Estimated trends and patterns of road traffic fatalities in China, 2002–2012

Objective: This study examined the time trends and age distribution patterns of estimated road traffic fatalities (RTFs) in China over the period 2002–2012. Methods: Data on age-, sex-, and region-specific RTF rates were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. The crude rates were standardized and the Mann-Kendall test was used to test the significance of time trends. Annual number of RTFs was calculated. To minimize the effect of yearly variations, magnitude of changes in and age distribution patterns of the RTFs were examined using mean values of 2 years. Results: RTFs increased significantly in China during the study period. Several features were identified for the RTFs in China. First, RTF rates skyrocketed in rural areas including towns and counties. Second, a significant increase in RTFs was also observed in cities even though the change in RTF rates was not statistically significant there. Third, individuals aged 20–24, 40–49, and 55–64, especially in rural areas, were particularly at risk for RTFs in recent years. Finally, RTFs became more common among middle-aged and older adults than young Chinese, with roughly 57% of all RTFs occurring among individuals aged 45 and above during 2011–2012. Conclusions: RTFs increased dramatically in China during the past decade, especially in rural areas. Age distribution patterns of RTFs have changed there. Community-based public health education and intervention programs are warranted.     

基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型*

为提高林火风险预测精度,挖掘地图上隐含的空间信息、时间序列上隐含的长期趋势和循环波动,提出1种基于缓冲区重采样的长短期记忆（LSTM）林火预测模型,选取15个与林火相关的影响因素,以方差膨胀因子为评价指标对其进行多重共线性检验,方差膨胀因子大于10的因素具有共线性,并采用信息增益率验证筛选结果的合理性。考虑到火灾的空间聚集特性,采用缓冲区分析与过采样相结合方法减少样本不均衡现象的影响,最终得到176 732条样本。对12个影响因素和研究时间段的火点建立LSTM预测模型,对森林火灾发生风险进行预测。研究结果表明:基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型有效考虑时空上隐含的信息,预测模型准确率为87.06%,特异性为97.99%,敏感度为76.12%,阳性预测率为97.43%,阴性预测率为80.41%,ROC曲线与AUC值均优于随机森林（RF）和支持向量机（SVM）这2种基准算法。维尔克松秩和检验发现,本文提出的模型与基准算法结果具有显著性差异。研究结果可为提高林火风险预测精度提供参考。     

软土深基坑的空间变形特性分析及危险性评估

为准确掌握软土深基坑的变形特性,并合理评价其危险性,基于现场监测成果,进行基坑重要监测项目的空间变形特征分析;通过变形分级和发展趋势判据计算得到相应特征指标,从而开展基坑危险性评估.结果表明:支护结构的空间变形近似呈"驼峰"特征,即基坑两端头的变形值相对较小,而基坑中部的变形值相对较大;周边土体沉降相对较小,随着与基坑...     

突发公共卫生事件下公交暴露风险辨识方法:以深圳应对新型冠状病毒肺炎为例

为定量评估突发公共卫生事件下的公交暴露风险,基于公交线网、交通分析区及新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情信息等多源数据,考虑公交站点、交通分析区及疫情场所3种研究尺度,集成公交网络结构拓扑模型、公交网络中心性模型及核密度分析等空间分析方法,提出公交暴露风险的多尺度辨识方法,并以深圳市为例进行验证。结果表明:公交站点暴露风险在空间上呈现多中心—圈层结构,较高及高暴露风险站点多为交通枢纽、商场等,占比达26.40%;较高及高暴露风险交通分析区主要分布在工业、商业聚集区及居民点密集区,占比达32.84%;较高及高暴露风险疫情场所主要集中在城市核心区域,占比为28.92%。     

石化装置综合风险分析方法研究

为有针对性地对石化装置失效后果进行风险分析和经济风险计算,将RB.eye软件与API 581相结合,提出一种创新的石化装置综合风险分析研究方法。首先对一套装置中的设备和管道使用RB.eye软件得到风险矩阵进行风险分级,根据分级结果,筛选出高风险设备和管道。然后对筛选出的设备和管道运用API 581进行后果风险分析。并运用此方法研究催化重整预处理装置。结果表明:将RB.eye软件与API 581相结合的方法能够快速筛选风险分析目标,有助于有针对性地进行后果风险分析。     

Safety beliefs and safe behavior among midwestern college students

PROBLEM: This study investigated the impact of safety beliefs on safe behavior and the effect of age, gender, class standing, and geographic region on these beliefs and behaviors. It also compares the level of safety beliefs and safe behavior of Midwestern college students in 1993 to those in 2002. METHOD: A total of 1,059 undergraduate students at four Midwestern universities completed the 33-item questionnaire developed by Crowe (J. Saf. Res. 26 (1995) 187) during the spring semester of 2002. RESULTS: Significant main effects for gender and age on safety beliefs and safe behavior were found as well as a significant interaction between gender and age for both outcome variables. The regression model with the independent variables of personal responsibility and gender yielded a multiple R of.58, which explained 34% of the variance of the self-reported safe behavior. Midwestern college students in 2002 were found less safety-conscious in terms of self-reported safety beliefs and safe behavior than those in 1993. DISCUSSION: The findings indicate that safety education of adolescents and young adults in the United States has not been effective, at least for the last decade, or today's social and school environment is less conducive to the students' safe behavior and beliefs than a decade ago. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Proactive multidisciplinary approaches to enhance safe behavior and beliefs of young adults should be made based on critical evaluation of current approaches.     

基于风险评价的核应急分区疏散规划*

为保障核事故应急疏散的时效性和安全性,降低核事故损失,基于核辐射时空分布特征,对疏散集中点和疏散路网进行风险评价,提出分区疏散组织策略,结合行政区划法,完成核电站场外疏散区域划分;将总暴露风险作为优化目标,构建基于元胞传输的分区疏散规划模型,并以我国某沿海核电站为研究对象,验证分区疏散方案可行性。研究结果表明:考虑核辐射风险后的分区疏散方案,能够有效提高疏散效率,保障公众安全,降低疏散时间和暴露风险,优化疏散期间交通状况。研究结果可为核应急疏散组织工作提供参考。     

基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估*

为了更好地降低化工企业罐区事故造成多米诺效应的风险,提出1种基于保护层分析（LOPA）的定量风险评估程序。首先,阐述基于保护层分析(LOPA)逻辑的多米诺定量风险评估流程,即引入包括可用性、有效性及3种逻辑门定义及量化的安全屏障定量评估;然后,利用LOPA的分析逻辑将安全屏障融入多米诺定量风险评估框架中;最后,选取2×2 000 m3苯乙烯罐区为对象,识别防火层与喷淋冷却系统2种安全屏障并开展基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估,得出安全屏障能有效地降低多米诺事故发生频率及罐区个人风险的结论。研究结果表明:该分析方法可为化工企业开展多米诺效应定量风险评估提供参考。     

Crash risk by driver age,gender, and time of day using a new exposure methodology

Introduction: Concerns have been raised that the nonlinear relation between crashes and travel exposure invalidates the conventional use of crash rates to control for exposure. A new metric of exposure that bears a linear association to crashes was used as basis for calculating unbiased crash risks. This study compared the two methods – conventional crash rates and new adjusted crash risk – for assessing the effect of driver age, gender, and time of day on the risk of crash involvement and crash fatality. Method: We used police reports of single-car and multi-car crashes with fatal and nonfatal driver injuries that occurred during 2002–2012 in Great Britain. Results: Conventional crash rates were highest in the youngest age group and declined steeply until age 60–69 years. The adjusted crash risk instead peaked at age 21–29 years and reduced gradually with age. The risk of nighttime driving, especially among teenage drivers, was much smaller when based on adjusted crash risks. Finally, the adjusted fatality risk incurred by elderly drivers remained constant across time of day, suggesting that their risk of sustaining a fatal injury due to a crash is more attributable to excess fragility than to crash seriousness. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate a biasing effect of low travel exposure on conventional crash rates. This implies that conventional methods do not yield meaningful comparisons of crash risk between driver groups and driving conditions of varying exposure to risk. The excess crash rates typically associated with teenage and elderly drivers as well as nighttime driving are attributed in part to overestimation of risk at low travel exposure. Practical Applications: Greater attention should be directed toward crash involvement among drivers in their 20s and 30s as well as younger drivers. Countermeasures should focus on the role of physical vulnerability in fatality risk of elderly drivers.     

油气管道伴行光缆失效统计及对策措施研究

油气管道伴行光缆在油气运输中起着十分重要的作用。由于外部环境的突发性、复杂性、不可控性,导致伴行光缆管理困难、混乱,断缆事件经常发生,给油气管道运输带来较大损失。本文以某公司为例,以2012~2018年光缆断裂事故数据为依托,运用鱼刺图方法梳理出光缆失效的4大原因类别,并应用故障树分析法对光缆失效进行分析,从最小割(径)集、结构重要度方面对光缆失效因素分析,并针对不同的危害因素提出合理的风险管控措施,构建光缆失效保护层,为今后油气管道伴行光缆风险管控提供指导。     

基于SPA法的盾构隧道施工邻近桥梁安全评价

为实现盾构隧道施工邻近桥梁安全评价,基于大量的文献研究和工程实践,从地质水文条件、盾构施工参数、隧道工程条件、桥梁自身条件和组织管理风险5方面构建涵盖16个因素的评价指标体系,并确定各指标的分级标准,提出1套基于集对分析理论(SPA)的安全评价方法;通过构建各指标等级间的联系度隶属函数,基于G1-CRITIC法确定综合...     

Is using work–life interface benefits a career‐limiting move? An examination of women,men, lone parents,and parents with partners

Using a large national sample based on Workplace and Employee Survey data collected by Statistics Canada in 2001 and 2002, we examined the effects of employee usage of seven organizational work–life interface benefits on promotions. Analysis predicted promotions in 2002 when number of promotions received by 2001 were controlled. The main effect of using work–life interface benefits on promotions was positive, indicating that using these benefits is not a career‐limiting move. Gender, presence of young children, and marital status interacted with the use of work–life interface benefits. Single parents benefitted less than other employees from using work–life interface options. Altogether, these findings suggest that the ongoing positive effects of conservation of time and energy resources for employees outweigh the initial short‐term negative effects of signaling and stigmatization. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于贝叶斯网络的城市地下燃气管网动态风险分析

为研究城市燃气管网风险的动态性,针对传统风险分析方法的局限性,提出基于贝叶斯网络的燃气管网动态风险分析方法。构建燃气管网失效蝴蝶结模型并将其转化为贝叶斯网络模型;在事故发生状态下更新事件失效概率,识别出关键因素;根据异常事件数据和贝叶斯理论,对基本事件失效概率进行实时动态改变;随之更新管网失效及各后果发生的概率,从而实现管网的动态风险分析。研究结果表明:该方法克服了传统风险分析方法的不足,可动态反映燃气管网失效和事故后果发生概率随时间变化的特征,能够为城市地下燃气管网的风险分析与事故预防提供参考。     

基于成本收益分析的油气管道风险控制决策过程

为实现对油气管道风险的有效控制,结合油气管道的特点,基于成本收益分析方法改进风险控制决策过程。首先,确定风险控制目标,对所建议的措施进行初步筛选,并根据行业现状确定基线场景;之后,量化筛选后的措施的成本与收益,通过计算成本收益率(CBR)或规避事故隐含成本(ICAF)来确定相应措施的合理性;最后,依据上述分析制定风险控制决策。结果表明:不同措施的CBR或ICAF值不同,CBR或ICAF值较低的措施应被优先实施;而当CBR或ICAF值超过标准值时,相应措施是不合理的,应不予以实施。     

基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析在石油化工装置中的应用

工艺危害分析强调运用系统的方法对危害进行辨识、分析,并采取必要的措施消除和减少危害。HAZOP分析能对工艺过程非常系统、全面的进行分析,但传统的HAZOP分析在量化风险时,对于偏差原因发生的可能性评价存在较大的主观性。本文对于没有统计资料的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生可能性,采用专家打分法,利用三角模糊数来表示其模糊发生概率。对于有统计资料的偏差原因,直接表示成三角模糊数。这种方法能够很好的表示HAZOP分析偏差发生概率。介绍了基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析步骤,并在石油化工装置中进行了应用。这对HAZOP分析技术在石油化工装置中的推广具有重要意义。     

油气管道腐蚀可靠性的贝叶斯评价法

对油气管道腐蚀危害因素进行分析,建立其失效故障树。根据故障树分析原理,找出导致管道腐蚀穿孔破坏的23个因素。通过对故障树的定性分析,采用下行法求出油气管道腐蚀失效故障树的96个全部最小割集,并确定失效的主要影响因素。结合最小割集不相交化法和贝叶斯可靠性评定法对管道腐蚀失效进行定量分析,通过某油气管道事故统计数据,利用贝叶斯可靠性评定方法求出油气管道腐蚀可靠性的一阶矩和二阶矩。对一阶矩和二阶矩进行拟合,求出油气管道腐蚀可靠性的第一近似下限和第二近似下限。结果表明:得出的油气腐蚀管道贝叶斯可靠性评价结果可以指导管道系统的维护和维修,降低管道运行的风险。     

地铁运营安全风险管理现状分析

对国内轨道交通通车里程和在建里程进行统计,并对国际重大地铁事故进行简单统计分析,指出造成地铁安全风险事故的主要原因。在此基础上,对地铁运营安全风险管理的特点和定义进行探讨,并进一步介绍国内外大型城市地铁运营的典型风险管理体系,探讨地铁运营过程中的风险管理特点及现状,对比分析国内外地铁运营管理体系的异同点。指出目前国内地铁运营风险管理中存在的主要问题,并针对其中问题提出具体的建议性措施。     

PHAST在LPG储存条件分析中的应用

分别分析了LPG常温加压和低温常压储存的不同特点和LPG储存过程中的危险性和各种可能出现的火灾爆炸事故后果;设定了常见的LPG储存泄漏时效模式,运用PHAST软件模拟分析了LPG常温加压和低温常压储存的各种火灾爆炸事故的危害范围;比较两种储存条件下的危害后果,得出了LPG低温常压储存具有更高的安全性和经济性。     

基于灰色关联度的集对分析方法在高层建筑火灾危险性评价中的应用

为了对某钢管厂高层建筑进行火灾风险评估,基于高层建筑的防火、灭火设计要求,从防火系统、灭火系统、安全疏散和消防安全管理四个方面构建了高层建筑火灾危险性指标评价体系,并运用层次分析法确定了各火灾危险性影响因子的权重。根据集对分析的联系度模型对高层建筑进行火灾危险性评估,确定其安全等级。结合灰色关联度理论对差异度与同一度、对立度两组数据进行计算比较,选取绝对关联度大的值作为差异度系数i的值,从而可以确定各组联系度的值。根据联系度最大值所属的安全等级,确定了高层建筑的火灾危险等级为一般安全,结果与实际情况相符。     

基于贝叶斯网络气化炉供料系统风险分析

为解决当前气化炉供料系统风险分析不完善的状况，提出1种基于贝叶斯网络和HAZOP的风险分析模型。以某单日投煤量3 000 t级气化炉煤化工企业实际运行情况为研究对象，应用HAZOP法对其进行风险分析，并将HAZOP分析结果中各偏差产生原因转化为贝叶斯网络节点；考虑到先验知识的缺乏问题，引入Leaky Noisy OR模型，通过文献资料和相关领域专家经验知识获得先验概率，并利用贝叶斯网络进行风险分析，找出系统运行的薄弱环节。结果表明:未知因素影响会使各节点的后验概率值差异性降低，更加贴合实际；在引入未知因素影响后，系统运行薄弱环节并未发生改变。