Oligopoly meets oligopsony: The case of permits

This paper derives market equilibria (in demand functions and in bidding strategies) between oligopolists and oligopsonists in a market with intermediates and no competition in final markets. To the best of my knowledge, this theme has not been explored, despite two observations: Firstly, the commonly applied framework of non-competitive and competitive fringe firms has implausible properties for the limit of purely strategic players. Secondly, real world cases correspond at least potentially to such strategic interactions, e.g., non-competitive players selling and buying permits (${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ and ${\mathrm{SO}}_2$). The major implications are that these non-competitive markets are characterized by a kind of double marginalization (on the demand and the supply side) resulting in too little trade and wrong price signals.     

Herding tendency as an aggregating factor in a binary mixture of social entities

The role of herding tendency in the group formation of social entities is hereby explored. The herding tendency is quantified by a parameter α∈[0,1]$\alpha \in [0\text{,}1]$. The system consists of a mixture of two types of entities: (i) those with α>0$\alpha >0$ and (ii) those with α=0$\alpha =0$. The latter consist a fraction p   of the entire population. The dynamics of agent interactions leads to the formation of clusters of different sizes. The size distribution D(s)$D(s)$ of these clusters are found to obey a power-law only in the limit that α→1$\alpha \to 1$ and p→0$p\to 0$. Group-size data of several real-world animal systems are fitted with curves generated by the model. This study contributes further to the understanding of group-forming behavior commonly cited in ecological studies.     

Description and sensitivity analysis for the LESV model: Water quality variables and the balance of organisms in a fjordic region of restricted exchange

In this paper we describe a new ecological model for Regions of Restricted Exchange (RRE), such as fjords, estuaries, rias and lagoons. The model is intended to simulate the impact of external nutrient input on microplankton (phytoplankton plus pelagic microheterotrophs) in RREs. We have implemented the model with the practical purpose of finding a safe limit to the capacities of RRE to assimilate fish-farm waste. Sea-cage farming of fish is increasing in fjords in northern and southern hemispheres, and its external nutrient input can lead to environmental problems such as eutrophication and deoxygenation. The model includes a physical system of three layers with exchanges driven by tidal movement, freshwater input, wind stirring. The biological part includes two microplankton compartments, each parameterizing a microbial loop and each containing chlorophyll. The first compartment represents diatoms and associated heterotrophs, and the second compartment represents flagellates and associated heterotrophs. As well as the balance of these organisms, the model simulates concentrations of nutrient N, P, and Si, dissolved oxygen, and water transparency. Chlorophyll and nutrient change are linked by yields (q  ). Losses of microplankton to grazing by mesozooplankton or benthos are simulated by a temperature-dependent grazing pressure acting on a mean loss (_L0)$(L_0)$. The model also includes the ability to simulate point source inputs of nutrients or organic matter and a generic tracer with first order decay. Sea-cage fish-farms exemplify such point sources. In order to explore model behaviour, we included inputs from a 1500 tonnes salmon farm multiplied by a factor (γ)$(\gamma )$. We carried out sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential model parameters and forcing variables in the case of the shallow Scottish fjord, Loch Creran, in 1975 before the introduction of salmon farming. We tested the model fit to this pristine state (γ=0)$(\gamma =0)$, using Major Axis Regression of simulated variables on observed variables. The model successfully follows the seasonal cycles of chlorophyll (summer over both microplanktons) and the limiting nutrients (P, N). The sensitivity analysis identified three sets of key parameters: (γ)$(\gamma )$ and other fish-farm coefficients, which control farm waste effects on an RRE; (_L0)$(L_0)$ parameters for each microplankton, which link these to the rest of the ecosystem and which have implications for future inclusion of shellfish farming in the model and, chlorophyll yields from nutrients (q), which are crucial for the predication of eutrophication and the ecological understanding of the model.     

Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model

A saturation of climate–carbon cycle feedback was found earlier in the simulations with the IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity. Here, this eventual saturation is interpreted by using a conceptual linearised coupled model. It is shown that this saturation is due to weak, logarithmic, dependence of the carbon dioxide radiative forcing on its atmospheric concentration. This eventual saturation leads to the non-monotonic behaviour of climate–carbon cycle parameter f   in time. If the time scale of the atmospheric CO₂${\text{CO}}_2$ build up is _tp$t_{\text{p}}$ then, starting from an initial equilibrium, f   approaches maximum in time ?_tp$?t_{\text{p}}$. Afterwards, climate–carbon cycle parameter decreases and eventually tends to unity. The time scale of the latter decrease is _t1=(1−5)_tp$t_1=(1-5)t_{\text{p}}$. A dependence of _tm$t_{\text{m}}$ and _t1$t_1$ on governing parameters of the conceptual model is studied. It is argued that an eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback is expected to occur also in the other integrations of sufficient length with coupled climate–carbon cycle models.     

On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called _R0$R_0$) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) _R0$R_0$ cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations.     

PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript>-related health impacts of utilizing ammonia-hydrogen energy in Kanto Region,Japan

Ammonia has emerged as a promising hydrogen carrier with applications as an energy source in recent years. However, in addition to being toxic, gaseous ammonia is a precursor of secondary inorganic aerosols. The concentration of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is intrinsically connected to public health. In this study, PM_2.5-related health impacts of utilizing ammonia-hydrogen energy in Kanto Region, Japan, were investigated. It was assumed that 20% of the electricity consumption in Kanto Region, the most populated area in Japan, was supplied by ammonia-hydrogen energy. The PM_2.5 resulted from incomplete ammonia decomposition was simulated by a chemical transport model: ADMER-PRO (modified version). Based on the incremental PM_2.5 concentration, health impacts on the elderly (individuals over 65 years old) were quantitatively evaluated. The ammonia emission in this scenario increased PM_2.5 by 11.7% (0.16 μg·m^–3·y^–1) in winter and 3.5% (0.08 μg ·m^–3·y^–1) in summer, resulting in 351 premature deaths per year. This study suggests that costeffective emissions control or treatment and appropriate land planning should be considered to reduce the associated health impacts of this type of energy generation. In addition, further in-depth research, including cost-benefit analysis and security standards, is needed.

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Source apportionment of PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> in Tangshan,China—Hybrid approaches for primary and secondary species apportionment

The objective of this paper is to propose a hybrid approach for the source apportionment of primary and secondary species of PM_2.5 in the city of Tangshan. The receptor-based PMF (Positive Matrix Factorization) is integrated with the emission inventory (EI) to form the first hybrid method for the source apportionment of the primary species. The hybrid CAMx-PSAT-CP (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions–Particulate Source Apportionment Technology–Chemical Profile) approach is then proposed and used for the source apportionment of the secondary species. The PM_2.5 sources identified for Tangshan included the soil dust, the metallurgical industry, power plants, coalfired boilers, vehicles, cement production, and other sources. It is indicated that the PM_2.5 pollution is a regional issue. Among all the identified sources, the metallurgy industry was the biggest contribution source to PM_2.5, followed by coal-fired boilers, vehicles and soil dust. The other-source category plays a crucial role for PM_2.5, particularly for the formation of secondary species and aerosols, and these other sources include non-specified sources such as agricultural activities, biomass combustion, residential emissions, etc. The source apportionment results could help the local authorities make sound policies and regulations to better protect the citizens from the local and regional PM_2.5 pollution. The study also highlights the strength of utilizing the proposed hybrid approaches in the identification of PM_2.5 sources. The techniques used in this study show considerable promise for further application to other regions as well as to identify other source categories of PM_2.5.

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