Estimating demographic parameters for capture–recapture data in the presence of multiple mark types

In mark-recapture studies, various techniques can be used to uniquely identify individual animals, such as ringing, tagging or photo-identification using natural markings. In some long-term studies more than one type of marking procedure may be implemented during the study period. In these circumstances, ignoring the different mark types can produce biased survival estimates since the assumption that the different mark types are equally catchable (homogeneous capture probability across mark types) may be incorrect. We implement an integrated approach where we simultaneously analyse data obtained using three different marking techniques, assuming that animals can be cross-classified across the different mark types. We discriminate between competing models using the AIC statistic. This technique also allows us to estimate both relative mark-loss probabilities and relative recapture efficiency rates for the different marking methods. We initially perform a simulation study to explore the different biases that can be introduced if we assume a homogeneous recapture probability over mark type, before applying the method to a real dataset. We make use of data obtained from an intensive long-term observational study of UK female grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) at a single breeding colony, where three different methods are used to identify individuals within a single study: branding, tagging and photo-identification based on seal coat pattern or pelage.     

Are policy incentives for solar power effective? Evidence from residential installations in the Northeast

State incentives for solar power have grown significantly in the past several years. This paper examines the effectiveness of policy incentives to increase residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. We use county-level panel data and control for demographic characteristics, solar resources, and pro-environmental preferences. Results show that among financial incentives, rebates have the most impact with an additional $1 per watt rebate increasing annual PV capacity additions by close to 50%. Factors that affect financial returns to solar PV such as electricity price and solar insolation are also found to be significant. Results also point to a significant positive relationship between hybrid vehicle sales and residential PV capacity growth, indicating the importance of pro-environmental preferences as a predictor of solar PV demand. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that the cost of carbon mitigation through rebates is around $184 per ton of CO₂.     

Does environmental regulation affect labor demand in China? Evidence from the textile printing and dyeing industry

Developing countries, including China, are just beginning to figure out how to balance economic development with the desire to address numerous severe environmental problems. In this paper, we use two enterprise-level data sets – China's Environmental Statistics Database and China's Industrial Enterprise Database – to estimate the impact of a more stringent wastewater discharge standard imposed on all the textile printing and dyeing enterprises in the Lake Tai, Jiangsu region, on labor demand. We find that enterprises which face this new more stringent standard decreased labor demand by approximately 7%. Furthermore, we find that the new standard had heterogeneous impacts on different types of enterprises. For example, our results indicate that the more stringent discharge standard reduced employment in domestically-owned private enterprises by 7.4%, but had little or no impact on state-owned or foreign-owned enterprises.     

Kelvin–Helmholtz instability in the presence of variable viscosity for mudflow resuspension in estuaries

The temporal stability of a parallel shear flow of miscible fluid layers of different density and viscosity is investigated through a linear stability analysis and direct numerical simulations. The geometry and rheology of this Newtonian fluid mixing can be viewed as a simplified model of the behavior of mudflow at the bottom of estuaries for suspension studies. In this study, focus is on the stability and transition to turbulence of an initially laminar configuration. A parametric analysis is performed by varying the values of three control parameters, namely the viscosity ratio, the Richardson and Reynolds numbers, in the case of initially identical thickness of the velocity, density and viscosity profiles. The range of parameters has been chosen so as to mimic a wide variety of real configurations. This study shows that the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability is controlled by the local Reynolds and Richardson numbers of the inflection point. In addition, at moderate Reynolds number, viscosity stratification has a strong influence on the onset of instability, the latter being enhanced at high viscosity ratio, while at high Reynolds number, the influence is less pronounced. In all cases, we show that the thickness of the mixing layer (and thus resuspension) is increased by high viscosity stratification, in particular during the non-linear development of the instability and especially pairing processes. This study suggests that mud viscosity has to be taken into account for resuspension parameterizations because of its impact on the inflection point Reynolds number and the viscosity ratio, which are key parameters for shear instabilities.     

Who counts in evaluating the effects of air pollution policies on households? Non-market valuation in the presence of dependencies

Individuals who are likely to realize the largest benefits from improvements in air quality often depend on other members of their households to make time or monetary contributions to their care. The presence of these dependency relationships among household members poses challenges for benefit estimation since it is unlikely that the conditions necessary for recovering the underlying individual preferences from household choices are satisfied in this setting. We propose a conceptual framework that highlights the role of these dependencies in the choice models used to estimate the willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. We design a complementary stated preference survey that describes hypothetical dependency relationships for household members of different ages to test the implications of our conceptual model. Respondents' stated choices take into account the proposed care-giving responsibilities for young children and teenagers but not for older adults.     

Can decentralized planning really achieve first-best in the presence of environmental spillovers?

It is generally accepted that decentralized policy choice in the presence of interjurisdictional spillovers is inefficient. Strikingly, Ogawa and Wildasin (2009) find that in a model with heterogenous jurisdictions, interjurisdictional capital flows, and interjurisdictional environmental damage spillovers, decentralized planning outcomes are equivalent to that under a centralized planner. We first show the critical importance of two key assumptions (no retirement of capital, fixed environmental damages per unit of capital) in obtaining this result. Second, we consider a more general model allowing for capital retirement and abatement activities and show that the outcome of a decentralized market generally differs from the solution of a centralized planner?s social welfare-maximizing problem.     

Does the promotion pressure on local officials matter for regional carbon emissions? Evidence based on provincial-level leaders in China

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - This paper constructs data from 30 provinces in mainland China from 1997 to 2016 and mainly adopts panel data fixed effects models to investigate how the...     

Do we need to examine the quantitative data obtained from toxicity studies for both normality and homogeneity of variance?

Most of the statistical techniques used to evaluate the data obtained from toxicity studies are based on the assumption that the data show a normal distribution and homogeneity of variance. Literature review on toxicity studies on laboratory animals reveals that in most of the cases homogeneity of variance alone is examined for the data obtained from these studies. But the data that show homogeneity of variance need not always show a normal distribution. In fact, most of the data derived from toxicity studies, including hematological and biochemical parameters show a non-normal distribution. On examining normality of data obtained from various toxicity studies using different normality tests, we observed that Shapiro-Wilk test is more appropriate than Kolmogorov-Smimov test, Lilliefors test, the normal probability paper analysis and Chi square test. But there are situations, especially in the long-term toxicity studies, where normality is not shown by one or more than one of the dosage groups. In this situation, we propose that the data maybe analyzed using Dunnett multiple comparison test after excluding the data of the groups that do not show normality However, the biological relevance of the excluded data has to be carefully scrutinized. We also observed that the tendency of the data to show a normal distribution seems to be related to the age of the animals. Present paper describes various tests commonly used to test normality and their power, and also emphasizes the need of subjecting the data obtained from toxicity studies to both normality and homogeneity tests. A flow chart suggesting the statistical techniques that maybe used for both the types of data showing a normal or non-normal distribution is also proposed.     

Does the choice of climate baseline matter in ecological niche modelling?

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have multiple applications in ecology, evolution and conservation planning. They relate the known locations of a species to characteristics of its environment (usually climate) over its geographical range. Most ENMs are trained using standard 30-year (1961-1990) or 50-year (1951-2000) baselines to represent current climate conditions. Species occurrence records used as input to the models, however, are frequently collected from time periods that differ from those from which the climate is derived. Since climate variability can be significant within and outside baselines, and the distributions of some plants and animals (e.g., annual plants, insects) can adjust to environmental conditions on much shorter time scales, this mismatch between collection records and climatic baselines may affect the utility and accuracy of model outputs. We investigated how the choice of baseline periods influenced modelling efforts, anticipating that climate baselines derived from the same temporal period as the species records would yield improved ENMs. Ten simulated species’ distributions were modelled using an ENM (Maxent) for (a) occurrences and climates within the same temporal period, based on eighteen 10-year baselines within the 20th century and (b) all available samples and climate baselines from 1951-2000 and 1961-1990. Each model was projected onto all the available 10-year climate scenarios and compared to the models trained on the corresponding scenario. We show that temporal mismatches of species occurrences and climate baselines can result in significantly poorer distribution models. Such temporal mismatch may be unavoidable for many studies, but we emphasize here the need to match the time range of samples and climate data whenever possible.     

Does local competition increase the coexistence of species in intransitive networks?

Competitive intransitivity, a situation in which species' competitive ranks cannot be listed in a strict hierarchy, promotes species coexistence through "enemy's enemy indirect facilitation." Theory suggests that intransitivity-mediated coexistence is enhanced when competitive interactions occur at local spatial scales, although this hypothesis has not been thoroughly tested. Here, we use a lattice model to investigate the effect of local vs. global competition on intransitivity-mediated coexistence across a range of species richness values and levels of intransitivity. Our simulations show that local competition can enhance intransitivity-mediated coexistence in the short-term, yet hinder it in the long-term, when compared to global competition. This occurs because local competition slows species disaggregation, allowing weaker competitors to persist longer in the shifting spatial refuges of intransitive networks, enhancing short-term coexistence. Conversely, our simulations show that, in the long-term, local competition traps disaggregated species in unfavorable areas of the competitive arena, where they are excluded by superior competitors. As a result, in the long-term, global intransitive competition allows a greater number of species to coexist than local intransitive competition.     

Does the presence of non-breeders enhance the fitness of breeders? An experimental analysis in the clown anemonefish<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Amphiprion percula</Emphasis>

The stability of animal societies depends on individuals decisions about whether to tolerate or evict others and about whether to stay or leave. These decisions, in turn, depend on individuals costs and benefits of living in the group. The clown anemonefish, Amphiprion percula, lives in groups composed of a breeding pair and zero to four non-breeders. To determine why breeders accept the presence of non-breeders in this species I investigated the effect of non-breeders on multiple components of the breeders fitness. Non-breeders did not assist breeders in any obvious way. Experimental removal of non-breeders had no significant effect on the survival, growth, or reproductive success of breeders. Experimental removal of one of the breeding pair showed that non-breeders had little effect on the time taken for a widowed breeder to recommence breeding. The results indicate that the presence of non-breeders neither enhances, nor reduces, the fitness of breeders in A. percula. I suggest that non-breeders might modulate their effect on the fitness of breeders, either by reducing the costs they inflict or by increasing the benefits they provide, such that it just pays breeders to tolerate, rather than to evict, them. This study illustrates that animal societies can be stable even when some individuals gain nothing from the association.Communicated by M. Abrahams     

Risk Premiums for Environmental Liability: Does Superfund Increase the Cost of Capital?

Superfund liability may impose financial risk on investors and thereby increase firms' costs of capital. We analyze monthly stock returns for 73 chemical companies using several measures of Superfund exposure. Additional exposure appears to increase costs of capital for larger firms, but perhaps not for smaller firms. From 1988 to 1992, we estimate an average increase in cost of capital for 23 larger firms of between 0.25 to 0.40 percentage points per year. The social cost of Superfund-related financial risk in the chemical industry may be as high as $800 million annually or enough to clean up about 20 sites.     

Does the cost of polygyny in house wrens include reduced male assistance in defending offspring?

Summary This study investigated whether reduced male aid in defending offspring potentially reduces the fitness of females choosing already-mated males in the house wren (Troglodytes aedon), a small, territorial songbird. Frozen snakes were placed at 23 nests of monogamously mated males and 12 secondary nests of bigamously mated males. All presentations were made during incubation stages of females attending focal nests. Snakes were placed at nests of secondary females when nests of their primary counterparts contained young 5–9 days old. Males are most attentive to primary nests during this period and should therefore be relatively inattentive to secondary mates and nests. Nevertheless, an equal proportion of monogamous and bigamous males discovered snakes within 15 min, and mean time to discovery, when discovery occurred, did not differ with nest status. Monogamous and bigamous males were also equally likely to attack snakes physically once discovered. Monogamous males appeared no more likely to discover snakes than bigamous males for two main reasons. First, although monogamous males were near focal nests (i.e., < 10 m) more often than bigamous males, monogamous males tended to stay out of view of nests for long periods. In contrast, bigamous males always went immediately to focal nests upon arriving in their vicinity. Second, about one-third of monogamous males in this study spent much of their time during trials at the far edges of their territories advertising for secondary mates. Our experiment suggests that reduced male aid in defending nests against small, diurnal predators probably does not contribute to the cost of polygyny in house wrens. Correspondence to: L.S. Johnson     

Is sexual monomorphism a predictor of polygynandry? Evidence from a social mammal, the collared peccary

Sexual dimorphism is common in polygynous species, and there is clear evidence that both intra-sexual competition and female preferences can drive the evolution of large body size in males. In contrast, sexual monomorphism is often argued to reflect a relaxation of male mate competition or an intensification of resource competition among females. Alternatively, it might imply opportunities for females to circumvent or counteract male mate competition in a polygynandrous mating system. We test the prediction that sexual monorphism is associated with polygynandry in the collared peccary (Pecari tajacu, Tayassuidae), a social ungulate closely related to the old-world suids. The genetic mating system in the Tayassuidae is unknown, but its sexual monomorphism presents a striking contrast to the strong size dimorphism found in most Suidae, so that a departure from the polygynous system common in Suidae would be noteworthy. We characterized genetic relationships among adults within herds in three geographically distinct populations, assigned parents to 75 offspring, and tested for skew in individual reproductive success. Parentage assignment data indicated that multiple males sire offspring within a herd, and in the population for which genetic data were most complete, 19% of parentage assignments were potentially sired by extra-herd males. Some litters have multiple sires, and neither males nor females monopolized reproduction, even in small herds. This result supports our prediction and suggests that sexual monomorphism may either select for or be an evolutionary consequence of a promiscuous mating system.     

Does the spawning of Calanus finmarchicus in high latitudes follow a reproducible pattern?

In the spring of 1989, an experimental study of the spawning behaviour of Calanus finmarchicus was carried out in Malangen, northern Norway. Here, a single cohort of females reproduce from mid-March to May, approximately coinciding with the wax and wane of the spring phytoplankton bloom. An evaluation of population characteristics such as the proportion of adults, sex ratio, as well as gonad maturation and daily productivity of the females clearly reveals three phases within the population's reproductive period. In between incline and decline, the highest spawning rates (on average >20 eggs female^-1 d^-1, equivalent to 5.7% body C d^-1) occur after the males have disappeared from the population and almost all females have mature gonads. During this period, the ratio of adults to copepodid Stage Vs changes from dominance of adults to that of CVs. Although first egg production was observed prior to the phytoplankton increase, it is suggested that the onset of the phytoplankton spring bloom in the first few days of April enhances the final maturation of ovaries in the females and therefore triggers the onset of the main spawning period. The clutch sizes (max. 95 eggs clutch^-1) vary with the age of the females, while the spawning frequencies depend on the available food quantities. The overlap of an estimated minimal 4 wk spawning period for the individuals leads to a main reproductive phase for the population of ca. 3 wk, during which time mean clutch sizes and spawning frequencies are maximal (highest average clutch size: 70 eggs female^-1 clutch^-1, 100 to 60% of the females spawning). This period ends before the end of the phytoplankton bloom. Calculated by stepwise interpolation and summation of the mean daily egg production in the population, an average female produced ca. 600 eggs during the spring bloom in Malangen 1989. We suggest that reproduction and population development of C. finmarchicus in spring follows a reproducible pattern for a given temperature regime and non-limiting food conditions. In the case of clearly identifiable cohorts, it seems possible to trace the state of reproduction by evaluating population parameters.     

Does the metal content in soil around a pregnant woman’s home increase the risk of low birth weight for her infant?

Low birth weight (LBW) is associated with a number of maternal environmental exposures during pregnancy. This study explored the association between soil metal concentrations around the home where the mother lived during pregnancy and the outcome of LBW. We used a retrospective cohort of 9,920 mother–child pairs who were insured by Medicaid during pregnancy and lived in ten residential areas, where we conducted soil sampling. We used a grid that overlaid the residential areas and collected soil samples at the grid intersections. The soil was analyzed for the concentration of eight metals [arsenic (As), barium (Ba), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), and mercury (Hg)], and we then used Bayesian Kriging to estimate the concentration at the actual maternal addresses, since we had the GIS coordinates of the homes. We used generalized additive modeling, because the metal concentrations had nonlinear associations with LBW, to develop the best fitting multivariable model for estimating the risk of LBW. The final model showed significant associations for female infants, maternal smoking during pregnancy, non-white mothers, Cu, and As with LBW. The As variable was nonlinear in relation to LBW, and the association between higher concentrations of As with LBW was strong (p = 0.002). We identified a statistically significant association between soil concentrations of arsenic around the home of pregnant women and an increased risk of LBW for her infant.     

A note on the thyroid function of the pregnant females in the USA: data from NHANES 1999–2002 and 2007–2012

Thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Consequently, this study was undertaken to assess the thyroid health of the pregnant females in the United States. Publically available data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for the cycles 1999–2002 and 2007–2012 were analyzed for this purpose. Over 22% (SE: 5.7%) of the pregnant females based on the unweighted data in their first trimester had higher than the recommended levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) or 2.5 mIU/L. Free triiodothyronine (FT3) and free thyroxine (FT4) levels decreased over pregnancy trimesters. Based on unweighted data, about 6% (SE: 2.6%) pregnant females were positive for thyroglobulin antibodies and 34.9% (SE: 5.2%) pregnant females were positive for thyroid peroxidase antibodies. Over 55% (SE: 3.5%) pregnant females based on the unweighted data were iodine deficient. As many as 41% (SE: 3%) first trimester pregnant females having TSH > 2.5 mIU/L is of concern. Future research should concentrate on developing educational and other materials that can advise pregnant females during their prenatal care and other appointments about the adverse effects of high TSH levels and what they can do to keep their TSH levels within the recommended levels.     

Does phylogenetic inertia explain the evolution of ineffective antipredator behavior in a sunfish-salamander system?

The streamside salamander, Ambystoma barbouri, exhibits ineffective antipredator behavior (high emergence rate from refuge, and high activity while out of refuge) and thus suffers heavy predation in stream pools with sunfish. A. barbouri evolved relatively recently from an ancestor that closely resembled a sister species, A. texanum, which breeds in fishless, ephemeral ponds. Sunfish thus represent a relatively new selection pressure for A. barbouri. Phylogenetic inertia predicts that (1) A. texanum should be very poor at coping with fish and (2) because it has only recently been exposed to fish, A. barbouri should still be poor at avoiding fish, but due to its recent exposure to fish, A. barbouri should be better than A. texanum at coping with sunfish. Experimental results provided mixed support for these predictions. As predicted, A. texanum suffered heavy sunfish predation. Compared to A. texanum, A. barbouri showed a greater tendency to initiate alarm moves that enhanced escape success from fish. However, in both the presence and absence of fish, A. barbouri showed higher emergence rates from refuge and higher movement while out of refuge than A. texanum. These behaviors tend to increase exposure to sunfish, i.e., for these key behaviors, A. barbouri apparently evolved in the wrong direction as far as fish predation is concerned. Due to these offsetting effects (increased exposure to fish, increased escape success), A. barbouri is no better at surviving with sunfish than A. texanum. A possible explanation for the high activity of A. barbouri is its use of highly ephemeral habitats (relative to A. texanum) that favor the evolution of higher activity, feeding, and developmental rates for A. barbouri relative to A. texanum. Received: 15 May 2000 / Revised: 3 August 2000 / Accepted: 18 August 2000