A model for estimating the impact of the domino effect on accident frequencies in quantitative risk assessments of storage facilities

It is well known that the domino effect can have a major impact on accidents in storage facilities, as it can increase the consequences of an initial event considerably. However, quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) do not usually take the domino effect into account in a detailed, systematic way, mostly because of its complexity and the difficulties involved in its incorporation. We have developed a simple method to include the domino effect in QRAs of storage facilities, by estimating the frequency with which new accidents will occur due to this phenomenon. The method has been programmed and implemented in two case studies. The results show that it can indeed be used to include the possibility of domino effect occurrence in a QRA. Furthermore, depending on the design of a facility, the domino effect can have a significant effect on the associated risk.     

基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估*

为了更好地降低化工企业罐区事故造成多米诺效应的风险,提出1种基于保护层分析（LOPA）的定量风险评估程序。首先,阐述基于保护层分析(LOPA)逻辑的多米诺定量风险评估流程,即引入包括可用性、有效性及3种逻辑门定义及量化的安全屏障定量评估;然后,利用LOPA的分析逻辑将安全屏障融入多米诺定量风险评估框架中;最后,选取2×2 000 m3苯乙烯罐区为对象,识别防火层与喷淋冷却系统2种安全屏障并开展基于LOPA逻辑的罐区多米诺效应定量风险评估,得出安全屏障能有效地降低多米诺事故发生频率及罐区个人风险的结论。研究结果表明:该分析方法可为化工企业开展多米诺效应定量风险评估提供参考。     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

化学工业重大事故的多米诺效应分析

针对化学工业重大事故多米诺效应的严重后果,进行重大事故多米诺效应发生规律的研究。在指出触发重大事故多米诺效应发生条件和发生模式的基础上,设计重大事故多米诺效应的研究程序。借助生成重大火灾爆炸事故场景和其后果分析方法,建立多米诺效应概率分析的数学模型,利用VB开发了多米诺效应计算软件DOMISOFWARE,解决较为复杂的重大事故多米诺效应概率的计算问题。研究表明,爆炸事故总是较火灾事故具有更高触发多米诺效应的可能性,并且火灾和爆炸触发加压设备发生多米诺效应的概率与常压设备相比随间距增大几乎呈线性下降;确定了爆炸和火灾触发多米诺效应的概率和临界距离。研究结果对于化工装置的安全设计和重大事故的预防控制具有重要的指导意义。     

基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价研究

多米诺效应是引发化工重大事故的主要原因之一.本文综合国内外的研究成果,对火灾热辐射、冲击波超压等造成的多米诺效应进行了深入分析,建立基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价模型,其中包括了评价流程、传播概率、阈值距离计算、多米诺效应对事故频率的影响及后果分析的内容.最后利用Matlab7.1计算平台,以汽油储罐进行实例分析,结果表明该方法是一种适用于多米诺效应定量评价的良好方法,能够比较科学、有效的对危险单元进行风险评价,使重大事故风险评价更切合实际,为政府监管部门和化工企业进行事故的控制和预防提供决策技术.     

基于贝叶斯网络的事故多级多米诺效应计算方法研究

为了更合理地分析事故风险,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的多级多米诺效应计算方法及其计算步骤,并从个人风险和社会风险2个角度,定量分析了生产安全事故的多级多米诺效应。同时以某企业的2个汽油罐区为例,运用上述方法对其生产安全事故的多米诺效应进行定量计算,并将计算结果与未考虑多米诺效应、仅考虑一级多米诺效应时的计算结果进行比较。研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的计算方法,同时考虑了多级多米诺效应和事故的协同效应,可以使计算的个人风险和社会风险更接近于实际。     

Research on three-dimensional visualization system of Natech events triggered domino accidents in oil-gas depots

Natech events and domino accidents happen worldwide and usually lead to severe consequences, especially in hazardous areas such as Oil-Gas depots. With the continuous development of the Oil-Gas industry and information technology, it is essential to realize the three-dimensional management and monitoring of hazardous substances. To evaluate the consequences caused by Natech events triggered domino accidents (accident chain), a matrix loop method was proposed to calculate the probability and evolution path of the accident chain. The actual layout and the real-time data of the Oil-Gas depot are input into the evaluation method in matrices, thus making the results reliable and updated. Besides, a B/S architecture system is developed to present the evaluation consequences of the proposed method. The three-dimensional visualization effects of natural disasters, technological accidents and the dynamic propagation process of the accident chain are also realized in the system to enhance the user's experience. A system application regarding lightning-triggered domino accidents was carried out to demonstrate the feasibility and rapidity of the proposed evaluation method and perform the system's operation process and visualization effects. The application results show that the system can provide effective decision-making assistance to safety management workers before the accident and guidance for emergency rescue operations during the accident.     

质子交换膜燃料电池电站多米诺事故概率和风险研究

为探究氢能电站火灾爆炸事故发展规律,采用多米诺效应对电站进行事故概率和风险研究,建立氢能电站多米诺效应定量风险分析模型。基于设备受损概率模型与多米诺理论基础,提出氢能电站多米诺效应概率计算方法,并将方法运用到实际案例,结合SAFETI软件对具体多米诺事故场景进行定量计算。研究结果表明：氢能电站易发生多米诺事故,考虑一级多米诺效应后人员潜在死亡概率增加56%。研究结果可为制定氢能电站安全防控措施以及降低火灾爆炸事故对人员和设备的危害提供依据。     

Application of a multi-plant QRA: A case study investigating the risk impact of the construction of a new plant on an existing chemical plant's risk levels

The construction of chemical clusters whereby a variety of chemical plants are located next to each other provides great economic benefits. However, in such clusters, due to the mere scale on which hazardous materials are processed, stored and handled, the potential of various accidents is much higher than in single companies. Furthermore, the close proximity of process installations and storage tanks in such areas gives rise to the risk of domino effects. Therefore, land use planning and layout design has always been a challenge within such clusters.In this paper, a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is carried out and used as a decision making tool to evaluate the acceptability of constructing a new chemical plant adjacent to an existing one. For this purpose, standard parameters such as individual risk and societal risk were quantified, before and after the new plant would come into operation. Given the experience of past accidents in the process industries, the likelihood of domino accidents in the two neighboring plants has also been analyzed.     

化工储罐区池火灾多米诺效应风险评估

化工储罐区储罐数量较多且集中,一旦发生事故很可能诱发多米诺效应造成灾难性的后果。在分析池火灾多米诺效应作用模式的基础上,建立了池火灾多米诺效应风险评估模型,并对某化工储罐区进行了实例计算,分析了单一储罐池火灾事故引发其他储罐池火灾的风险。分析结果表明,池火灾是诱发化工储罐多米诺事故的重要因素,且会造成风险的显著增加,但并非所有的池火灾事故都会诱发多米诺效应。此外,将多米诺效应评价方法应用于化工储罐池火灾事故风险评估中可有效地预测次生事故的发生概率和后果,从而提出针对性措施。     

Underground parallel pipelines domino effect: An analysis based on pipeline crater models and historical accidents

This paper focuses on the analysis of the possibility of domino effect in underground parallel pipelines relying on historical accident data and pipeline crater models. An underground pipeline can be considered as safe following an accident with an adjacent gas or liquefied pipeline when it remains outside the ground crater generated. In order to prevent the domino effect in these cases, the design of parallel pipelines has to consider adequate pipeline separations based on the crater width, which is one of the widely used methods in engineering applications. The objective of this work is the analysis of underground petroleum product pipelines ruptures with the formation of a ground crater as well as the evaluation of possible domino effects in these cases. A detailed literature survey has been carried out to review existing crater models along with a historical analysis of past accidents. A FORTRAN code has been implemented to assess the performance of the Gasunie, the Batelle and the Advantica crater models. In addition to this, a novel Accident-Based crater model has been presented, which allows the prediction of the crater width as a function of the relevant design pipeline parameters as well as the soil density. Modifications have also been made to the Batelle and Accident-Based models in order to overcome the underestimation of the crater width. The calculated crater widths have been compared with real accident data and the performance evaluation showed that the proposed Accident-Based model has a better performance compared to other models studied in this work. The analysis of forty-eight past accidents indicated a major potential of underground parallel pipelines domino effect which is proven by two real cases taken from the literature. Relying on the investigated accidents, the crater width was smaller than or equal to 20 m in most cases indicating that the definition of underground pipeline separations at around 10 m would be sufficient to ensure a small probability of the domino effect.     

Optimal Assignments of Allocating and Scheduling Emergency Resources to Accidents in Chemical Industrial Parks

Accidents in chemical industrial parks can result in mass casualties and the risk usually escalates due to domino effects. However, most of the existing models of emergency logistics do not account for domino effect and may be unsuitable for emergency response to accidents in chemical industrial parks. This paper presents a mathematical model proposed for optimal assignments of allocating and scheduling emergency resources for rescuing victims and preventing accident spreading simultaneously. The detailed characteristics of accident scenarios and emergency resources are taken into account. Based on this, the efficiency of emergency response is evaluated by the total number of fatalities and the amount of losses caused by domino effects which are the optimal objectives of the model. A numerical case study was conducted by solving the model using a designed heuristic algorithm. The results showed the applicability and reliability of the proposed model for making optimal assignments for emergency response to accidents in chemical industrial parks.     

Calculating the life extension achieved by reducing nuclear accident frequency

Improvements in nuclear safety are often achieved through introducing a new safety measure that reduces the frequency of a hazardous accident rather than its consequences. To carry out a J-value analysis, it is necessary to calculate how a reduction in accident frequency extends the life expectancy of the potentially exposed group of people. The paper presents two methods for calculating the loss of life expectancy associated with accidents of a certain severity occurring with a defined frequency. The first begins by using an equivalent, prolonged radiation exposure to represent the effects of the accident occurring once per year over the given period of operation. The resultant loss of life expectancy is then scaled by multiplying by the frequency of occurrence. The second method calculates the loss of life expectancy brought about by a single accident occurring during the given period of operation and scales this by multiplying by both the length of the operational period and the frequency of occurrence. Results derived using the first method show that there is a relatively small effect on loss of life expectancy per accident if several accidents are assumed to occur during a typical period of operation. This conclusion permits a simple assessment of the effect of possible, multiple accidents. The accuracy of the second method is found not to be compromised materially by ignoring the possibility of multiple accidents. The second method is shown to be slightly more conservative than the first, and also somewhat more accurate. Calculations of the loss of life expectancy may be carried out before and after the new safety improvement has been implemented, and the difference between the two results will be the life extension brought about by the new safety measure.     

多米诺效应的风险分析方法

介绍与分析多米诺效应的相关研究,并针对多米诺效应的定量风险分析,建立了从多米诺场景辨识到后果分析的多米诺效应定量分析方法.通过分析初始事故带来的物理效应对邻近设备的影响,计算了二次设备的损坏概率;分析了多米诺场景,计算了多米诺事故频率,并根据多米诺事故的后果得到个人风险和社会风险曲线.多米诺效应的风险是工业区一个潜在的严重风险,加强多米诺效应的研究对工厂和工业区的安全管理与规划都有重要意义.     

DomPrevPlanning: User-friendly software for planning domino effects prevention

Chains of accidents, in literature generally referred to as domino effects, knock-on effects, cascade effects or escalation effects occur very infrequently but with disastrous consequences. There exist very few software packages to study such domino accidents in complex industrial areas and to forecast potential catastrophes caused by secondary order (involving a sequence of three installations submitted to two consecutive accidents), tertiary order or even higher order accidents. Moreover, available domino software focuses on risk assessment and on consequence assessment. None of these toolkits specifically addresses the prioritization of installation sequences in an industrial area in order to facilitate objective prevention decisions about domino effects. This paper describes the application of a new computer-automated tool designed to support decision-making on preventive and protective measures to alleviate domino effects in a complex surrounding of chemical installations. Using a holistic approach and thus looking at the entire industrial area as a whole, all sequences of three installations in the area are ranked according to their danger contribution to domino effects. An example of a cluster of chemical plants demonstrates the level of qualitative and quantitative input data required. The example is also used to explain the toolkit results, as well as the surplus value and the benefits for company safety managers and regulators.     

Domino effect in process-industry accidents - An inventory of past events and identification of some patterns

The paper presents an inventory, perhaps the most comprehensive till date, of the major process-industry accidents involving ‘domino effect’. The inventory includes, among other relevant information, the sequence of accidents that had occurred in each domino episode. The information has been analyzed to identify several patterns which may be useful in further work on understanding domino effect and reducing the probability of its occurrence in future. A concept of ‘local domino effect’ has been introduced.     

危险品区多米诺效应的风险分析

根据多米诺效应的特点,提出了一种针对危险品区域的多米诺效应的风险分析方法.通过多米诺效应事故场景的辨识、设备的概率损坏模型和多米诺分析技术,分析区域内所有危险设备的多米诺效应风险指数和设备在多米诺事故链中的传播作用,定量分析多米诺事故后果.通过该方法可以得到区域内设备的多米诺效应风险指数和多米诺事故的后果风险.通过该方法可建立起区域的安全防范措施,从而有效预防潜在的多米诺效应,降低事故风险.     

Developing an external domino accident prevention framework: Hazwim

Empirical research on major accident safety in the second largest chemical cluster worldwide, the Antwerp port area, supports the design of a meta-technical framework for optimizing external domino prevention. First, the majority of Seveso top tier companies have expressed a willingness to cooperate more intensively to protect themselves against potential off-site major accidents. Second, Hazop, What–If analysis and the Risk Matrix, interesting building blocks for such a framework, are frequently used risk analysis techniques at Seveso lower tier and Seveso top tier companies. The developed framework, called Hazwim, integrates these three complementary techniques into an effective standardized risk analysis framework for the prevention of external xdomino accidents in an industrial area. The main strengths of Hazwim are its completeness and its cost-effectiveness. The combination of techniques on the one hand and qualitative and quantitative data on the other, offers a comprehensive up-to-date list of cross-company domino hazards and recommended actions in the area under consideration. The Hazwim framework offers support to prevention managers and safety policy makers concerning external domino prevention.     

Quantitative risk assessment of domino effect in Natech scenarios triggered by lightning

Lightning strike is the natural event more frequency causing Natech accidents involving atmospheric storage tanks. Despite the resulting fires have usually limited severity and only local effects, domino effect may cause the escalation of these primary events, possibly affecting nearby pressurized storages and process equipment, thus resulting in relevant increase in the potential area impacted. A methodology was developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effects caused by Natech accidents triggered by lightning. A comprehensive procedure was obtained, tailoring lightning risk assessment to include probabilistic models for domino escalation based on probit approach and combinatorial analysis. The methodology was applied to a case-study to evidence the shift in risk figures due to domino effect and the credibility of the secondary domino scenarios. The results of the case-study show that an increase up to two orders of magnitude with respect to risk calculated for conventional scenarios is possible when considering lightning-induced Natech primary scenarios and their escalation.     

基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析

针对近年来不断发生的输油管道重大事故,引入多米诺效应理论分析输油管道事故后果。首先依据多米诺效应机理,建立输油管道重大事故多米诺效应模型,然后采用PHAST软件确定初始事故影响范围,运用设备损坏概率和人员伤亡概率模型计算初始事故对周围设备和个体的影响概率,从而可以从设备损坏、人员伤亡和事故影响范围三个方面定量分析输油管道的事故后果。研究结果对制定输油管道重大事故应急抢险方案,避免事故影响范围进一步扩大具有理论指导意义。