A GIS-based decision support system for determining the shortest and safest route to forest fires: a case study in Mediterranean Region of Turkey

The ability of firefighting vehicles and staff to reach a fire area as quickly as possible is critical in fighting against forest fires. In this study, a Geographical Information System-based decision support system was developed to assist fire managers in determining the fastest and the safest or more reliable access routes from firefighting headquarters to fire areas. The decision support system was tested in the Kahramanmaras Forestry Regional Directoratein the Mediterranean region of Turkey. The study area consisted of forested lands which had been classified according to fire sensitivity. The fire response routing simulations considered firefighting teams located in 20 firefighting headquarter locations. The road network, the locations of the firefighting headquarters, and possible fire locations were mapped for simulation analysis. In alternative application simulations, inaccessible roads which might be closed due to fire or other reasons were indicated in the network analysis so that the optimum route was not only the fastest but also the safest and most reliable path. The selection of which firefighting headquarters to use was evaluated by considering critical response time to potential fire areas based on fire sensitivity levels. Results indicated that new firefighting headquarters should be established in the region in order to provide sufficient firefighting response to all forested lands. In addition, building new fire access roads and increasing the design speed on current roads could also increase firefighting response capabilities within the study area.     

洞庭湖区一次重度空气污染过程成因分析

利用AQI和PM_(2. 5)质量浓度、地面气象要素、NCEP、ERSST_V3、GBL等资料,对2016年12月29日至2017年1月5日洞庭湖区一次重度空气污染过程成因进行了分析。结果表明,静稳天气形势下的累积效应和本地持续升温、降压、增湿、小风导致污染物浓度不断增加。本地风速与雨量对污染物浓度产生显著影响。降温前风速明显加大,有利于污染物快速扩散。湿度增加有利于污染物吸湿性增长,但高湿易引起降水有利于污染物的湿清除。此次重度空气污染过程中大气稳定度为中性或稳定,14:00混合层高度逐渐降低且重度空气污染日降至100 m以下。污染物空间分布与主导风向和污染通道密切相关。气流后向轨迹分析表明,洞庭湖区各地气流来源和影响路径差异明显,且存在大范围区域性同步污染现象。北方外来污染源是洞庭湖区重要的污染面源,本地工业污染排放点源和地理条件也是洞庭湖区空气污染物空间分布差异的重要因素。     

不同天气形势下杭州市空气污染特征个例分析

利用杭州市气象局观测资料、NCEP再分析资料和中尺度天气预报模式WRF的数值模拟结果,对杭州市2011—2012年春、夏、秋、冬4个季节各一天的污染天气进行分析;同时选取2012年夏季有利于污染物扩散的天气个例进行对比分析。结果表明,杭州市容易发生轻度污染的天气类型主要有4类:高压前部、高压底部、高压控制和高压后部;500 h Pa高空系统稳定,受西南气流影响,850 h Pa有暖平流,1 000 h Pa风速较小时,容易造成污染物的积累,发生空气污染现象。WRF模拟结果显示,当杭州市为偏北风且风速较小时,容易发生空气污染事件,当为偏南风且风速较大时,空气质量一般较好。温度层结分析发现,当近地层以及高空出现较为深厚的逆温层且低层温度层结呈现中性或者稳定时,不利于污染物的扩散,污染物容易在底层积累,出现近地层空气污染现象。     

An investigation into the origins of a series of PM10 anomalies at a remote location in NW England

Throughout 2004, PM(10) concentrations were measured at 10 min intervals at Hazelrigg, a remote location in NW England. The annual mean concentration was 6.1 microg m(-3) and likely origins were determined using directional and particle size characteristics. The fine temporal resolution of the monitoring also allowed several short periods (< 20 h) of persistently high PM(10) concentration to be identified and then 'typed' by event start time, duration, wind direction and particle size characteristics. A series of night time PM(10) anomalies (concentration < 465 microg m(-3)) of no obvious source were identified, and by elimination assumed to have originated from a ground-based fire of particle-rich fodder. A novel methodology combining Stokes' Law with systematic and rigorous modelling of source strength (using ADMS3.2) was developed to locate a possible burn site. The process was limited by the lack of previous modelling studies related to ground-based fires, and also by the capacity of ADMS3.2 to model sub-hourly time-varying emissions and fluctuations in wind speed and direction in the near field. However, modelling did suggest the source was located <400 m SSE of Hazelrigg, and investigation of this area revealed a burn site where tyres and plastic bags were piled nearby. Few studies have combined directional analysis and modelling to locate a source based on sampled data. This innovative methodology could be used by regulatory bodies to investigate the origins of unidentified PM(10) observed within the particle record.     

深圳大运会期间一次光化学污染事件成因分析

对深圳大运会期间8月20日发生的一次光化学污染过程进行分析。此次过程中,处于工业区的石岩大气成分站测得O3浓度小时平均最大值为213.4μɡ/m3,超过国家环境空气质量二级标准限值(200μɡ/m3),出现时间在当日13:00～14:00时。与处于城区的竹子林站和郊区的西涌站污染物浓度进行对比分析得知,此次光化学污染的主要特点是局地性较强,持续时间较短,影响范围小。同步的风速、风向、温度、相对湿度及紫外辐射等气象要素分析表明,此次光化学污染事件与气象条件关系非常紧密,当日天气晴朗、日照强烈、温度高、相对湿度适中,有利于光化学反应的发生,且不利的风向条件使得来自上风向城区的污染物易于累积。     

Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models

Large wildland fires are major disturbances that strongly influence the carbon cycling and vegetation dynamics of Canadian boreal ecosystems. Although large wildland fires have recently received much scrutiny in scientific study, it is still a challenge for researchers to predict large fire frequency and burned area. Here, we use monthly climate and elevation data to quantify the frequency of large fires using a Poisson model, and we calculate the probability of burned area exceeding a certain size using a compound Poisson process. We find that the Poisson model simulates large fire occurrence well during the fire season (May through August) using monthly climate, and the threshold probability calculated by the compound Poisson model agrees well with historical records. Threshold probabilities are significantly different among different Canadian ecozones, with the Boreal Shield ecozone always showing the highest probability. The fire prediction model described in this study and the derived information will facilitate future quantification of fire risks and help improve fire management in the region.     

Grouping and representativeness of monitoring stations based on wind speed and wind direction data in urban areas of Japan

Data on wind speed and wind direction from 27 air pollution monitoring stations in an urban area of Japan were analyzed and studied for the future assessment of the urban heat island phenomenon. A cluster analysis clarified the regionality of the wind speed and wind direction. In the study area, land and sea breeze developed and controlled the wind direction. On the other hand, the mountain and valley wind should be studied to determine their typical behavior.     

A Three-Dimensional Hydro-Environmental Model of Dublin Bay

In this study, the impact of Escherichia coli emissions from a sewage treatment plant on the bathing water quality of Dublin Bay (Ireland) is assessed using a three-dimensional hydro-environmental model. Before being discharged, the effluent from the plant is mixed with cooling water from a thermal?Celectrical power generation plant, creating a warm buoyant sewage plume that can be 7?C9°C higher and is less saline than the ambient water in the bay. The ability of the three-dimensional model in representing such a stratified condition is assessed based on a comparison of its results with two-dimensional modelling results. Hydrodynamic simulations of water levels and flow velocities in Dublin Bay were obtained using the TELEMAC-3D model in one case and the depth-averaged TELEMAC-2D model in the other. The results of each model were separately used as inputs to the water quality model SUBIEF-3D to simulate the transport and fate of E. coli in the bay and to generate maps of E. coli concentrations over the bay. In addition, the necessity for three-dimensional modelling in simulating the effects of wind direction on the dispersion of E. coli was demonstrated by comparing the results of three-dimensional and two-dimensional model simulations with a number of different wind directions. The comparison showed that the three-dimensional model performed better than the depth-averaged model in simulating the hydrodynamics and resulted in better simulation of the water quality processes in the bay. In particular, the three-dimensional model had reasonably simulated the timing of the delivery of E. coli to the bay. Moreover, the effect of wind on the movement of the buoyant plume of pollution and on the E. coli distribution was found to be more pronounced with the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The results demonstrate the need for three-dimensional simulations in situations of density differences or significant wind influences.     

Decadal time-scale monitoring of forest fires in Similipal Biosphere Reserve,India using remote sensing and GIS

Analyzing the spatial extent and distribution of forest fires is essential for sustainable forest resource management. There is no comprehensive data existing on forest fires on a regular basis in Biosphere Reserves of India. The present work have been carried out to locate and estimate the spatial extent of forest burnt areas using Resourcesat-1 data and fire frequency covering decadal fire events (2004–2013) in Similipal Biosphere Reserve. The anomalous quantity of forest burnt area was recorded during 2009 as 1,014.7 km². There was inconsistency in the fire susceptibility across the different vegetation types. The spatial analysis of burnt area shows that an area of 34.2 % of dry deciduous forests, followed by tree savannah, shrub savannah, and grasslands affected by fires in 2013. The analysis based on decadal time scale satellite data reveals that an area of 2,175.9 km² (59.6 % of total vegetation cover) has been affected by varied rate of frequency of forest fires. Fire density pattern indicates low count of burnt area patches in 2013 estimated at 1,017 and high count at 1,916 in 2004. An estimate of fire risk area over a decade identifies 12.2 km² is experiencing an annual fire damage. Summing the fire frequency data across the grids (each 1 km²) indicates 1,211 (26 %) grids are having very high disturbance regimes due to repeated fires in all the 10 years, followed by 711 grids in 9 years and 418 in 8 years and 382 in 7 years. The spatial database offers excellent opportunities to understand the ecological impact of fires on biodiversity and is helpful in formulating conservation action plans.     

成都市2015—2019年臭氧浓度夜间变化及成因分析

利用2015—2019年成都市每日逐时地面O₃监测资料和同期气象数据,通过模拟和计算区域水平、铅直流场和大气静力稳定度支配参数(R_i),对成都市夜间O₃浓度第二峰值的反常现象进行统计分析和原因追踪。研究结果表明:成都市2015—2019年夜间O₃浓度第二峰值出现频率为17%,造成O₃浓度夜间反常现象的原因是雅安市山风将高空O₃输送至地面,而后平流至成都市,或本地高空湍流破坏夜间稳定层,将上层残留层储存的白天高浓度O₃送至近地面,加之夜晚绝大部分污染源停止排放,消耗O₃的物质大幅减少,造成地面O₃浓度的夜间反常变化。引起高空湍流的方式有2种:一是风向切变,且至少切变45°,风向切变角度越大,湍流强度越大,引起残留层向下增长的幅度越大;二是风速切变,且切变层风速要大于上、下层风速2 m/s,切变风速越大,湍流强度就越大,残留层向下增长的幅度就越大,低空急流是风速切变的极端表现。     

Assessing the risk to firefighters from chemical vapors and gases during vehicle fire suppression

Despite the frequent occurrence of vehicle fires, very few studies investigating firefighters' potential inhalation exposures during vehicle fire suppression have been conducted. In this paper, we present an assessment of firefighters' health risk from vehicle fire suppression that accounts for the mixture of gases and vapors likely to be found in these fires. Summa canisters were used to collect emissions from the engine and cabin fires of a single vehicle and were analyzed for 75 volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Firefighters' breathing zone concentrations (BZCs) of aromatic hydrocarbons, aldehydes, isocyanates, and carbon monoxide were measured during the suppression of three vehicle fires. The Summa canister and BZC data were used to develop a simple model for predicting BZCs for the compounds that were not measured in the firefighters' breathing zones. Hazard quotients (HQs) were calculated by dividing the predicted and measured BZCs by the most conservative short-term exposure limits (STELs) or ceiling limits. Hazard indices (HIs) were determined by adding HQs for compounds grouped by the target organ for acute health effects. Any HIs above unity represented unacceptable risks. According to this mixture analysis, the estimated 95(th) percentile of the exposure distribution for the study population represents ≥ 9.2 times the acceptable level of risk to the respiratory tract and eyes. Furthermore, chemicals known or reasonably anticipated to be human carcinogens contributed to > 45% of these HIs. While STELs are not usually based on carcinogenicity, maintaining exposures below STELs may protect individuals from the biological stress that could result from short-term exposures to carcinogens over time. Although vehicle fires are suppressed quickly (<10 min), this assessment suggests that firefighters have the potential to be overexposed to acute toxins during vehicle fire suppression and should therefore wear self-contained breathing apparatus at all times during vehicle fire response.     

Spatial Distribution of Forest Fires and Controlling Factors in Andhra Pradesh, India Using Spot Satellite Datasets

Fires are one of the major causes of forest disturbance and destruction in several dry deciduous forests of southern India. In this study, we use remote sensing data sets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate and socioeconomic factors for determining the potential causes of forest fires in Andhra Pradesh, India. Spatial patterns in fire characteristics were analyzed using SPOT satellite remote sensing datasets. We then used nineteen different metrics in concurrence with fire count datasets in a robust statistical framework to arrive at a predictive model that best explained the variation in fire counts across diverse geographical and climatic gradients. Results suggested that, of all the states in India, fires in Andhra Pradesh constituted nearly 13.53% of total fires. District wise estimates of fire counts for Andhra Pradesh suggested that, Adilabad, Cuddapah, Kurnool, Prakasham and Mehbubnagar had relatively highest number of fires compared to others. Results from statistical analysis suggested that of the nineteen parameters, population density, demand of metabolic energy (DME), compound topographic index, slope, aspect, average temperature of the warmest quarter (ATWQ) along with literacy rate explained 61.1% of total variation in fire datasets. Among these, DME and literacy rate were found to be negative predictors of forest fires. In overall, this study represents the first statewide effort that evaluated the causative factors of fire at district level using biophysical and socioeconomic datasets. Results from this study identify important biophysical and socioeconomic factors for assessing ‘forest fire danger’ in the study area. Our results also identify potential ‘hotspots’ of fire risk, where fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further this study also demonstrate the usefulness of best-subset regression approach integrated with GIS, as an effective method to assess ‘where and when’ forest fires will most likely occur.     

Locating air quality monitoring station using wind impact area diagram

In this study a new methodology is suggested to approximate the impact area downwind of an air pollution source, where air quality monitoring can be carried out to capture the maximum pollutant concentration. Hourly wind speed for a given month is grouped in to different wind speed ranges and the distance of pollutant travel is approximated from the average wind speed of that wind speed range. Since change in wind direction causes the impact distance to rotate, its rotation is approximated by the SD of wind direction change. Using this approach, area or region down wind of a source is determined and plotted. The pattern of monthly change of wind is better represented by the new type of diagram as compared to the wind rose diagram.     

The Relationship between Extreme Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) Concentrations in Dublin's Atmosphere and Meteorological Conditions

A study was carried out to investigate the effects of meteorological conditions on atmospheric Nitrogen Oxide (NOx (Nitrogen Oxide and Nitrogen Dioxide)) concentrations at a site in Dublin. Data used in the study (meteorological conditions and hourly NOx concentrations) were compiled from hourly records for the years 1988-1992. The research identified wind speed, air pressure and wind direction as the most important meteorological parameters for understanding the behaviour of extreme NOx concentrations in Dublin's air. Daily, weekly and seasonal variation in NOx concentrations were observed. This work also highlighted the importance of the role played by general synoptic weather conditions over local climatic effects in extreme events.     

佛山市近地面臭氧污染特征及相关气象因子分析

利用2014年佛山市8个国控大气自动监测点位的O_3监测数据,分析了佛山市的O_3污染特征,结果表明,2014年O_3日最大8 h平均值的第90百分位数为167μg/m~3,O_3为首要污染物的超标天数为43d,占比46.7%;ρ(O_3)区域变化不大;ρ(O_3)月变化呈现"三峰型",全年高ρ(O_3)集中在6—10月份,其中7月份出现全年最高峰值;ρ(O_3)日变化呈单峰型分布,夜间浓度较低且变化平缓,14:00—16:00左右达到峰值,并存在一定的"周末效应",但并不明显;ρ(O_3)与气温呈显著正相关,与湿度、气压、雨量呈显著负相关,与风向、风速的相关性相对较弱;总体上看,高温、低湿、微风、偏南风、低压、无雨的天气条件下高ρ(O_3)更容易出现。     

基于气象条件的太湖湖泛预警研究

2007年5月与2008年5月太湖水域产生的湖泛主要是由蓝藻水华引发的,但是蓝藻水华单纯地在湖湾或岸边浅水区大量堆积并不一定引发湖泛。研究发现,2007年5月与2008年5月的湖泛现象存在相同的触发机制:3d以上时间维持高温(平均气温大于20℃),微风(平均风速小于4m/s),风向基本一致(风向平均绝对偏差小于20°);其后,冷空气过境使得风速短时增大,风向调转180°左右,气温迅速降低,并且这种气象条件持续1d以上。在此研究基础上,给出了切实可行的太湖湖泛预警方案。     

Identification of air pollutant sampling period using horizontal dilution potential

A new model is proposed for estimating horizontal dilution potential of an area using wind data. The mean wind speed and wind direction variation are used as a measure of linear and angular spread of pollutant in the atmosphere. The methodology is applied to monitored hourly wind data for each month of 1 year for wind data collected at Vadodara, Gujarat and monthly dilution potential is estimated. It is found that there is a gradual variation of horizontal dilution potential over a year with limited dilution during post monsoon period i.e., October and November and a high dilution in pre monsoon period i.e., May and June. This information can be used to design air quality sampling network and duration of sampling for source apportionment study. Air pollutant sampling during high dilution period can be carried out for identifying urban and rural dust and wind blown dust from mining activity. Air pollutant sampling during low dilution period can be carried out for capturing large amount of particulate matter from anthropogenic sources like elevated stack of furnace.     

Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis—a case study

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance and environmental concerns in tropical deciduous forests of south India. In this study, we use fuzzy set theory integrated with decision-making algorithm in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to map forest fire risk. Fuzzy set theory implements classes or groupings of data with boundaries that are not sharply defined (i.e., fuzzy) and consists of a rule base, membership functions, and an inference procedure. We used satellite remote sensing datasets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate, and socioeconomic datasets to infer the causative factors of fires. Spatial-level data on these biophysical and socioeconomic parameters have been aggregated at the district level and have been organized in a GIS framework. A participatory multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to arrive at a decision matrix that identified the important causative factors of fires. These expert judgments were then integrated using spatial fuzzy decision-making algorithm to map the forest fire risk. Results from this study were quite useful in identifying potential “hotspots” of fire risk, where forest fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further, this study also demonstrates the potential of multicriteria analysis integrated with GIS as an effective tool in assessing “where and when” forest fires will most likely occur.     

Modeling wastewater discharge at the planning stage of a marine outfall system

The possibility of marine discharge of a negatively buoyant industrial waste was evaluated by a modeling study using Killworth 3-D, which is the first version of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM). The Model was run with the recorded wind direction and speed on the cruise dates and the circulation patterns for surface and subsurface were found to be similar with the current meter measurements. Model scenarios have been set-up in order to estimate the intensity and direction of the currents in the Nemrut Bay under the condition of wind blowing from a definite direction for a long time. MOM model has been run for four major wind directions, each having duration of 10 days and the behavior of the discharge plume in the worst case has been traced. Also, the behavior of the discharge plume in the real case has been estimated by using the wind data of the region. According to the model results, impact of trace elements that compose the discharge effluent is limited both in time and space. It is concluded that trace elements will leave the Bay in a short time due to the short residence times.     

Flow Field and Pollution Dispersion in a Central London Street

Urban pollution due to roadways is perceived as a major obstacle to implementing low-energy ventilation design strategies in urban non-domestic buildings. As part of a project to evaluate the use of a computational fluid flow model as an environmental design tool for urban buildings, this paper seeks to address the impact of pollution from roadways on buildings in areas of restricted topography and assess dominant influencing factors and other requirements for testing the flow model predictions. Vertical profiles of carbon monoxide (CO) and temperature at the facade of a building in a Central London street, in addition to above-roof wind speed and direction, were measured over a period of three months. The street has a height-to-width (h/W) ratio of 0.6 and is of asymmetric horizontal alignment. The air flows in the area surrounding the building were modelled using a computational fluid flow model for two orthogonal wind directions. CO concentrations were calculated from the steady-state flow field in order to place point measurements in the context of the flow field, identify persistent features in the measured data attributable to the flow structure and, by comparison with measurements, identify further testing requirements.Some qualitative and quantitative agreement between measured and modelled data was obtained. Measured CO levels at the building facade and vertical variations of CO were small, as predicted by the model. A wake-interference type flow was predicted by the model for wind speeds >2ms-1 with formation of a vortex cell occurring for roof-level wind speeds >5ms-1 for the cross-wind direction, which was reflected in the measured CO levels and facade gradients. A direction-dependent inverse relationship was noted, both in the model and measurements, between above-roof wind speed and facade CO levels although statistical correlations in the time series were poor. CO concentrations at the facade were found to increase with height frequently, as well as decrease, especially for parallel winds. It is expected that mechanical turbulence due to vehicles was largely responsible. In comparison, thermal stratification appeared to play only a minor role in controlling vertical mixing in the street, under low wind speed conditions.