Providing the Spark: Impact of financial incentives on battery electric vehicle adoption

To overcome adoption barriers and promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an energy efficient consumer transportation option, a number of states offer subsidies to consumers for BEVs. We use a national data set of vehicle registrations and state-level financial incentives to assess the impact of vehicle purchase subsidies on adoption using both difference-in-differences and synthetic controls methods. We find that incentives offered as direct purchase rebates generate increased levels of new BEV registrations at a rate of approximately 8 percent per thousand dollars of incentive offered. Between 2011 and 2015, vehicle rebate incentives are associated with an increase in overall BEV registrations of approximately 11 percent. Our findings indicate incentives offered as state income tax credits do not have a statistically significant effect on BEV adoptions, though we caution this may be a result of limited temporal variation in BEV incentives across our sample. Responses to rebate incentives do not differ significantly by the make of the vehicle purchased (i.e., Tesla and non-Tesla vehicles). We combine our results with recent assessments of marginal environmental costs of electric vehicle charging and measure net welfare effects of BEV subsidy programs. Our analysis indicates these programs are not welfare-improving if only considering benefits associated with avoided emissions. Additional benefits associated with long-term market growth, production cost savings, network externalities, or accelerated innovation could substantially impact the net welfare outcomes.     

How does the presence of HOV lanes affect plug-in electric vehicle adoption in California? A generalized propensity score approach

Policymakers have sought to spur consumer adoption of advanced clean vehicles by granting them single-occupancy access to high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes. We offer the first evaluation of these policies that accommodates geographic variability in the magnitude of this policy's treatment effect. Focusing on the outcome of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption in California, we employ a generalized propensity score approach that allows for continuous, rather than binary, treatment effects. We estimate a state-wide dose-response curve to show that access to 6, 20, and 100 miles of nearby HOV lanes leads to 1, 3, and 10 additional PEV registrations in a census tract. The lower end of our 95% confidence interval implies that at least one quarter of California PEV registrations during 2010–2013 were a result of the HOV lane policy. We identify geographically-specific marginal policy effects that are smaller in Los Angeles, but relatively larger in San Diego and Sacramento.     

Giving green to get green? Incentives and consumer adoption of hybrid vehicle technology

Federal, state, and local governments use a variety of incentives to induce consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles. We study the relative efficacy of state sales tax waivers, income tax credits, and non-tax incentives and find that the type of tax incentive offered is as important as the generosity of the incentive. Conditional on value, sales tax waivers are associated with more than a ten-fold increase in hybrid sales relative to income tax credits. In addition, we examine how adoption varies with fuel prices. Rising gasoline prices are associated with greater hybrid vehicle sales, but this effect operates almost entirely through high fuel-economy vehicles. By comparing consumer response to sales tax waivers and estimated future fuel savings, we estimate an implicit discount rate of 14.6% on future fuel savings.     

Life cycle analysis and choice of natural gas-based automotive alternative fuels in Chongqing Municipality, China

Road transport produces significant amounts of emissions by using crude oil as the primary energy source. A reduction of emissions can be achieved by implementing alternative fuel chains. The objective of this study is to carry out an economic, environmental and energy (EEE) life cycle study on natural gas-based automotive fuels with conventional gasoline in an abundant region of China. A set of indices of four fuels/vehicle systems on the basis of life cycle are assessed in terms of impact of EEE, in which natural gas produces compressed natural gas (CNG), methanol, dimethylether (DME) and Fischer Tropsch diesel (FTD). The study included fuel production, vehicle production, vehicle operation, infrastructure and vehicle end of life as a system for each fuel/vehicle system. A generic gasoline fueled car is used as a baseline. Data have been reviewed and modified based on the best knowledge available to Chongqing local sources. Results indicated that when we could not change electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles into commercial vehicles on a large scale, direct use of CNG in a dedicated or bi-fuel vehicle is an economical choice for the region which is most energy efficient and more environmental friendly. The study can be used to support decisions on how natural gas resources can best be utilized as a fuel/energy resource for automobiles, and what issues need to be resolved in Chongqing. The models and approaches for this study can be applied to other regions of China as long as all the assumptions are well defined and modified to find a substitute automotive energy source and establish an energy policy in a specific region.     

Are policy incentives for solar power effective? Evidence from residential installations in the Northeast

State incentives for solar power have grown significantly in the past several years. This paper examines the effectiveness of policy incentives to increase residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. We use county-level panel data and control for demographic characteristics, solar resources, and pro-environmental preferences. Results show that among financial incentives, rebates have the most impact with an additional $1 per watt rebate increasing annual PV capacity additions by close to 50%. Factors that affect financial returns to solar PV such as electricity price and solar insolation are also found to be significant. Results also point to a significant positive relationship between hybrid vehicle sales and residential PV capacity growth, indicating the importance of pro-environmental preferences as a predictor of solar PV demand. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that the cost of carbon mitigation through rebates is around $184 per ton of CO₂.     

Can pollution tax rebates protect low-wage earners?

Pollution taxes are believed to burden low-income households that spend a greater than average share of income on pollution-intensive goods. Some proposals offset that effect by returning revenue to low-income workers via reduced labor tax. We build analytical general equilibrium models with both high-skilled and low-skilled labor, and we solve for the change in real net wage of each group. Decomposition shows the separate effects of the tax rebate, higher product prices, and the changes in relative wage rates. We also include numerical examples. Even though the pollution tax injures both types of labor, in most cases we find that returning all of the revenue to low-skilled workers is still not enough to offset higher product prices. Changes in relative wage rates may further hurt low-skilled labor. Protecting low-income workers is possible in this model only if they are defined as those below a relatively low wage threshold, but we discuss many possible elaborations of this model that could affect those results.     

Fuel Economy and Motor Vehicle Emissions

The conventional wisdom is that there is no relationship between fuel economy and motor vehicle emissions, at least for new cars. The requirement that all vehicles meet a common emission standard in terms of grams per mile effectively breaks whatever link there might have been between fuel economy and emissions in uncontrolled (preregulatory) vehicles. As cars age, however, the emission control equipment tends to break down, providing reason to think that the conventional wisdom might do the same. This paper reports on an empirical examination of this proposition, by linking EPA fuel economy certification data to a large database of motor vehicle emission measurements collected by remote sensing. It is found that better fuel economy is strongly associated with lower emissions of CO and HC and that the effect gets stronger as vehicles age.     

Lose some, save some: Obesity, automobile demand, and gasoline consumption

This paper examines the unexplored link between the prevalence of overweight and obesity and vehicle demand in the United States. Exploring annual sales data of new passenger vehicles at the model level in 48 U.S. counties from 1999 to 2005, we find that new vehicles demanded by consumers are less fuel-efficient on average as a larger share of people become overweight or obese. The OLS results show that a 10 percentage point increase in obesity and overweight reduces the average MPG of new vehicles demanded by 1.4 percent, an effect requiring a 12 cent increase in gasoline prices to counteract. The 2SLS results after controlling for possible endogeneity in overweight and obesity prevalence put those two numbers at 5 percent and 54 cent, respectively. These findings, robust to a variety of specifications, suggest that policies to reduce overweight and obesity can have additional benefits for energy security and the environment.     

A combined ecosystem and value chain modeling approach for evaluating societal cost and benefit of fishing

We describe a combined ecological and economic approach aimed at giving more equal emphasis to both disciplines, while being integrated so that design, analysis, data entry and storage, and result capabilities are developed with emphasis on deriving a user-friendly, easily accessible tool. We have thus developed the approach as an integrated module of the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim scientific software; the world's most widely applied ecological modeling tool. We link the trophic ecosystem model to a value-chain approach where we explicitly and in considerable detail keep track of the flow (amounts, revenue, and costs) of fish products from sea through to the end consumer. We also describe the social aspects of the fish production and trade, by evaluating employment and income diagnostics. This is done with emphasis on distribution income while accounting for social aspects of the fishing sector. From a management perspective, one of the interesting aspects of the approach we introduce here, is that it opens for direct evaluation of what impact management interventions, e.g., quota settings, effort regulation, or area closures, may have on the ecosystem, the economy and the social setting, as well as on food availability for the consumer.     

PM2.5: global progress in controlling the motor vehicle contribution

It is well established that ambient particles in the size range of 2.5 microns or less case a wide variety of adverse health effects. According to a recent study from the World Health Organization, in 2010 these effects resulted in approximately 3.2million premature deaths with vehicles being one of the significant contributors. Diesel vehicle particulate emissions which are virtually all smaller than 2.5 microns raise additional special concerns due to their carcinogenicity and high ratio of black carbon （BC） to organic carbon; black carbon has recently been found to be the second most important contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. Other pollutants emitted by diesels and other vehicles such as the oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds also contribute to ambient particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns in size （PM2.5） after undergoing secondary transformations in the atrno- sphere. Technologies have dramatically reduce vehicle been developed that can emissions when clean, low sulfur fuels are available and these technologies are being phased in throughout the industrialized world resulting in a global decrease in particulate matter （PM） and BC emissions from vehicles. However the vehicle population is growing rapidly in the developing world, leading to increases in emissions in many countries. Unless these rapidly industrializing countries move to state of the art vehicles and clean fuels, global PM, BC and NOx emissions from road vehicles will start to turn up over the next 10 to 15 years.     

Prospective evaluation of designs for analysis of variance without knowledge of effect sizes

Estimation of design power requires knowledge of treatment effect size and error variance, which are often unavailable for ecological studies. In the absence of prior information on these parameters, investigators can compare an alternative to a reference design for the same treatment(s) in terms of its precision at equal sensitivity. This measure of relative performance calculates the fractional error variance allowed of the alternative for it to just match the power of the reference. Although first suggested as a design tool in the 1950s, it has received little analysis and no uptake by environmental scientists or ecologists. We calibrate relative performance against the better known criterion of relative efficiency, in order to reveal its unique advantage in controlling sensitivity when considering the precision of estimates. The two measures differ strongly for designs with low replication. For any given design, relative performance at least doubles with each doubling of effective sample size. We show that relative performance is robustly approximated by the ratio of reference to alternative $\alpha $ quantiles of the $F$ distribution, multiplied by the ratio of alternative to reference effective sample sizes. The proxy is easy to calculate, and consistent with exact measures. Approximate or exact measurement of relative performance serves a useful purpose in enumerating trade-offs between error variance and error degrees of freedom when considering whether to block random variation or to sample from a more or less restricted domain.     

Impacts of methanol fuel on vehicular emissions: A review

● Methanol effectively reduces CO, HC, CO₂, PM, and PN emissions of gasoline vehicles. ● Elemental composition of methanol directly affects the reduction of emissions. ● Several physicochemical properties of methanol help reduce vehicle emissions. The transport sector is a significant energy consumer and a major contributor to urban air pollution. At present, the substitution of cleaner fuel is one feasible way to deal with the growing energy demand and environmental pollution. Methanol has been recognized as a good alternative to gasoline due to its good combustion performance. In the past decades, many studies have investigated exhaust emissions using methanol-gasoline blends. However, the conclusions derived from different studies vary significantly, and the explanations for the effects of methanol blending on exhaust emissions are also inconsistent. This review summarizes the characteristics of CO, HC, NO_x, CO₂, and particulate emissions from methanol-gasoline blended fuels and pure methanol fuel. CO, HC, CO₂, particle mass (PM), and particle number (PN) emissions decrease when methanol-blended fuel is used in place of gasoline fuel. NO_x emission either decreases or increases depending on the test conditions, i.e., methanol content. Furthermore, this review synthesizes the mechanisms by which methanol-blended fuel influences pollutant emissions. This review provides insight into the pollutant emissions from methanol-blended fuel, which will aid policymakers in making energy strategy decisions that take urban air pollution, climate change, and energy security into account.     

Build it,but will they come? Evidence from consumer choice between gasoline and sugarcane ethanol

How consumers might switch from gasoline and diesel to alternative energy sources is not known, since the availability of alternatives is currently very limited. To bridge this gap, we exploit exogenous variation in ethanol prices at Brazil's pumps and uncover substantial consumer heterogeneity in the choice between long-established gasoline and an alternative that is similarly available and usable: sugarcane ethanol. We observe roughly 20% of flexible-fuel motorists choosing gasoline when gasoline is priced 20% above ethanol in energy-adjusted terms ($/mile) and, similarly, 20% of motorists choosing ethanol when ethanol is priced 20% above gasoline. We use transaction-level data to explore “non-price” characteristics which differentiate the two goods in the minds of different groups of consumers. Our findings suggest—and a counterfactual illustrates—that switching away from gasoline en masse, should this be desired, would require considerable price discounts to boost voluntary adoption, in the US and elsewhere.     

Fuel prices and new vehicle fuel economy—Comparing the United States and Western Europe

Several recent papers have documented an effect of fuel prices on new vehicle fuel economy in the United States. This paper estimates the effect of fuel prices on average new vehicle fuel economy for the eight largest European markets. The analysis spans the years 2002–2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to control for policies, consumer preferences, and other potentially confounding factors. We find fuel prices to have a statistically significant effect on average new vehicle fuel economy in Europe. The effect estimated for Europe is much smaller than comparable estimates for the United States.     

A Landholder‐Based Approach to the Design of Private‐Land Conservation Programs

Abstract: Many ecosystems exist primarily, or solely, on privately owned (freehold) or managed (leasehold) land. In rural and semirural areas, local and regional government agencies are commonly responsible for encouraging landholders to conserve native vegetation and species on these private properties. Yet these agencies often lack the capacity to design and implement conservation programs tailored to rural and semirural landholdings and instead offer one program to all landholders. Landholders may elect not to participate because the program is irrelevant to their property or personal needs; consequently, vegetation–retention objectives may not be achieved. We differentiated landholders in Queensland, Australia, according to whether they derived income from the land (production landholders) or not (nonproduction landholders). We compared these two groups to identify similarities and differences that may inform the use of policy instruments (e.g., voluntary, economic, and regulatory) in conservation program design. We interviewed 45 landholders participating in three different conservation agreement programs (price‐based rate [property tax] rebate; market‐based tender; and voluntary, permanent covenant). Production landholders were more likely to participate in short‐term programs that offered large financial incentives that applied to <25% of their property. Nonproduction landholders were more likely to participate in long‐term programs that were voluntary or offered small financial incentives that applied to >75% of their property. These results may be explained by significant differences in the personal circumstances of production and nonproduction landholders (income, education, health) and differences in their norms (beliefs about how an individual is expected to act) and attitudes. Knowledge of these differences may allow for development of conservation programs that better meet the needs of landholders and thus increase participation in conservation programs and retention of native vegetation.     

Impact of gasoline engine deposits on light duty vehicle emissions: in-use case study in Beijing, China

Tailpipe emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles usually deteriorate over time. The accumulation of engine deposits due to inadequate gasoline detergency is considered to be one of the major causes of such emission deterioration. Six in-use light-duty gasoline vehicles in Beijing were tested to investigate the impact of engine deposits on emissions of hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO _x ). Emissions under cold start and hot running test conditions from the six light duty vehicles were measured before and after engine deposits were removed. Results show that although individual vehicles reacted differently for each of the pollutants, elimination of engine deposits on average reduced HC emissions under hot running conditions by 29.4%, CO emissions under cold start conditions by 23.0% and CO emissions under hot running conditions by 35.5% (t < 0.05 in all cases). No pollutant emissions increased with statistical significance (t < 0.05) after the removal of engine deposits. Variations of emission changes upon removal of engine deposits were observed. Such variations are in line with previous studies, implying that the impact patterns of engine deposits on vehicle emissions may be subject to many influencing factors that are not fully understood and difficult to control under all conditions. A statistical view of the impact of engine deposits on vehicle emissions may be appropriate for evaluation of emissions reductions across a city or a country. It is necessary to maintain sufficient and effective gasoline fuel detergency in practice to keep the engines clean and in turn reduce vehicle emissions.     

Economic Development and the Conservation of Large Carnivores

Conserving large carnivores in North America hinges on protecting vast wildlands, a strategy often assumed to carry significant economic costs in terms of jobs and income foregone. Using case studies, we tested whether there is enough evidence to support the assertion that the protection of wildlands is detrimental to economic development in the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains and the Rocky Mountains of southern British Columbia and Alberta. We analyzed employment and income trends in northwestern Montana (U.S.A.) for counties with a high degree of wildland protection versus counties with high levels of resource extraction and little wildland protection. Employment and personal income levels in "wilderness" counties grew faster than in "resource-extraction" counties. Wilderness counties also showed higher degrees of economic diversification and lower unemployment rates. No direct cause-and-effect relationship was established between wildlands protection and economic development, but to the assertion that protecting wildland habitat for large carnivores is detrimental to a region's economy, enough counterevidence is presented to suggest an alternative hypothesis: the protection of wilderness habitat that sustains wild carnivores such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) and wolves ( Canis lupus ) does not have a detrimental effect on local or regional economies. Evidence presented suggests that economic growth is stimulated by environmental amenities. Further, case studies in southern British Columbia and Alberta in Canada and the Greater Yellowstone region, in the U.S., where environmental protection has been explicitly recognized as an economic development strategy, suggest that environmental protection and economic development are complementary goals. In some areas, however, "amenity-based" economic growth is rapidly leading to urban sprawl and subsequent loss of wildlife habitat, and there is a need for growth management.     

Randomly selected order statistics in ranked set sampling: A less expensive comparable alternative to simple random sampling

Rank-based sampling designs are powerful alternatives to simple random sampling (SRS) and often provide large improvements in the precision of estimators. In many environmental, ecological, agricultural, industrial and/or medical applications the interest lies in sampling designs that are cheaper than SRS and provide comparable estimates. In this paper, we propose a new variation of ranked set sampling (RSS) for estimating the population mean based on the random selection technique to measure a smaller number of observations than RSS design. We study the properties of the population mean estimator using the proposed design and provide conditions under which the mean estimator performs better than SRS and some existing rank-based sampling designs. Theoretical results are augmented with some numerical studies and a real-life example, where we also study the performance of our proposed design under perfect and imperfect ranking situations.     

Income inequality and willingness to pay for environmental public goods

We study how the distribution of income among members of society, and income inequality in particular, affects social willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental public goods. We find that social WTP for environmental goods decreases (increases) with income inequality if and only if environmental goods and manufactured goods are substitutes (complements). We derive adjustment factors for benefit transfer to control for differences in income distributions between a study site and a policy site. For illustration, we quantify how social WTP for environmental public goods depends on the respective income distributions for empirical case studies in Sweden and the World at large. We find that the adjustment for income inequality can be substantial.     

Estimates from a consumer demand system: implications for the incidence of environmental taxes

Most studies suggest that environmental taxes are regressive, making them less attractive policy options. We consider the distributional effects of a gasoline tax increase using four incidence measures and under three scenarios for gas tax revenue use. To incorporate behavioral responses we use Consumer Expenditure Survey data to estimate a consumer demand system that includes gasoline, other goods, and leisure. Our estimates confirm that when revenues are not recycled, a gasoline tax is regressive. Use of incidence measures that ignore demand responses, however, will substantially overstate this regressivity. In contrast, the differences between the equivalent variation and easier-to-implement consumer surplus measures are relatively small. In addition, our results suggest that using the additional gas tax revenue to fund labor tax cuts makes the policy substantially less regressive while using the revenue to fund lump-sum transfers actually makes it progressive.