Fuzzy fault tree analysis for fire and explosion of crude oil tanks

Crude oil tank fire and explosion (COTFE) is the most frequent type of accident in petroleum refineries, oil terminals or storage which often results in human fatality, environment pollution and economic loss. In this paper, with fault tree qualitative analysis technique, various potential causes of the COTFE are identified and a COTFE fault tree is constructed. Conventional fault tree quantitative analysis calculates the occurrence probability of the COTFE using exact probability data of the basic events. However, it is often very difficult to obtain corresponding precise data and information in advance due to insufficient data, changing environment or new components. Fuzzy set theory has been proven to be effective on such uncertain problems. Hence, this article investigates a hybrid approach of fuzzy set theory and fault tree analysis to quantify the COTFE fault tree in fuzzy environment and evaluate the COTFE occurrence probability. Further, importance analysis for the COTFE fault tree, including the Fussell–Vesely importance measure of basic events and the cut sets importance measure, is performed to help identifying the weak links of the crude oil tank system that will provide the most cost-effective mitigation. Also, a case study and analysis is provided to testify the proposed method.     

Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.     

中国道路交通安全现状、成因及其对策

交通事故已经成为威胁人民生命、财产安全的社会公害之一。笔者在大量统计数据的基础上 ,分析了中国道路交通及交通事故发展现状和造成交通事故的主要原因 ;提出解决交通安全问题应“以人为本” ,逐步改善车辆及道路环境的安全状况 ,加强政策法规的建设和实施 ,从而在全社会形成良好的软硬件交通安全环境 ,以期望对预防及减少交通事故的发生起到积极的作用     

Simulation analysis of fire truck scheduling strategies for fighting oil fires

Emergency response is an important measure to reduce the loss of any major fire and prevent its escalation. There may be many fire trucks participating in the fire-fighting at the same time, and the scheduling of them will affect the fire-fighting efficiency and thus, capacity. This work focuses on the cycle process of fighting fire and refilling water of fire trucks, and analyzes and compares the scheduling strategies of the fire trucks. The simulation tool eM-plant is utilized to model the fire-fighting process. In view of the emergency response in relation to a chemical fire accident and to prevent its escalation, strategies in the analysis consider the allocation of fire trucks according to the distance of hydrants, the distribution of fire trucks according to the number of fire hydrants, etc. The results of this paper show that an even distribution of fire trucks leads to a good performance, but can be further adjusted to find a more optimal strategy. This study provides guidance for fire truck scheduling in case of emergency response.     

Analysis and assessment of the Qingdao crude oil vapor explosion accident: Lessons learnt

A devastating crude oil vapor explosion accident, which killed 62 people and injured 136, occurred on November 22, 2013. It was one of the most disastrous vapor cloud explosion accidents that happened in Qingdao's storm drains in China. It was noted that blast overpressure and flying debris were the main causes of human deaths, personal injuries and structure damages. Two months after the accident, it was reported that there were three contentious issues in the investigation report. First issue was the discrepancy between the temperature of the crude oil vapor explosive limits which were measured by the investigation panel and the temperature reported by the local fire department. Second issue was the contradiction between the upper explosive limit and vapor pressure of the crude oil vapor. The last issue was the location of the ignition source which led to the explosion.In the present study some specific features of this accident and various causes led to the explosion, high casualties and severe damages were analyzed. Three contentious issues in the official investigation report were investigated and tested in detail. The first element tested was the explosive limits and limiting oxygen concentration of the crude oil vapor at different temperatures. Based on theoretical analysis and field investigations, the last two elements in the report were analyzed from multiple perspectives. Based on the TNO Multi-Energy model and PROBIT equations, damage probability of affected people at the leaking site was also estimated. The investigation concluded with a result that precautions need to be taken to prevent flammable gas explosions in the drainage systems. Key steps were explicitly discussed for improving the hazard identification and risk assessment of similar accidents in the future.     

Investigation on the self-decomposition and explosion hazard of azo compounds

Azo compounds are self-reactive chemicals that violently produce flammable gases with heat release (i.e., an exothermic reaction). However, the explosion mechanism and ignition probability of azo compounds have not been clearly defined for storage or transportation. In this study, explosion scene analyses and various pyrolysis tests were performed to evaluate the thermal decomposition characteristics and explosion phenomena of azo compounds in a storage facility. The chemical debris collected from a fire scene was determined to be similar to the pyrolyzate of one of the tested azo compounds used by Py-GCMS. The minimum amounts of azo compounds, which could be ignited by self-decomposition heat, were calculated from the results of differential scanning calorimetrys and the heat transfer equation. The results were used to discuss a safety and response strategy for preventing the propagation of an explosion accident, namely a chemical backdraft.     

一台原油加热炉火管烧损事故原因分析

通过对事故现场的勘察以及对装置缺陷检验与火管材质成分、性能分析,阐述了原油加热炉火管烧损事故发生的起因.分析认为,由于火管金属局部超温引起的,局部超温能够导致金属过烧甚至产生组织相变,能够导致材料力学性能大大降低,当由于局部膨胀所形成的拘束应力、热应力、结构应力与介质压力产生的薄膜应力相叠加所形成的峰值应力高于由于高温...     

太空环境下锂离子电池热失控与火灾的研究展望

综述了锂离子电池的热失控机理,介绍了由于电池内部电解液、电池隔膜和电极材料分解的链式热反应过程而引发的热失控和火灾现象。同时,讨论了锂离子电池在微重力太空环境中可能产生的烟黑浓度倍增,加速火蔓延,火焰喷射等极端火行为。进而探讨了开展锂离子电池的低压、落塔和抛物飞行等地面实验模拟太空微重力燃烧的方法可行性,建立数值模型预测太空微重力环境下锂离子电池热失控临界条件与火灾行为的必要性,以及如何通过基础研究科学地指导空间站电池热管理和消防系统的设计。     

Experimental study of the VOC emitted from crude oil tankers

Light hydrocarbons vaporize to the space between crude oil interface and roof of the storage tank during loading of crude oil tankers in marine oil terminals. When crude oil is loaded to the tank, these hydrocarbons are vented into the atmosphere which is considered as a main source of emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in oil terminals. VOCs emitted from the crude oil not only create severe air pollution problems but also a considerable amount of valuable hydrocarbons are wasted to the atmosphere. On the other hand, VOCs are flammable which create major safety hazards to the loading process. Therefore, the oil industry has largely focused on control of VOCs. In this research, an experimental study was conducted to characterize VOCs emitted from storage tanks of crude oil in a large-scale oil export terminal. Using the industrial data and simple mathematical tools, effect of different parameters on the composition of emitted gases was investigated. Furthermore, an experimental procedure is proposed to assess the potential of a crude oil absorption process for recovering emitted gases. Experimental results showed that the crude oil absorption process can be adapted to the situation of considered marine terminal for recovering this vent stream of emitted gases. This work can help plant engineers to decide on an appropriate strategy to control VOCs.     

油库火灾特点及扑救战术分析

(公安消防部队 昆明指挥学校, 云南 昆明〓650208)     

Quantitative risk analysis of fire and explosion on the top-side LNG-liquefaction process of LNG-FPSO

Since the massive use and production of fuel oil and natural gas, the excavating locations of buried energy-carrying material are moving further away from onshore, eventually requiring floating production systems like floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO). Among those platforms, LNG-FPSO will play a leading role to satisfy the global demands for the natural gas in near future; the LNG-FPSO system is designed to deal with all the LNG processing activities, near the gas field. However, even a single disaster on an offshore plant would put the whole business into danger. In this research, the risk of fire and explosion in the LNG-FPSO is assessed by quantitative risk analysis, including frequency and consequence analyses, focusing on the LNG liquefaction process (DMR cycle). The consequence analysis is modeled by using a popular analysis tool PHAST. To assess the risk of this system, 5 release model scenarios are set for the LNG and refrigerant leakages from valves, selected as the most probable scenarios causing fire and explosion. From the results, it is found that the introduction of additional protection methods to reduce the effect of fire and explosion under ALARP criteria is not required, and two cases of the selection of independent protection layers are recommended to meet the SIL level of failure rate for safer design and operation in the offshore environment.     

大型原油商业储备油库火灾危险性数值模拟分析

石油储备油库多向大型化、复杂化方向发展,发生事故时扑救非常困难。为了深入探讨巨型油罐火灾发展趋势与规律、事故危害后果,结合宁夏惠安堡原油商业储备油库这一工程实例,采用基于大涡模拟的FDS模型作为模拟计算平台,对巨型油罐火灾的燃烧过程进行数值模拟计算。通过分析计算,得到烟气分布、温度分布、热辐射强度分布等火灾过程参数的变化趋势,以及在有风和无风状态下着火罐对相邻油罐的影响,探讨现行建设工程消防技术标准就储罐防火间距、火灾时对邻近罐体冷却设计要求运用于巨型储油罐时的消防安全状况,为巨型储油罐消防安全科学合理设计提供理论依据。     

基于聚类分析的我国火灾空间分布研究

为了解我国火灾事故的空间分布情况,使用系统聚类分析了我国1996 -2010年的火灾统计数据,并结合地理信息系统把分类的结果呈现在相应的区域上进行火灾的空间分布特征研究.聚类分析结果将我国31个省市自治区的火灾事故分为5类,对聚类的结果使用方差分析,类与类之间存在显著差异,说明通过系统聚类得到的分类结果是科学的.进一步分析显示我国火灾事故在空间分布上存在一定的规律性.分析结果可以对了解我国火灾分布特点以及为相关部门提供决策支持.     

A fuzzy DEMATEL method to evaluate critical operational hazards during gas freeing process in crude oil tankers

Gas freeing process in crude oil tanker ships is widely recognized one of the most hazardous aspects of shipboard operations. Although the process provides practical benefits to ship by removing the explosive or poisonous gases from the cargo tanks and raising the oxygen level up to 21 percent, the consequences of failure may cause serious damage to human health, marine environment and cargo. Therefore, the crew exercise utmost care and become aware of the potential hazards in gas freeing process. In this context, this paper provides a fuzzy DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to evaluate critical operational hazards in gas freeing process. While the DEMATEL method enables to identify and analyse the potential hazards of gas freeing process with respect to causal–effect relation diagram, fuzzy sets deal with the uncertainty in decision-making and human judgements through the DEMATEL. Thus, the hybrid approach provides smart solution for safety practitioners to prevent critical hazards in gas freeing process. The results of the research will contribute to maritime safety at sea and prevention of environment pollution as well as loss of life on-board crude oil tankers ships.     

水成膜泡沫对变压器油池火的窒息特性研究

水成膜泡沫在油类表面的窒息作用是扑灭油类火灾的重要机理之一,针对自行开发的快速型泡沫灭火剂开展了其对油池火的窒息灭火特性研究。首先通过老化试验测试了泡沫液的热稳定性,然后对比了不同成分泡沫液在25#变压器油表面的铺展特性,之后研究了不同发泡倍率和成分的泡沫液对油池火的窒息灭火效果及影响规律。研究发现,铺展性能不佳的泡沫液会逐渐丧失窒息能力,而铺展性能优异的泡沫液能持续发挥窒息作用。提升泡沫液热稳定性有利于在油面形成稳定的液膜,隔绝氧气并降低可燃分子挥发速率。此外,发泡倍率较低的泡沫液的流动性更强,在相同液体流量条件下低倍数泡沫的窒息灭火效果更优。自研的快速型泡沫灭火剂在热稳定性和铺展性能两方面均具备优良的性能,因此其窒息灭火效率和抗复燃能力优于现有的大部分同类泡沫灭火剂。     

大型油罐火灾爆炸危害范围研究

针对大型油罐火灾爆炸对人员伤亡危害范围的问题,采用PHAST软件模拟定量分析了外部环境（风速、大气稳定度、空气湿度）、初始条件（泄漏点离地高度、泄漏孔直径）和其他因素（防火堤面积）对火灾爆炸伤亡半径的影响,根据模拟结果拟合了外部环境和初始条件与池火灾和蒸气云爆炸危害范围的关系式。结果表明:在相同条件下,软件模拟与实验结果误差较小,该研究具有可信性;池火灾危害范围随风速、泄漏点离地高度、泄漏孔当量直径和防火堤面积的增加而增加,而与大气稳定度的关系不大;蒸气云爆炸危害范围随风速的增加而降低,随大气稳定度和泄漏孔当量直径的增加而增加,而与泄漏点离地高度和空气湿度影响不大;拟合得到的外部环境和初始条件与池火灾和蒸气云爆炸危害范围的关系式可为大型油罐火灾爆炸事故中相关作业人员的应急撤离提供决策参考。     

陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景构建研究

以某陆上原油长输管道为例,设定了陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景背景信息及演化过程,从预防、准备、预警、响应、恢复等阶段,梳理分析了事故情景应对全过程的任务及职责主体;针对各项任务从计划预案、人员队伍、装备物资、培训演练、运行机制等方面开展了情景应对能力评估;并针对存在的差距和不足,从企业和政府2个层面提出了针对此类情景的应急能力提升对策建议。该研究可为相关政府及企业加强油气长输管道事故应急准备能力建设提供参考。     

一起非法自制的土锅炉爆炸事故分析

通过介绍自制土锅炉的结构及制造过程,分析了其发生爆炸事故的原因。     

北京市火灾事故特征的统计分析

为全面了解北京市火灾事故的基本情况,使用聚类分析和描述性统计对火灾事故统计数据进行了分析。结果显示,北京火灾事故存在一定的空间分布特征,中南部较其他区域火灾风险较高。火灾事故的时间趋势显示,起火次数、伤亡人数有降低趋势,直接经济损失有上升趋势。不同起火原因引起的火灾事故起数和直接经济损失中,电气和生活用火不慎引起的火灾事故占主要部分。研究对于认识北京火灾事故的特征、发展趋势和有重点的进行火灾事故预防有重要意义。     

原油储罐火灾扬沸形成时间预测模型研究

扬沸火灾是一种突变性火害现象,其发生能导致巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,其形成时间预测问题一直备受关注。根据能量守恒定律,把原油层内的热量传递看作无内热源、常物性的非稳态传热问题,建晓热量传递模型,通过预测油层内的温度分布,结合小尺度油罐扬沸火灾实验结果,推导出扬沸形成时间预测模型。并对其可靠性进行了案例验证,结果表明模型准确,误筹较小。实验发现随着罐径的增大,水层厚度对扬沸形成时间的影响逐渐减小。通过预测模型计算得到：扬沸形成时间与初始油层厚度和罐径的比值存在正比例关系。