主要发达国家碳达峰碳中和的实践经验及对中国的启示

气候变化问题是人类社会共同面临的重大挑战，关系到人类生存和各国利益。推进碳达峰碳中和是中国的一项重大战略决策，是负责任大国对国际社会的庄严承诺，也是推动高质量发展的内在要求。本文归纳分析欧盟、美国、日本、韩国、德国、英国等主要发达经济体碳达峰的经济社会特征、碳中和的路径共识，系统梳理推动实现碳达峰碳中和的经验举措，对比分析中国国内进展和差距，并提出重点借鉴的国际经验与启示。研究发现，中国已经逐步具备实现碳达峰国家的基本特征，但相比发达国家，在降碳效果核算评估、低碳安全高效能源系统构建、碳价格传导机制设计、低碳技术创新和新业态模式打造、法规制度系统化构建等方面仍有差距，仍需加强政策驱动和重点国际经验借鉴，进一步优化“双碳”目标评估指标体系，将构建清洁、低碳、安全、高效能源系统作为能源生产和消费革命的主要目标，有序推进碳排放权交易市场建设和能源资源市场化价格调控，强化绿色低碳技术的研发创新，加快构建形成系统性推动“双碳”目标的法规体系。     

碳中和背景下欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国的影响及对策分析

在全球碳中和的新形势下,欧盟委员会于2021年7月正式提出“碳边境调节机制”（CBAM）立法提案,并计划于2023年起实施。本文在总结立法提案关键要素的基础上,着重分析欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性,研判可能对我国产生的潜在影响,并从国际国内层面提出对策建议。分析发现,欧盟采取“名义”碳市场的形式,初期将覆盖水泥、电力、化肥、钢铁和铝等5个行业,只核算产品生产过程的直接排放,暂不考虑间接排放,2023—2025年是过渡期,2026年开始正式实施。欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性面临诸多挑战：不符合世界贸易组织国民待遇原则和最惠国待遇原则,但存在满足关税与贸易总协定例外条款的可能性;违反国际气候治理的共同但有区别的责任原则、公平原则和各自能力原则,也不符合公约关于国际贸易歧视或变相限制的条款;对解决碳泄漏问题和保护本土竞争力的作用有限;产品隐含碳核算和碳价确定是技术难点问题。影响评估发现,欧盟CBAM将使我国受影响部门的对欧出口总额降低11%～13%,出口成本增加1亿～3.05亿美元,其中约四分之三的成本将由钢铁行业承担,对贸易隐含碳的下降作用有待进一步考量;此外,欧盟CBAM将会影响多边国际...     

北京市水资源领域适应气候变化对策及保障措施探讨

气候变化问题日益凸显,应对和适应气候变化刻不容缓。然而,短期内无法有效减缓气候变化产生的不利影响。因此,有必要针对不同领域制定相应的适应措施来提高人们对气候变化的适应能力。北京作为人口众多的大城市及我国的缺水城市之一,气候变化无疑将加剧水资源的供需矛盾。本文针对北京市水资源现状及气候变化对北京市水资源领域已经形成的影响,从自然、工程、政策制度三个角度探讨了北京市水资源领域适应气候变化可采取的对策及保障措施。     

应对气候变化法的立法探究

为了实现碳排放达峰目标和碳中和愿景,明确应对气候变化的法律地位、工作目标和法律要求,规定部门职责及温室气体排放权的法律属性与交易机制,分解工作目标并开展评价考核,彰显国家应对气候的法治决心,亟须制定综合性基础法律——应对气候变化法。该法的制定已具备充足的研究起草基础和下位法支撑,建议尽快纳入全国人大常委会立法计划,并启动《环境保护法》等相关法律的修改。本文建议,将低碳发展和碳排放达峰、碳中和等纳入立法目的,设立总则、规划与标准、气候变化减缓、气候变化适应、管理和监督、国际合作、法律责任、附则八章,合理设立规范重点。健全统一监管与部门分工负责的体制和基金筹集、市场交易、社会共治等机制,全面构建国内应对气候变化管理制度体系,部署国际协商与合作措施,设置地方政府工作目标责任,对违法行为规定罚则。     

“双碳”目标下中国气候变化诉讼的法治因应

气候变化诉讼在全球范围内的兴起,不仅为国际气候治理带来新曙光,也为我国应对气候变化提供了新思路。具体而言,这一制度关涉到中国“双碳”目标的实现、应对气候变化新路径的探索、全球气候治理话语权的提升及企业抗气候风险能力的增强,在我国已具备现实的发展需求。但从实然层面而言,气候变化诉讼虽已可以在环境公益诉讼中窥见雏形,但囿于实体法与程序法的缺位,加之法院在气候治理中能动性体现不足,司法与行政关系亟待厘清,提起气候变化诉讼仍存有诸多障碍。未来我国应不断完善气候变化诉讼的落实路径,充分发挥法院在司法解释、案例指导等方面对气候变化诉讼的助推作用,并在明晰气候司法与行政关系的基础上,逐步加强公众参与。     

中国的气候变化更值得关注——访中国适应气候变化项目总监梁丽女士

正中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC)是首个中国与发达国家在适应气候变化方面的合作项目。目前处于项目二期阶段,旨在通过试点研究,探索如何将适应气候变化纳入社会经济发展中去,以降低中国面对气候变化的脆弱性,提高适应能力。同时通过国际分享,帮助其他国家开发切实可行的气候变化适应方法。近日,记者采访了该项目总监,来自英国的梁丽博士。记者:请先介绍一下项目的有关情况。梁丽:项目一期(2009年—2013年)由中、英、     

林农气候变化感知及适应性行为研究——以四川大熊猫保护区947户农户为例CSSCI

基于四川省大熊猫保护区周边947户农户的调查数据,运用Heckman Probit两阶段模型分析了林农气候变化感知与适应性行为选择;通过构建MNL模型,进一步探究林农选择各项适应性行为的影响因素。结果表明:气候变化感知是林农采取适应性行为的基础,年龄、文化程度和家庭受到自然灾害对林农的气候变化感知与适应性行为均有正向显著影响,而在保护区内的居住因素对其气候变化感知与适应性行为均有负向显著作用,林地面积、购买森林保险、借贷可获得性和接受保护区培训并未影响林农的气候变化感知,但对他们采取适应性措施具有显著正向作用。基于研究,提出提高林农教育水平、增强文化素质、提高抗灾能力、完善信贷服务体系、加强社区共管模式、开展保护区专项培训等建议。     

工业园区绿色低碳发展国际经验及其对中国的启示

国际工业园区绿色低碳发展为我国工业园区碳中和转型提供了大量的实践经验。本文在总结卡伦堡、蔚山、川崎等国外典型生态工业园区绿色化和低碳化发展模式和路径的基础上,分析了上述工业共生体系的碳减排措施,并总结国外生态工业园区的低碳发展经验和启示。结果显示：①国外生态工业园区低碳化具有显著的三阶段特征,即历经节能增效降碳、减污降碳协同、自发式降碳等阶段,最终进入碳中和导向阶段;②政府引领成为园区绿色发展和低碳化的重要特征,且政府主动介入时间与《京都议定书》的签署时间高度吻合;③合理使用政策手段是推动绿色发展和低碳化的主要手段;④推进系统性变革是绿色发展和低碳化的战略重点。最后,本文面向我国“双碳”目标的实现,给出了推进我国工业园区碳中和的4点建议：加速制定工业园区碳中和路线图、强化低碳指标、推进示范试点,以及建立碳中和政策框架。     

碳边境调节机制：欧盟应对气候变化的新选择与中国因应

近年来,欧盟考虑在气候变化立法中引入碳边境调节机制,旨在消除境外企业由于碳排放成本不对称而获得的价格优势。这一机制对于欧盟对冲减排压力、助力工业回流、增强气候领导力以及推动绿色转型大有裨益。作为一种碳关税政策,该机制确有贸易壁垒之嫌,在国际法上存在较大合法性争议。但未来欧盟可通过制度设计使其符合《关税与贸易总协定》（GATT）第20条,进而获得实施可能性。对我国而言,该机制实施必将会在诸多领域对我国产生不利影响,但某种程度上也可倒逼我国出口结构和贸易方式的调整升级。基于此,今后我国应自上而下完善碳市场建设,适时推动“碳交易+碳税”复合政策双轮驱动;积极开展气候外交;促进我国承接国际产业转移和出口的可持续发展。在法律对策上,积极参与国际谈判与规则制定;完善气候治理体系;促进低碳外贸发展;健全可再生能源激励制度。     

中美气候变化合作的前景及中国对策

美国新一届政府在对华关系中力推气候变化问题有多重意图和目的,但其合作意愿和需求是真实存在的,而意愿和需求能否有效推动真实合作则需要考量。总体而言,针对中美气候变化合作出现的新形势,中国应坚持双边与多边并举,以双边为主的原则。     

Agricultural Adaptation to Drought for Different Cropping Systems in Southern China under Climate Change

This study investigates agricultural adaptation to drought for different cropping systems in southern China. The study area was divided into three regions: South China (SC), South of the Yangtze River (SYR), and Southwest China (SWC). An index of agricultural adaptation to drought (D) was established. Our findings indicated that the average total crop water demand varied greatly among the regions from 1961 to 2010 in southern China. The maximum value was found in the SC region, followed by the SYR and SWC regions. The effects of droughts on different crops were noticeable. Frequent droughts were recorded in late rice than in early rice in the SC and SYR regions. Droughts in the SWC region mainly affected winter wheat. Moreover, the effects of droughts on crops varied during different growth stages. More frequent and serious droughts occurred during the crop critical flowering stage. Particularly, the frequency of moderate and severe droughts for late rice in the SYR region was 62% during the critical flowering stage. For the SC and SYR regions, the D values of early rice (0.29 and 0.29) were lower than that of late rice (0.31 and 0.33), respectively. For the SWC region, the D values of winter wheat and rice were both low, with averages of 0.16 and 0.29, respectively. Our study provides interesting insights for improving the drought defense abilities for different cropping systems by changing crop planting proportion on a regional scale in China.     

Climate adaptation management and institutional erosion: insights from a major Canadian port

This paper performs an institutional analysis of the adaptation to climate change by ports, through a case study of the port of Vancouver, Canada. While previous literature has demonstrated the value of informal institutions for filling gaps left by formal institutions, the role of failed informal institutions has received less attention. Our analysis reveals how, in the case of an unprecedented challenge like climate adaptation, relying on informal institutions with less agency can actually erode the strength of existing institutions in a form of negative institutional plasticity. In this case, emerging polycentric governance was unsuccessful, unable to construct clearly demarcated responsibilities due to impedance by the path dependence of the current federalist system. The latter works well for traditional infrastructure investments with a closed pool of stakeholders, but not for ports where multiple scales of embeddedness, both horizontally and vertically, produce a collective action problem with no mechanism for resolution.     

Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures.     

全球气候治理背景下中国气候金融发展的挑战和应对

气候金融是全球气候治理的重要基础和关键要素。国际政治局势的变动和《巴黎协定》的签订使得全球气候治理格局发生了重大转变。文章基于这一时代背景和国际气候金融发展趋势,从气候金融政策发展、气候金融机构及其产品和服务、气候金融风险管理三个角度梳理中国气候金融发展现状和内外部障碍。基于此,文章提出了气候金融发展的中国应对策略,认为应健全政策体系,加强国际合作;扩大金融供给,完善行业体系;健全法规约束,提升管理水平。     

东北地区典型农区土地利用变化对农业扩张和气候变化的响应研究

大规模的农业扩张和全球气候变化导致东北地区发生剧烈的土地利用/土地覆盖变化。本研究分析了研究区1976—2008年的土地利用变化和生长季各月气温的变化趋势,并结合农业扩张程度,探究LUCC对农业扩张和气候变化的响应,为指导农业发展规划和保障国家粮食安全提供理论依据。结果表明,1976—2008年农田面积逐步增加,生长季气温一直呈上升趋势。1976—2001年生长季气温的上升趋势不稳定,气温变化程度较大;2001—2008年,农业扩张放缓,生长季气温上升趋势显著,且上升趋势一直增加,气温变化比上一时期更稳定;且这两个时期农业扩张和气候变化对土地利用强度的影响在南北和东西方向上均存在明显差异。     

Government response to climate change in China: a study of provincial and municipal plans

In this paper, we provide an overview of local and regional climate change plans in China by scrutinizing planning documents from 16 cities, four autonomous regions, and 22 provinces. We develop and apply an evaluation protocol to understand goals, process, and strategies in these plans. We also conduct interviews with government officials to provide a context for subnational climate change planning. The results indicate that current climate change planning in China is characterized by the ‘top-down’ approach, in which the central governmental incentives play a vital role in shaping provincial and municipal plans. In addition, most plans have the following issues: vague definition of what characterizes a low-carbon city/region; deficiency in the quality of greenhouse gas inventory and reduction targets; insufficient strategies provided to respond to climate change; inadequate stakeholder engagement; and weak horizontal coordination. Finally, we offer recommendations to improve climate change planning in China.     

Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales1

Arnell, Nigel W., 2011. Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):541‐549. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00548.x Abstract: Public water supplies in England and Wales are provided by around 25 private‐sector companies, regulated by an economic regulator (Ofwat) and environmental regulator (Environment Agency). As part of the regulatory process, companies are required periodically to review their investment needs to maintain safe and secure supplies, and this involves an assessment of the future balance between water supply and demand. The water industry and regulators have developed an agreed set of procedures for this assessment. Climate change has been incorporated into these procedures since the late 1990s, although has been included increasingly seriously over time and it has been an effective legal requirement to consider climate change since the 2003 Water Act. In the most recent assessment in 2009, companies were required explicitly to plan for a defined amount of climate change, taking into account climate change uncertainty. A “medium” climate change scenario was defined, together with “wet” and “dry” extremes, based on scenarios developed from a number of climate models. The water industry and its regulators are now gearing up to exploit the new UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections – but these pose significant practical and conceptual challenges. This paper outlines how the procedures for incorporating climate change information into water resources planning have evolved, and explores the issues currently facing the industry in adapting to climate change.     

碳达峰碳中和目标下可再生能源产业财税金融支持政策研究

能源作为经济社会发展的重要物质基础,也是碳排放的主要来源,推动能源结构调整、大力发展可再生能源产业是实现碳达峰碳中和目标的必然要求。为了促进可再生能源产业发展,国家实施了一系列财税宏观调控政策。本文在梳理政策现状的基础上,对存在的问题进行了识别,包括弃风弃光现象影响财政资金使用效益、可再生能源电价补贴不到位、财税优惠政策形式相对单一、优惠政策执行的配套机制不足等。从建立、完善可再生能源电力消纳保障机制,多种渠道解决可再生能源补贴缺口问题,进一步完善税收优惠政策,适时优化调整财政支持政策,与其他政策协同发挥作用等方面提出了政策优化建议。