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摸清流域生态需求和生态供给是流域生态治理和促进其高质量发展的基础。文中应用改进生态足迹法对2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力进行核算,并运用GM(1,1)模型对流域未来的生态供需趋势进行预测。结果显示,2009—2018年渭河干流甘肃段生态足迹和生态承载力呈波动下降趋势,生态足迹下降2.26%,下降趋势低于生态承载力的4.18%;生态赤字以每年0.58%的速率波动减小。如果继续当前的发展模式,那么预计到2028年,生态赤字较2018年降低16.27%,流域生态安全状况将得到缓解。 相似文献
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根据2000--2012年全国城镇生活污水排放量数据,建立了相应的GM(1,1)模型和预测函数。通过后验差检验等对预测函数进行了评估,并对2013--2017年城镇生活污水排放量进行了预测,结果表明,2013--2017年全国城镇生活污水的排放量逐年增加,呈上升趋势,从2013年的477.2736亿t上升到2017年的624.1022亿t;灰色预测模型和方法简单易用,利用较少的数据即可进行精度较高的预测。 相似文献
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运用灰色理论建立水质预测模型,通过对水质指标拟合值与实测值差异性分析,判断模型精密度,并预测山东省东阿县下马头水源地未来2年的水质变化趋势,结果表明:在4项水质指标预测模型中,总硬度、氟化物指标的GM(1,1)时间响应预测模型拟合结果较好;溶解性总固体、硝酸盐指标的GM(1,1)时间响应预测模型精密度均为3级,不适合指标的预测;未来2年下马头水源地岩溶地下水水质良好。 相似文献
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灰色系统的GM(1,1)模型在地表水COD浓度预测中的应用 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
本文试用灰色系统中的GM(1,1)模型,对某地1982年~1989年地表水—监测断面COD浓度变化进行建模预测,旨在为预测地表水污染变化找到一条准确适用的方法. 相似文献
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以北京市某典型区域作为研究对象,在收集大量相关资料与实测历史噪声数据的基础上,对研究区域内的声环境质量影响因素进行灰色关联度分析,并运用灰色理论建立GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果表明,影响城市区域声环境质量因素从大到小的排序依次为:机动车辆﹥常住人口数量﹥平均车流量﹥地区生产总值﹥城市道路桥梁﹥基础设施投资﹥治理噪声环保投资;以研究区域内噪声污染实测历史数据建立的GM(1,1)模型精度符合要求标准,根据GM(1,1)模型预测北京市“十二五”期间声环境质量达标且有轻微下降趋势。 相似文献
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应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对地下水中总硬度的变化作了预测.检验结果表明,该模型精度较高,是一种较好的预测方法. 相似文献
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本文对“十三五”期间新乡市城市环境噪声污染现状及趋势进行分析。并采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测新乡市未来5 a城市噪声环境质量,灰色关联分析得出有效治理对策。结果表明:经模型预测新乡市2021—2025年城市区域噪声、功能区噪声(昼间、夜间)等效声级呈小幅下降趋势,道路交通噪声等效声级呈上升趋势,级别由“较好”变为“一般”,污染防控方面压力较大,需加大监管力度。通过交通噪声影响因子关联性分析得出应从人口增加、机动车数量、城镇化扩张等方面制定有效防治措施。 相似文献
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在阐述生态文明建设内涵的基础上,从资源利用、经济发展、国土空间布局、生态环境保护和社会进步5个方面选取30项指标,运用综合指数法开展深圳市生态文明建设评价,并借助灰色系统模型GM(1,1)预测其发展趋势。研究表明,深圳市生态文明建设成果逐步凸显,除国土空间布局对生态文明建设贡献呈下降趋势外,其余4个方面对其贡献均逐步提高;地方政府生态文明建设考核压力逐步趋缓。预测显示深圳市生态文明建设得分持续小幅度增加,生态文明建设得到持续加强。当前生态文明建设重点在于优化国土空间布局,需要加强耕地保护、调整土地利用结构和控制人口密度。 相似文献
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针对目前室内环境监测工作出现的种种问题,就如何规范的开展室内环境监测工作,更好地为社会提供真实、准确、有效的监测数据,本文提出相关的探讨。 相似文献
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Xiangyun Liu Yan Yang Ying Cui Huijun Zhu Xiong Li Zhining Li Kankan Zhang Deyu Hu 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2014,186(8):5307-5313
A simple and accurate method of determining metalaxyl and cymoxanil in pepper and soil was developed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography–photodiode array detection. The limits of detection were 0.015 mg/kg for metalaxyl and 0.003 mg/kg for cymoxanil. The limits of quantification were 0.05 mg/kg for metalaxyl in pepper and soil as well as 0.01 mg/kg for cymoxanil in pepper and soil. Recoveries of pepper and soil were investigated at three spiking levels and ranged within 77.52 to 102.05 % for metalaxyl and 87.15 to 103.21 % for cymoxanil, with relative standard deviations below 9.30 %. For field experiments, the half-lives of metalaxyl were 3.2 to 3.9 days in pepper and 4.4 to 9.5 days in soil at the three experimental locations in China. At harvest, pepper samples were found to contain metalaxyl and cymoxanil well below the maximum residue limit MRLs of the European Union (EU) following the recommended dosage and the interval of 21 days after last application. 相似文献
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Peter Timmerman 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1998,49(2-3):111-122
The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses. 相似文献
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Canada responded to the Global Biodiversity Convention by completing the Canadian Biodiversity Strategy in 1995. At the same time, Environment Canada also completed a national Science Assessment on Biodiversity. During this period, the Smithsonian Institution, in partnership with Parks and Environment Canada, initiated the implementation of a global biodiversity monitoring program in Canada. Under the auspices of the United Nations Man and the Biosphere Program, the SI/MAB monitoring protocols and plots have spread across Canada at an unprecedented rate. National champions in the science and educational sectors, working within an inter-disciplinary ecological framework, have guided the development, education, quality control and sharing of atmosphere-biodiversity observations electronically.Atmospheric-Biodiversity Networks and Networking have traditionally operated within separate mandates with little degree of integration. Air-Bio Networks were designed within an integrated framework to better understand the atmospheric stress on biodiversity and the adaptation actions, nationally and regionally. Detailed examples of the cumulative effects of climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, ground-level ozone, suspended particulate matter and hazardous air pollutants on biodiversity will be discussed using a Southern Ontario case study. In addition, recommendations will be presented for future paired SI/MAB plots, linked networks and networking for adaptation within the context of climate, chemical and ecological gradients. 相似文献
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Junxue Wu Hongyan Zhang Kai Wang Chengju Wang 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2014,186(2):1195-1202
A simple and accurate method for the determination of bismerthiazol and its metabolite 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole was developed in Chinese cabbage and soil by high-performance liquid chromatography-diode array detection in this study. The limits of detection were 0.06 mg/kg for bismerthiazol and 0.03 mg/kg for 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole, respectively. Recoveries of cabbage and soil were investigated at three spiking levels and were in the range of 84.0–96.0 % for bismerthiazol and 71.0–74.6 % for 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole, with relative standard deviations below 7.0 %. For field experiments, the half-life of bismerthiazol was 2.4–2.5 days in Chinese cabbage and 2.5–4.8 days in soil at the two experimental locations in China. Dissipation residues of 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole were lower than 0.72 mg/kg. Terminal residues of bismerthiazol and its metabolite were less than 3.0 and 0.3 mg/kg in Chinese cabbage, respectively. No bismerthiazol or metabolite residues were detected in soil on days 5, 7, 10, and 14 after the last spraying at the two dosage levels. 相似文献
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