Describing Damage to Stream Modification Projects in Constrained Settings

Complex relationships between stream functions and processes make evaluation of stream modification projects difficult. Informed by vague objectives and minimal monitoring data, post‐construction project evaluations can often be a subjective attribution of success or failure. This article provides a simple framework to rapidly describe the degree of damage in stream modification projects performed in constrained settings. Based on widely accepted evaluations of physical habitat quality and stream stability, the damage states framework describes a continuum of damage in multiple categories that relate natural stream functions to the often desired state of static equilibrium. Given that channel form is closely related to stream function, it follows that changes to the channel form result in changes in function. The damage states focus on damage to flow hydraulics, sediment transport and channel equilibrium, hydraulic, and geomorphic parameters that describe basic stream functioning and support higher level functions in the modified channel. The damage states can be used in decision making as a systematic method to determine the need for repair and design adjustments.     

Nutrient Enrichment and Fish Nutrient Tolerance: Assessing Biologically Relevant Nutrient Criteria1

Abstract: Relationships between nutrient concentrations and fish nutrient tolerance were assessed relative to established nutrient criteria. Fish community, nitrate plus nitrite (nitrate), and total phosphorus (TP) data were collected during summer low‐flow periods in 2003 and 2004 at stream sites along a nutrient‐enrichment gradient in an agricultural basin in Indiana and Ohio and an urban basin in the Atlanta, Georgia, area. Tolerance indicator values for nitrate and TP were assigned for each species and averaged separately for fish communities at each site (TIV_o). Models were used to predict fish species expected to occur at a site under minimally disturbed conditions and average tolerance indicator values were determined for nitrate and TP separately for expected communities (TIV_e). In both areas, tolerance scores (TIV_o/TIV_e) for nitrate increased significantly with increased nitrate concentrations whereas no significant relationships were detected between TP tolerance scores and TP concentrations. A 0% increase in the tolerance score (TIV_o/TIV_e = 1) for nitrate corresponded to a nitrate concentration of 0.19 mg/l (compared with a USEPA summer nitrate criterion of 0.17 mg/l) in the urban area and 0.31 mg/l (compared with a USEPA summer nitrate criterion of 0.86 mg/l) in the agricultural area. Fish nutrient tolerance values offer the ability to evaluate nutrient enrichment based on a quantitative approach that can provide insights into biologically relevant nutrient criteria.     

Characterizing a Major Urban Stream Restoration Project: Nine Mile Run (Pittsburgh,Pennsylvania, USA)

Urban stream restoration continues to be used as an ecological management tool, despite uncertainty about the long‐term sustainability and resilience of restored systems. Evaluations of restoration success often focus on specific instream indicators, with limited attention to the wider basin or parallel hydrologic and geomorphic process. A comprehensive understanding of urban stream restoration progress is particularly important for comparisons with nonurban sites as urban streams can provide substantial secondary benefits to urban residents. Here, we utilize a wide range of indicators to retrospectively examine the restoration of Nine Mile Run, a multi‐million dollar stream restoration project in eastern Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania, USA). Examination of available continuous hydrological data illustrates the high cost of failures to incorporate the data into planning and adaptive management. For example, persistent extreme flows drive geomorphic degradation threatening to reverse hydrologic connections created by the restoration and impact the improved instream biotic communities. In addition, human activities associated with restoration efforts suggest a positive feedback as the stream restoration has focused effort on the basin beyond the reach. Ultimately, urban stream restoration remains a potentially useful management tool, but continued improvements in post‐project assessment should include examination of a wider range of indicators.     

Spatial Variability of Pool-Tail Fines in Mountain Gravel-Bed Stream Affects Grid-Count Results1

Bunte, Kristin, John P. Potyondy, Kurt W. Swingle, and Steven R. Abt, 2012. Spatial Variability of Pool-Tail Fines in Mountain Gravel-Bed Stream Affects Grid-Count Results. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 530-545. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00629.x Abstract: Fine sediment (<2 and <6 mm) particles underlying a 49-intersection grid placed on a streambed at 25, 50, and 75% of the wetted pool-tail width are commonly counted to assess the status and trend of aquatic ecosystems or to monitor changes in the supply of fines in mountain gravel-bed streams. However, results vary even when crews perform nearly identical procedures. This study hypothesized that spatial variability of pool-tail fines affects grid-count results and that a sampling scheme can be optimized for precision and accuracy. Grid counts taken at seven evenly spaced locations across the wetted width of 10 pool tails in a pool-riffle study stream indicated a bankward fining trend with secondary peaks of fines within the stream center. Sampling locations close to the waterlines harbored more than twice as many fines as central locations. Most of the five grid-count schemes derived from the seven sampled locations produced significantly different results. Compared with sampling at all seven locations, schemes that focus near waterlines overpredicted fines, while those that focus on the center underpredicted them. Variability of fines among pool tails was the highest within a broad band along the waterlines; hence, focusing sampling there yielded the most variable results. The scheme sampling at 25, 50, and 75% of the wetted width had the lowest precision and moderate accuracy. Accuracy and precision of grid-count results can be greatly improved by sampling at seven even-spaced locations across the pool tail.     

Rapid Geomorphic and Habitat Stream Assessment Techniques Inform Restoration Differently Based on Levels of Stream Disturbance

Visual‐based rapid assessment techniques provide an efficient method for characterizing the restoration potential of streams, with many focusing on channel stability and instream habitat features. Few studies, however, have compared these techniques to see if they result in differing restoration priorities. Three rapid assessment techniques were contrasted at three wild trout streams in western New York with different amounts of channel disturbance. Two methods focused only on geomorphic stability, whereas the third addressed physical habitat condition. Habitat assessment scores were not correlated with scores for either geomorphic assessment method and they varied more between channels with different degrees of disturbance. A model based on dynamic equilibrium concepts best explains the variation among the streams and techniques because it accounts for a stream's capacity to maintain ecological integrity despite some inherent instability. Geomorphic indices can serve as effective proxies for biological indices in highly disturbed systems. Yet, this may not be the case in less disturbed systems, where geomorphic indices cannot differentiate channel adjustments that impact biota from those that do not. Dynamically stable streams can include both stable and unstable reaches locally as characterized by geomorphic methods and translating these results into restoration priorities may not be appropriate if interpretations are limited to the reach scale.     

Reach‐Scale Comparison of Habitat and Mollusk Assemblages for Select Sites in the Clinch River with Regional Context

Several hypotheses, including habitat degradation and variation in fluvial geomorphology, have been posed to explain extreme spatial and temporal variation in Clinch River mollusk assemblages. We examined associations between mollusk assemblage metrics (richness, abundance, recruitment) and physical habitat (geomorphology, streambed composition, fish habitat, and riparian condition) at 10 sites selected to represent the range of current assemblage condition in the Clinch River. We compared similar geomorphological units among reaches, employing semi‐quantitative and quantitative protocols to characterize mollusk assemblages and a mix of visual assessments and empirical measurements to characterize physical habitat. We found little to no evidence that current assemblage condition was associated with 54 analyzed habitat metrics. When compared to other sites in the Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB) that once supported or currently support mollusk assemblages, Clinch River sites were more similar to each other, representing a narrower range of conditions than observed across the larger geographic extent of the UTRB. A post‐hoc analysis suggested stream size and average boundary shear stress at bankfull stage may have historically limited species richness in the UTRB (p < 0.001). Associations between mollusk assemblages and physical habitat in the UTRB and Clinch River currently appear obscured by other factors limiting richness, abundance, and recruitment.     

Observations and Modeling of Stream Plunging in an Urban Lake1

Owens, Emmet M., Steven W. Effler, Anthony R. Prestigiacomo, David A. Matthews, and Susan M. O’Donnell, 2012. Observations and Modeling of Stream Plunging in an Urban Lake. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 707‐721. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00646.x Abstract: The plunging behavior of two tributaries in Onondaga Lake, New York, is quantified based on a program of monitoring, process studies, and modeling. The dynamics of buoyancy of the tributaries are resolved with hourly measurements of temperature (T), specific conductance (SC), and turbidity (Tn) at the mouths, and observations every 6 h in the lake. Negative buoyancy of the tributaries is found to diminish and change rapidly during runoff events compared to dry periods. In‐lake patterns of the transport of plunging inflow are resolved for dry weather conditions using a dye tracer, and following a runoff event through measurements of T, SC, and Tn. The hydrodynamic/transport model ELCOM (Estuary Lake and Coastal Ocean Model) is demonstrated to perform well in simulating these patterns. Analyses conducted with the model establish the importance of diurnal effects and in‐lake mixing mediated by wind, the need for temporally detailed measurements during runoff events, and modifications of the plunging behavior of the urban tributary as it passes through a harbor. The model provides critical information to support rehabilitation programs for the lake by quantifying the transport of the two largest tributaries, particularly the distribution of the loads between the upper waters and stratified layers. The model predicts that 10% of the urban tributary load enters the upper waters of the lake within 24 h for a dry weather period; this portion increases to 30% for a runoff event.     

Predicting River Floodplain and Lateral Channel Migration for Salmon Habitat Conservation1

Abstract: In this article, we describe a method for predicting floodplain locations and potential lateral channel migration across 82,900 km (491 km² by bankfull area) of streams in the Columbia River basin. Predictions are based on channel confinement, channel slope, bankfull width, and bankfull depth derived from digital elevation and precipitation data. Half of the 367 km² (47,900 km by length) of low‐gradient channels (≤ 4% channel slope) were classified as floodplain channels with a high likelihood of lateral channel migration (182 km², 50%). Classification agreement between modeled and field‐measured floodplain confinement was 85% (κ = 0.46, p < 0.001) with the largest source of error being the misclassification of unconfined channels as confined (55% omission error). Classification agreement between predicted channel migration and lateral migration determined from aerial photographs was 76% (κ = 0.53, p < 0.001) with the largest source of error being the misclassification of laterally migrating channels as non‐migrating (35% omission error). On average, more salmon populations were associated with laterally migrating channels and floodplains than with confined or nonmigrating channels. These data are useful for many river basin planning applications, including identification of land use impacts to floodplain habitats and locations with restoration potential for listed salmonids or other species of concern.     

Improved Bankfull Discharge Prediction Using 2‐Year Recurrence‐Period Discharge1

Abstract:  Knowledge of bankfull discharge (Q_bf) is essential for planners, engineers, geomorphologists, environmentalists, agricultural interests, developments situated on flood prone lands, surface mining and reclamation activities, and others interested in floods and flooding. In conjunction with estimating Q_bf, regionalized bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships, which relate Q_bf and associated channel dimensions (i.e., width, depth, and cross‐section area) to drainage basin area (A_da), are often used. This study seeks to improve upon the common practice of predicting Q_bf using A_da exclusively. Specifically, we hypothesize that predictions of Q_bf can be improved by including estimates of the 2‐year recurrence‐period discharge (Q₂) in regression models for predicting Q_bf. For testing this hypothesis, we used Q_bf estimates from 30 reports containing data for streams that span 34 hydrologic regions in 16 states. Corresponding values of Q₂ and A_da were compiled from flood‐frequency reports and other sources. By comparing statistical measures (i.e., root mean squared error, coefficient of determination, and Akaike’s information criterion), we determined that predicting Q_bf from Q₂ rather than A_da yields consistently better estimates of Q_bf. Other principal findings are (1) data are needed for at least 12 sites in a region for reliable hydraulic geometry model selection and (2) an approximate range of values for Q_bf/Q₂ is 0.10‐3.0.     

Effects of Geomorphic Setting and Urbanization on Wood,Pools, Sediment Storage,and Bank Erosion in Puget Sound Streams1

Segura, Catalina and Derek B. Booth, 2010. Effects of Geomorphic Setting and Urbanization on Wood, Pools, Sediment Storage, and Bank Erosion in Puget Sound Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):972-986. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00470.x Abstract: Interrelationships between urbanization, the near-riparian zone, and channel morphology were examined in 44 lowland stream reaches in the Puget Lowlands of western Washington, United States. Both the degree of urbanization and channel type control channel response to a range of instream and riparian conditions. Some of these relationships are not evident in lumped datasets (i.e., with all channel types and/or degrees of urbanization) and highlight the importance of fluvial geomorphology in determining channel response. We found that in low-urbanized watersheds dominated by forced pool-riffle and plane-bed morphologies, the frequency and distribution of large woody debris (LWD), pool spacing, sediment storage, and bank erosion have a strong relationship with channel confinement and characteristics of near-riparian vegetation. In contrast, high-urbanized reaches dominated by simplified morphologies are substantially less sensitive to the condition of the near-riparian zone (e.g., size of the near-riparian vegetation and the level of channel confinement), due to the common disconnection of stream and floodplain caused by the placement of stabilizing structures in the banks. These structures are typically placed to prevent erosion; however, they also result in fewer LWD and pools, less sediment storage, and higher potential for incision.     

Concentration‐Duration‐Frequency Curves for Stream Turbidity: Possibilities for Assessing Biological Impairment1

Abstract: Siltation and subsequent biological impairment is a national problem prompting state regulatory agencies to develop sediment total maximum daily loads (TMDL) for many streams. To support TMDL targets for reduced sediment yield in disturbed watersheds, a critical need exists for stream assessments to identify threshold concentrations of suspended sediment that impact aquatic biota. Because of the episodic nature of stream sediment transport, thresholds should not only be a function of sediment concentration, but also of duration and dose frequency. Water quality sondes can collect voluminous amounts of turbidity data, a surrogate for suspended sediment, at intervals that can be used to characterize concentration, duration, and frequency of elevated turbidity events. To characterize turbidity sonde data in an ecologically relevant manner, a methodology for concentration‐duration‐frequency (CDF) curves was developed using turbidity doses that relate to different levels of biological impairment. To illustrate this methodology, turbidity CDF curves were generated for two sites on Little Pigeon River in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee, using over 30,000 sonde data measurements per site for a one‐year period. Utilizing a Poisson arrival approach, turbidity spikes were analyzed stochastically by observing the frequency and duration of recorded events over a turbidity level that relates to a biological dose response. An exponential equation was used to fit duration and frequency of a specified turbidity level to generate concentric‐shaped CDF curves, where at specific turbidities longer durations occurred less frequently and conversely shorter durations occurred more frequently. The significance of the equation fit to the data was accomplished with a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov goodness‐of‐fit test. Our findings showed that the CDF curves derived by an exponential function performed reasonable well, with most curves significant at a 95% confidence level. These CDF curves were then used to demonstrate how they could be used to assess biological impairment, and identify future research needs for improved development of sediment TMDLs.     

The Controversy Over Natural Channel Design: Substantive Explanations and Potential Avenues for Resolution1

Lave, Rebecca, 2009. The Controversy Over Natural Channel Design: Substantive Explanations and Potential Avenues for Resolution. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1519‐1532. Abstract: The controversy over Natural Channel Design (NCD) has perplexed, and sometimes paralyzed, the stream restoration community in the United States for more than a decade. Despite the high level of energy expended by participants on both sides, the content of the discussion has not advanced significantly. The two sides seem to be talking past each other, rather than engaging in constructive conversation. This paper attempts to start that conversation. Based on five years of primarily social science research, this paper explains the key components of the NCD approach, evaluates a number of the most common objections raised by its critics, offers a brief explanation for the widespread use of NCD, and concludes with suggestions about how to bring the controversy to a close.     

Hydrologic Connectivity and the Contribution of Stream Headwaters to Ecological Integrity at Regional Scales1

Abstract: Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water‐mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two‐thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large‐scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free‐flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large‐scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream‐system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems. Linkages between headwaters and downstream ecosystems cannot be discounted when addressing large‐scale issues such as hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and global losses of biodiversity.     

Sensitivity of Thermal Habitat of a Trout Stream to Potential Climate Change,Wisconsin, United States1

Abstract: Airborne thermal remote sensing from four flights on a single day from a single‐engine airplane was used to collect thermal infrared data of a 10.47‐km reach of the upper East Branch Pecatonica River in southwest Wisconsin. The study uses a one‐dimensional stream temperature model calibrated with the longitudinal profiles of stream temperature created from the four thermal imaging flights and validated with three days of continuous stream temperature data from instream data loggers on the days surrounding the thermal remote‐sensing campaign. Model simulations were used to quantify the sensitivity of stream thermal habitat to increases in air and groundwater temperature and changes in base flow. The simulations indicate that stream temperatures may reach critical maximum thresholds for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) mortality, particularly if both air temperature increases and base flow declines. The approach demonstrates that thermal infrared data can greatly assist stream temperature model validation due to its high spatial resolution, and that this spatially continuous stream temperature data can be used to pinpoint spatial heterogeneity in groundwater inflow to streams. With this spatially distributed data on thermal heterogeneity and base‐flow accretion, stream temperature models considering various climate change scenarios are able to identify thermal refugia that will be critical for fisheries management under a changing climate.     

Assessing Impervious Surface Connectivity and Applications for Watershed Management1

Abstract: Although total impervious area (TIA) is often used as an indicator of urban disturbance, recent studies suggest that the subset of impervious surfaces that route stormwater runoff directly to streams via stormwater pipes, called directly connected impervious area (DCIA), may be a better predictor of stream ecosystem alteration. We evaluated the differences between TIA and DCIA in the Shepherd Creek catchment, a small (1.85‐km²), suburban basin in Cincinnati, Ohio. Imperviousness determinations were calculated based on publicly available geographic information system (GIS) data and parcel‐scale field assessments, and these direct assessments were compared to DCIA calculated from published, empirical relationships. Impervious and semi‐impervious area comprised 13.1% of the catchment area, with 56.3% of the impervious area connected. When summarized by subcatchments (0.26‐1.85 km²), TIA measured in the field (11‐23%) was considerably higher than that calculated from the National Land Cover Data Imperviousness Layer (7‐18%). In contrast, TIA calculated based on aerial photos was similar to TIA calculated from field assessments, thus indicating that photo interpretation may be adequate for catchment‐scale (>25 ha) TIA determinations. While these GIS data sources can be used to calculate TIA, on‐site assessments were necessary to accurately determine DCIA within residential parcels. There was a wide variation in percent connectivity across parcels, and, subsequently, DCIA was not accurately predicted from empirical relationships with TIA. We discuss applications of DCIA data that highlight the importance of parcel‐scale field assessments for managing suburban watersheds.     

Legacy Effects of Colonial Millponds on Floodplain Sedimentation,Bank Erosion,and Channel Morphology,Mid‐Atlantic,USA1

Abstract: Many rivers and streams of the Mid‐Atlantic Region, United States (U.S.) have been altered by postcolonial floodplain sedimentation (legacy sediment) associated with numerous milldams. Little Conestoga Creek, Pennsylvania, a tributary to the Susquehanna River and the Chesapeake Bay, is one of these streams. Floodplain sedimentation rates, bank erosion rates, and channel morphology were measured annually during 2004‐2007 at five sites along a 28‐km length of Little Conestoga Creek with nine colonial era milldams (one dam was still in place in 2007). This study was part of a larger cooperative effort to quantify floodplain sedimentation, bank erosion, and channel morphology in a high sediment yielding region of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Data from the five sites were used to estimate the annual volume and mass of sediment stored on the floodplain and eroded from the banks for 14 segments along the 28‐km length of creek. A bank and floodplain reach based sediment budget (sediment budget) was constructed for the 28 km by summing the net volume of sediment deposited and eroded from each segment. Mean floodplain sedimentation rates for Little Conestoga Creek were variable, with erosion at one upstream site (?5 mm/year) to deposition at the other four sites (highest = 11 mm/year) despite over a meter of floodplain aggradation from postcolonial sedimentation. Mean bank erosion rates range between 29 and 163 mm/year among the five sites. Bank height increased 1 m for every 10.6 m of channel width, from upstream to downstream (R² = 0.79, p < 0.0001) resulting in progressively lowered hydraulic connectivity between the channel and the floodplain. Floodplain sedimentation and bank erosion rates also appear to be affected by the proximity of the segments to one existing milldam, which promotes deposition upstream and scouring downstream. The floodplain and bank along the 28‐km reach produced a net mean sediment loss of 5,634 Mg/year for 2004‐2007, indicating that bank erosion was exceeding floodplain sedimentation. In particular, the three segments between the existing dam and the confluence with the Conestoga River (32% of the studied reach) account for 97% of the measured net sediment budget. Future research directed at understanding channel equilibria should facilitate efforts to reduce the sediment impacts of dam removal and legacy sediment.     

A Regional‐Scale Habitat Suitability Model to Assess the Effects of Flow Reduction on Fish Assemblages in Michigan Streams1

Zorn, Troy G., Paul W. Seelbach, and Edward S. Rutherford, 2012. A Regional‐Scale Habitat Suitability Model to Assess the Effects of Flow Reduction on Fish Assemblages in Michigan Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 871‐895. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00656.x Abstract: In response to concerns over increased use and potential diversion of Michigan’s freshwater resources, and the resulting state legislative mandate, an advisory council created an integrated assessment model to determine the potential for water withdrawals to cause an adverse resource impact to fish assemblages in Michigan’s streams. As part of this effort, we developed a model to predict how fish assemblages characteristic of different stream types would change in response to decreased stream base flows. We describe model development and use in this case study. The model uses habitat suitability information (i.e., catchment size, base‐flow yield, and July mean water temperature) for over 40 fish species to predict assemblage structure in an individual river segment under a range of base‐flow reductions. By synthesizing model runs for individual fish species at representative segments for each of Michigan’s 11 ecological stream types, we developed curves describing how typical fish assemblages in each type respond to flow reduction. Each stream type‐specific, fish response curve was used to identify streamflow reduction levels resulting in adverse resource impacts to characteristic fish populations, the regulatory standard. Used together with a statewide map of stream types, our model provided a spatially comprehensive framework for evaluating impacts of flow withdrawals on biotic communities across a diverse regional landscape.     

Developing Nutrient Criteria for Streams: An Evaluation of the Frequency Distribution Method1

Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommends two statistical methods to States and Tribes for developing nutrient criteria. One establishes a criterion as the 75th percentile of a reference‐population frequency distribution, the other uses the 25th percentile of a general‐population distribution; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency suggests either method results in similar criteria. To evaluate each method, the Montana Department of Environmental Quality (MT DEQ) assembled data from STORET and other sources to create a nutrient general population. MT DEQ’s reference‐stream project provided reference population data. Data were partitioned by ecoregions, and by seasons (winter, runoff, and growing) defined for the project. For each ecoregion and season, nutrient concentrations at the 75th percentile of the reference population were matched to their corresponding concentrations in the general population. Additionally, nutrient concentrations from five regional scientific studies were matched to their corresponding reference population concentrations; each study linked nutrients to impacts on water uses. Reference‐to‐general population matches were highly variable between ecoregions, as nutrients at the 75th percentile of reference corresponded to percentiles ranging from the 4th to the 97th of the general population. In contrast, case studies‐to‐reference matches were more consistent, matching on average to the 86th percentile of reference, with a coefficient of variation of 13%.     

Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985–2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology, and soils. These models performed better than most United States Geological Survey models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile [Q10] and minimum 3‐in‐5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low‐flow conditions over time, while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985–2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, Massachusetts, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low‐flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.