Weather,salience of climate change and congressional voting

Climate change is a complex long-run phenomenon. The speed and severity with which it is occurring is difficult to observe, complicating the formation of beliefs for individuals. We use Google search intensity data as a proxy for the salience of climate change and examine how search patterns vary with unusual local weather. We find that searches for “climate change” and “global warming” increase with extreme temperatures and unusual lack of snow. Furthermore, we demonstrate that effects of abnormal weather extend beyond search behavior to observable action on environmental issues. We examine the voting records of members of the U.S. Congress from 2004 to 2011 and find that members are more likely to take a pro-environment stance on votes when their home state experiences unusual weather.     

Voluntary information programs and environmental regulation: Evidence from ‘Spare the Air’

This paper assesses whether individuals change their transportation choices in response to ‘Spare the Air’ (STA) advisories, a public voluntary information program in the San Francisco Bay Area that elicits reductions in ozone-producing activities. Since STAs are issued when ozone levels are predicted to exceed a particular threshold, we use a regression discontinuity design to identify the effect of STAs. We also use traffic conditions in Southern California, an area without STAs, to estimate difference-in-differences models. The results suggest that STAs reduce traffic volume and slightly increase the use of public transit, supporting a potential role for voluntary information programs that directly target individuals as a means for improving local air quality.     

Spatiotemporal hierarchical modelling of extreme precipitation in Western Australia using anisotropic Gaussian random fields

We discuss an approach for the statistical modelling of extreme precipitation events in South-West Australia over space and time, using a latent spatiotemporal process where precipitation maxima follow a generalised extreme value distribution. Temporal features are captured by modelling trends on the location and scale parameters. Spatial features are captured using anisotropic Gaussian random fields. Site specific explanatory variables are also incorporated. We fit several models using Bayesian inferential methods to precipitation extremes recorded at 36 weather stations around the Western Australian state capital city of Perth over the period 1907–2009. Model choice is performed using the DIC criterion. The best fitting model shows significant non-stationarity over time, with extreme precipitation events becoming less frequent. Extreme precipitation events are stronger at coastal locations, with the intensity decreasing as we head to the higher and drier areas to the North-East.     

Long-term reactions of plants and macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in floodplain grasslands

Extreme summertime flood events are expected to become more frequent in European rivers due to climate change. In temperate areas, where winter floods are common, extreme floods occurring in summer, a period of high physiological activity, may seriously impact floodplain ecosystems. Here we report on the effects of the 2002 extreme summer flood on flora and fauna of the riverine grasslands of the Middle Elbe (Germany), comparing pre- and post-flooding data collected by identical methods. Plants, mollusks, and carabid beetles differed considerably in their response in terms of abundance and diversity. Plants and mollusks, displaying morphological and behavioral adaptations to flooding, showed higher survival rates than the carabid beetles, the adaptation strategies of which were mainly linked to life history. Our results illustrate the complexity of responses of floodplain organisms to extreme flood events. They demonstrate that the efficiency of resistance and resilience strategies is widely dependent on the mode of adaptation.     

Risk assessment of coastal flood in a site of special scientific interest

The Canary Islands have a long coastline with varying levels of exposure to severe sea conditions. Frequent states of alert and emergency in some parts of their coastline are commonly related to the occurrence of extreme wave conditions. Among the phenomena directly driven by the waves when reaching the shore are the wave run-up and overtopping. Both the study of the flood level, including its variability, and the associated risks are key tools in the planning and management of coastal zones. The aim of this research is to examine the probability of occurrence of run-up events capable of exceeding different topographical levels, for estimating the risk level associated with flooding of the different areas in which the Boca Barranco Beach can be divided, in terms of their nature and use. This beach is located on the island of Gran Canaria, Spain, and is part of the site of scientific interest of Jinámar. A large wave dataset is used as input to a high-resolution numerical model for propagating offshore wave conditions to shallow waters in the study area. Furthermore, the morphology of the study area is reproduced by combining different bathymetric databases. Finally, the probability of occurrence of different levels of run-up and the corresponding levels of consequences are assigned, to assess the flood risk in the different areas of the beach, which are presented in a risk map of flooding in the study area.     

Region-wide retreats from lower elevations of range-restricted birds across the Northern Andes

Local studies show upslope shifts in the distribution of tropical birds in response to warming temperatures. Unanswered is whether these upward shifts occur regionally across many species. We considered a nearly 2000-km length of the Northern Andes, where deforestation, temperature, and extreme weather events have increased during the past decades. Range-restricted bird species are particularly vulnerable to such events and occur in exceptionally high numbers in this region. Using abundant crowd-sourced data from the Cornell Lab of Ornithology database, eBird, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we documented distributions of nearly 200 such species. We examined whether species shifted their elevational ranges over time by comparing observed versus expected occurrences below a low elevational threshold and above a high elevational threshold for 2 periods: before and after 2005. We predicted fewer observations at lower elevations (those below the threshold) and more at upper elevations (those above the threshold) after 2005. We also tested for deforestation effects at lower elevations within each species’ distribution ranges. We compared relative forest loss with the differences between observed and expected occurrences across the elevational range. Species’ retreats from lower elevations were ubiquitous and involved a 23–40% decline in prevalence at the lowest elevations. Increases at higher elevations were not consistent. The retreats occurred across a broad spectrum of species, from predominantly lowland to predominantly highland. Because deforestation showed no relationship with species retreats, we contend that a warming climate is the most parsimonious explanation for such shifts.     

Spatial analysis of traffic and risks in the coastal zone

Management of the coastal zone for the purposes of conservation and sustainability is a well-described concept in the literature. This paper describes the importance of modelling various forms of maritime traffic as an intrinsic element of this process. Effective use of GIS in this context implies extensive data acquisition and cleaning, vessel path simulation, traffic density maps, and incident (spills or accidents) distribution when applicable. Risks can be determined by evaluating detrimental occurrences relative to exposure levels. Effective visualization and quantitative analyses can then be fruitfully applied to various coastal zone management spheres, such as oceans use planning, emergency response planning, and marine protected area delineation.     

Forecast-based action for conservation

Extreme weather events pose an immediate threat to biodiversity, but existing conservation strategies have limitations. Advances in meteorological forecasting and innovation in the humanitarian sector provide a possible solution—forecast-based action (FbA). The growth of ecological forecasting demonstrates the huge potential to anticipate conservation outcomes, but a lack of operational examples suggests a new approach is needed to translate forecasts into action. FbA provides such a framework, formalizing the use of meteorological forecasts to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather. Based on experience from the humanitarian sector, I suggest how FbA could work in conservation, demonstrating key concepts using the theoretical example of heatwave impacts on sea turtle embryo mortality, and address likely challenges in realizing FbA for conservation, including establishing a financing mechanism, allocating funds to actions, and decision-making under uncertainty. FbA will demand changes in conservation research, practice, and governance. Researchers must increase efforts to understand the impacts of extreme weather at more immediate and actionable timescales and should coproduce forecasts of such impacts with practitioners. International conservation funders should establish systems to fund anticipatory actions based on uncertain forecasts.     

Estimating the effect of air pollution on road safety using atmospheric temperature inversions

Does air quality influence road safety? We estimate the effect of increased air pollution on the number of road traffic accidents in the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2014. To address concerns of spurious correlation we exploit atmospheric temperature inversions as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in daily air pollution levels. We find an increase of 0.3–0.6% in the number of vehicles involved in accidents per day for each additional 1 μg/m³ of PM_2.5. The finding suggests that less safe roads may present a large and previously overlooked cost of air pollution. The results are robust to a number of specifications and across various sub-samples.     

喀什市交通主干道沿线大气颗粒物及其重金属含量分布特征

对喀什市具有代表性的5条交通主干道低空下的TSP及TSP中Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn进行了分析。结果表明：喀什市交通主干道TSP在晴天的平均浓度为118μg/m^3、在浮尘天的平均浓度为316μg/m^3。与国标[GB 3095—1996]（300μg/m^3）相比,TSP在晴天未超标,在浮尘天超标;同时研究发现车流量与TSP之间存在一定的正相关关系。喀什市交通主干道TSP中Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn在晴天的平均含量分别为1.11μg/m^3、0.63μg/m^3、0.16μg/m^3,Zn未检出;在浮尘天的平均含量为2.74μg/m^3、1.03μg/m^3、2.36μg/m^3、7.10μg/m^3,TSP中Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn的浓度随距交通主干道距离的增加有下降的趋势。     

Experimental floods cause ecosystem regime shift in a regulated river.

Reservoirs have altered the flow regime of most rivers on the globe. To simulate the natural flow regime, experimental floods are being implemented on regulated rivers throughout the world to improve their ecological integrity. As a large-scale disturbance, the long-term sequential use of floods provides an excellent empirical approach to examine ecosystem regime shifts in rivers. This study evaluated the long-term effects of floods (15 floods over eight years) on a regulated river. We hypothesized that sequential floods over time would cause a regime shift in the ecosystem. The floods resulted in little change in the physicochemistry of the river, although particulate organic carbon and particulate phosphorus were lower after the floods. The floods eliminated moss cover on bed sediments within the first year of flooding and maintained low periphyton biomass and benthic organic matter after the third year of flooding. Organic matter in transport was reduced after the third year of flooding, although peaks were still observed during rain events due to tributary inputs and side slopes. The floods reduced macroinvertebrate richness and biomass after the first year of floods, but density was not reduced until the third year. The individual mass of invertebrates decreased by about one-half after the floods. Specific taxa displayed either a loss in abundance, or an increase in abundance, or an increase followed by a loss after the third year. The first three flood years were periods of nonequilibrium with coefficients of variation in all measured parameters increasing two to five times from those before the floods. Coefficients of variation decreased after the third year, although they were still higher than before the floods. Analysis of concordance using Kendall's W confirmed the temporal changes observed in macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. An assessment of individual flood effects showed that later floods had approximately 30% less effect on macroinvertebrates than early floods of similar magnitude, suggesting that the new assemblage structure is more resilient to flood disturbance. We conclude that the floods caused an ecosystem regime shift that took three years to unfold. Additional long-term changes or shifts are expected as new taxa colonize the river from other sources.     

Effects of reduced water quality on coral reefs in and out of no‐take marine reserves

Near‐shore marine environments are increasingly subjected to reduced water quality, and their ability to withstand it is critical to their persistence. The potential role marine reserves may play in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality has received little attention. We investigated the spatial and temporal variability in live coral and macro‐algal cover and water quality during moderate and major flooding events of the Fitzroy River within the Keppel Bay region of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park from 2007 to 2013. We used 7 years of remote sensing data on water quality and data from long‐term monitoring of coral reefs to quantify exposure of coral reefs to flood plumes. We used a distance linear model to partition the contribution of abiotic and biotic factors, including zoning, as drivers of the observed changes in coral and macro‐algae cover. Moderate flood plumes from 2007 to 2009 did not affect coral cover on reefs in the Keppel Islands, suggesting the reef has intrinsic resistance against short‐term exposure to reduced water quality. However, from 2009 to 2013, live coral cover declined by ～50% following several weeks of exposure to turbid, low salinity water from major flood plume events in 2011 and subsequent moderate events in 2012 and 2013. Although the flooding events in 2012 and 2013 were smaller than the flooding events between 2007 to 2009, the ability of the reefs to withstand these moderate floods was lost, as evidenced by a ～20% decline in coral cover between 2011 to 2013. Although zoning (no‐take reserve or fished) was identified a significant driver of coral cover, we recorded consistently lower coral cover on reserve reefs than on fished reefs throughout the study period and significantly lower cover in 2011. Our findings suggest that even reefs with an inherent resistance to reduced water quality are not able to withstand repeated disturbance events. The limitations of reserves in mitigating the effects of reduced water quality on near‐shore coral reefs underscores the importance of integrated management approaches that combine effective land‐based management with networks of no‐take reserves.     

Phenology of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems following extreme events: net and differential responses

Ecosystem responses to key climate drivers are reflected in phenological dynamics such as the timing and degree of "green-up" that integrate responses over spatial scales from individual plants to ecosystems. This integration is clearest in ecosystems dominated by a single species or life form, such as seasonally dynamic grasslands or more temporally constant evergreen forests. Yet many ecosystems have substantial contribution of cover from both herbaceous and woody evergreen plants. Responses of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems to climate are of increasing concern due to their extensive nature, the potential for such systems to yield more complex responses than those dominated by a single life form, and projections that extreme climate and weather events will increase in frequency and intensity with global warming. We present responses of a mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystem type to an extreme event: regional-scale pi?on pine mortality following an extended drought and the subsequent herbaceous green-up following the first wet period after the drought. This example highlights how reductions in greenness of the slower, more stable evergreen woody component can rapidly be offset by increases associated with resources made available to the relatively more responsive herbaceous component. We hypothesize that such two-phase phenological responses to extreme events are characteristic of many mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems.     

Stock market and deterrence effect: A mid-run analysis of major environmental and non-environmental accidents

We analyze the stock market reaction to 161 major environmental and non-environmental accidents, reported on the front page of the New York Times for half a century. To determine if the market induces a real deterrence effect, we extend the event windows up to one year. On average, the market reacts negatively and enduringly to the announcement of an accident. However, this average effect is largely driven by the airline industry and by government interventions. The estimated average compounded abnormal return following environmental accidents does not differ from zero after one year. This does not exclude, in severe events affecting large firms, huge losses in equity value, but the significant negative cumulative abnormal returns estimated immediately after an environmental accident in previous studies do not persist. Our results suggest that in a market driven by institutional investors, the deterrence effect is likely to be weak.     

The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach

In this paper we use a repeat-sales model to analyse the price path of properties affected by flooding in England between 1995 and 2014. Our dataset contains information on 4.8 million houses with at least one repeat-sale. This database is merged with high-definition GIS data delineating the spatial extent of all recorded flood incidents in England covering a total area of 2,654 km². Our results show that immediately after a flood event the price of property in a postcode entirely inundated by inland flooding is on average 24.9% lower than non-flooded property, whereas for property in a postcode entirely inundated by coastal flooding the price reduction is 21.1%. Nonetheless, we find that this discount is short-lived and the discount is no longer statistically significant for properties affected by inland flooding after 5 years, which falls to just 4 years for properties affected by coastal flooding. For lower-priced properties however, the post-flood price discount can be observed up to 6–7 years for both inland and coastal flooding. The magnitude of the impact also depends on the characteristics of the properties, the characteristics of the flood and the existence of flood protection assets.     

Coastal flood management in rural planning unit through land-use planning: Kaikhali, West Bengal, India

The Indian subcontinent is highly prone to the detrimental impacts of hazards viz. cyclones, floods and storm surges. Of late, these events have become extreme in nature and intensity. While occurrence and severity of the events is being linked to the phenomenon of climate change, their devastating potentialities are also getting triggered due to lack of resilience and coping capacity of the human community. That in turn depends on distribution of activities over the land i.e. land use pattern, affecting the socio -economic conditions directly. A coastal village often lacks infrastructural support, administrative attention and planning standards compared to a coastal city, thereby making it more vulnerable to disasters like flood. In a coastal city it is easy to govern and manage livelihood as land use depends highly on anthropogenic decisions. While in a coastal village, activities would highly depend on its natural characteristics viz. coastal geomorphology, soil, vegetation cover i.e. governance of livelihood by the eco-system. Hence, managing disaster through in-situ pro-active or developmental measures in a rural planning unit though imperative, is a challenging task. This paper focuses on spatial planning techniques for Restoration of ecological buffers and livelihood enhancement that would sustainably combat the impact of flood at village level in a coastal area. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques have been used extensively in this study as application tools.     

Long‐distance flights and high‐risk breeding by nomadic waterbirds on desert salt lakes

Understanding and conserving mobile species presents complex challenges, especially for animals in stochastic or changing environments. Nomadic waterbirds must locate temporary water in arid biomes where rainfall is highly unpredictable in space and time. To achieve this they need to travel over vast spatial scales and time arrival to exploit pulses in food resources. How they achieve this is an enduring mystery.  We investigated these challenges in the colonial‐nesting Banded Stilt (Cladorhynchus leucocephalus), a nomadic shorebird of conservation concern. Hitherto, Banded Stilts were hypothesized to have only 1–2 chances to breed during their long lifetime, when flooding rain fills desert salt lakes, triggering mass‐hatching of brine shrimp. Over 6 years, we satellite tagged 57 individuals, conducted 21 aerial surveys to detect nesting colonies on 14 Australian desert salt lakes, and analyzed 3 decades of Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to quantify salt‐lake flood frequency and extent. Within days of distant inland rainfall, Banded Stilts flew 1,000–2,000 km to reach flooded salt lakes. On arrival, females laid over half their body weight in eggs. We detected nesting episodes across the species’ range at 7 times the frequency reported during the previous 80 years. Nesting colonies of thousands formed following minor floods, yet most were subsequently abandoned when the water rapidly evaporated prior to egg hatching. Satellite imagery revealed twice as many flood events sufficient for breeding‐colony initiation as recorded colonies, suggesting that nesting at remote sites has been underdetected. Individuals took risk on uncertain breeding opportunities by responding to frequent minor flood events between infrequent extensive flooding, exemplifying the extreme adaptability and trade‐offs of species exploiting unstable environments. The conservation challenges of nest predation by overabundant native gulls and anthropogenic modifications to salt lakes filling frequencies require investigation, as do the physiological and navigational mechanisms that enable such extreme strategies.     

Market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China: The impact of consumers' response through driving patterns

We investigate the market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China relative to an alternative policy instrument that rations the number of new automobile sales through auctioned quotas. Unlike those of previous studies, our modeling approach incorporates both household car purchase and utilization decisions, the latter of which have been ignored in previous studies on China's fuel tax. Ignoring this margin of choice will underestimate the fuel tax's ability to mitigate externalities. Using detailed household-level panel data and a fixed effects econometric specification, we estimate the fuel price elasticity of vehicle miles traveled is −0.59 on average. The results of the counterfactual analysis suggest that a 51% increase in tax-inclusive gasoline prices will reduce car sales by 24.9% but increase social welfare to a degree that depends on vehicles' lifetime. We find that compared to auctioned quotas, the fuel tax results in greater car sales but higher social welfare.     

Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?

Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamfiow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 > 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.