Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought1

Polebitski, Austin S. and Richard N. Palmer, 2012. Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00691.x Abstract: This research investigates customer response to demand management strategies during two drought periods in the City of Seattle. An analysis of customer response to voluntary water curtailments is conducted using k‐means clustering to identify like groups of customers and behavior patterns. The clustering method identified important variables (household income, lot size, living space, and family size) useful in determining customer response to water curtailments. Ordinary least squares and spatial lag regression models are estimated using the first and second principal components of variables identified in the clustering analysis. Larger values of income, lot size, and living space enhanced water reductions whereas larger family size tended to reduce the effectiveness of curtailments. Projections of changes in Seattle’s built environment and demographics between 2000 and 2030 were obtained from an urban simulation model (UrbanSim) and were processed through the regression models to investigate changes in future curtailment effectiveness. This research found that increasing household size hardened demands (decreased curtailment effectiveness) whereas decreasing household size increased per‐capita curtailment effectiveness. These results suggest that changes in the number of residents within a home is likely to be the most important factor in determining future curtailment effectiveness.     

Barriers to Water Conservation in the Rio Grande Basin1

Abstract: The Rio Grande basin shares problems faced by many arid regions of the world: growing and competing demands for water and river flows and uses that are vulnerable to drought and climate change. In recent years legislation, administrative action, and other measures have emerged to encourage private investment in efficient agricultural water use. Nevertheless, several institutional barriers discourage irrigators from investing in water conservation measures. This article examines barriers to agricultural water conservation in the Rio Grande basin and identifies challenges and opportunities for promoting it. Several barriers to water conservation are identified: clouded titles, water transfer restrictions, illusory water savings, insecure rights to conserved water, shared carry‐over storage, interstate compacts, conservation attitudes, land tenure arrangements, and an uncertain duty of water. Based on data on water use and crop production costs, price is found to be a major factor influencing water conservation. A low water price discourages water conservation even if other institutions promote it. A high price of water encourages conservation even in the presence of other discouraging factors. In conclusion, water‐conserving policies can be more effectively implemented where water institutions and programs are designed to be compatible with water’s underlying economic scarcity.     

Finding Water for Growth: New Sources,New Tools,New Challenges1

Abstract: Rapidly growing regions such as the western United States face difficult challenges in mobilizing new water supplies to meet new demands. Environmental concerns have curtailed the scope for large new surface storage projects, and widespread basin overdraft has limited ground water’s potential as a source of expansion. Drawing on the California experience, this article explores modern water planning approaches, which focus on a portfolio of options including nontraditional sources (recycling, desalination, underground storage) and more efficient use of existing supplies (conservation and water marketing). It reviews the advantages and drawbacks of the elements of the portfolio, provides examples of innovative planning approaches, and assesses the role for supportive government policies.     

A Retrospective Look at the Water Resource Management Policies in Nassau County,Long Island,New York1

Abstract: The residents of Nassau County Long Island, New York receive all of their potable drinking water from the Upper Glacial, Jameco/Magothy (Magothy), North Shore, and Lloyd aquifers. As the population of Nassau County grew from 1930 to 1970, the demand on the ground‐water resources also grew. However, no one was looking at the potential impact of withdrawing up to 180 mgd (7.9 m³/s) by over 50 independent water purveyors. Some coastal community wells on the north and south shores of Nassau County were being impacted by saltwater intrusion. The New York State Legislature formed a commission to look into the water resources in 1972. The commission projected extensive population growth and a corresponding increase in pumping resulting in a projected 93.5 to 123 mgd (4.1 to 5.5 m³/s) deficit by 2000. In 1986, the New York Legislature passed legislation to strengthen the well permit program and also establish a moratorium on new withdrawals from the Lloyd aquifer to protect the coastal community’s only remaining supply of drinking water. Over 30 years has passed since the New York Legislature made these population and pumping projections and it is time to take a look at the accuracy of the projections that led to the moratorium. United States Census data shows that the population of Nassau County did not increase but decreased from 1970 to 2000. Records show that pumping in Nassau County was relatively stable fluctuating between 170 and 200 mgd (7.5 to 8.8 m³/s) from 1970 to 2004, well below the projection of 242 to 321 mgd (10.6 to 14.1 m³/s). Therefore, the population and water demand never grew to projected values and the projected threat to the coastal communities has diminished. With a stable population and water demand, its time to take a fresh look at proactive ground‐water resource management in Nassau County. One example of proactive ground‐water management that is being considered in New Jersey where conditions are similar uses a ground‐water flow model to balance ground water withdrawals, an interconnection model to match supply with demand using available interconnections, and a hydraulic model to balance flow in water mains. New Jersey also conducted an interconnection study to look into how systems with excess capacity could be used to balance withdrawals in stressed aquifer areas with withdrawals in unstressed areas. Using these proactive ground‐water management tools, ground‐water extraction could be balanced across Nassau County to mitigate potential impacts from saltwater intrusion and provide most water purveyors with a redundant supply that could be used during water emergencies.     

A Level‐of‐Service Concept for Planning Future Water Supply Projects under Probabilistic Demand and Supply Framework

One of the most challenging tasks of water supply utilities is planning the timing and quantity of new water supply sources as demand for water consumption grows. Many water supply utilities target on meeting 100% of their customers' needs based on scenario‐based deterministic demand projections numbers even though there are uncertainties in both supply and demand values. This may result in under or overly conservative approach in assessing future needs. In this article, a level‐of‐service concept is introduced to capture a utility's willingness to accept a given level of risk, plan for it, and invoke a management strategy during extreme events than build a facility to accommodate those in planning for new water supply sources. Accounting for uncertainties in both supply and demand help quantify reliability by achieving a prescribed level of service. The major benefit of such an approach for planning future water supply is that it allows policy makers to evaluate the use of adaptive water management strategies and develop supply in an incremental fashion as demand warrants it. For example, if a given level of service cannot be reliably met with the existing system at a future time t, an incremental water supply project would come online to bring the required reliability level up but no more.     

Rain Water Harvesting in Bermuda1

Rowe, Mark P., 2011. Rain Water Harvesting in Bermuda. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1219–1227. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00563.x Abstract: Roof‐top rain water harvesting is mandated by law for all buildings in Bermuda and is the primary source of water for domestic supply. The average rate at which rain water is harvested at the typical house with four occupants is, however, insufficient to meet average demand. While just over one‐third of households have access to supplementary water either from mains pipelines or private wells, the majority rely on deliveries from water “truckers” (tankers) to augment their rain water supply. Assuming a reasonably constant daily demand, there is a linear relationship between the “maximum optimum capacity” of a water storage tank and the size of the rain water catchment area, which depends on the characteristics of the rainfall at a given geographic location. A simple spreadsheet model was developed to simulate tank storage levels for various combinations of catchment area, tank capacity, and demand, with an input of actual daily rainfall data for a study period of nearly three years. It was found that for typical cycles of rainfall surpluses and deficits in Bermuda, the tank capacity which there is no benefit in exceeding — the “optimum maximum capacity”— is 0.37 m³ of storage capacity per 1 m² of catchment area. Furthermore, it was concluded that many domestic water storage tanks in Bermuda are larger than necessary, especially so where there is a significant imbalance between rain water supply and demand.     

Water Balances of Two Piedmont Headwater Catchments: Implications for Regional Hydrologic Landscape Classification

In the Piedmont of North Carolina, a traditionally water‐rich region, reservoirs that serve over 1 million people are under increasing pressure due to naturally occurring droughts and increasing land development. Innovative development approaches aim to maintain hydrologic conditions of the undisturbed landscape, but are based on insufficient target information. This study uses the hydrologic landscape concept to evaluate reference hydrology in small headwater catchments surrounding Falls Lake, a reservoir serving Raleigh and the greater Triangle area. Researchers collected one year of detailed data on water balance components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and shallow subsurface storage from two headwater catchments representative of two hydrologic landscapes defined by differences in soils and topographic characteristics. The two catchments are similar in size and lie within the same physiographic region, and during the study period they showed similar water balances of 26‐30% Q, ?4 to 5% ΔS, 59‐65% evapotranspiration, and 9‐10% G. However, the steeper, more elevated catchment exhibited perennial streamflow and nongrowing season runoff ratios (Q/P) of 33%, whereas the flat, low‐lying stream was drier during the growing season and exhibited Q/P ratios of 52% during the nongrowing season. A hydrologic landscape defined by topography and soil characteristics helps characterize local‐scale reference hydrology and may contribute to better land management decisions.     

Climate and Water Conflicts Coevolution from Tropical Development and Hydro‐Climatic Perspectives: A Case Study of Costa Rica

Costa Rica is a nation with a vast wealth of water resources; however, recently the country has faced water conflicts (WC) due to social, economic, legal, and political impediments in response to limited water availability during El Niño events and inefficient use of its water resources. This study presents a spatial distribution and temporal analysis of WC in Costa Rica from 2005 to 2015. In total, 719 WC were analyzed of which 54% were among private individuals and government. The largest urban areas and the Grande de Tárcoles Basin were identified as the main “hot spot” for the conflicts. WC were mainly caused by spills of wastewater, water pollution, water shortage, infrastructure damage, and flooding, and can be predicted using a multiple linear model including the population size and the number of hydro‐meteorological events (HME) (R² = 0.77). The identified HME also coevolved significantly with the changes in precipitation regimes (r = 0.67, p = 0.021). Our results suggest that there is a need to recognize that water infrastructure longevity across the country concatenates and amplifies WC, mainly in the most populated area located in the Central Valley. Implications of our findings include the need for truly integrated water resources management plans that include, for example, WC as indicators of hydro‐climatic changing conditions and water supply and sanitation infrastructure status.     

WATER SUPPLY AND URBAN GROWTH PLANNING: A PARTNERSHIP1

ABSTRACT As urban expansion outstrips water supplies, the usual solution is to build pipelines to bring in water from sources farther afield. Such water supplies may act as either a leader of urban development or as a follower. In either case, this engineering approach to the provision of water has fostered less than optimal utilization of regional water and land resources for urban growth. More efficient utilization of these resources is achieved when water supply development and urban growth planning are conjoint activities. Water supply planners and land use planners, working together, are able to generate and evaluate the full range of urban development options, including water demand management through conservation. Preferred regional growth plans are achieved using the best mix of water supply and urban growth. The result is a reduced rate of water supply development and a reduction of urban expansion on prime lands. This partnership approach is demonstrated for the Calgary Region under two levels of water conservation.     

Riparian Ground‐Water Flow Patterns Using Flownet Analysis: Evapotranspiration‐Induced Upwelling and Implications for N Removal1

Abstract: Ground‐water flow paths constrain the extent of nitrogen (N) sinks in deep, stratified soils of riparian wetlands. We examined ground‐water flow paths at four forested riparian wetlands in deep, low gradient, stratified deposits subjected to Southern New England’s temperate, humid climate. Mid‐day piezometric heads were recorded during the high water table period in April/May and again in late November at one site. Coupling field data with a two‐dimensional steady‐state ground‐water flow model, flow paths and fluxes were derived to 3 m depths. April/May evapotranspiration (ET) dominated total outflux (44‐100%) while flux to the stream was <10% of total outflux. ET exerted upward ground‐water flux through shallow carbon‐rich soils, increasing opportunities for N transformations and diverting flow from the stream. Dormant season results showed a marked increase in flux to the stream (27% of the total flux). Riparian sites with deep water tables (naturally or because of increased urbanization or other hydrologic modifications) or shallow root zones may not generate ground‐water upwelling to meet evaporative demand, thereby increasing the risk of N movement to streams. As water managers balance issues of water quality with water quantity, they will be faced with decisions regarding riparian management. Further work towards refining our understanding of ET mediation of N and water flux at the catchment scale will serve to inform these decisions.     

Residents’ Assessment of an Urban Outdoor Water Conservation Program in Guelph,Ontario1

Abstract: Many municipalities have implemented demand management of outdoor water use. Measures such as restrictions on lawn watering and promotion of xeriscaping are effective in reducing water demand during summer months, especially during dry spells. However, little research examines a key factor shaping the success of these programs: residents’ perceptions of and satisfaction with such conservation measures. This article describes an urban outdoor water conservation program in Guelph, Ontario, assesses that program from the perspective of residents, and explores socio‐economic, attitudinal and other factors associated with residents’ assessment of the program. A survey of Guelph residents revealed broad support for the program, which includes restrictions on various outdoor water uses and, under certain circumstances, a ban on lawn watering. However, there was much uncertainty among residents about the effectiveness of the program in reducing water use and the effectiveness of program enforcement. Key factors influencing residents’ assessment of the program were neighborhood, gender and environmental attitude. Implications for the design and implementation of outdoor water conservation programs are discussed, including the importance of better communication of information on program effectiveness and enforcement.     

The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies1

Tsai, Yushiou, Sara Cohen, and Richard M. Vogel, 2011. The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):687‐701. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00534.x Abstract: We assessed impacts on water use achieved by implementation of controlled experiments relating to four water conservation strategies in four towns within the Ipswich watershed in Massachusetts. The strategies included (1) installation of weather‐sensitive irrigation controller switches (WSICS) in residences and municipal athletic fields; (2) installation of rainwater harvesting systems in residences; (3) two outreach programs: (a) free home indoor water use audits and water fixture retrofit kits and (b) rebates for low‐water‐demand toilets and washing machines; and (4) soil amendments to improve soil moisture retention at a municipal athletic field. The goals of this study are to summarize the effectiveness of the four water conservation strategies and to introduce nonparametric statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of these conservation strategies in reducing water use. It was found that (1) the municipal WSICS significantly reduced water use; (2) residences with high irrigation demand were more likely than low water users to experience a substantial demand decrease when equipped with the WSICS; (3) rainwater harvesting provided substantial rainwater use, but these volumes were small relative to total domestic water use and relative to the natural fluctuations in domestic water use; (4) both the audits/retrofit and rebate programs resulted in significant water savings; and (5) a modeling approach showed potential water savings from soil amendments in ball fields.     

The South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project of China: Environmental Implications and Monitoring Strategy1

Abstract: In 2002, China launched the South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project after completing a 50‐year feasibility study. By 2050, the three‐route (i.e., East, Middle, and West) project will be capable of transferring 44.8 billion m³/year of water from the water rich Yangtze River to the arid north to alleviate water shortage and help secure a balanced social and economic development across the nation. However, diversion of such a large quantity of water could profoundly change the riverine environment of the upper Yellow River and the lower reach of the Han River, a tributary of the Yangtze River and the water supplying area of the project’s Middle Route, because of changes in the annual discharge. Secondary salinization seems inevitable in the water receiving areas of the North China Plain, and decrease in the discharge of the Yangtze River will result in seawater intrusion into the Yangtze Delta. This paper describes the project and discusses its environmental implications. Additionally, a long‐term monitoring strategy under the umbrella of the Chinese Ecological Research Network is proposed for environmental monitoring.     

Wind‐Powered Desalination: An Estimate of Saline Groundwater in the United States1

James Androwski, Abraham Springer, Thomas Acker, and Mark Manone, 2011. Wind‐Powered Desalination: An Estimate of Saline Groundwater in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):93‐102. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00493.x Abstract: Increasing scarcity of freshwater resources in many regions of the world is leading water resource managers to consider desalination as a potential alternative to traditional freshwater supplies. Desalination technologies are energy intensive and expensive to implement making desalination using renewable energy resources a potentially attractive option. Unfortunately, saline groundwater resources are not well characterized for many regions hindering consideration of such technologies. In this assessment, we estimate the saline groundwater resources of the principal aquifers of the United States using a geographic information system and correlate these resources to wind resources potentially sufficient to supply the energy demand of desalination equipment. We estimate that 3.1 × 10¹⁴ m³ saline groundwater, total volume, are contained in 28 of the country’s principal aquifers known to contain saline groundwater. Of this volume, 1.4 × 10¹⁴ m³ saline groundwater are co‐located with wind resources sufficient for electrical generation to desalinate groundwater.     

Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

Water and the politics of sustainability transitions: from regime actor conflicts to system governance organizations

This study contributes to the analysis of the politics of sustainability transitions by developing a focus on regime actor conflicts and a processual model for how these conflicts develop and are resolved. In a comparison of water-supply systems in four U.S. cities, we show how conflicts among regime actors and political jurisdictions lead to the formation of system governance organizations (SGOs) that bridge jurisdictional boundaries to manage conflicts over a technological system (TS). SGOs coordinate relations among water utilities and diverse stakeholders to reduce pervasive conflicts, but they can also serve as drivers of improved sustainability. We analyze resistance that can emerge, such as from urban growth coalitions, which limit the capacity of SGOs to drive changes. We develop a four-stage processual model (first-order regime conflicts, SGO formation, sustainability transition expansion, and second-order regime conflicts) that opens research in the politics of transitions to the dynamic of regime actor conflicts and provides the basis for generalizations about the causes of SGO formation and their effects on the governance of TSs such as water-supply infrastructure. Policy implications regarding how to improve political support for SGO sustainability efforts are also discussed.     

Implications of Upstream Flow Availability for Watershed Surface Water Supply across the Conterminous United States

Although it is well established that the availability of upstream flow (AUF) affects downstream water supply, its significance has not been rigorously categorized and quantified at fine resolutions. This study aims to fill this gap by providing a nationwide inventory of AUF and local water resource, and assessing their roles in securing water supply across the 2,099 8‐digit hydrologic unit code watersheds in the conterminous United States (CONUS). We investigated the effects of river hydraulic connectivity, climate variability, and water withdrawal, and consumption on water availability and water stress (ratio of demand to supply) in the past three decades (i.e., 1981–2010). The results show that 12% of the CONUS land relied on AUF for adequate freshwater supply, while local water alone was sufficient to meet the demand in another 74% of the area. The remaining 14% highly stressed area was mostly found in headwater areas or watersheds that were isolated from other basins, where stress levels were more sensitive to climate variability. Although the constantly changing water demand was the primary cause of escalating/diminishing stress, AUF variation could be an important driver in the arid south and southwest. This research contributes to better understanding of the significance of upstream–downstream water nexus in regional water availability, and this becomes more crucial under a changing climate and with intensified human activities.     

Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area1

Mieno, Taro and John B. Braden, 2011. Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):713‐723. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00536.x Abstract: This paper provides the first contemporary analysis of residential water demand in humid Northeastern Illinois, in the vicinity of Chicago, and explores seasonal and income‐based differentials in the responsiveness of water use to water prices. Using a panel of system‐level data for eight water systems and controlling for seasons, weather, incomes, and community characteristics, the analysis yields low estimates of price elasticity of demand for water in line with other studies. Furthermore, price response is greater in summer and less in higher income communities. We suggest that use of seasonal pricing can help mitigate equity issues arising from differential income elasticities while taking advantage of the greater price responsiveness of summertime water use.     

Water Use by Thermoelectric Power Plants in the United States1

Abstract: Thermoelectric power generation is responsible for the largest annual volume of water withdrawals in the United States although it is only a distant third after irrigation and industrial sectors in consumptive use. The substantial water withdrawals by thermoelectric power plants can have significant impacts on local surface and ground water sources, especially in arid regions. However, there are few studies of the determinants of water use in thermoelectric generation. Analysis of thermoelectric water use data in existing steam thermoelectric power plants shows that there is wide variability in unitary thermoelectric water use (in cubic decimeters per 1 kWh) within and among different types of cooling systems. Multiple‐regression models of unit thermoelectric water use were developed to identify significant determinants of unit thermoelectric water use. The high variability of unit usage rates indicates that there is a significant potential for water conservation in existing thermoelectric power plants.     

Managing the Commons Texas Style: Wildlife Management and Ground‐Water Associations on Private Lands1

Abstract: As nearly all of Texas’ rural lands are privately owned, landowner associations for the management of white‐tailed deer and ground‐water have become increasingly popular. Deer are a common‐pool resource with transboundary characteristics, requiring landowner cooperation for effective management. Ground‐water reserves are economically important to landowners, but are governed by the “rule of capture” whereby property rights are not defined. One ground‐water association and four wildlife management associations (WMAs) were surveyed to characterize their member demographics, land use priorities, attitudes, and social capital. Members of the ground‐water cooperative were part of a much larger, more heterogeneous, and more recently formed group than members of WMAs. They also placed greater importance on utilitarian aspects of their properties, as opposed to land stewardship for conservation as practiced by members of WMAs. If ground‐water association members could be more locally organized with more frequent meetings, social capital and information sharing may be enhanced and lead to land stewardship practices for improved hydrologic functions and sustained ground‐water supply. This, coupled with pumping rules assigned by the local ground‐water district, could yield an effective strategy that is ecologically and hydrologicaly sound, and that allows rural provision of water supply to urban consumers.