APPLICABILITY OF THE t-TEST FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: A major concern in managing water resources is whether or not water quality variables have changed over time or space. The two-sample Student's t-test is probably the most commonly used statistical test for this purpose. Given that the underlying assumptions of the test may often be violated by water quality variables, a major concern regarding applicability of the test arises. This paper reviews and synthesizes available information in order to examine the effects of non-normality, unequal variances, serial dependence, and seasonality on the performance of the two-sample t-test. The results suggest the t-test is robust for non-normal distributions if the distributions have the same shape (either symmetric or skewed) and sample sizes are equal. The t-test is also robust for unequal variances if the sample sizes are equal. The t-test appears not to be robust when: 1) samples come from two distributions of different shape, 2) samples have unequal variances and unequal sample sizes, 3) serial dependence in observations is present, or 4) seasonal changes, in concentration are present and not removed.     

EVALUATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF WATER WITHDRAWALS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1995 TO 20251

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business‐as‐usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.     

FREQUENCY OF DRY DAY SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: Data from 100 stations were used to prepare a generalized characterization of the extremely long dry day sequences in the United States. Maps are presented showing the magnitude of the two-year, dry day sequences for 1 mm threshold and the coefficient of variation of the items used in the extreme value analysis. For the United States, the average coefficient of variation for dry periods is 30 percent as compared with that for maximum 24h rainfalls which is 37 percent. An example is presented for computing the longer return periods.     

A SURVEY OF THE U.S. NATIONAL PRECIPITATION NETWORK1

ABSTRACT: Numbers and record lengths of precipitation stations were surveyed in the conterminous United States using climatological data published in 1975 by the National Weather Service (NWS). The total numbers of nonrecording (8247) and recording (3036) gages were about the same as in the 1940s and less than in the late 1950s; about 70 percent of the nonrecording gages have record lengths of 25 years or more. State network densities were increased exponentially with population density and long term precipitation average. Except for a few states, precipitation stations maintained by the NWS are adequate in numbers to ensure a 95 percent statistical probability that state sample means will estimate true means within ± 5 percent.     

NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN FOREST STREAMS OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Seventy to eighty percent of the water flowing in rivers in the United States originates as precipitation in forests. This project developed a synoptic picture of the patterns in water chemistry for over 300 streams in small, forested watersheds across the United States. Nitrate (NO₃^?) concentrations averaged 0.31 mg N/L, with some streams averaging ten times this level. Nitrate concentrations tended to be higher in the northeastern United States in watersheds dominated by hardwood forests (especially hardwoods other than oaks) and in recently harvested watersheds. Concentrations of dissolved organic N (mean 0.32 mg N/L) were similar to those of NO₃～, whereas ammonium (NH₄⁺) concentrations were much lower (mean 0.05 mg N/L). Nitrate dominated the N loads of streams draining hardwood forests, whereas dissolved organic N dominated the streams in coniferous forests. Concentrations of inorganic phosphate were typically much lower (mean 12 mg P/L) than dissolved organic phosphate (mean 84 mg P/L). The frequencies of chemical concentrations in streams in small, forested watersheds showed more streams with higher NO₃^? concentrations than the streams used in national monitoring programs of larger, mostly forested watersheds. At a local scale, no trend in nitrate concentration with stream order or basin size was consistent across studies.     

RESOLVING INTERSTATE WATER CONFLICTS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES: THE RE-EMERGENCE OF THE FEDERAL-INTERSTATE COMPACT1

ABSTRACT: As population growth occurs in regions of the eastern United States that do not have abundant water supplies, new transbasin diversions may be required. Such diversions are exceptionally politically divisive and are at the core of most of the interstate water conflicts that presently exist in the eastern states. This study examines alternative means by which these conflicts might be resolved. The strengths and weaknesses of these alternatives are examined. The study concludes that the federal-interstate compact should be the preferred alternative by which interstate water conflicts in the eastern United States are resolved.     

A COMPARISON OF SIX POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION METHODS FOR REGIONAL USE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important index of hydrologic budgets at different spatial scales and is a critical variable for understanding regional biological processes. It is often an important variable in estimating actual evapotranspiration (AET) in rainfall‐runoff and ecosystem modeling. However, PET is defined in different ways in the literature and quantitative estimation of PET with existing mathematical formulas produces inconsistent results. The objectives of this study are to contrast six commonly used PET methods and quantify the long term annual PET across a physiographic gradient of 36 forested watersheds in the southeastern United States. Three temperature based (Thornthwaite, Hamon, and Hargreaves‐Samani) and three radiation based (Turc, Makkink, and Priestley‐Taylor) PET methods are compared. Long term water balances (precipitation, streamflow, and AET) for 36 forest dominated watersheds from 0.25 to 8213 km² in size were estimated using associated hydrometeorological and land use databases. The study found that PET values calculated from the six methods were highly correlated (Pearson Correlation Coefficient 0.85 to 1.00). Multivariate statistical tests, however, showed that PET values from different methods were significantly different from each other. Greater differences were found among the temperature based PET methods than radiation based PET methods. In general, the Priestley‐Taylor, Turc, and Hamon methods performed better than the other PET methods. Based on the criteria of availability of input data and correlations with AET values, the Priestley‐Taylor, Turc, and Hamon methods are recommended for regional applications in the southeastern United States.     

SPATIAL COMPARABILITY OF THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is intended to be of reasonable comparable local significance both in space and time, has been extensively used as a measure of drought for both agricultural and water resource management. This study examines the spatial comparability of Palmer's (1965) definition of severe and extreme drought. Index values have been computed for 1035 sites with at least 60 years of record that are scattered across the contiguous United States, and quantile values corresponding to a specified index value were calculated for given months and then mapped. The analyses show that severe or extreme droughts, as defined by Palmer (1965), are not spatially comparable in terms of identifying rare events. The wide variation across the country in the frequency of occurrence of Palmer's (1965) extreme droughts reflects the differences in the variability of precipitation, as well as the average amount of precipitation. It is recommended first, that a drought index be developed which considers both variability and averages; and second, that water resource managers and planners define a drought in terms of an index value that corresponds to the expected quantile (return period) of the event.     

THE ECONOMICS OF GEOTHERMAL POWER

This article, based on a rapporteur's report, is a synthesis of papers read before the United Nations Symposium on the Development and Utilization of Geothermal Resources, held at Pisa, Italy, in 1970. It covers a broad cross-section of experience in exploiting geothermal energy, especially in Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.     

THE ECONOMICS OF GEOTHERMAL POWER

This article, based on a rapporteur's report, is a synthesis of papers read before the United Nations Symposium on the Development and Utilization of Geothermal Resources, held at Pisa, Italy, in 1970. It covers a broad cross-section of experience in exploiting geothermal energy, especially in Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America     

VARIABILITY OF BOTTOM SEDIMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Sediment characteristics of samples from physiographic provinces of the continental United States were examined to determine variability within and among physiographic provinces and to compare characteristics of freshwater and saltwater sediments. Organic carbon, particle size distribution, particle surface area, cation exchange capacity, redox potential, and percent solids were examined for a variety of lotic and lentic freshwater sediment samples and nearshore estuarine and marine samples from the continental United States. Analysis of variance indicated significant differences (p < 0.05) within and among physiographic provinces for both freshwater and saltwater sediment samples. Sediment characteristics within physiographic provinces were as variable as characteristics among provinces. Freshwater sediment characteristics were not significantly different (p < 0.05) from saltwater sediment characteristics. Saltwater sediment characteristics were observed to be more strongly correlated with each other than were freshwater sediment characteristics. Based on the variability of sediment samples examined in this study, a specific site may require 50 or more replicate samples to be adequately or accurately represented.     

PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENT BIASES IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Gage-induced biases in monthly precipitation are estimated and removed at 1818 stations across the continental United States from 1950 through 1987. Deleterious effects of the wind and wetting losses on the interior walls of the gage were considered. These “corrected” estimates were obtained using site-specific information including wind speed, shelter-height air temperature, gage height, and sheltering. Wind speed and air temperature were interpolated at stations for which these data were not available using a spherically-based, nearest neighbor interpolation procedure. Results indicate that, as expected, biases are greater in the winter than the summer owing to the increased problems (particularly wind-induced) of measuring snowfall. In summer, percent errors range between 4 and 6 percent over nearly three-quarters of the United States with slightly larger errors over the Rocky Mountains. By contrast, winter biases are highly correlated with snowfall totals and percentage errors increase poleward, mimicking patterns of snowfall frequency. Since these biases are not trivial, they must be accounted for in order to obtain accurate and reliable time-series. If these biases are not properly addressed, serious errors can be introduced into climate change, hydrologic modeling, and environmental impact research.     

MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF LAND AND WATER TO AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT Irrigated land outproduces dryland agriculture, especially in the western United States. Many valuable crops could not be grown without irrigation. A paucity of yield data does not allow direct measurement of the contribution from irrigated crop agriculture, nor does it allow evaluation of the contributions from livestock which are dependent upon irrigated feed. Regression results indicate that 80 percent of Idaho farm income is associated with irrigation, and that 75 percent of the farm income in the 17 western states is associated with irrigation. For the United States as a whole, results indicate that 13.7 percent of the total cropland (irrigated land) produced 41.3 percent of all cash receipts from farming in 1978. If 14 percent of the land can produce 40 percent of the value of production, can 35 percent of our land produce all our food and fiber needs? Such an allegation has several implications in terms of the adequacy of our land and water resources. It also emphasizes the role of technology in future resource use and production.     

ON THE EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL CLOUD SEEDING PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT Operational cloud seeding projects, those designed to produce a desired change in the weather and that are nonexperimental in nature, continue to be pursued widely in the United States. A recurring question by scientists, project sponsors, and cloud seeders has been, “was the weather altered and if so, by how much?” Evaluation of such projects is now recognized as having scientific benefits, and a four-year study has addressed various techniques and statistical methods to perform evaluations and to learn more about how to modify the weather. Most such evaluations hinge on some type of space-time comparisons, but valid comparisons can be obtained only avoiding biases in the project design and operation. Through simulated changes in weather conditions, it was determined that the principal component regression techniques were used to evaluate selected rain and hail modification projects, revealing modification in certain projects and none in others. Various relevant issues have been examined such as use of other weather variables (covariates) to increase detection power, the validity of using historical data as controls for discrete operational periods, possible randomization options during cloud seeding operations, and analyses of individual rain events versus that based on monthly or seasonal units.     

INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF THE GREAT LAKES-ST. LAWRENCE BASIN1

Neither Canada nor the United States attach much importance to the International Joint Commission (IJC) judging by the size of staffs and annual budgets. The Commission has been restricted to a relatively minor number of functions in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence. It has investigated: the degree and causes of water and air quality deterioration; the effects of hydroelectric and navigation projects on water levels; the impacts of water-level fluctuations; and the feasibility of a deep waterway from the St. Lawrence to the Hudson River. Projects approved by the Commission have produced less than might be expected through no fault of the Commission. The Great Lakes Fishery Commission has promoted little international management. Budgetary limitations restrict its lamprey control program; institutional limitations restrict its ability to deal effectively with fishery problems. Commission responsibilities are limited to coordination and advisory functions. Since Canada and the United States have not chosen to refer most aspects of river basin management to international bodies, an institutional void exists in the Great Lakes Basin to consider these questions on a continuous basis. There is a need for expanded international cooperation.     

ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER QUALITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: An assessment of current and future water quality conditions in the southeastern United States has been conducted using the EPA BASINS GIS/database system. The analysis has been conducted for dissolved oxygen, total nitrate nitrogen and pH. Future streamflow conditions have been predicted for the region based on the United Kingdom Hadley Center climate model. Thus far, the analyses have been conducted at a fairly coarse spatial scale due to time and resource limitations. Two hydrologic modeling techniques have been employed in future streamflow prediction: a regional stochastic approach and the application of a physically based soil moisture model. The regional model has been applied to the entire area while the physically based model is being used at selected locations to enhance and support the stochastic model. The results of the study reveal that few basins in the southeast exhibit dissolved oxygen problems, but that several watersheds exhibit high nitrogen levels. These basins are located in regions of intense agricultural activity or in proximity to the gulf coast. In many of these areas, streamflow is projected to decline over the next 30–50 years, thus exacerbating these water quality problems.     

WATER MARKETING: THE CASE OF INDIAN RESERVED RIGHTS1

ABSTRACT: Water marketing is an increasing important topic for policy makers and water managers, especially in the Western United States. Indian reserved rights (or Winters rights) differ in significant ways from water rights under most state prior appropriation systems. As Winters rights are quantified, a number of issues are emerging concerning the extent to which these water rights may be marketed, particularly to off-reservation users. This paper will review the evolution of Indian reserved water rights and discuss key issues surrounding the marketing of these rights.     

OPTIMAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE EXPANSION OF AN EXISTING WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS1

The study of the optimal expansion of existing water resources systems is of continuing importance because of the rising demand and limited supply of water in many areas of the world, particularly in the southwestern part of the United States of America. This study is concerned with the investigation of the optimal expansion of a realistic water resources system to meet an increasing demand for municipal and industrial use, irrigation, energy, and recreation over a planning horizon of T years. A number of possible dam sites are available for the further regulation of river (canal) flows in the basin and/or the regulation of imported waters into the basin. To maximize, over the set of alternative projects, the sum of discounted present value of net earnings subject to the demands and various institutional, physical and budgetary limits, an optimization problem (Problem I) was formed as a 0-1 mixed integer programming problem and was decomposed into the set of all feasible combinations (Problem II). The economic return was determined for each combination (Problem III). Problem II was solved by a branch and bound procedure which selected each feasible combination of dams while the optimal return for each such combination (Problem III) was found by a network analysis code.     

ARSENIC IN THE SHALLOW GROUND WATERS OF CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES: ASSESSMENT,HEALTH RISKS,AND COSTS FOR MCL COMPLIANCE1

A methodology consisting of ordinal logistic regression (OLR) is used to predict the probability of occurrence of arsenic concentrations in different threshold limits in shallow ground waters of the conterminous United States (CONUS) subject to a set of influencing variables. The analysis considered a number of maximum contaminant level (MCL) options as threshold values to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of arsenic in ranges defined by a given MCL of 3, 5, 10, 20, and 50 μg/l and a detection limit of 1 μg/l. The fit between the observed and predicted probability of occurrence was around 83 percent for all MCL options. The estimated probabilities were used to estimate the median background concentration of arsenic in the CONUS. The shallow ground water of the western United States is more vulnerable than the eastern United States. Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California in particular are hotspots for arsenic contamination. The risk assessment showed that counties in southern California, Arizona, Florida, and Washington and a few others scattered throughout the CONUS face a high risk from arsenic exposure through untreated ground water consumption. A simple cost effectiveness analysis was performed to understand the household costs for MCL compliance in using arsenic contaminated ground water. The results showed that the current MCL of 10 μg/l is a good compromise based on existing treatment technologies.