Terror-Proofing Chemical Process Industries

The chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals can be rather attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. The damage inflicted may include casualties, economic loss and political fallout. There is an urgent need for each facility to have a security management programme. Its essential components are security risk assessment, security countermeasures and emergency response.

Security risk assessment can be carried out qualitatively by threat analysis, vulnerability analysis and developing a Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). All these are discussed at length. Security countermeasures are the steps taken to strengthen the weak points in a system, either by lessening vulnerabilities or by hardening the facilities. Various security countermeasures are suggested for improving security of CPI. Appropriate emergency response measures that could mitigate the consequences of a successful attack are also discussed in the paper. It is recommended that many of the conventional safety and security measures adopted thus far may have to be modified in light of the enhanced and complex nature of the present security threats.     

Mechanism analysis and risk assessment of escalation scenario in chemical industry zones

Many major hazard installations (MHIs) are located in chemical industry zones and escalation effect may be triggered when the fire or explosion occurs on a MHI. To investigate the mechanism of the accident escalation, a systematic quantitative assessment methodology is proposed by the considering the feature and uncertainty of the escalation scenario. The main accident energy carriers of the escalation are heat radiation, overpressure of blast and fragments. The escalation probability, joint influence of the three energy carriers and risk characterization of the accident scenarios are carried out. By the new methodology, the escalation scenario in chemical industry zones can be analyzed and the risk escalation morphology is demonstrated by the simulation software. The visualized risk cloud figure gives a supplementary way to prevent the escalation scenario in chemical industry zones planning.     

Site security for chemical process industries

Chemical process industries such as oil refineries, fertiliser plants, petrochemical plants, etc., which handle hazardous chemicals, are potential targets for deliberate actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. Security risks arising out of these threats are real and must be assessed to determine whether the security measures employed within the facility are adequate or need enhancement. The essential steps involved are threat analysis, vulnerability analysis, security countermeasures, and emergency response. Threat analysis involves the study of identifying sources, types of threats, and their likelihood. Vulnerability analysis identifies the weaknesses in a system that adversaries can exploit. Depending on the threat likelihood and vulnerabilities, various security countermeasures are suggested to improve the plant security. Appropriate emergency response measures that could mitigate the consequences of a successful attack and concepts of inherently safer processes in the light of process security are also discussed in the paper. It is recognised that serious terrorist threats exist to the transport system of hazardous chemicals (by road, rail cars, ships, pipelines, etc.). However, that is not a part of this study, which concentrates on process plants and hazardous materials within immovable boundaries. A case study of a fertiliser plant is used to show the application of ideas presented.     

化工园区安全规划方法与程序研究

针对我国化工园区急剧发展,且无统一的安全规划方法指导的现状,分析了化工园区安全规划的目的、指导思想与一般原则;对国外常用的"基于安全距离"、"基于后果"和"基于风险"等3种安全规划技术方法进行比较研究,给出基于区域性定量风险评价方法的化工园区安全规划技术思路;进而提出了化工园区安全规划应至少包括化工园区工厂选址与土地使用安全规划、化工园区安全管理模式研究和化工园区应急体系建设及应急预案编制等3项内容,并给出了化工园区安全规划的基本程序。笔者建议,将化工园区安全规划的内容纳入化工园区的总体规划,在化工园区规划、开发和建设过程中编制化工园区安全规划。     

Mapping human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents

Chemical accidents in the vicinity of densely populated areas can cause colossal damage. Close proximity of chemical facilities to the general public has been identified as a major issue for increased human exposure in 43% of the accidents investigated by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB). This emphasises the need for incorporating societal factors in risk assessment to plan actions in order to minimise exposure during accidents. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for the assessment of human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents. A GIS based methodology is proposed which uses computer aided hazard modelling tools and technical guidelines to model accidents and assesses population vulnerability. The population vulnerability is determined based on a set of societal indicators derived from relevant research work, expert opinions and suggestions by World Bank. Risk is defined as the probable magnitude of harm to humans and dependent on both the degrees of hazard and vulnerability. A case study is carried out by applying the methodology to Meghnaghat Industrial Area in Bangladesh. Accident scenarios are built and hazard modelling software ALOHA is used to spatially display accident footprints. Vulnerability of population is assessed using data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and field survey. The hazard footprints and vulnerability map are superimposed using mapping software ArcGIS to generate a composite risk map. The risk map is used to assess existing land use and recommendations are made for future land use planning. The composite risk map is expected to be of help for effective community response, emergency response planning and allocation of medical and support services during emergencies.     

基于RBI技术的化工装置压力管道风险评估与在线检验策略研究

基于RBI方法原理,实施化工装置压力管道风险评估。在风险评估过程中,将装置内各腐蚀回路中的压力管道按照管径、材质及用途等因素进行分组,以得到各压力管道组的风险等级,在此基础上确定其抽检比例,制订在线检验策略。以某厂环氧乙烷/乙二醇〖JP2〗（EO/EG）装置为对象,应用壳牌S-RBI软件完成装置内274组（共458条）压力管道风险评估工作,根据风险评估结果共抽取178条压力管道实施在线检验,考虑到该装置存在的减薄机理,在线检验技术手段以测厚和宏观检查为主,并对部分中高风险等级以上的压力管道进行数字射线检测。检验结果表明:基于RBI技术的压力管道在线检验策略能够有效发现压力管道系统中存在的安全隐患,并节约检验成本。     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

AFRA – Heuristic expert system to assess the atmospheric risk of sulphide waste dumps

In 2006, an unprecedented atmospheric confined space accident took place in a sampling shed at the Sullivan Mine in Kimberley, British Columbia. This accident suggests that a risk assessment should be carried out on a regular basis at mine reclamation sites for many years after closure. In this paper, an Atmospheric Fuzzy Risk Assessment (AFRA) tool is described that can assess atmospheric risk given heuristic and measured data at such sites. It can also serve to transfer knowledge about atmospheric hazards in an enclosed structure. The system uses fuzzy logic to input and output information and to perform weighted inferencing. The paper describes the developmental process as well as system verification and validation based on a number of known test and reference waste dumps. AFRA is a heuristic expert system based on fuzzy logic and the first tool that was developed to assess the atmospheric risk of mine waste dumps. The atmospheric risk is estimated by fuzzy Mamdani system given the values of four major elements of risk comprising of: gas generation, gas emission, gas confinement, and human exposure. The ability of AFRA to adapt its risk assessment to different climate conditions is explained. There are many physical, chemical, and environmental factors which fluctuate over time affecting oxygen-depletion in waste dumps. AFRA can help mining engineers and mine managers recognize this type of danger when conducting a confined space inventory at a reclamation site.     

基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估*

为了更好地降低化工企业罐区事故造成多米诺效应的风险,提出1种基于保护层分析（LOPA）的定量风险评估程序。首先,阐述基于保护层分析(LOPA)逻辑的多米诺定量风险评估流程,即引入包括可用性、有效性及3种逻辑门定义及量化的安全屏障定量评估;然后,利用LOPA的分析逻辑将安全屏障融入多米诺定量风险评估框架中;最后,选取2×2 000 m3苯乙烯罐区为对象,识别防火层与喷淋冷却系统2种安全屏障并开展基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估,得出安全屏障能有效地降低多米诺事故发生频率及罐区个人风险的结论。研究结果表明:该分析方法可为化工企业开展多米诺效应定量风险评估提供参考。     

Results of Finnish national survey in the chemical industry on EU legislation concerned with risk assessment and safety compliance climate

A questionnaire study about the Finnish chemical industry was devised to explore the implementation of the risk assessment obligations of the EU Chemical Agents Directive (98/24/EC), and the role of risk assessment activities as a part of OSH management. The quantitative method involved an assessment of online questionnaire. The respondents were employers' (N = 49) and workers' (N = 105) OSH representatives from different companies'. The regression analysis of the responses indicated that prioritizations in the risk assessment had a highly significant (p < 0.001) effect both on the prevention measures in the management and on the safe use of chemicals. The present results showed that development measures have to be directed at the most important problems ensuring that sub-contractors carry out hazard identification and arranging their on-the-job training so that it matches the chemical plant enterprise's own workers. Furthermore, the results of risk assessment should be used in the planning and management of the work, in the development of the supervisors' leadership skills as well as when following up the improvements.     

Risk assessment and land-use planning regulations in France following the AZF disaster

After the disaster of AZF plant in Toulouse on 21 September 2001 (31 people killed, 3000 injured and 3 billion dollars of damage), France adopted a new law relative to safety reports and land-use planning on 30 July 2003. This law asks for the investigation of all representative scenarios and the assessment of their probabilities to demonstrate the acceptable level of safety of an industrial facility. Therefore significant changes were introduced in the way of doing risk analysis in France and some difficulties were found for the implementation of a probabilistic approach.This paper presents the new approach of risk analysis established by the French Ministry of the Environment, and particularly focuses on:? the benefits and limits of the semi-quantitative probabilistic assessment method;? the benefits and difficulties to use a quantitative probabilistic assessment method;? some learning from the risk analysis approaches carried out in the nuclear industry;? some discussion about the national matrix to appreciate the gravity of human consequences from an accident outside facilities.     

Management of the UK HSE failure rate and event data

The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) requires failure rate data for the assessment of COMAH safety reports and in the implementation of its statutory functions relating to land use planning in the vicinity of major hazard sites. Many of the existing failure rates used by HSE were derived over 20 years ago, but have been subject to periodic review to ensure that they remain appropriate for modern planning enquiries or quantified risk assessments. HSE needs to be assured that its sources of data and their application continue to be fit to support its statutory duties.HSE has implemented a programme of work to be carried out by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL). This includes the development and maintenance of a single source of quality assured failure rate data, ideally accessible from the Internet, bringing together and updating existing failure rate data sources and reviewing new sources not previously available to HSE.A review of HSE’s current failure rate values is being carried out and this will be used to generate a single source of publically available failure rate data for use by both HSE and the public. This would help industry and HSE move toward a common position or understanding on failure rates. It would also help ensure that HSE professional advice is defensible and transparent.This paper will detail the progress made to date on the programme of work. It will also discuss the issues that arise as a consequence of changing failure rates and how HSE deals with these issues.     

What safety models and principles can be adapted and used in security science?

Engineering risk management is comprised of managing operational safety risks on the one hand and managing physical security risks on the other. Although some basic management principles are obviously the same for both safety and security, some important conceptual and calculation differences exist, as is explained in this paper. For instance, safety risk is usually calculated based on the scenarios’ consequences and likelihoods, while security needs to be determined by the assessment of vulnerability, the likelihood of attack and potential consequences. Nonetheless, there are also many similarities. Conceptual models, metaphors and principles that have been elaborated in the safety domain during the past century, many of them based on major accidents and their investigation, can easily be translated to the security domain. In the present study, we will explain how physical security should be seen in relation to safety, and what models and principles, derived from safety science, can be employed to manage the security aspects associated with physical threats.     

基于后果的土地利用安全规划方法在化工园区的应用

土地利用安全规划是预防和控制重大工业事故的重要手段,本文讨论国外常见重大危险源土地利用规划的三种方法,给出一个基于后果的土地利用安全规划的方法。提出火灾、爆炸和毒物泄漏等事故场景下的伤害阈值标准并以此进行事故后果伤害分区,给出脆弱性目标的分级原则,最终给出土地利用安全规划的判断准则。以南方某化工园区为实例应用此方法进行分析研究。本方法可应用于重大危险源或化工园区的安全规划、安全评价以及应急规划等工作。     

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of commercial scale supply chain of hydrogen fuel and implications for industry and society

This paper is derived from a study on the safety of bulk transport and storage of hydrogen as a fuel, carried out by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) for the Department for Transport (DfT). The aim of the study was to identify the knowledge and data required to develop fully a risk assessment for a hydrogen delivery and storage infrastructure. The methodology used was to begin to carry out a risk assessment for a representative delivery and storage supply chain, using a risk assessment methodology commensurate with the availability of necessary data. Semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out through top-down HAZID brainstorming, consequence modelling using commercially available software, and use of a risk matrix.Finally through the risk assessment carried out and relevant literature review, the gaps in hazard identification, consequence modelling and frequency assessment, which should be filled to develop a quantified methodology, were compiled.Using data for current UK LPG consumption, comparisons were made between hydrogen and LPG for mode of failures and number of trips required to supply equivalent energy demand. The implications of using ammonia as a hydrogen carrier (hydrogen is within the ammonia molecule) and regulatory implications on hydrogen fuelling or storage sites are also discussed.     

一种新型危险化工工艺安全评估方法的设计

在安全生产过程中,建设项目风险评价在我国经过几十年的发展,无论在模型亦是方法上均有所进步,但对化工项目进行危险化工工艺风险等级评价的研究并不多见。本文按照危险化工工艺表征涉及的影响因素,在参考了日本劳动省"六阶段"的定量评价表以及危险度评价法并对15种危险化工工艺定性分析的基础上,提出了一种基于危险度评价法的更为全面的危险化工工艺辨识方法。该评价方法可用于确定危险化工工艺的风险等级。为化工企业工艺危险的实时评估和安全管理提供技术支撑和科学途径。     

中国GBZ2.1与德国MAK工作场所化学有害因素职业接触限值比较研究

系统比较中国现行职业接触限值标准GBZ2.1-2007与德国职业接触限值MAK在定义、制定原则和具体数值方面的差异,为中国GBZ2.1的修订提供建议和依据。将 GBZ2.1中规定的OELs与德国MAK于2015年公布的化学有害因素 OELs ,按不同类型建立比较分析数据库,并进行比较分析,分析结果表明:中德2国在职业接触限值的制定原则,化学有害因素的来源、数量与标识等方面有显著差异。 因此,我国应加强对化学性有害因素孕期毒性接触限值的研究和应用。中德在选择化学性有害因素制定OELs时各有侧重,我国在重金属方面制定的OELs,如:钴、钼、铍、铊等,是德国MAK以及美国ACGIH中所未有的,而德国则不再为致癌物质制定OELs。中、德均制定有OELs的化学性有害因素在数值上差异较大,中国有部分OELs同时高于德国MAK和美国ACGIH。我国的职业接触限值更新频率较慢,应缩短OELs更新周期,在对现行的GBZ2.1进行制修订时,可将发达国家OELs作为1项参考。德国风险分级评估方法对致癌物质的管理和评估值得进一步探讨及研究。     

Comparative study on standardized ignition sources used for explosion testing

For the determination of safety characteristics of gases, vapors and dusts different types of ignition sources are used in international standards and guidelines. The paper presents test results of a comparative calorimetric and visual study between four different types of ignition sources. The ignition procedures were analyzed visually with a high-speed camera and electric recordings. In addition to that, the influence of the electrode-orientation, -distance as well as ignition energy on the reproducibility of the exploding wire igniter was tested.The exploding wire is already in use for standardized determination of safety characteristics of gases, first tests on the suitability of the exploding wire igniter for dust testing have been carried out but are not standardized yet. Using the exploding wire, the ignition energy can be varied from 2 J to 10 000 J (2 x 5000 J) and thus it could be used for gases, vapors, dusts and hybrid mixtures. Moreover it can be used at high initial pressures and it is the only ignition source with an easily measurable ignition energy release. Furthermore, it does not introduce another chemical reaction into the system.Finally, a proposal for a standard ignition source for explosion tests on hybrid mixtures is derived from the test results.     

The role of recirculation loop on the risk of ethoxylation processes

Alkoxylation is performed in industry for producing non-ionic surfactants and polyethylene/polypropylene glycols. To this end, the most common type of reactor consists of a simple liquid-stirred reactor equipped sometimes with an external circulation loop to increase the reactor heat exchange capacity. More advanced chemical processes are now performed in Semi-Batch Venturi Loop reactors or in Spray Tower Loop Reactors, where the liquid phase is dispersed into the gaseous phase by means of recirculation loop. The three different reactor types used in the manufacture of ethoxylated products have been compared in terms of efficiency. However, few indications have been given in terms of accidental consequences, whose evaluation is mandatory when sound risk assessment of chemical processes is carried out. In this paper, the added risks due to the presence of the recirculation loop have been assessed by varying the operating conditions, either in terms of temperature or partial pressure of ethylene oxide (EO). The aim is, therefore, to rank the different technologies.     

北京市危险化学品企业安全生产风险评估分级研究

为对北京市危化品企业基本情况的全面掌握,开展了危险化学品企业安全生产风险评估分级研究,借鉴国外经验和国内有关科研成果,提出了固有风险和动态风险相结合的危化品安全生产风险评估方法。固有风险为企业的基本风险水平,主要由危险化学品物质量、工艺水平、安全监控和周边环境决定,为共性指标;动态风险,反映企业安全生产管理绩效的水平,主要包括安全基础管理和现场管理,为个性指标,不同企业类型,评估动态风险指标有差异。从大量数据中抽取了最能反应企业安全生产状态的指标因素,通过专家组打分法和层次分析法确定评价因素的权重,该评估方法具有较强的实用性和可操作性,是本质安全和安全绩效的创新结合,为企业安全生产评估分级提供了新思路。通过分级,按照"风险优先"原则,政府部门实行差别监管,降低安全监管成本,促进危险化学品安全生产工作向规范化、科学化转变。同时,研制了危化品企业安全生产风险分级系统,为建立北京市危化品企业风险分级数据库奠定了基础。