基于FAHP的航空维修安全风险管理研究

航空维修对于保障飞行安全至关重要,如何进行航空维修安全风险管理是需要研究的问题.为此应用模糊层次分析法(FAHP),基于"人-机-环-管-接口"的理论,研究了影响航空维修安全的各种影响因素.利用三角模糊数并通过专家判断来构建三角模糊互补判断矩阵.按照层次结构模型和模糊层次分析法的步骤,对各影响因素进行了层次单排序和总排序,并把结果进行了分级和排序.结果表明,影响维修安全的主要因素为企业的规章制度、安全文化和维修人员的惯性违章等航空维修应该重点改善这3个因素并兼顾其他影响因素.研究表明,模糊层次分析法有助于确定安全风险管理的重点.     

A comprehensive framework for assessing and selecting appropriate scaffolding based on analytic hierarchy process

Problem: Bamboo scaffolding has been widely used in South China, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia for many years. Bamboo scaffolding is more economical, but its safety record is relatively poor. Conversely, metal scaffolding is more expensive, but its use in these regions has increased in recent years because it is relatively safe. The assessment and selection of the most appropriate type of scaffolding for a particular construction project is always a concern for project managers. Method: This paper suggests a comprehensive assessment framework that enables project managers to take a number of major quantitative and qualitative factors into consideration when making scaffolding decisions. This framework is based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology and a survey among project managers in Hong Kong. Results: The research reveals that the overall performance of metal scaffolding is believed to be better than bamboo scaffolding. A sensitivity analysis has also been conducted to investigate the impact of various factors on the final decisions. Impact on Industry: The proposed assessment framework can be used as a supporting tool for project managers in the selection of scaffolding for their projects.     

基于层次分析（AHP）的山东林火风险区划研究

利用RS和GIS构建山东森林火险区划模型,模型采取4类指标:第一类是森林火灾发生和蔓延的气象条件,选用代表干湿状态的多年近地面平均气温和近地面空气比湿;第二类是森林燃烧物质基础,林火行为主体的森林植被类型和植被覆盖度;第三类是高程、坡度和坡向等森林火灾发生和蔓延的地形条件;第四类是距居民点距离、距道路距离和人口素质(农民纯收入指数)等火源条件。分析2001-2010年10年间各类指标因子与火点分布关系,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定火险因子权重构建了山东林火风险区划,用2011-2012年火烧迹地信息进行验证,其中火点落在大于或高于三级占到了95%以上。     

基于FAHP的岗位交叉培训在民航安全管理中的应用

通过分析民航岗位安全培训的现状,发现培训内容仅局限于员工自身岗位的工作内容,而忽略了对于相关岗位之间衔接内容进行系统的培训,这非常不利于不同岗位间的协调;基于此提出了民航岗位交叉培训,通过对民航岗位间的具体关系进行分析,确定出需要进行交叉培训的岗位,利用FAHP模糊层次分析法选择出具体岗位之间的交叉培训方案,从而使民航系统内的岗位交叉培训更为系统化,使得民航系统安全管理更加行之有效。     

基于层次分析法的机车行车安全评价研究

铁路运输的基本动力是机车，机车行车安全对整个铁路运输的安全生产有着十分重要的作用。在机车行车安全中，影响因素错综复杂且人为因素较多。针对这一特点，从系统工程的观点出发，提出采用层次分析法对机车行车安全进行安全评价，并通过机车冒进信号这一实例，探讨了层次分析法作为一种便捷有效的安全评价方法应用于机车行车安全评价中的可行性。     

基于AHP的列车司机非技术技能综合评价模型

列车司机的非技术技能对保证驾驶安全、降低人因事故发生概率有至关重要的影响。为了客观、准确地评价列车司机的非技术技能,从决策能力、人际能力、自我管理和情景意识4个维度通过问卷对非技术技能的指标进行筛选,得到11个列车司机非技术技能指标;然后使用层次分析法建立非技术技能综合评价递阶层次模型,为了获得各层指标权重,结合群决策方法建立各层的判断矩阵,获得各层指标的权重,最终构建了列车司机非技术技能综合评价模型。该模型既可以分析导致人因事故的非技术技能因素,也能够用于列车司机的评价、选拔和培训。     

基于改进贴近度法的水质监测点优化布设

贴近度法作为一种系统优化方法已被广泛应用于水质监测点优化中,然而此方法存在几方面的问题:一是仅考虑空间因素而未考虑时间因素对区域监测重要性的影响;二是用各指标监测数据平均值进行计算,从而导致聚类效果较差;三是未考虑指标权重对测点优化布设的影响。为此,将层次分析法与贴近度法相结合,提出了基于改进贴近度法的水质监测点优化布设方案。应用此方法对某引水明渠水质监测点进行优化布设,结果表明,改进方法有效提高了聚类效果,易于进行水质监测点的排序与分类。     

On the use of criteria based on the SMART acronym to assess quality of performance indicators for safety management in process industries

Management of safety, and barriers in particular, includes using information expressing performance, i.e. use of safety performance indicators. For this information to be useful, the indicators should demonstrate adequate quality. In other words, they should satisfy some predefined set of quality criteria. Without showing adequate quality, the indicators are generally unable to provide sufficient support for barrier management, which could result in poor decisions. In this article, the use of the SMART criteria is considered to assess the quality of safety performance indicators in process industries. SMART being an acronym for ‘specificity’, ‘measurability’ or ‘manageability’, ‘achievability’, ‘relevancy’ and ‘time-based’, covering five key aspects and criteria for assessing the quality of an indicator. A discussion on whether the indicators are able to demonstrate adequate quality by satisfying these criteria has been conducted. The finding is that all of the SMART criteria should be satisfied for a safety performance indicator to demonstrate acceptable quality and to be regarded as useful to support barrier management decision-making. However, it has also been observed that including the ‘M’ criterion in the assessment of quality is not needed. When all the other criteria are satisfied there is no way the conclusions could be misleading as a result of measurability or manageability aspects. Hence, for safety performance indicator quality, only four of the criteria are assessed and suggested for such situations to shorten the acronym to ‘STAR’. A key safety indicator used in downstream process facilities, i.e. ‘dangerous fluid overfilling events’, motivated from the 2005 Texas City refinery accident, is used to illustrate the situation. The indicator is also applied to another incident, the Buncefield oil storage depot's accident in 2005, to provide a broader context for using it. The findings in this article could also be applied beyond the context studied. This means that, despite focusing on safety indicators in the process industries, the findings are considered as relevant and applicable to other types of performance indicators and to other energy industries.     

一种基于层次分析法的危险化学品源安全评价综合模型

危险化学品源的安全评价是安全生产管理中的一项重要内容.目前用于危险化学品源安全评价与分级的常用方法有后果分析法、道指数法、蒙德指数法以及使用临界系数判别重大危险源的方法等.在实际应用中,单独使用某一方法时,由于存在各种片面性问题而得不到满意的评价结果; 几种方法同时使用时,其评价指标、评价结果以及结果的形式又会互相冲突.为解决上述问题,建立了基于层次分析法的综合评价模型.首先,根据安全评价要求构建3层次的评价体系,在各层次中构造判断矩阵,并计算4种常用方法相对综合评价模型的置信度; 其次,对各方法统一危险分级标准,均采用危险分数划定危险级别,并取各危险分数的加权平均值--综合危险分数作为综合评价模型下的危险源分级标准.采用综合评价模型可消除单一方法进行评价时的片面性和偏差,同时,评价结果的一致化使得判断危险化学品源的危险级别以及由此采取相应级别的管理措施成为可能,将更有利于实际安全生产管理指导.     

煤矿企业脆弱性评估的AHP-RS组合权重法

在阐述脆弱性的研究现状、基本概念和评价模型的基础上,构建了脆弱性评价模型,并针对具体的煤矿企业应急管理体系进行脆弱性评估,列出脆弱性评估的具体指标体系。在综合考虑主、客观因素的影响条件下,运用AHP-RS组合权重法和均等权重法分别确定一级指标和二级指标的权重,得出脆弱性指数。进而分析了该矿区的脆弱性程度及具体指标在系统脆弱性中所占比重大小,为煤矿企业应急管理脆弱性评估提供了一种新的定量评估方法,有利于全面掌握煤矿企业突发事件应急管理能力。     

Building urban gas process safety management (UG-PSM) system: Based on root cause analysis with 160 urban gas accidents in China

Urban safety is significantly impacted by the complexity of urban gas accidents. Although China has put forward the goal of “zero fatalities in accidents” for urban gas, unfortunately, the root causes of the unsound safety culture and imperfect safety management system of urban gas enterprises remain unresolved. Therefore, statistical analysis and 24Model analysis of 160 urban gas accidents in mainland China were performed to investigate the proximate causes of the accidents and the current situation of urban gas safety. The CCPS's risk-based process safety elements were used to identify potential deficiencies in the current urban gas process safety management (UG-PSM). During the analysis, it was observed that insufficient implementation of concealed danger investigation and rectification accounted for 76%, which is the primary proximate cause of urban gas accidents. Stakeholder outreach is the most under-represented competency in urban gas safety management. Based on the results, a novel framework for the UG-PSM system was constructed, and the theory of urban gas safety management was further improved. Furthermore, we evaluated the matching degree between UG-PSM elements and the existing measures of the government, urban gas associations, third-party organizations, and urban gas enterprises. Finally, we analyzed the feasibility, challenges, and development directions of the UG-PSM system. This study establishes a foundation for researchers and practitioners in the future research and practice of urban gas process safety and provides theoretical guidance for preventing high-incidence accidents of urban gas in China.     

Modeling the effects of production pressure on safety performance in construction projects using system dynamics

Introduction: Construction incidents occur due to system failures, not due to a single factor such as unsafe behavior or condition. Therefore, construction safety should be investigated using a systematic view capable of illustrating the complex nature of incidents. Construction projects are also often behind their planned schedule and suffer from various pressures caused by contractual deadlines or clients. Previous studies demonstrated that such pressures negatively affect safety performance; however, the process of how production pressure influences safety performance is not fully investigated. Method: The present research aimed to understand the feedback mechanism of how production pressure interactively affects safety performance and safety-related managerial components in a construction project. Ground theory method (GTM) is used to create a conceptual causal loop diagram that shows the relationship between incident rate and other variables such as labor hour, actual and planned progress, safety climate, rework, and safety training. Moreover, a power plant construction project was used as a case study to practically investigate the conceptual model; a case study is employed to build a System Dynamics (SD) model. The simulation model was then validated using behavior reproduction and sensitivity analysis. Results: The results of the inequality statistics show that the simulation model can be used to forecast trends in the incident rate.     

A comparative analysis of process safety management (PSM) systems in the process industry

The root cause of most accidents in the process industry has been attributed to process safety issues ranging from poor safety culture, lack of communication, asset integrity issues, lack of management leadership and human factors. These accidents could have been prevented with adequate implementation of a robust process safety management (PSM) system. Therefore, the aim of this research is to develop a comparative framework which could aid in selecting an appropriate and suitable PSM system for specific industry sectors within the process industry. A total of 21 PSM systems are selected for this study and their theoretical frameworks, industry of application and deficiencies are explored. Next, a comparative framework is developed using eleven key factors that are applicable to the process industry such as framework and room for continuous improvement, design specification, industry adaptability and applicability, human factors, scope of application, usability in complex systems, safety culture, primary or secondary mode of application, regulatory enforcement, competency level, as well as inductive or deductive approach. After conducting the comparative analysis using these factors, the Integrated Process Safety Management System (IPSMS) model seems to be the most robust PSM system as it addressed almost every key area regarding process safety. However, inferences drawn from study findings suggest that there is still no one-size-fits-all PSM system for all sectors of the process industry.     

基于AHP的乙炔生产单元火灾爆炸危险性分析及定量评价

以大连某乙炔厂为例,针对其生产工艺将生产单元划分为气体发生、净化与干燥、压缩与充装3个子单元,找出各子单元中引起火灾爆炸事故的危险因素并进行详细分析和说明,采用层次分析法进行定量评价.基于定量评价结果对生产单元火灾爆炸事故的诱发因素进行总排序,对危险性较大的因素提出有针对性的预防措施,以保证乙炔生产过程的安全可靠,为提高乙炔生产企业的安全生产水平提供参考.     

基于系统动力学(SD)的民航可持续安全发展决策研究

为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。