evacuation routes are calculated by using the code of data query. The integrated concentration toxic load model and probit model are used to calculate the probability of mortality of each occupant by using the exposure concentrations. Based on this dynamic approach, a new concept of average probability of mortality (APM) has been proposed to quantify the consequences of different accidental scenarios. The results show that APM decreases when the required detection time decreases or emergency evacuation mode is implemented. The impact of the detection time on APM becomes small as the wind speed increases. The effect of emergency evacuation mode is more obvious when the release occurs in an outdoor space.     

Evaluation of multi-phase atmospheric dispersion models for application to Carbon Capture and Storage

A dispersion model validation study is presented for atmospheric releases of dense-phase carbon dioxide (CO₂). Predictions from an integral model and two different Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models are compared to data from field-scale experiments conducted by INERIS, as part of the EU-funded CO₂PipeHaz project.The experiments studied consist of a 2 m³ vessel fitted with a short pipe, from which CO₂ was discharged into the atmosphere through either a 6 mm or 25 mm diameter orifice. Comparisons are made to measured temperatures and concentrations in the multi-phase CO₂ jets.The integral dispersion model tested is DNV Phast and the two CFD models are ANSYS-CFX and a research and development version of FLACS, both of which adopt a Lagrangian particle-tracking approach to simulate the sublimating solid CO₂ particles in the jet. Source conditions for the CFD models are taken from a sophisticated near-field CFD model developed by the University of Leeds that simulates the multi-phase, compressible flow in the expansion region of the CO₂ jet, close to the orifice.Overall, the predicted concentrations from the various models are found to be in reasonable agreement with the measurements, but generally in poorer agreement than has been reported previously for similar dispersion models in other dense-phase CO₂ release experiments. The ANSYS-CFX model is shown to be sensitive to the way in which the source conditions are prescribed, while FLACS shows some sensitivity to the solid CO₂ particle size. Difficulties in interpreting the results from one of the tests, which featured some time-varying phenomena, are also discussed.The study provides useful insight into the coupling of near- and far-field dispersion models, and the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches. These findings contribute to the assessment of potential hazards presented by Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) infrastructure.     

A risk assessment methodology for high pressure CO2 pipelines using integral consequence modelling

This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for high pressure CO₂ pipelines developed at the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) as part of the EU FP7 CO2Pipehaz project. Until recently, risk assessment of dense phase and supercritical CO₂ pipelines has been problematic because of the lack of suitable source term and integral consequence models that handle the complex behaviour of CO₂ appropriately. The risk assessment presented uses Phast, a commercially available source term and dispersion model that has been recently updated to handle the effects of solid CO₂. A test case pipeline was input to Phast and dispersion footprints to different levels of harm (dangerous toxic load and probit values) were obtained for a set of pipeline specific scenarios. HSL's risk assessment tool QuickRisk was then used to calculate the individual and societal risk surrounding the pipeline. Knowledge gaps that were encountered such as: harm criteria, failure rates and release scenarios were identified and are discussed.     

Influence of wind speed profile and roughness parameters on the downwind extension of vulnerable zones during dispersion of toxic dense gases

The accidental release of toxic chemicals, which are heavier than air and stored under pressure, may create an emergency scenario in an industrial plant. The extension of vulnerable distance in the downwind direction is an important criterion in framing an emergency management plan of that industrial area. There are several studies showing the role of surface level meteorological and topographical features on its propagation and dispersion just after its release from a container. In the present study, vertical variation of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer and surface roughness parameter have been considered to study their roles on the impact of downwind extension of vulnerable distances. A catastrophic release from a tonner having 900 kg of liquid chlorine has been considered, and SAFETI Micro developed by DNV Technica, UK has been utilized in the consequence analysis of this release. The analysis results have been explained for various atmospheric stability classes and surface wind speeds.     

Methodology for global sensitivity analysis of consequence models

A methodology is presented for global sensitivity analysis of consequence models used in process safety applications. It involves running a consequence model around a hundred times and using the results to construct a statistical emulator, which is essentially a sophisticated curve fit to the data. The emulator is then used to undertake the sensitivity analysis and identify which input parameters (e.g. operating temperature and pressure, wind speed) have a significant effect on the chosen output (e.g. vapour cloud size). Performing the sensitivity analysis using the emulator rather than the consequence model itself leads to significant savings in computing time.To demonstrate the methodology, a global sensitivity analysis is performed on the Phast consequence model for discharge and dispersion. The scenarios studied consist of above-ground, horizontal, steady-state discharges of dense-phase carbon dioxide (CO₂), with orifices ranging in diameter from ½ to 2 inch and the liquid CO₂ stagnation conditions maintained at between 100 and 150 bar. These scenarios are relevant in scale to leaks from large diameter above-ground pipes or vessels.Seven model input parameters are varied: the vessel temperature and pressure, orifice size, wind speed, humidity, ground surface roughness and height of the release. The input parameters that have a dominant effect on the dispersion distance of the CO₂ cloud are identified, both in terms of their direct effect on the dispersion distance and their indirect effect, through interactions with other varying input parameters.The analysis, including the Phast simulations, runs on a standard office laptop computer in less than 30 min. Tests are performed to confirm that a hundred Phast runs are sufficient to produce an emulator with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Increasing the number of Phast runs is shown to have no effect on the conclusions of the sensitivity analysis.The study demonstrates that Bayesian analysis of model sensitivity can be conducted rapidly and easily on consequence models such as Phast. There is the potential for this to become a routine part of consequence modelling.     

An improved model for heavy gas dispersion using time-varying wind data: Mathematical basis,physical assumptions,and case studies

This study developed an improved model for the dispersion of released toxic gases, SLABi, based on the widely used model SLAB. Two major improvements enhanced the model's ability to represent observations. First, SLAB was upgraded to account for temporal variation in wind vectors. Thus, real-time changes in meteorological conditions can be considered in dispersion forecasting. Second, a source term module was developed and embedded in SLABi to standardize the procedure of emission calculation. Both the standard SLAB model and the SLABi model were applied to a case study to evaluate the impact of time-varying winds on the dispersion of released gases. The results showed that meteorology has a significant influence on the dispersion of released gases. The SLABi model can provide decision makers with timely and accurate guidance, so as to minimize hazards to people and the environment.     

Ammonia large scale atmospheric dispersion experiments in industrial configurations

A programme of large-scale experiments for atmospheric dispersion was carried out by INERIS over a period extending from December 1996 to April 1997. The objectives of the test campaign were to measure anhydrous ammonia concentrations in a range of few meters to 2 km from the release, in order to generate data to be used to improve 2-phase discharge and dispersion modelling.

The discharges were released from a 6-tonne storage tank of pressurised liquid ammonia and through a discharge device with an outlet diameter of 2 in. Fifteen trials were carried out with various release configurations corresponding to industrial situations (impinging jets on the ground and on a wall at various distances, release through a flange without seal…). The quantity of ammonia discharged from the liquid phase varied according to the tests, from 1.4 to 3.5 tons for durations between 7 and 14 min and, therefore, at flow rates between 2 and 4.5 kg/s. Approximately 200 sensors were settled downwind to measure ammonia concentrations and temperature in the plume. These tests showed that for discharges with identical flow rates the distances corresponding to the same concentration vary a lot according to the configurations. These distances tend to be reduced by the presence of obstacles or retention dikes that collected liquid ammonia. In the paper, the main experimental results are presented. In order to enable the comparisons with numerical predictions, more detailed information are given in [Bouet R. (1999). Ammoniac—Essais de dispersion atmosphérique à grande échelle. INERIS rapport, ref INERIS-DRA-RBo-1999-20410 (available at http://www.ineris.fr/recherches/recherches.htm).     

Cushioning the impact of toxic release from runaway industrial accidents with greenbelts

The three aspects of accidents in chemical process industries which cause most serious damage—explosions, fires, and toxic releases—can all be controlled to some extent if greenbelts are present around the affected industry. We have recently developed and validated a system of methodologies for greenbelt design. In this paper we present the application of these models in designing greenbelts and forecasting their role in cushioning the impact of accidental release of toxic gases. With properly located and designed greenbelts as much as 33% of the accidental release of SO₂, 43% of H₂S, and 51% of NH₃ under stable atmospheric conditions (in which the dispersion is very slow and the release thus has maximum toxic impact) can be absorbed.     

Design of a system for real-time modelling of the dispersion of hazardous gas releases in industrial plants 2. Accidental releases from storage installations

This paper is the second part of a research programme concerning the modelling capabilities of accidental releases of heavier-than-air toxic gases. The existing theory, which includes the strength of the source and the subsequent development of the released cloud under representative environmental conditions, is described. Comparison of the ZZB-2 system predictions with field data from the Desert Tortoise and Lyme Bay V, ammonia and chlorine releases, shows excellent agreement at distances between ≈ 200 m and a few kilometres from the source. The correlation between observed and predicted cloud concentrations, was in all cases significant at a confidence level better than 95%.     

基于GIS的有毒气体储罐泄漏扩散及其过程模拟

为动态模拟有毒气体储罐泄漏扩散事故（toxic gas vessel leakage and dispersion,以下简称为TLD）的扩散过程,基于高斯点源瞬时泄漏模型,添加时间因子,将TLD的泄漏过程转换为一系列瞬时点源泄漏的叠加过程,从而获得任意时刻、任意位置的有毒气体浓度分布方程。以某氯气泄漏事故为例,模拟了有毒气体的扩散过程。结果表明,在初始阶段有毒气体储罐泄漏扩散的影响范围是逐步增大的;泄漏持续到一定时间,扩散过程趋于稳定;若假设泄漏条件不变,则此后的扩散过程类似于连续泄漏,影响范围保持不变。经与ALOHA软件的计算结果对比,两者在泄漏5分钟以后的模拟结果基本一致,本文所述模型模拟计算结果可信。     

Underwater LNG release test findings: Experimental data and model results

An underwater LNG release test was conducted to understand the phenomena that occur when LNG is released underwater and to determine the characteristic of the vapor emanating from the water surface. Another objective of the test was to determine if an LNG liquid pool formed on the water surface, spread and evaporated in a manner similar to that from an on-the-surface release of LNG.A pit of dimensions 10.06 m × 6.4 m and 1.22 m depth filled with water to 1.14 m depth was used. A vertically upward shooting LNG jet was released from a pipe of 2.54 cm diameter at a depth of 0.71 m below the water surface. LNG was released over 5.5-min duration, with a flow rate of 0.675 ± 0.223 L/s. The wind speed varied between 2 m/s and 4 m/s during the test.Data were collected as a function of time at a number of locations. These data included LNG flow rate, meteorological conditions, temperatures at a number of locations within the water column, and vapor temperatures and concentrations in air at different downwind locations and heights. Concentration measurements were made with instruments on poles located at 3.05 m, 6.1 m and 9.14 m from the downwind edge of the pit and at heights 0.46 m, 1.22 m, and 2.13 m. The phenomena occurring underwater were recorded with an underwater video camera. Water surface and in-air phenomena including the dispersion of the vapor emanating from the water surface were captured on three land-based video cameras.The lowest temperature recorded for the vapor emanating from the water surface was −1 °C indicating that the vapor emitted into air was buoyant. In general the maximum concentration observed at each instrument pole was progressively at higher and higher elevations as one traveled downwind, indicating that the vapor cloud was rising. These findings from the instrument recorded data were supported by the visual record showing the “white” cloud rising, more or less vertically, in air. No LNG pool was observed on the surface of water. Discussions are provided on the test findings and comparison with predictions from a previously published theoretical model.