基于中亚气候数据的开都河流域历史气候资料重建

20世纪被认为可能是近千年中气候最暖的时期,但由于20世纪前50余年西北干旱区没有或少有实测气候资料,因此该区域20世纪气候变化评估存在很大的不确定性。重建这一时期气候资料有助于提高20世纪干旱区气候变化评估可靠性。论文应用Delta方法和典型相关分析(CCA)方法,结合1961-1990年开都河流域以及中亚3个气象站点1901-1990年逐月气温和降水资料重建开都河流域1901-1960年气候资料,并分析比较两种方法的精度和适用性。研究结果表明:Delta方法重建的各气象站逐月气温整体上优于CCA方法;CCA方法重建的降水整体上优于Delta方法。Delta方法重建的1901-1960年逐月气温序列不同年份之间变化幅度大,CCA方法重建的气温序列相对比较平缓。两种方法重建的降水序列中均表现出各个年份年内分布差异大的特征。     

ENSO事件对珠江中下游地区降水氢氧同位素的影响

水汽源区变化与ENSO事件显著影响季风区水循环过程。基于珠江中下游地区4个GNIP站点（中国香港、广州、桂林、柳州）的降水同位素及OLR（向外长波辐射）数据,研究了ENSO背景下δ¹⁸O的时空分布特征及ENSO事件对降水中氢氧同位素特征的影响机制。结果表明：ENSO事件是影响稳定同位素年际差异的主要因素,通过影响雨季降水的年内分配而实现;正常年大气降水线方程的斜率与截距均大于厄尔尼诺年而小于拉尼娜年;拉尼娜年加强 δ¹⁸O的反温度效应,厄尔尼诺年减弱反温度效应;厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜年热带辐合带的变化规律呈现出相反的趋势,其OLR场的变化与研究区稳定同位素特征有着较强的对应关系;ENSO事件年不同的水汽源区相对湿度特征是造成d值年际差异的主要因素。     

Colour preferences influences odour learning in the hawkmoth, Macroglossum stellatarum

The hummingbird hawkmoth, Macroglossum stellatarum, learns colour fast and reliably. It has earlier been shown to spontaneously feed from odourless artificial flowers. Now, we have studied odour learning. The moths were trained to discriminate feeders of the same colour but marked with different odours. They did not learn to discriminate two natural flower odours when they were presented with the innately preferred colour blue, but they did learn this discrimination combined with yellow or green colours that are less attractive to the moth. The yellow colour could be trained to become as attractive as the innately preferred blue colour and the blue colour could be trained to become less attractive. This is the first proof of odour learning in a diurnal moth. The results show that M. stellatarum can use more than one modality in their foraging behaviour and that the system is plastic. By manipulating the preferences for the different colours, their influence on odour learning could be changed.     

上海地区大气稳定度和气象区块的研究

根据１９８６年６月～１９８７年５月从上海市区４个站、郊县２个站的气象资料,研究了上海地区的大气稳定度和气象区块。采用３种方法确定稳定度的级别,并进行了比较。应用对风向、风速的聚类分析方法划定气象区块。对两站之间风的相关系数用了３种不同的公式进行计算。利用这些相关系数的结果,同时采用“最短距离法”和“最长距离法”,得到相关树枝图,并由此得出了上海地区的气象区块图。     

Adaptations to the dynamics of rural water supply from natural sources: A village example in semi-arid Nigeria

Domestic and agro-economic activities in the semi-arid region of Nigeria rely exclusively on rainfall, streamflow and groundwater in deep and alluvial (fadama) aquifers. Such water supply systems are subject to considerable seasonal and inter-annual variability. However, a combination of the various sources may mitigate the effects of water scarcity. This study describes the dynamics of the water sources for a village in northeastern Nigeria as an example that demonstrates the linkages between rainfall, streamflow and groundwater. Such linkages are important for developing strategies to mitigate the effects of climatic variation. Long-term records of rainfall were not available at the site so that the short-term data was interpreted in the context of the long-term climatic experience of the region. The stratigraphic profile of the aquifer was developed from resistivity methods, to supplement information obtained from well level hydrographs. Field observations and analysis of the data reveal that the beginning of the rainy season is a precarious period because none of the water sources are reliable. Rainfall infiltration recharges the shallow aquifers while lateral water flux from the floodwater-saturated fadama also contributes to water level rises in the deep wells. A study of the water level changes in response to deepening of the wells suggests that the wells are fed by an assortment of water-bearing lenses, separated by layers of low transmissivity. One major finding of this study is that there exists a close association between the wells in this riparian community and the recharge processes within the fadama. Upstream diversion, abstraction or impoundment could therefore undermine the viability of aquifer exploitation by the communities in the riparian zone. Analysis of the interactions among the various sources of water leads to the identification of several potential adaptation strategies for confronting the problem of water scarcity.     

珠江三角洲地区2006年颗粒物污染过程识别与分析

利用Matlab小波分析工具,分析了珠三角(珠江三角洲)地区2006年PM₁₀的突变特征,并对典型区域性颗粒物空气污染过程进行了识别.结合全球资料同化系统(GDAS)气象数据,运用HYSPLIT v4.9模式,以4个典型空气观测站点的数据为基础,分析了高污染过程期间后向气流轨迹的特征和区域ρ(PM₁₀)的变化与输送过程,并对比分析了污染超标日和非超标日的ρ(PM₁₀)与风速、相对湿度、平均温度及地面平均气压等常规气象要素之间的关系.结果表明:影响珠三角地区颗粒物高污染时段输送的气流主要来源于内陆东北气流和沿海气流.本地排放和区域城市间传输是造成珠三角地区颗粒污染过程的主要原因.静风或极小风,以及较高地面平均气压是影响珠三角地区PM₁₀污染的主要气象要素.      

松花江流域省界缓冲区典型断面水质状况分析研究

以松花江流域省界缓冲区典型监测断面数据(2007-2014年)为基础,利用内梅罗污染指数法对流域水质情况进行综合评价,结合年变异系数和相关系数探究水质年际、年内变化趋势.根据监测断面数量和Ⅲ类及以上水比例变化情况分析省界缓冲区水质状况.根据水质特点确定主要超标项目,结合单因子评价法分析主要监测断面的水质类型、年际变化情况,并对监测指标相关性和超标率进行分析.根据上述分析结果,提出针对松花江省界缓冲区的监管对策及建议.     

Measurement of volatile organic chemicals at selected sites in California

Urban air concentrations of 24 selected volatile organic chemicals that may be potentially hazardous to human health and environment were measured during field experiments conducted at two California locations, at Houston, TX, and at Denver, CO. Chemicals measured included chlorofluorocarbons, halomethanes, haloethanes, halopropanes, chloroethylenes and aromatic hydrocarbons. With emphasis on California sites, data from these studies are analysed and interpreted with respect to variabilities in ambient air concentrations, diurnal changes, relation to prevailing meteorology, sources and trends. Except in a few instances, mean concentrations are typically between 0 and 5 ppb. Significant variabilities in atmospheric concentrations associated with intense sources and adverse meteorological conditions are shown to exist. In addition to short-term variability, there is evidence of systematic diurnal and seasonal trends. In some instances it is possible to detect declining trends (e.g. ethylene dibromide and chloroethylenes) resulting from the effectiveness of control strategies.     

施工现场扬尘排放特征分析

为了研究施工扬尘排放特征,在施工现场进行颗粒物质量浓度、数浓度、粒径分布和气象参数的现场监测,分析施工现场颗粒物排放特征。结果显示,施工现场颗粒物浓度高于背景值,测试期间PM10浓度变化较大,并且出现短时间的浓度高值,工地内扬尘既受气象条件的影响又与工地现场的操作活动有关。从粒径方面看,施工现场粒径较大的颗粒物数量比例大于背景环境中的比例。施工现场PM10浓度与风速、温度和湿度呈正相关,工地内车辆运输和施工活动均为重要扬尘源。     

基于遥感的千烟洲人工林蒸散及其组分模拟研究

论文通过改进遥感蒸散模型的关键参数,结合遥感数据和气象观测数据,对2003—2008年江西千烟洲人工林生态系统蒸散及其组分进行模拟,并利用涡度相关技术获取的蒸散实测数据对模型模拟结果进行验证和评价。结果表明:①年均蒸散总量模拟值比实测值偏低2.4%,决定系数与均方根误差分别为0.83和0.61 mm·d^-1。②土壤蒸发、林冠截留蒸发和植被蒸腾分别占总蒸散量的12%、23%和65%。其中,土壤蒸发季节及年际变化相对稳定;林冠截留蒸发季节变化明显且在不同年份差异较大;植被蒸腾季节变化明显,但年际变异较小。③1—3月植被光合作用较弱,植被蒸腾与蒸散比小于30%。随着植被蒸腾的增强,从4月开始植被蒸腾与蒸散比迅速增加,在生长旺季(7月底)可达到约90%。由于该模型所需数据在区域尺度较易获取,从而为开展区域尺度中亚热带人工林生态系统蒸散及其组分模拟提供方法支撑。     

三江源区高寒草地地上生物量遥感反演模型研究

为了发展适用于三江源区高寒草地（包括高寒草甸和高寒草原）地上生物量（aboveground biomass,AGB）模拟的遥感反演模型,基于2006—2014年逐年7—8月三江源区高寒草地70个采样点地上生物量数据与同期MODIS-NDVI和MODIS-EVI数据,通过回归分析方法建立高寒草地地上生物量遥感反演模型,并利用长时间序列MODIS数据对2005—2014年三江源区高寒草地地上生物量的时空格局进行模拟分析.结果表明:基于EVI建立的乘幂模型对三江源区高寒草地地上生物量的拟合效果最好,其判定系数（R2）最大,达到0.654;均方根误差（RMSE_P）最小,仅为27.86 g/m2.根据三江源区70个采样点的地上生物量数据最终确立的估算模型为y=348.769x0.783（R2=0.655,P < 0.001）.估算模型模拟结果显示,2005—2014年三江源区高寒草地地上生物量空间特征基本一致,总体表现为从东南到西北逐渐减少的变化趋势,这与该区域的降水量、气温、海拔和植被类型等因素有关;2005—2014年三江源区高寒草地地上生物量平均值为169.25 t/a,最高值为2010年的178.36 t/a,最低值为2008年的162.80 t/a,年际变化趋势表现为2005—2008年逐年下降、2008—2014年则在波动中逐年有所上升.研究显示,三江源区高寒草地地上生物量遥感反演模型及其确定的模型参数可对该区域草地地上生物量进行有效评估.      

1956-2010年三江源区水土流失状况演变

为研究三江源区水土流失状况变化及其可能成因,基于1956—2010年三江源区水文、气象观测资料以及遥感数据,借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了输沙量的年际变化,并采用双累积曲线、RUSLE（修正的通用土壤流失方程）分析了水土流失状况变化的可能成因.结果表明:① 三江源区输沙量表现为黄河源区>长江源区>澜沧江源区,输沙量最大值均出现在6—8月,最小值均出现在12月—翌年1月.② 各流域输沙量的年际变化较大,并且均以20世纪80年代为最大.2005—2010年黄河源区输沙量较多年平均值减少32.25%,而长江源区和澜沧江源区分别相应增加24.76%和41.86%.黄河源区土壤水蚀量增加明显,长江源区不同河段各有增减,澜沧江源区土壤水蚀强度降低.③ 引起水土流失状况变化的原因主要包括气候变化和生态工程两个方面.即① 降雨量的增加导致降雨侵蚀力和径流量增加,使得土壤水蚀量和河流输沙量有所增加;② 生态工程实施后,土壤中w（有机质）虽有所增加,但仍明显低于1980年的水平.尽管植被覆盖度有所提高,但对水土保持功能起重要作用的根系层恢复却较为缓慢,因此,土壤保持功能基本上未得到提高.      

长江三角洲地区1980~2009年灰霾分布特征及影响因子

选取中国长江三角洲地区38个观测站1980~2009年的地面观测资料和2001~2009年国家环境保护总局公布的空气污染指数(API)数据,统计分析了长江三角洲地区近30年灰霾分布情况.计算了观测站点的消光系数并进行了两次订正,给出了其季均值和年均值分布情况,讨论了3个典型站(南京、杭州和合肥)的能见度与灰霾日数、干消光系数和API之间的关系.结果表明,近30年来,长江三角洲地区的灰霾日数整体呈增长趋势,有71%的站点灰霾日数的年平均增长率大于零.订正后的消光系数冬季高,夏季低.南京、杭州和合肥灰霾日数与干消光系数的增长趋势一致,在霾日,南京、杭州和合肥三地,能见度与API呈负相关,其相关性随相对湿度的增加而增强.     

利用逆向轨迹反演模式估算北京地区甲烷源强

利用连续监测的大气甲烷浓度数据和拉格朗日逆向轨迹反演模式估算出北京甲烷源排放强度，并与根据最新调查数据建立的北京地区甲烷源排放清单进行了比较。排放清单结果表明，北京地区甲烷排放总量为296．4Gg/a，其中，最主要的甲烷排放源为城市垃圾和化石燃料，反映了北京作为一特大城市甲烷排放以人为源为主的特点。利用2000年6月至12月连续观测的有湿合层代表性的北京大气甲烷浓度，通过奇异值分解法（Singular Value Decomposition，SVD）反演出模拟区域的甲烷排放源强度和分布。模式计算与排放清单在甲烷源定性分布上对应较好，定量结果也是合理的。但由于可输入的气象数据有限，轨迹在整个模拟区域内覆盖不均匀，反演出的源块位置有偏差，其中偏差最大的为煤矿的甲烷排放。     

2015年12月北京市空气重污染过程分析及污染源排放变化

2015年12月,北京市及周边地区连续多次出现重污染天气.在此期间,北京市空气重污染应急指挥部两次发布红色预警.为厘清该月重污染的发生过程、生消变化,测算了应急措施下的污染源排放变化情况,并采用数值模拟和地面观测相结合的分析方法,对重污染的形成原因进行初步分析,同时对应急措施的环境效果进行评估.结果表明:1虽然2015年12月北京市主要大气污染物排放量较去年同期有所下降,但排放强度仍然较大,是重污染过程的内因;气象扩散条件不利是重要的外因,地面风速弱,大气稳定度高,相对湿度高,边界层高度降低,源排放及气象因素共同导致了此轮重污染过程.2红色预警应急措施可实现污染物日排放强度减少36%左右,PM_2.5浓度下降11%~21%,预警的应急措施不能扭转重污染的态势,但对于缓解PM_2.5污染加重趋势有明显的效果.3在重污染天气下,污染物仍在大气中累积,应急措施最明显的效果发生在实施后的48~72 h后,因此建议在PM_2.5浓度快速上升前36~48 h实施减排措施,从而对空气质量预报准确性提出更高的要求.     

Ozone concentrations at a remote mountain site and at two regional locations in southwestern Alberta

Ozone concentrations at a remote site in the Rocky Mountains of southwestern Alberta averaged 43.4 ppb over a 2 year period and the Canadian air quality objective of an 80 ppb hourly average was exceeded 1.5% of the time. The diurnal variation in O₃ concentrations was small, 2.9 ppb, indicative of a remote location, above the nocturnal inversion and not greatly influenced by local emissions. During the period when O₃ concentrations were highest, winds were generally from the southwest, suggestive of the long range transport of anthropogenic pollutants from distant sources rather than the generation of O₃ from local emissions. In contrast, hourly O₃ concentrations at two regional air quality monitoring sites showed an average diurnal variation of 14 ppb. Only two hourly averages exceeded 80 ppb during the 2 years, and the mean O₃ concentration was 26 ppb. When these regional sites were within the urban plume from Calgary, the O₃ concentrations were depressed to a mean of 18 ppb. Ozone concentrations in downtown Calgary averaged 13 ppb. Under Alberta climatological and meteorological conditions, hourly O₃ objectives are most likely to be exceeded in remote areas, rather than in cities or in areas under the direct influence of urban emissions.     

中国NO2的季节分布及成因分析

利用OMI卫星观测的对流层NO₂柱浓度和113个重点城市地面ρ(NO₂)监测数据,结合753个监测站降水资料以及中国气象局气象信息综合分析处理系统(MICAPS)气压场数据,研究了中国NO₂的季节分布特征及其影响因素.结果表明:卫星遥感数据和地面监测数据同步显示了中国NO₂浓度冬季峰值、夏季谷值的季节分布特征;月降水量与地面监测的ρ(NO₂)呈负相关,相关系数为0.71.气压场平均结果表明,边界层气压场的特征是影响NO₂浓度季节分布的另一个主要因素.      

Factoring out natural and indirect human effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks

The capacity to partition natural, indirect, and direct human-induced effects on terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is necessary to be able to predict future terrestrial C dynamics and thus their influence on atmospheric CO₂ growth. However, it will take a number of years before we can better attribute quantitative estimates of the contribution of various C processes to the net C balance. In a policy context, factoring out natural and indirect human-induced effects on C sources and sinks from the direct human-induced influences, is seen as a requirement of a C accounting approach that establishes a clear and unambiguous connection between human activities and the assignment of C credits and debits. We present options for factoring out various groups of influences including climate variability, CO₂ and N fertilization, and legacies from forest management. These are: (i) selecting longer accounting or measurement periods to reduce the effects of inter-annual variability; (ii) correction of national inventories for inter-annual variability; (iii) use of activity-based accounting and C response curves; (iv) use of baseline scenarios or benchmarks at the national level; (v) stratification of the landscape into units with distinct average C stocks. Other, more sophisticated modeling approaches (e.g., demographic models in combination with forest inventories; process-based models) are possible options for future C accounting systems but their complexity and data requirements make their present adoption more difficult in an inclusive international C accounting system.     

Effectiveness of short-term aeration in treating swine finishing manure to reduce odour generation potential

The work presented here is to elucidate removals of organic matter, nitrogen and odour generation potential in swine manure treated by short-term aeration. The experiment was composed of a 4 × 3 factorial design, with solids levels ranging from 0.5 to 4.0% and aeration lengths from 0.5 to 4.0 days at an airflow rate of 1.2 L s⁻¹ m⁻³. Manure samplings were conducted on days 5, 10, and 20 during the storage. Solids (TS: total solids; TVS: total volatile solids), 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), and volatile fatty acids (VFAs) for manure samples were measured to characterize the effectiveness of aeration. According to this study, solids (TS and TVS), BOD₅, TKN and VFAs were reduced in varying degrees with respect to the aeration length and storage time. Removal ratios of VFAs from 46.6 to 78.5, 49.4 to 86.9, and 48.8 to 95.6% were achieved under the aeration length of 0.5, 2.0, and 4.0 days, respectively. The variation of odour generation potential in the manure treated by short-term aeration can be linearly evaluated by the concentrations of solids, BOD₅, and/or TKN, but the feasibility could be impaired for manure with high solids content. Meanwhile, foaming was found troublesome during the process of short-term aeration. Four-day aeration is recommended to treat manure with a total solids level of less than 2.0% for odour control because over 70% of VFAs removal efficiencies can be achieved.     

兰州地区大气臭氧时空变化及影响因素研究

本文采用OMI臭氧遥感数据,结合甲醛垂直柱浓度、气象数据以及经济数据,分析了2005~2015年兰州地区臭氧柱浓度时空变化格局,并探索了影响臭氧的新气象因子,总结达到臭氧污染的日照、气压等气象条件,确定影响臭氧柱浓度的主要人为源并确定其限域。结果表明:1)2005~2015年夏季柱浓度值最高,冬季、秋季次之,春季最低;夏季波动幅度最大,其余三季波动幅度较小且平稳。2)11年中,臭氧柱浓度具有较大的波动。2005年至2010年快速增长到最高值331.997 DU。2010年之后,臭氧柱浓度缓慢下降,2014年起有回升趋势。3)OMI遥感数据具有较高的可靠性,并根据AQI的线性关系划分了臭氧柱浓度的污染等级。结果指示了11年大气臭氧空间变化,2005~2009年5年间研究区全区空气质量一直处于良,2010年全区轻度污染,后两年污染逐渐减弱,2013~2015年全区恢复至良。4)根据兰州发展的趋势以及周边城市的关系,划分了兰州经济圈及功能区,并结合臭氧柱浓度空间分布图得出臭氧污染与经济特征的密切关系。5)正弦模型拟合后臭氧柱浓度变化趋势呈不明显的周期性,说明臭氧的人为来源贡献较大。6)创新探索影响臭氧污染的新气象因子(日照、气压等参数),并确定其重要人为源限域。