中国能源安全问题探讨及对策研究

剖析能源安全概念和内涵,分析中国能源安全的严峻形势,指出供给不足、能源结构以煤为主、石油过度依赖进口、能源消费导致的环境污染等问题。针对中国目前的能源安全问题,笔者提出应对措施,具体有4方面对策:提高能源效率、改变我国能源结构;能源进口多元化;建立蛛网式能源供应战略通道,实施石油储备战略;促进环境保护和环境改进。认为只有将能源供应、经济竞争力和环境质量作为国家能源安全的3个基本要素,才可能实现中国的能源安全和可持续发展。     

Environmental stewardship—What does it mean?

Human activities have impacted the environment since the first toolmakers learned to make fire. As the human population has grown and changed, so has our impact on the environment. Currently the world's population is estimated at 6–7 billion, and that number of people, along with the billions of domesticated animals, and their activities, are large enough to have major global and regional impacts. Climate change, declining fish populations in the oceans, and ever decreasing ranges for “wild” ecosystems are the most obvious impacts. Other impacts may be surprising to many people, especially those impacts that are regional and not raised to the level of international concern.This paper will take a very high level look at a number of global, regional and local human interactions with the environment, and how mitigating those impacts requires a very broad and multi-disciplinary response. Examples will focus on water, carbon and energy, all of which are needed for life, as we know it, to exist. Stewardship will be shown to involve determination and monitoring of many key indicators and environmental processes, followed by the tough decisions on how to steward those processes to maintain a healthy environment for all the planet's inhabitants. Stewardship is not easy, and there are few cases where solutions can be neatly divided into good or bad, positive or negative.     

How do different process options and evaluation settings affect economic and environmental assessments? A case study on methyl methacrylate (MMA) production processes

We present an investigation on how economic and environmental assessment results change when different process options or evaluation settings are considered. As the main case study the production technology of methyl methacrylate (MMA) is investigated. Six commercial processes using different reaction routes are modelled and evaluated with respect to their economic and environmental performance. On these six base case models different process options and evaluation settings are considered and the resulting impacts on the assessment results are quantified. Major findings of the study are that the more decision-variables become fixed, the smaller becomes the impact of the decisions still to be taken—but not only with respect to the economic performance but also with regard to the environmental assessment result. Along the process development steps the potential impacts on the economic and environmental performance decrease to the same degree. The results obtained for the evaluation settings do not show such a systematic pattern as those for the process options. This finding indicates that decision makers face many options in the economic and especially the environmental assessment of chemical processes which might lead to quite different magnitudes in variability due to either the choice of method or the choice of method parameters. This paper demonstrates that the resulting variability might be crucial with respect to the decision making outcome.     

环境风险源及其分类方法研究

环境风险源的分类是进行环境风险源识别和监管的基础.已有的以人的安全为主要关注对象的重大危险源管理,对事故的潜在环境危害考虑欠缺,无法体现事故可能产生的环境风险影响.阐明环境风险源的基本概念,比较环境风险源与危险源的区别,针对环境风险源的特点,从环境受体、危害物质状态和风险传播方式3个方面提出了环境风险源的分类方法.实际应用中,环境风险源的分类需综合考虑当地环境管理需求、环境受体状况、主要危害物质类别等,选择合适的分类方法.     

Mechanical characteristics evaluation of biogas micro turbine power systems

As the increase of energy demand, the emission of CO2 is also likely to increase by at least the same amount because energy supply will be based on fossil fuels, which is more apparent in a number of developing countries. With the total global energy environment and rapid increase of domestic and foreign demand, renewable energy is the inevitable energy source for the future. In this context, the micro gas turbines (MGTs) by using bio-energy is being considered as a promising solution. In order to develop the real plant system of those technologies such as 60 kW-class micro gas turbine by using swine biogas, we finished the optimal design and construction for a biomass fueled MGT system. This paper consists of 1) MGT system design for swine bio gas 2) material evaluation for bio gas piping 3) computational fluid dynamics analysis for bio gas sulfur removal tower and sulfur absorption filter 4) the fundamental modeling using manufacturer's technical specifications and performance simulation by PEPSE-GT 5) field test and application of bio gas micro gas turbine. Finally, I established to set up the top-notched distributed power system design and optimal application.     

城市供水管网脆弱性评价研究进展

脆弱性评价有助于甄别城市供水管网的薄弱环节,确定合理的风险削减措施,保证供水安全。阐述脆弱性的有关定义及其与风险的联系与区别,回顾城市供水管网脆弱性评价的发展历程,介绍几种脆弱性评价方法的基本原理、优缺点及适用范围,并按不同评价思路对国内外使用的主要脆弱性评价方法进行分类总结。研究发现,目前尚未形成统一的脆弱性概念及切实可行的评价方法,今后应不断完善和整合各类方法,以定量和通用为核心,使城市供水管网脆弱性评价方法更为实用、有效。     

Towards a European energy risks monitor to consistently map safety and security risks of different energy infrastructures

After mapping of current European Union regulations on the management of accident risks related to natural hazards and different industrial activities, this paper discusses insights from past and current European Commission initiatives on harmonisation of assessment and management of safety risks. The problem of safety comparison and risk/benefit communication is of critical importance for sustainable decision making. For the specific case of the energy sector, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) and DG TREN (Directorate General for Transport and Energy) have recently started two connected initiatives, called energy risks monitor (ERMON) and safety and security of energy infrastructures in a comparative view (SEIF-CV). While ERMON deals with the development of a methodology and corresponding web-based information system to cross-compare in a consistent way safety, risk and reliability performances of different energy systems (fossil, nuclear, renewables) across their specific fuel cycle chains, SEIF-CV creates a corresponding network of stakeholders in the energy sector as well as the necessary review and user panels for ERMON. Objectives and status of ERMON and SEIF-CV are described.     

污染影响型土壤环境影响评价过程中预测和评价方法

随着国民经济的持续发展,建设项目开发过程中可能造成土壤本身或与之相关的环境要素之间在物质、能量转移循环过程中受到不同程度的影响。以《环境影响评价技术导则土壤环境》(HJ 964-2018)为依据,对污染型土壤环境进行环境影响评价,为建设项目土壤环境保护提供科学依据。     

铁路环保选线方法及评价体系研究

环保选线是铁路勘察设计工作的重要内容,但目前环保选线的方法和评价体系尚未完全建立。以我国北方地区某新建铁路穿越城区段工程为例,识别并筛选了影响线路方案的环境因素,探讨建立涉及环境敏感区、城市规划区、既有车站的环保选线方法和评价体系;并将该方法体系运用于线路方案环境比选研究。研究结果表明,该评价体系可以较清晰地反映不同方案在环境敏感性、规划相容性、工程可实施性、施工期环境影响、运营期噪声影响等方面的优劣,可以为铁路环保选线、环境可行性分析、环境影响评价等工作提供参考和思路。     

Risk analysis of Chongqing urban rail transit network

Urban rail network safety is a critical sector of urban public safety. However, there is no uniform standard for the safety evaluation of the urban rail network. This paper presents a novel methodology by integrating a multilevel decision tree with a fuzzy analytical approach to enhance urban rail network safety. The proposed methodology overcomes serious limitations such as subjectivity in the data and independence of the variables in decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is applied to the risk evaluation of the selected Chongqing rail transit lines and the Expo Line. The risk analysis is considered using the field data collected from these transit lines. The applied case studies confirm the general applicability of the methodology and the multilevel decision tree network. The main risk factors identified for the Chongqing rail traffic system are the terrorist threat, emergency management, and aging infrastructure which need to be investigated as a priority to mitigate risk associated with these infrastructures.     

人工神经网络方法在拟建小区域环境质量评价中的应用

人工神经网络的评价方法用于小区域环境质量评价中,根据本地区特点因地制宜地选择环境质量参数,代入模型中进行环境质量评价及预测,对用于环境质量评价的BP人工神经网络模型进行了改进,即对网络模型的训练样本进行了扩充,从而提高了模型的抗干扰能力和准确性.将改进了的BP人工神经网络模型应用于四川省资阳市沱江二桥拟建项目小区域的大气、地表水环境质量评价中, 对该市小区域大气、地表水环境质量状况进行评价,评价结果表明,BP人工神经网络模型用于环境质量评价是可行的,且评价结论客观,评价模型普遍适用.     

Effluent stream treatment in a nitrogenous fertilizer factory: An exergy analysis for process integration

The industrial processes used for the production of nitrogenous fertilizers are the main generators of reactive nitrogen compounds, chemicals and effluents that ultimately impact the biosphere. Exergy analysis has been performed to a nitrogen fertilizer factory in the State of Bahia, Brazil, where the Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation (Anammox) and other physical–chemical processes are used to partially or totally handle the feed streams normally sent to a stripping tower.The results showed that the combined use of physical–chemical and biological process can improve the overall exergetic efficiency and avoid the emission of reactive compounds to the atmosphere allowing the recovery of the condensate lost as effluent, so that it can be reincorporated in the production of steam network, increasing energy efficiency and environmental performance of the process.     

珠三角地区水环境承载力综合评价模型研究

针对珠三角地区水环境承载力问题进行研究,从区域水环境承载力所涉及的水资源系统、供水用水系统、水环境污染系统、社会和经济系统、各产业用水指标等多个领域中选取多个指标,构建区域水环境承载力的评价指标体系,利用基于粗糙集理论的属性约简法对指标进行约简,得到较为精简的指标体系;利用Topsis评价法对区域水环境承载力进行了评价,分析了珠三角地区八个城市的水环境承载力,为区域水环境的管理和水污染的控制提供理论基础。     

人工神经网络模型在地震安全评价中的应用

地震影响系数是地震安全评价的一个重要参数 ,其分布受到场地条件和基岩条件的共同影响 ,对场地影响的考虑相对比较成熟 ,对基岩的影响则相对考虑较少 ,难以满足城市和重大工程设防的要求。综合考虑基岩条件和场地条件的地震影响系数计算 ,关键在于确定基岩裂缝、能量、位移、场地等指标的分布与地震影响系数之间的关系 ,由于这种非线性关系需要构建多元非线性模型 ,故通过应用人工神经网络方法 ,得到地震影响系数计算模型。以唐山市为实例 ,进行了计算并分析了计算结果 ,为城市规划和工程建设提出了几点建议     

Distributed generation by energy from waste technology: A life cycle perspective

Municipal Solid Waste in general and its organic fraction in particular is a potential renewable and non-seasonal resource. In this work, a life cycle assessment has been performed to evaluate the environmental impacts of two future scenarios using biogas produced from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) to supply energy to a group of dwellings, respectively comprising distributed generation using solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) micro-CHP systems and condensing boilers. The London Borough of Greenwich is taken as the reference case study. The system is designed to assess how much energy demand can be met and what is the best way to use the digestible waste for distributed energy purposes.The system is compared with two alternative scenarios fuelled by natural gas: a reference scenario, where the electricity is supplied by the grid and the heat is supplied from condensing boilers, and a fuel cell micro-CHP system. The results show that, although OFMSW alone can only supply between 1% and 4% of the total energy demand of the Borough, a saving of ∼130 tonnes of CO₂ eq per year per dwelling equipped with micro-CHP is still achievable compared with the reference scenario. This is primarily due to the surplus electricity produced by the fuel cell when the micro-CHP unit is operated to meet the heat demand. Use of biogas to produce heat only is therefore a less desirable option compared with combined heat and power production. Further investigation is required to identify locally available feedstock other than OFMSW in order to increase the proportion of energy demand that can be met in this way.     

Using game theory to describe strategy selection for environmental risk and carbon emissions reduction in the green supply chain

This paper provides an approach in the context of green supply chain management, using game theory to analyze the strategies selected by manufacturers to reduce life cycle environmental risk of materials and carbon emissions. Through the application of the ‘tolerability of risk’ concept, a basis for determining the extent of environmental risk and carbon emissions reduction has been established. Currently, scant attention is given to holistic supervision of the supply chain with respect to carbon emissions by governments, and thus the starting hypothesis here is that the default strategy that manufacturers will adopt is only to reduce carbon emissions, and thereby environmental risk, in so far as this is compatible with the aim of increasing revenue. Moreover, we further hypothesize that, once necessary governmental policy has been established in the supply chain management, the strategic choices of the manufacturers would be influenced by government penalties or incentives. A case example is provided to demonstrate the insight that indicates the application of game theory. The limitations of the game model and analysis are discussed, laying a foundation for further work.     

雾霾天气背景下大气环境监测质量的提升路径研究

本文主要针对雾霾天气背景下大气环境监测质量的提升路径展开深入研究,先阐述了大气环境监测质量的提升重要性,比如有利于提高环境污染的防治水平、有利于不断提高城市环境规划水平等,然后重点提出了几点可行的提升路径,主要包括制定大气环境监测质量保障体系、加强环境质量监测网络建设、加强大气环境监测采样管理、加强3S技术的应用、加强监测监察联动协调机制、扩大大气环境质量评价范围等,确保监测数据与完整性和准确性相符,确保大气环境监测质量的稳步提升,以创建节能减排、生态环保的节约型社会。     

基于贝叶斯网络的高速动车组运营故障分析

为研究影响高速动车组正常运行的各故障因素间的因果关系,分析其耦合强度,将故障因素分为人、机、环3类,从系统角度又将机器因素分为5个子系统。人、机、环3类共识别27个故障因素;使用K2算法生成贝叶斯网络结构,引入扩展因果效应算法确定节点优先次序作为K2算法的先验知识,采用EM算法学习贝叶斯网络参数,构建基于贝叶斯网络的高速动车组运营故障分析模型;以209个CRH详细故障报告为例,对故障因素的故障发生概率进行排序并分析因素间的影响强度和灵敏度。结果表明:牵引供电系统故障发生概率较高;车门系统故障、牵引变流器故障易由内部零件故障引起,外界异物击打对受电弓影响较大;人、环因素更易引起多故障耦合;环境因素对牵引供电系统表现出较高的灵敏度。贝叶斯网络在分析高速动车组运营系统故障问题上具有可行性,分析结果有助于提升运营单位的管控能力。     

Improving the sustainability of the production of biodiesel from oilseed rape in the UK

Owing to concerns about energy security and because of increased environmental awareness, the biofuel industry is expanding worldwide. It is therefore extremely important to be able to quantify the sustainability of biofuels in order to determine their benefits over using conventional fossil fuel derived transport fuels. This study investigates the total energy requirement and global warming potential (GWP) of the production of biodiesel from oilseed rape in the UK, using life cycle analyses. Large- and small-scale productions are compared and the sensitivity of these environmental impacts to production variables investigated. Possible changes to the processes are considered, with a view to reduce the energy requirement and global warming potential.This research shows that the scale of the production of biodiesel from oilseed rape in the UK, and the transport involved in the various stages of manufacture, has little effect on its global warming potential. It is also shown that if the rape meal and glycerol were combusted in combined heat and power plants, and the rate of application of nitrogenous fertiliser were reduced from 211 kg/ha to 100 kg/ha, the energy requirement and global warming potential savings from using biodiesel rather than ultra low sulphur diesel would increase dramatically, to 170% and 120%, respectively, on a basis of equivalent net energy content.     

环境因素对供应链中生产者食品安全行为的影响机制仿真分析

通过食品安全环境因素的改善和规范,来提高食品安全效果是具有现实意义的。本文归纳了影响食品安全的环境因素,特别是影响生产者食品安全行为的环境因素;环境因素对供应链食品安全的影响主要体现在生产者食品安全行为的选择上,为此,设计了环境因素对供应链生产者食品安全行为影响机制;为了分析环境因素对供应链中生产者食品安全的影响,从生产者食品安全行为的影响机制中选取了消费者食品安全意愿、生产者市场占有率、罚款金额等环境因素,以生鲜蔬果供应链中覆盖流通领域的那个部分提出了生产者食品安全行为选择策略的仿真模型,使用Netlogo软件进行了多主体仿真。通过仿真发现,食品监管的手法还宜细化,提升技术因素可以有效改善中国的食品安全水平。