Distribution and abundance of penaeid shrimps in a hypersaline lagoon in northwestern Mexico,emphasizing the brown shrimp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Farfantepenaeus californiensis</Emphasis> life cycle

Life histories of penaeid shrimp have been classified according to the preferred habitats of postlarval, juvenile, and adult stages, ranging from exclusively estuarine to exclusively offshore waters. Brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus californiensis migrate to an offshore habitat at the juvenile stage or even a smaller body size. This paper presents results of monthly samplings from 24 stations over 1 year in the Agiabampo Lagoon complex, a hypersaline lagoon in northwestern Mexico. Five species of penaeid shrimp were identified, with brown shrimp the most abundant during the year of sampling. Results suggest that residency of brown shrimp inside this lagoon is longer than reported in previous studies. An interaction between length and environmental variables (near-surface temperature, salinity, and rainfall) appear to be cues concerning migration.

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Contrasts between spawning times of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anguilla</Emphasis> species estimated from larval sampling at sea and from otolith analysis of recruiting glass eels

This study reviewed literature on spawning times for three north temperate species of anguillid eels estimated by sampling for small leptocephali (larvae) at sea and for several temperate and tropical species by back-calculating from putative daily ages derived from otolith increment analysis of glass eels that recruited to coastal waters. Estimates from otoliths of European eels, Anguilla anguilla, American eels, Anguilla rostrata, and Japanese eels, Anguilla japonica, imply much more protracted spawning seasons than are indicated by sampling at sea during various times of year. European eels are inferred to spawn year-round from otolith analysis, but the smallest, recently hatched leptocephali are found only in late winter and spring. From otoliths, the spawning times of these three species are all estimated to occur much later in the year than when small leptocephali are found at sea, indicating that ages appear to be underestimated. For these and other temperate and tropical eels, there are inconsistencies in assigned ages among various studies, which are most extreme for the European eel. This species has the longest larval migration and often has an opaque zone in the glass eels’ otoliths where it is difficult to discern growth increments. These inconsistencies suggest that interpretation of otolith growth increments is incorrect at least in some studies, and the apparently consistent mismatch between otolith and sea-sampling studies suggests that increments may not always be formed at some period during the unusual early life history of anguillids. Because daily increments may be formed in eels during most of their early life history, future research is needed to determine the cause of the mismatch of glass eel aging studies and the apparent spawning times of eels offshore. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Size-dependent behavior of tuna in an array of fish aggregating devices (FADs)

Several lines of evidence indicate that aggregations of yellowfin tuna associated with floating objects are more frequently composed of small animals than larger ones. Also, the diet of small yellowfin tuna caught at anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs) around Oahu, Hawaii, was found to shift quite rapidly when these fish reached approximately 50 cm FL. In order to test for ontogenetic changes in aggregation behavior, we tagged and released two distinct size classes of yellowfin tuna in an array of anchored FADs around Oahu, Hawaii. Twenty-four yellowfin tuna 30–39 cm FL and 16 yellowfin tuna 63–83 cm FL were tagged with acoustic transmitters and released near anchored FADs equipped with automated acoustic receivers. Fish in the smaller size class stayed about 2.5 times longer at individual FADs than the larger fish (mean 4.05 days vs. 1.65 days) and displayed larger horizontal movements within the array. However, the durations of unassociated phases, residence times in the entire FAD array, percentage of time spent associated with FADs and numbers of movements between FADs did not show any difference between the two size groups. The observed size-dependent behavior is discussed in terms of physiological abilities, diet segregation and anti-predator behavior.     

Behavior of bigeye (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus obesus</Emphasis>) and skipjack (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Katsuwonus pelamis</Emphasis>) tunas within aggregations associated with floating objects in the equatorial eastern Pacific

The horizontal and vertical movements of bigeye (Thunnus obesus Lowe, 1839) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis Linnaeus, 1758) tunas within large multi-species aggregations associated with moored buoys or a drifting vessel were investigated, using ultrasonic telemetry and archival tags, along with sonar imaging, in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (at 2°S–95°W and 2°N–95°W). Four sets of observations, each consisting of the concurrent monitoring of pairs of skipjack and/or bigeye with implanted acoustic or archival tags, were conducted in May 2002 and 2003. Ultrasonic telemetry data were not collected until 24 h or more after the fish were tagged and released, to avoid any abnormal behavior as a consequence of tagging. The pairs of acoustically tagged bigeye and skipjack, and also the entire aggregations, were primarily upcurrent of the moored buoy and downcurrent of the drifting vessel during the day. At night the aggregations were observed to be more diffuse, and the fish were feeding on organisms of the deep scattering layer. The aggregations returned to positions upcurrent of the buoy or downcurrent of the drifting vessel at dawn, commonly breezing at the surface within cohesive monospecific schools. The bigeye and skipjack had concurrent changes in depth records, occupying significantly greater mean depths at night than during the day, in most cases. When associated with a moored buoy, bigeye depth distributions were deeper during the day and night than those of skipjack, but bigeye depth distributions were shallower during the day and night than those of skipjack when associated with the drifting vessel. Simultaneous depth records of a large and a small bigeye with archival tags associated with a moored buoy also indicated diel changes in depth. The mean depth at night was significantly less than during the day for the larger bigeye, but the mean depth during the day was significantly less than during the night for the smaller bigeye. The mean depths during the day and night were significantly greater for the larger bigeye than the smaller.Electronic Supplementary Material  Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00227-004-1480-xCommunicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

Periodic behavior and residence time of yellowfin and bigeye tuna associated with fish aggregating devices around Okinawa Islands,as identified with automated listening stations

In order to better understand the associative behavior of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye tuna (T. obesus) with anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs), we conducted long-term monitoring of these tuna tagged with ultrasonic transmitters, using automated receivers deployed on seven FADs around the Okinawa Islands. Current and surface water temperature were also monitored by data loggers attached to the stations as a way to examine the influence of these factors on the associative behavior of tuna with FADs. We monitored a total of 52 yellowfin and 11 bigeye tuna at monitoring FADs for a period of 2.5 years. We found that the majority of tuna remained continuously at the monitoring stations for a certain period (max.=55 days) without day-scale (>24 h) absences, until they left the stations completely. The residence time at a single FAD was estimated to be about 7 days, as the half-life for both yellowfin and bigeye tuna. No inter-specific differences were seen, though there was a significant difference in residence time between two size classes: the residence time of the larger size class was shorter than that of the smaller size class. We also found there was a periodicity of approximately 24 h and regularity of associative behavior, estimated based on the fluctuation pattern of the detection rate and of short-term (<24 h) absences. In particular, absences of several hours occurring once a day with high temporal precision were considered to be excursions within several nautical miles from the FADs. These results indicate that tuna express periodic behavior in relation to the FADs and can locate the FADs precisely enough to return to them after a certain time. No relationship was seen between associative behavior and abiotic oceanographic conditions. Therefore, the biological environment (prey availability, the presence of predators, etc.) and the internal state of the individual (hunger, etc.) may be more important than abiotic environmental cues for inducing changes in associative behavior and/or the departure from FADs. In addition, the strong association of tuna with a single FAD and the relatively prolonged residence time observed in the present study may relate to the vigorous activity of FAD fisheries in Okinawa and their utilization of a large amount of bait.Communicated by T. Ikeda, Hakodate     

Testing homogeneity of capture probabilities of animals in a removal experiment

Consider the removal experiment used to estimate population sizes. Statistical methods towards testing the homogeneity of capture probabilities of animals, including a graphical diagnostic and a formal test, are presented and illustrated by real biological examples. Simulation is used to assess the test and compare it with the χ² test.

Multi-parameter renewal processes and simulation of forest fires

The concept of the renewal property is extended to processes indexed by a multidimensional time parameter. The definition given includes not only partial sum processes, but also Poisson processes and many other point processes whose jump points are not totally ordered. Various properties of renewal processes are discussed. Renewal processes are proposed as a basis for modelling the spread of a forest fire under a prevailing wind.

Simultaneous behavior of skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), bigeye (Thunnus obsesus), and yellowfin (T. albacares) tunas, within large multi-species aggregations associated with drifting fish aggregating devices (FADs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean

Ten separate experiments monitoring the simultaneous behaviors of 26 skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), 26 bigeye (Thunnus obesus), and 33 yellowfin (T. albacares) tunas within large multi-species aggregations associated with drifting fish aggregating devices (FADs) were investigated using ultrasonic telemetry in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. Experiments were conducted during a research cruise aboard a chartered purse seine vessel. Purse seine sets were made on the tuna aggregations associated with FADs at the termination of six of the ten experiments. Seventeen of the 44 tagged tunas were not recaptured indicating the transient nature of the associative behavior of tunas with FADs. Although there was considerable overlap in the depths of the three species, by day and night, there were some species-specific differences and diel differences within species. While we documented spatial and temporal differences in the schooling behavior of the three tuna species, the differences do not appear sufficient such that modifications in purse seine fishing practices could effectively avoid the capture of small bigeye and yellowfin tunas, while optimizing the capture of skipjack tuna in purse seine sets on FADs.     

Diet and trophic position of Atlantic bluefin tuna (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus thynnus</Emphasis>) inferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis

Stable ¹³C and ¹⁵N isotope analyses of scale, bone, and muscle tissues were used to investigate diet and trophic position of North Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus Linnaeus) during residency in the northwest Atlantic Ocean off the northeast coast of the United States. Adult bluefin tuna scales collected from fish between June and October 2001 were significantly enriched in ¹³C compared to both muscle and bone across all months, while muscle was significantly enriched in ¹⁵N compared to either bone or scale throughout the same period. In muscle tissue, there was evidence of a shift over the summer from prey with ¹³C values (–17 to –18) that were characteristic of silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis) to species with ¹³C values of –20 to –21 that were similar to Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and sandlance (Ammodytes americanus). Depletion of ¹⁵N values in adult scales and bone compared to muscle tissue may be explained by bone and scale samples representing juvenile or life-long feeding habits, isotopic routing, or isotopic differences in amino acid composition of the three tissue types. Adult bluefin tuna were estimated to be feeding at a trophic position similar to pelagic sharks in the northwest Atlantic Ocean, while the trophic positions of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares), albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga), and juvenile bluefin tuna were indicative of a diet of up to a full trophic position below adult bluefin tuna. The close relationship between the juvenile bluefin ¹⁵N values and those of suspension feeders suggests that nektonic crustaceans or zooplankton may contribute significantly to the diet of bluefin tuna, a food source previously overlooked for this species in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

A stochastic forest fire growth model

We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

A note on non-parametric and semi-parametric modeling of wildfire hazard in Los Angeles County, California

This paper explores the use of, and problems that arise in, kernel smoothing and parametric estimation of the relationships between wildfire incidence and various meteorological variables. Such relationships may be treated as components in separable point process models for wildfire activity. The resulting models can be used for comparative purposes in order to assess the predictive performance of the Burning Index.

Fishery resource management in Chilika lagoon: a study on coastal conservation in the Eastern Coast of India

A significant proportion of the fishing population comprises small-scale fishermen and many studies illustrate that these people are exploited by middlemen in the process of fish marketing combined with money lending. The negative dependency gives rise to poverty and triggers indiscriminate fish catch that threatens fishery resources depletion. This article explores the root causes of failures in resource-led development from the viewpoint of coastal resource conservation. The study presents a case study of Chilika lagoon, India and focuses on the interaction between small-scale fishermen and middlemen. The findings reveal that most of the small-scale fishermen have been exploited by specific middlemen and the underlying causes of the present fish marketing structure stem from (i) indebtedness and (ii) the unstable situation because of perpetual conflicts over fishery resources among the fishers across Chilika lagoon. Based on these observations, this article presents some recommendations on fishery resource conservation from the perspective of a fish marketing structure.

A note on data augmentation and iterative simulation for survival rate estimation

In this paper we examine the use of data augmentation techniques for simplifying iterative simulation in the context of both Bayesian and classical statistical inference for survival rate estimation. We examine two distinct model families common in population ecology to illustrate our ideas, ring-recovery models and capture–recapture models, and we present the computational advantage of this approach. We discuss also the fact that problems associated with identifiability in the classical framework can be overcome using data augmentation, but highlight the dangers in doing so under both inferential paradigms.

Determining the optimum number of increments in composite sampling

Composite sampling can be more cost effective than simple random sampling. This paper considers how to determine the optimum number of increments to use in composite sampling. Composite sampling terminology and theory are outlined and a method is developed which accounts for different sources of variation in compositing and data analysis. This method is used to define and understand the process of determining the optimum number of increments that should be used in forming a composite. The blending variance is shown to have a smaller range of possible values than previously reported when estimating the number of increments in a composite sample. Accounting for differing levels of the blending variance significantly affects the estimated number of increments.

Trap mortality in mark-recapture studies

When animals die in traps in a mark-recapture study, straightforward likelihood inferences are possible in a class of models. The class includes M₀, M_t, and M_b as reported by White et al. (Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-8787-NERP, pp 235, 1982), those that do not involve heterogeneity. We include three Markov chain “persistence” models and show that they provide good fits in a trapping study of deer mice in the Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument of Southern Oregon where trapping mortality was high.

Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers indicate unidirectional gene flow of Indo-Pacific to Atlantic bigeye tuna (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thunnus obesus</Emphasis>) populations,and their admixture off southern Africa

A sharp genetic break separates Atlantic from Indo-Pacific bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) populations, as the frequencies of two major mitochondrial (mt) DNA types ( and ) found in this species are different across the tip of southern Africa. The level of nucleotide divergence between mtDNA types and is of the same order as that between reproductively isolated taxa. To further investigate the genetic structure of bigeye tuna over its distribution range and in the contact zone off southern Africa, bigeye tuna samples collected between 1992 and 2001 (including samples from a previous mtDNA survey) were characterized for four nuclear DNA loci and for mtDNA. Nuclear markers did not support the hypothesis that and mitochondria characterize sibling species. Significant allele-frequency differences at one intronic locus (GH2) and one microsatellite locus (µ208) were found between Atlantic and Indo-Pacific samples, although the level of nuclear genetic differentiation (Weir and Cockerhams =0.025 to 0.042) was much lower than in mtDNA ( =0.664 to 0.807). Probabilistic Bayesian assignment of individuals to a population confirmed that southern African bigeye tuna samples represent a simple mixture of individuals from Atlantic and Indian stocks that do not interbreed, with a higher contribution from Indian Ocean individuals (about 2/3 vs. 1/3).Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Using data augmentation via the Gibbs Sampler to incorporate missing covariate structure in linear models for ecological assessments

Missing covariate values in linear regression models can be an important problem facing environmental researchers. Existing missing value treatment methods such as Multiple Imputation (MI), the EM algorithm and Data Augmentation (DA) have the assumption that both observed and unobserved data come from the same distribution, most commonly a multivariate normal or a conditionally multivariate normal family. These methods do try to incorporate the missing data mechanism and rely on the assumption of Missing At Random (MAR). We present a DA method which does not rely on the MAR assumption and can model missing data mechanisms and covariate structure. This method utilizes the Gibbs Sampler as a tool for incorporating these structures and mechanisms. We apply this method to an ecological data set that relates fish condition to environmental variables. Notice that the presented DA method detects relationships that are not detected when other missing data methods are employed.

Confidence limits on one-stage model parameters in benchmark risk assessment

In modern environmental risk analysis, inferences are often desired on those low dose levels at which a fixed benchmark risk is achieved. In this paper, we study the use of confidence limits on parameters from a simple one-stage model of risk historically popular in benchmark analysis with quantal data. Based on these confidence bounds, we present methods for deriving upper confidence limits on extra risk and lower bounds on the benchmark dose. The methods are seen to extend automatically to the case where simultaneous inferences are desired at multiple doses. Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the parameter estimates and the confidence limits under this setting.