Fuzzy logic approach to calculation of thermal hazard distances in process industries

In this paper, a general procedure to deal with uncertainties in each stage of consequence modeling is presented. In the first part of the procedure, the sources of uncertainty are identified and confirmed by sensitivity analysis for the source term, dispersion, physical effects and consequence analysis. While the second part comprises an application of the fuzzy logic system to each step of the consequence modeling. The proposed procedure is verified by the case study for a pool fire liquefied natural gas (LNG) on water. The results in terms of thermal radiation distances are compared with calculations obtained using the Monte Carlo method and with experimental data. The consequence model based on fuzzy logic approach provides less uncertain and more precise results in comparison to the deterministic consequence model.     

Methodology for consequence analysis of LNG releases at deepwater port facilities

A methodology to perform consequence analysis associated with liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a deepwater port (DWP) facility has been presented. Analytical models used to describe the unconfined spill dynamics of LNG are discussed. How to determine the thermal hazard associated with a potential pool fire involving spilled LNG is also presented. Another hazard associated with potential releases of LNG is the dispersion of the LNG vapor. An approach using computational fluid dynamics tools (CFD) is presented. The CFD dispersion methodology is benchmarked against available test data. Using the proposed analysis approach provides estimates of hazard zones associated with newly proposed LNG deepwater ports and their potential impact to the public.     

Validation of FLACS against experimental data sets from the model evaluation database for LNG vapor dispersion

The siting of facilities handling liquefied natural gas (LNG), whether for liquefaction, storage or regasification purposes, requires the hazards from potential releases to be evaluated. One of the consequences of an LNG release is the creation of a flammable vapor cloud, that may be pushed beyond the facility boundaries by the wind and thus present a hazard to the public. Therefore, numerical models are required to determine the footprint that may be covered by a flammable vapor cloud as a result of an LNG release. Several new models have been used in recent years for this type of simulations. This prompted the development of the “Model evaluation protocol for LNG vapor dispersion models” (MEP): a procedure aimed at evaluating quantitatively the ability of a model to accurately predict the dispersion of an LNG vapor cloud.This paper summarizes the MEP requirements and presents the results obtained from the application of the MEP to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model – FLACS. The entire set of 33 experiments included in the model validation database were simulated using FLACS. The simulation results are reported and compared with the experimental data. A set of statistical performance measures are calculated based on the FLACS simulation results and compared with the acceptability criteria established in the MEP. The results of the evaluation demonstrate that FLACS can be considered a suitable model to accurately simulate the dispersion of vapor from an LNG release.     

LNG accident dynamic simulation: Application for hazardous consequence reduction

The evaluation of exclusion (hazard) zones around the LNG stations is essential for risk assessment in LNG industry. In this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been conducted for the two potential hazards, LNG flammable vapor dispersion and LNG pool fire radiation, respectively, to evaluate the exclusion zones. The spatial and temporal distribution of hazard in complex spill scenario has been taken into account in the CFD model. Experimental data from Falcon and Montoir field tests have been used to validate the simulation results. With the valid CFD model, the mitigation of the vapor dispersion with spray water curtains and the pool fire with high expansion foam were investigated. The spray water curtains were studied as a shield to prevent LNG vapor dispersing, and two types of water spray curtain, flat and cone, were analyzed to show their performance for reduction and minimization of the hazard influencing distance and area. The high expansion foam firefighting process was studied with dynamic simulation of the foam action, and the characteristics of the foam action on the reduction of LNG vaporization rate, vapor cloud and flame size as well as the thermal radiation hazard were analyzed and discussed.     

A protocol for the evaluation of LNG vapour dispersion models

The international transport, storage and utilisation of LNG is growing rapidly. Whilst the LNG industry has an excellent safety record, the possibility of an accidental release cannot be discounted. Internationally-accepted standards, such as the 59A Standard of the US National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), provide direction on the assessment of LNG spill hazards and hazard range criteria which must be met. Modelling of the atmospheric dispersion of LNG vapour from accidental spills is one of the critical steps in such hazard analyses. This paper describes a comprehensive evaluation protocol devised for the 59A Standard, specifically for the assessment of LNG vapour dispersion models. The evaluation protocol is based on methodologies developed in previous European Union studies, which have been extended, significantly adapted and tailored to the specific requirements of the evaluation of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour. The protocol comprises scientific evaluation of the numerical and physical basis of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour, model verification, and validation; resulting in a comprehensive model evaluation report which includes qualitative and quantitative criteria for model acceptance. A supporting suite of validation data, and guidance on the use of this data, has also been produced. The NFPA 59A (2009) standard states that LNG vapour dispersion models are acceptable for use if they have been evaluated in accordance with this protocol.     

Application of fire suppression materials on suppression of LNG pool fires

An LNG pool fire is considered one of the main hazards of LNG, together with LNG vapor dispersion. Suppression methods are designed to reduce the hazard exclusion zones, distance to reach radiant heat of 5 kW/m², when an LNG pool fire is considered. For LNG vapor dispersion, the hazard exclusion zone is the distance travelled by the LNG vapor to reach a concentration of 2.5% v/v (half of the LNG lower flammability limit).Warming the LNG vapor to reach positive buoyancy faster is one way to suppress LNG vapor dispersion and reduce evaporation rate (thus fire size and its associated radiant heat) and that is the main objective in LNG pool fire suppression. Based on previous research, the use of high expansion foam has been regarded as the primary method in suppressing LNG pool fires. However, in 1980, another method was introduced as an alternative pool fire suppression system, Foamglas^®. The research concluded that 90% of the radiant heat was successfully reduced. Currently-called Foamglas^® pool fire suppression (Foamglas^® PFS) is a passive mitigation system and is deployed after the leak occurs. Foamglas^® PFS is non-flammable, and has a density one-third of the density of LNG, thus floats when an LNG pool is formed.This paper describes the study and confirmation of Foamglas^®PFS effectiveness in suppressing LNG pool fires. In addition, while Foamglas^® PFS is not expected to suppress LNG vapor dispersion, further investigation was conducted to study the effect of Foamglas^®PFS on LNG vapor dispersion. An LNG field experiment was conducted at Brayton Fire Field. The experimental development, procedures, results and findings are detailed in this paper.     

Quantification of source-level turbulence during LNG spills onto a water pond

The use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to simulate LNG vapor dispersion scenarios has been growing steadily over the last few years, with applications to LNG spills on land as well as on water. Before a CFD model may be used to predict the vapor dispersion hazard distances for a hypothetical LNG spill scenario, it is necessary for the model to be validated with respect to relevant experimental data. As part of a joint-industry project aimed at validating the CFD methodology, the LNG vapor source term, including the turbulence level associated with the evaporation process vapors was quantified for one of the Falcon tests.This paper presents the method that was used to quantify the turbulent intensity of evaporating LNG, by analyzing the video images of one of the Falcon tests, which involved LNG spills onto a water pond. The measured rate of LNG pool growth and spreading and the quantified turbulence intensity that were obtained from the image analysis were used as the LNG vapor source term in the CFD model to simulate the Falcon-1 LNG spill test. Several CFD simulations were performed, using a vaporization flux of 0.127 kg/m² s, radial and outward spreading velocities of 1.53 and 0.55 m/s respectively, and a range of turbulence kinetic energy values between 2.9 and 28.8 m²/s². The resulting growth and spread of the vapor cloud within the impounded area and outside of it were found to match the observed behavior and the experimental measured data.The results of the analysis presented in this paper demonstrate that a detailed and accurate definition of the LNG vapor source term is critical in order for any vapor cloud dispersion simulation to provide useful and reliable results.     

Uncertainty representation and propagation in quantified risk assessment using fuzzy sets

It is generally acknowledged that there are substantial uncertainties present in any analysis of risk. This paper provides a brief overview of the current techniques used for uncertainty analyses, and highlights their inappropriateness for practical use in the complete risk assessment process. The concept of fuzzy sets as a means for quantifying uncertainty is introduced and a case study demonstrates the application of this method to a simple consequence analysis where parameter uncertainty is considered. The results of this fuzzy analysis are compared with those of a more traditional probabilistic approach using a Monte Carlo simulation. This comparison demonstrates that the novel approach of fuzzy sets is a more appropriate technique due to its non-statistical nature and that the amount of computation required is substantially reduced compared to the traditional probabilistic approach. The versatility of fuzzy set theory suggests that this approach could also be used to quantify other types of uncertainty present in the risk assessment process, including model uncertainty and expert opinion.     

Modeling the vapor source term associated with the spill of LNG into a sump or impoundment area

The recent publication of evaluation protocols for vapor source term models and vapor dispersion models have influenced the modeling approaches that can be used for approval of new and expansion projects at LNG receiving terminals. In the past few years the scientific basis of integral vapor source term models has been questioned with growing concerns regarding their validity. In this paper, the shallow water equations (SWEs) were solved to study the characteristics of the evaporating LNG pool associated with a constant flow rate spill of LNG into a concrete sump. In the early stages of pool spreading, the leading edge thickness profile of the SWE model scales with the square root of the distance from the leading edge as the pool spreads. After the edge of the pool reaches the wall, the reflected wave forms a hydraulic jump that travels back towards the center of the pool at a speed that is considerably slower than the initial spreading of the pool. Once the hydraulic jump reaches the center, the pool assumes a nearly flat free surface for the rest of the spill. The pool spreading and the rate of evaporation from the SWEs were then compared to the solution provided by the integral model, PHAST. The two approaches were found to agree well with one another. The SWE model was also used to demonstrate the influence of an elevated spill source. With an elevated source, the LNG pool spreads faster, significantly increasing the initial rate of vaporization and peak vaporization rate. This increase in the initial rate of vaporization could lead to an increase in the vapor cloud hazard distance. The SWE model was also used to demonstrate the influence of an inclined sump floor in the shape of an inverted cone where the spilling LNG accumulates in the low vertex of the cone. Inclined sump floors can be used to significantly reduce the cumulative evaporation, making them attractive as a possible mitigation approach in cases where a containment sump is located close to a property boundary.     

Use of water spray curtain to disperse LNG vapor clouds

Effective safety measures to prevent and mitigate the consequences of an accidental release of flammable LNG are critical. Water spray curtain is currently recognized as an effective technique to control and mitigate various hazards in the industries. It has been used to absorb, dilute and disperse both toxic and flammable vapor cloud. It is also used as protection against heat radiation, in case of fighting vapor cloud fire. Water curtain has also been considered as one of the most economic and promising LNG vapor cloud control techniques. Water curtains are expected to enhance LNG vapor cloud dispersion mainly through mechanical effects, dilution, and thermal effects. The actual phenomena involved in LNG vapor and water curtain interaction were not clearly established from previous research. LNG spill experiments have been performed at the Brayton Fire Training Field at Texas A&M University (TAMU) to understand the effect of water curtain in controlling and dispersing LNG vapor cloud. This paper summarizes experimental methodology and presents data from two water curtain tests. The analysis of the test results are also presented to identify the effectiveness of these two types of water spray curtains in enhancing the LNG vapor cloud dispersion.     

Influence of active mitigation barriers on LNG dispersion

In recent years, particular interest has been direct to the issues of risk associated with the storage, transport and use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) due to the increasing consideration that it is receiving for energy applications. Consequently, a series of experimental and modeling studies to analyze the behavior of LNG have been carried out to collect an archive of evaporation, dispersion and combustion information, and several mathematical models have been developed to represent LNG dispersion in realistic environments and to design mitigation barriers.This work uses Computational Fluid Dynamics codes to model the dispersion of a dense gas in the atmosphere after accidental release. In particular, it will study the dispersion of LNG due to accidental breakages of a pipeline and it will analyze how it is possible to mitigate the dispersing cloud through walls and curtains of water vapor and air, also providing a criterion for the design of such curtains.     

Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

Numerical simulation of LNG dispersion under two-phase release conditions

The use of LNG (liquefied natural gas) as fuel brings up issues regarding safety and acceptable risk. The potential hazards associated with an accidental LNG spill should be evaluated, and a useful tool in LNG safety assessment is computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. In this paper, the ADREA-HF code has been applied to simulate LNG dispersion in open-obstructed environment based on Falcon Series Experiments. During these experiments LNG was released and dispersed over water surface. The spill area is confined with a billboard upwind of the water pond. FA1 trial was chosen to be simulated, because its release and weather conditions (high total spill volume and release rate, low wind speed) allow the gravitational force to influence the cold, dense vapor cloud and can be considered as a benchmark for LNG dispersion in fenced area. The source was modeled with two different approaches: as vapor pool and as two phase jet and the predicted methane concentration at sensors' location was compared with the experimental one. It is verified that the source model affect to a great extent the LNG dispersion and the best case was the one modeling the source as two phase jet. However, the numerical results in the case of two phase jet source underestimate the methane concentration for most of the sensors. Finally, the paper discusses the effect of neglecting the ?9.3° experimental wind direction, which leads to the symmetry assumption with respect to wind and therefore less computational costs. It was found that this effect is small in case of a jet source but large in the case of a pool source.     

Supporting the selection of process and plant design options by Inherent Safety KPIs

Effective support of inherent safety implementation in process design requires a quantitative metric for monitoring and communicating the expected safety performance of alternative design options. The Inherent Safety Key Performance Indicators (IS-KPIs) methodology was developed to provide both a flexible procedure for the identification of the hazards, and a sound consequence-based quantification of the safety performance. The integration of different hazard identification techniques yields the relevant accident scenarios for each unit in the plant. The calculation of credible damage distances by consolidate consequence simulation models provides a sound basis for the definition of the KPIs based on worst case effects. Specific indicators were devoted to hazards from external actions, as natural events and intentional malicious acts. The methodology was demonstrated by the comparison of alternative technological options for LNG regasification. The application evidenced the potential of the IS-KPI method in pinpointing the critical issues related to each alternative configuration.     

Evaporating liquid flow in a channel (An integral model based on shallow water flow approximation)

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) storage facilities generally include channels to convey potential spills of the liquid to an impoundment. There is increasing concern that dispersion of vapors generated by flow of LNG in a channel may lead to higher than limit vapor concentrations for safety at site boundary from channels that may be close to the dike walls. This issue is of recent concern to regulatory agencies, because the calculation of vapor hazard distance(s) from LNG flow in a channel is not required under existing LNG facility siting standards or regulations.An important parameter that directly affects the calculated LNG vapor dispersion distance is the source strength (i.e., the rate of vaporization of LNG flow from the wetted channel surfaces, as a function of spatial position and time). In this paper a model is presented which considers the variation of the depth of the flowing LNG with spatial location and time, and calculates the spatial and temporal dependence of the mass rate of vapor generation. Self similar profiles for the spatial variation of the thermal boundary layer in the liquid wetted wall and liquid depth variation are assumed. The variation with time of the location of the liquid spread front and the evaporation rate are calculated for the case of a constant LNG spill rate into a rectangular channel. The effects of two different channel slopes are evaluated. Details of the results and their impact on dispersion distances are discussed.     

Dynamic simulation of hazard analysis of radiations from LNG pool fire

Because of its highly flammable nature, any accidental release of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could possibly pose significant fire hazard. In this study, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was used to analyze this hazard around an existing LNG station. By assuming an LNG pool fire occurring in an impoundment area, dynamic simulations of flame development have been carried out. In order to provide more reliable simulation results, a study was first conducted to determine the mesh independence and suitable time step. The results of CFD simulations were also compared with those using the commonly-used phenomenological model. The simulation results showed that LNG tanks in the neighbor dike area could withstand the received radiant heat flux, and the areas involving human activities, such as security office and public area, were also secure enough for people to escape from the hazards. LNG vaporizers, which are often located close to tank area, could possibly receive relatively higher radiant heat flux. High temperature achieved on vaporizers could cause material failure. CFD calculations have also indicated that increasing the spacing distance or using flowing water curtain could reduce this temperature. It is concluded that CFD method is significantly more effective to account for LNG hazard analysis and provide realistic results for complicated scenarios, thus providing meaningful information for safety consideration.     

FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性评估研究

浮式储存和再气化装置（FSRU）运行过程中易导致火灾爆炸等事故的发生,为有效评估FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,采用火灾爆炸危险指数评估法,对运用FSRU的某浮式LNG接收终端进行危险性评估;选取LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等9个单元,研究确定了一般工艺危险性系数、特殊工艺危险性系数、安全措施补偿系数等参数,得出了补偿前后的火灾爆炸危险性指数,有效评估了FSRU作业过程火灾爆炸危险性,并基于研究结果提出了保障FSRU作业安全的对策措施与建议。研究结果表明,安全措施补偿前,缘于LNG/NG本身的火灾危险性和数量较大,能量高度集中,LNG运输船与FSRU装料作业等单元的火灾爆炸危险等级均达到了“非常大”;在采取了一系列的安全措施补偿后,火灾爆炸危险指数降低了3/5左右。这对系统深入地研究FSRU作业安全具有较重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。     

LNG as a potential alternative fuel - Safety and security of storage facilities

The aim of this article is to summarize the safety and security aspects of storing of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a potential alternative fuel. The contribution deals with possible scenarios of accidents associated with LNG storage facilities and with a methodology for the assessment of vulnerability of such facilities. The protection of LNG storage facilities as element of critical infrastructure should also be a matter of interest to the state. The study presents the results of determination of hazardous zones around LNG facilities in the event of various sorts of release. For calculations, the programs ALOHA, EFFECTS and TerEx were used and results obtained were compared. Scenarios modelled within this study represent a possible approach to the preliminary assessment of risk that should be verified by more detailed modelling (CFD). These scenarios can also be used for a quick estimation of areas endangered by an incident or accident. The results of modelling of the hazardous zones contribute to a reduction in risk of major accidents associated with these potential alternative energy sources.     

危险化学品泄漏扩散模型的研究现状分析与比较

为了对危险化学品港口装卸过程中泄漏危险度进行量化评定,基于泄漏扩散模型提高港口的应急处理技术,对危险化学品泄漏扩散模型的研究现状从理论研究、试验研究、应用研究3方面进行深入分析。着重对高斯模型(Gaussian model),BM模型,Sutton模型,FEM3模型,箱及相似模型,P-G模型等模型从理论描述方法、适用对象和范围、计算精度和难易、参数选取等方面进行优缺点的对比研究,认为:由于危险化学品泄漏和扩散行为的复杂性,影响因素的多样性,使各类模型在具备一定的理论价值和现实意义的同时,还存在着参数选取不确定性、试验模拟差异性以及实际应用局限性的问题和不足,运用计算机技术完善试验结果数据库、改进数学仿真模型是其进一步研究发展的趋势。