Nutrition, Disease and Death in Times of Famine

In this article we review the relationship between malnutrition and mortality, and the interaction of morbidity, with the aim of clarifying the health risks of malnutrition in situations of famine and food insecurity. Apart from reviewing what is known about this relationship, we highlight areas where further research is needed. Among refugee and famine affected populations living in camps, there appears to be a close association between high rates of malnutrition and excess mortality. Results from communitybased prospective studies of malnutrition and mortality among individuals conclude that as nutritional status declines the risk of death increases, although the discriminating power of different nutritional indices and the strength of the association varies considerably in different locations and at different times. These differences are attributed mainly to the different prevailing patterns of morbidity and growth failure, which are influenced by both environmental and social factors. In situations of famine and population displacement, the deterioration in the health environment increases exposure to infection and is likely to raise the threshold of nutritional status which corresponds to an increased risk of mortality. This has important implications for nutritional assessments and interventions.     

Nutritional Assessments, Food Security and Famine

The widely held view that malnutrition is a late indicator of famine is challenged on the basis of evidence that people often deliberately reduce their food intake as an early response to inadequate food security. This broadens the possible interventions in response to high malnutrition rates to include measures to support livelihoods under threat of collapse. In the late stages of famine, social disruption and distress migration often result in a degraded health environment which may raise the threshold of nutritional status associated with an increased mortality risk. It is important to assess the underlying causes of malnutrition and the associated health risks. At present, the main objective of nutrition surveys is usually to obtain a reliable estimate of the prevalence of malnutrition among children under five years of age, with little analysis of the underlying causes of malnutrition. Experience from the 1984-85 famine in Darfur led to the development of an alternative approach to nutritional assessment which could be applicable elsewhere in Africa. The combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was particularly valuable as a means of gaining a wider and deeper understanding of the nature of the nutritional situation.     

Famine, gold and guns: the suri of southwestern ethiopia, 1985-91

Over the past few years, the Suri have lived through a deep ecological and social crisis without substantial external aid from either the Ethiopian government or international aid agencies. They have experienced drought, cattle disease and an increasing level of violent conflict with their neighbours, leading to the severe disruption of their traditional agro-pastoral subsistence system and settlement pattern. Through migration, the exploitation of gold resources and investment in automatic weapons, however, they have managed virtually a full recovery of their economy and society.     

Development of a Computer Workstation for Famine Early Warning and Food Security

Beginning in 1990, the University of Arizona, Arizona Remote Sensing Center (ARSC) has been involved in a collaborative effort with the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Remote Sensing Center of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations in designing and developing an integrated computer workstation for famine early warning. The goal of the project is to provide food security analysts with a set of computer tools to manage a very large and diverse set of data for predicting the onset of food security emergencies for every country on Earth. The initial stage of the project involved the conceptual definition of system elements and the development of overall system architecture. We are now developing an open, flexible, and portable system designed to significantly assist the work of the analysts. System architecture provides a task-specific and user-friendly graphic user interface (GUI) within a Windows environment that will link image processing, geographic information system (GIS), spreadsheet, text, and graphics software packages into a single operational environment. A relational database management system (RDBMS) is serving as the back-end of the workstation to facilitate data storage and retrieval and as a means to preserve analysis methodologies.     

Famine early warning systems and the use of socio-economic data

Famine early warning systems using socio-economic data suffer from several problems. One is that they cannot, and do not attempt to, distinguish between qualitatively different kinds of famine. The second is that they cannot predict these either accurately or early enough. This is because all the socio-economic indicators produce both false positives and false negatives, the indicators themselves are "late" and because interpretation of the data is complex and time-consuming. The third problem is that within the context of a famine that is occurring, these indicators cannot predict excess mortality. The argument is illustrated with examples from the 1984–5 famine in Darfur, Sudan.     

Malnutrition and Poverty in the Early Stages of Famine: North Darfur, 1988–90

In this article we report findings on the relationship between malnutrition and poverty during a period of acute food insecurity in Darfur, Sudan. Children of rich and poor families were equally likely to be malnourished, which is explained in terms of people's responses to the threat of famine. This finding has important implications for targeting interventions in the early stages of famine. Appropriate interventions at the early stages of famine are livelihood and income support to the most vulnerable. The entitlement theory of famine causation assumes that the poor are most vulnerable, and become malnourished and die during famines. In this article we show that this assumption does not hold. Even though poverty is the root cause of malnutrition, it does not follow that anthropometric status can be used to target individual poor families, or even that targeting the poor is appropriate in famine situations.     

Entitlements and the Wollo Famine of 1982–1985

The traglic recent events in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa have again foccussed attention on the different anaytical approaches to the problems iof famine. Perhaps the most important analytical contribution to this field has been Sen's "entitlements approach." One of the case studies Sen used to articulate this approach was of the 1972–1973 famine in Wollo Province, Ethiopia. This article provides a provisional assessment of the famine process in the Wollo during 1982–1985 to set against the analysis by Sen of the earlier famine. Some striking contrasts are revealed.     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Famine intensity and magnitude scales: a proposal for an instrumental definition of famine

Ambiguities in current usage of the term "famine" have had tragic implications for response and accountability in a number of recent food crises. This paper proposes a new approach to defining famine based on the use of intensity and magnitude scales, where "intensity" refers to the severity of the crisis at a given location and point in time, while "magnitude" describes the aggregate impact of a crisis. The scales perform three operations on "famine": first, moving from a binary conception of "famine/no famine" to a graduated, multi-level definition; second, disaggregating the dimensions of intensity and magnitude; and third, assigning harmonised "objective" criteria in place of subjective, case-by-case judgements. If adopted, the famine scales should contribute to more effective and proportionate responses, as well as greater accountability in future food crises.     

先秦时期农业减灾救荒思想研究

我国先秦时期形成了较为系统的农业减灾救荒思想,它包含灾前预防思想、农业减灾思想和灾后救荒思想三大部分。中国古代的减灾和救荒两大思想体系由此成为有机整体,这在三代(夏、商、周时期)和春秋战国时期农业生产的转型发展过程中产生了积极的促进作用。研究这一时期的农业减灾救荒思想对于后世的防灾减灾极具借鉴意义。     

中国近代灾荒史理论探析

中国近代灾荒史是中国灾荒史的断代史.中国近代灾荒史作为一个研究的有机系统,是由灾害、灾荒、灾因、灾荒社会问题、灾荒救治等子系统组成,各系统又有自己的组成要素,这些架构了中国近代灾荒史的学科体系.中国近代灾荒史与灾害学、社会学、经济史、政治军事史、外交史之间有密切的关系,深入研究中国近代灾荒史,加强灾荒史教育,对今天防灾...     

The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya

The context of famine in Turkana has changed in recent years as the role played by livestock raiding in contributing to famine has increased. External responses to famine in Turkana have largely been drought driven, for example, food assistance and livestock restocking programmes, which have failed to meet the real needs of herders. The role of armed conflict in the form of raiding has been overlooked as a common feature of societies facing famine and food insecurity.The traditional livelihood-enhancing functions of livestock raiding are contrasted with the more predatory forms common today. The direct impact of raiding on livelihood security can be devastating, while the threat of raids and measures taken to cope with this uncertainty undermine herders' livelihood strategies. Self-imposed restrictions on mobility negatively affect the vegetation of both grazed and ungrazed pastures and restrict the available survival strategies. Predatory raiding leads to a collapse in the moral economy. Some implications of this for relief and development policy are considered, including approaches to conflict resolution.