石化装置火灾爆炸贝叶斯网络与防护层集成分析

复杂的石油化工装置在运转过程中存在诸多不确定因素,易发生火灾、爆炸等重大事故,给安全生产带来极大威胁。考虑到传统的系统安全分析方法在风险评估中存在一定局限性,引入贝叶斯网络与防护层集成分析模型。应用GeNIe软件将系统故障树转成贝叶斯网络,根据贝叶斯双向推理进行故障预测和诊断,快速识别系统薄弱环节并确定为风险贝叶斯故障节点,结合防护层分析提出相应的独立防护层,确定剩余风险水平。实例应用表明,所构建的贝叶斯网络与防护层集成分析模型对复杂系统进行风险评估是可行的,较传统的事件树、故障树分析方法更加科学、合理。     

The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part I. The development of an improved accident frequency model

This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing airport safety areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.The first part of the paper presents the methodological advances made in the development of accident frequency models; namely the building of a single comprehensive database of all relevant accident types, the collection and use of normal operations data in quantifying the criticality of a series of risk factors, and modelling accident frequency using multivariate logistic regression. The resulting models have better goodness-of-fit, sensitivity and specificity than standard risk assessment methodologies.     

The development of a more risk-sensitive and flexible airport safety area strategy: Part II. Accident location analysis and airport risk assessment case studies

This two-part paper presents the development of an improved airport risk assessment methodology aimed at assessing risks related to aircraft accidents at and in the vicinity of airports and managing Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as a risk mitigation measure. The improved methodology is more quantitative, risk-sensitive, flexible and transparent than standard risk assessment approaches. As such, it contributes to the implementation of Safety Management Systems at airports, as stipulated by the International Civil Aviation Organisation.The second part of the paper presents the analysis of accident locations, including the plotting of Complementary Cumulative Probability Distributions for the relevant accident types. These were then used in conjunction with the improved accident frequency models to produce Complementary Cumulative Frequency Distributions that could be used to assess risks related to specific runways and determine Airport Safety Area (ASA) dimensions necessary to meet a quantitative target level of safety. The approach not only takes into account risk factors previously ignored by standard risk assessments but also considers the operational and traffic characteristics of the runway concerned. The use of the improved risk assessment technique and risk management strategy using ASAs was also demonstrated in two case studies based on New York LaGuardia Airport and Boca Raton Airport in Florida.     

善于运用安全文化的管理者--访中国石化集团河南石油勘探局局长袁政文

搞地质勘探出身的袁政文局长,为人谦和、低调,是一位学者型的管理者.他在石油企业工作多年,对企业的安全文化有着深刻而独到的理解,在河南油田安全文化的建设过程中,发挥了领路人的作用.近日,本刊记者专程赴南阳,就河南油田安全文化建设这一主题采访了他.     

让高铁成为最快 最舒适 最安全的公交——访铁道部安监司司长陈远华

2008年8月1日,我国第一条高速铁路（以下简称＂高铁＂）——京津城际铁路正式通车运营。两年后的今天,中国已经投入运营的高铁线路达到8358km,正在建设的高铁有1万多km,成为世界上高铁系统技术最全、集成能力最强、运营速度最高、运营里程最长、