ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY,THE MID‐ATLANTIC REGION,USA1

ABSTRACT: Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for unpaged streams in the Mid‐Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, and the Piedmont Physiographic Provinces of the Mid‐Atlantic Region were used to develop a set of power functions that relate streamflow to drainage area and hydraulic geometry to streamflow. For all three physiographic provinces, drainage area explained 95 to 98 percent of the variance in mean annual streamflow. Relationships between mean annual streamflow and water surface width and mean flow depth had coefficients of determination that ranged from R²= 0.55 to R²= 0.91, but the coefficient of determination between mean flow velocity and mean annual streamflow was lower (R²= 0.44 to R²= 0.54). The advantages of using the regional regression models to estimate streamflow over a conceptual model or a water balance model are its ease of application and reduced input data needs. The prediction of the regression equations were tested with data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). In addition, equations to transfer streamflow from gaged to ungaged streams are presented.     

FORESTS AND OTHER FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMFLOWS IN EAST TEXAS1

Effects of proportion of watersheds in forest and watershed physiographic factors on mean annual streamflow (1965-76), median flow, and 12 flood flow characteristics were regionally analyzed for 19 unregulated streams in East Texas. Annual streamflow increased with decreasing proportion of forest area. Differences in annual streamflow between full forest cover and bare watersheds could be as much as 200 mm. Other things being equal, the minimum watershed area required to generate 0.142 cm (5 cfs), a criterion used by the U.S. Corps of Engineering in regulating dredge and fill activity for water pollution abatement in East Texas streams, is 70 km² (27 mi²). Of the 31 physio-climatic parameters analyzed, watershed area, percent forest area, shape index, spring precipitation, and annual temperature were the most significant in affecting streamflow characteristics in East Texas. Using 2-3 of these five variables, all of the 14 streamflow characteristics can be estimated with accuracy ranging from acceptable to excellent levels.     

Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho,Western Wyoming,and Northern Nevada1

Clark, Gregory M., 2010. Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho, Western Wyoming, and Northern Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):486-497. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00416.x Abstract: Recent studies have identified a pattern of earlier spring runoff across much of North America. Earlier spring runoff potentially poses numerous problems, including increased risk of flooding and reduced summer water supply for irrigation, power generation, and migratory fish passage. To identify changing runoff patterns in Idaho streams, streamflow records were analyzed for 26 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Idaho, western Wyoming, and northern Nevada, each with a minimum of 41 years of record. The 26 stations are located on 23 unregulated and relatively pristine streams that drain areas ranging from 28 to >35,000 km². Four runoff parameters were trend tested at each station for both the period of historical record and from 1967 through 2007. Parameters tested were annual mean streamflow, annual minimum daily streamflow, and the dates of the 25th and 50th percentiles of the annual total streamflow. Results of a nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test revealed a trend toward lower annual mean and annual minimum streamflows at a majority of the stations, as well as a trend toward earlier snowmelt runoff. Significant downward trends over the period of historical record were most prevalent for the annual minimum streamflow (12 stations) and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11 stations). At most stations, trends were more pronounced during the period from 1967 through 2007. A regional Kendall test for water years 1967 through 2007 revealed significant regional trends in the percent change in the annual mean and annual minimum streamflows (0.67% less per year and 0.62% less per year, respectively), the 25th percentile of streamflow (12.3 days earlier), and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11.5 days earlier).     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Low Streamflow and Precipitation Changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Spatial and temporal patterns in low streamflows were investigated for 183 streamgages located in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed for the period 1939–2013. Metrics that represent different aspects of the frequency and magnitude of low streamflows were examined for trends: (1) the annual time series of seven‐day average minimum streamflow, (2) the scaled average deficit at or below the 2% mean daily streamflow value relative to a base period between 1939 and 1970, and (3) the annual number of days below the 2% threshold. Trends in these statistics showed spatial cohesion, with increasing low streamflow volume at streamgages located in the northern uplands of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and decreasing low streamflow volume at streamgages in the southern part of the watershed. For a small subset of streamgages (12%), conflicting trend patterns were observed between the seven‐day average minimum streamflow and the below‐threshold time series and these appear to be related to upstream diversions or the influence of reservoir‐influenced streamflows in their contributing watersheds. Using multivariate classification techniques, mean annual precipitation and fraction of precipitation falling as snow appear to be broad controls of increasing and decreasing low‐flow trends. Further investigation of seasonal precipitation patterns shows summer rainfall patterns, driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, as the main driver of low streamflows in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.     

Temporal Changes in Streamflow and Attribution of Changes to Climate and Landuse in Wisconsin Watersheds

Previous historic trends analyses on 21st Century hydrologic data in the United States generally focus on annual flow statistics and have continued to use USGS hydro‐climatic data network (HCDN) stations, although post‐1988 diversions and runoff regulations are not reflected in the HCDN. Using a more recent dataset, Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow, version II (GAGES II), compiled by Falcone (2012), which includes more watersheds with reference conditions, a comprehensive analysis of changes in seasonal, and annual streamflow in Wisconsin watersheds is demonstrated. Given the pronounced influence of seasonal hydrology in Wisconsin watersheds, the objective of this study is to elucidate the nature of temporal (annual, seasonal, and monthly) changes in runoff. Considerable temporal and regional variability was found in annual and seasonal streamflow changes between the two historic periods 1951‐1980 and 1981‐2010 considered in the study. For example, the northern watersheds show relatively small changes in streamflow discharge ranging from ?6.0 to 4.2%, while the southern watersheds show relatively large increases in streamflow discharge ranging from 13.1 to 18.2%. To apportion streamflow changes to climate and nonclimatic factors, a method based on potential evapotranspiration changes is demonstrated. Results show that nonclimatic factors account for more than 60% of changes in annual runoff in Wisconsin watersheds considered in the study.     

Climatic Fluctuations and Forecasting of Streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin1

Abstract:  Water‐resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water‐resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25‐ to 30‐year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R² value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R² value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15.     

Sensitivity of Stream flow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed1

Dai, Zhaohua, Carl C. Trettin, Changsheng Li, Devendra M. Amatya, Ge Sun, and Harbin Li, 2010. Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00474.x Abstract: A physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, was used to evaluate the effects of altered temperature and precipitation regimes on the streamflow and water table in a forested watershed on the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain. The model calibration and validation against both streamflow and water table depth showed that the MIKE SHE was applicable for predicting the streamflow and water table dynamics for this watershed with an acceptable model efficiency (E > 0.5 for daily streamflow and >0.75 for monthly streamflow). The simulation results from changing temperature and precipitation scenarios indicate that climate change influences both streamflow and water table in the forested watershed. Compared to current climate conditions, the annual average streamflow increased or decreased by 2.4% with one percentage increase or decrease in precipitation; a quadratic polynomial relationship between changes in water table depth (cm) and precipitation (%) was found. The annual average water table depth and annual average streamflow linearly decreased with an increase in temperature within the range of temperature change scenarios (0-6°C). The simulation results from the potential climate change scenarios indicate that future climate change will substantially impact the hydrological regime of upland and wetland forests on the coastal plain with corresponding implications to altered ecosystem functions that are dependent on water.     

A Fully Distributed Implementation of Mean Annual StreamFlow Regional Regression Equations1

Abstract: Estimates of mean annual streamflow are needed for a variety of hydrologic assessments. Away from gage locations, regional regression equations that are a function of upstream area, precipitation, and temperature are commonly used. Geographic information systems technology has facilitated their use for projects, but traditional approaches using the polygon overlay operator have been too inefficient for national scale applications. As an alternative, the Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used as a framework for a fully distributed implementation of mean annual streamflow regional regression equations. The raster “flow accumulation” operator was used to efficiently achieve spatially continuous parameterization of the equations for every 30 m grid cell of the conterminous United States (U.S.). Results were confirmed by comparing with measured flows at stations of the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network, and their applications value demonstrated in the development of a national geospatial hydropower assessment. Interactive tools at the EDNA website make possible the fast and efficient query of mean annual streamflow for any location in the conterminous U.S., providing a valuable complement to other national initiatives (StreamStats and the National Hydrography Dataset Plus).     

Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model

Fire is a primary agent of landcover transformation in California semi-arid shrubland watersheds, however few studies have examined the impacts of fire and post-fire succession on streamflow dynamics in these basins. While it may seem intuitive that larger fires will have a greater impact on streamflow response than smaller fires in these watersheds, the nature of these relationships has not been determined. The effects of fire size on seasonal and annual streamflow responses were investigated for a medium-sized basin in central California using a modified version of the MIKE SHE model which had been previously calibrated and tested for this watershed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. Model simulations were made for two contrasting periods, wet and dry, in order to assess whether fire size effects varied with weather regime. Results indicated that seasonal and annual streamflow response increased nearly linearly with fire size in a given year under both regimes. Annual flow response was generally higher in wetter years for both weather regimes, however a clear trend was confounded by the effect of stand age. These results expand our understanding of the effects of fire size on hydrologic response in chaparral watersheds, but it is important to note that the majority of model predictions were largely indistinguishable from the predictive uncertainty associated with the calibrated model - a key finding that highlights the importance of analyzing hydrologic predictions for altered landcover conditions in the context of model uncertainty. Future work is needed to examine how alternative decisions (e.g., different likelihood measures) may influence GLUE-based MIKE SHE streamflow predictions following different size fires, and how the effect of fire size on streamflow varies with other factors such as fire location.     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

RELATION OF NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS TO BASEFLOW IN THE RACCOON RIVER,IOWA1

ABSTRACT: Excessive nitrate‐nitrogen (nitrate) export from the Raccoon River in west central Iowa is an environmental concern to downstream receptors. The 1972 to 2000 record of daily streamflow and the results from 981 nitrate measurements were examined to describe the relation of nitrate to streamflow in the Raccoon River. No long term trends in streamflow and nitrate concentrations were noted in the 28‐year record. Strong seasonal patterns were evident in nitrate concentrations, with higher concentrations occurring in spring and fall. Nitrate concentrations were linearly related to streamflow at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. At all time scales evaluated, the relation was improved when baseflow was used as the discharge variable instead of total streamflow. Nitrate concentrations were found to be highly stratified according to flow, but there was little relation of nitrate to streamflow within each flow range. Simple linear regression models developed to predict monthly mean nitrate concentrations explained as much as 76 percent of the variability in the monthly nitrate concentration data for 2001. Extrapolation of current nitrate baseflow relations to historical conditions in the Raccoon River revealed that increasing baseflow over the 20th century could account for a measurable increase in nitrate concentrations.     

SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

CHAPARRAL CONTROL IN MOSAIC PATTERN INCREASED STREAMFLOW AND MITIGATED NITRATE LOSS IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: In a 16-year paired watershed study in Arizona, a 303-acre chaparral watershed was treated by helicopter in a mosaic pattern (55 percent of watershed) with tebuthiuron herbicide pellets to control the moderately dense, heavy water-using chaparral. The objective was to determine if annual stream discharge could be increased without degrading other resource values. An adjacent untreated chaparral watershed served as the control on which to base the water quantity and quality treatment effects. Annual streamflow was increased by 1.5 to 5 inches over a seven-year evaluation period. The streamflow increase was accompanied by a small but statistically significant increase in nitrate concentration. The relatively small nitrate response was attributed to the mosaic treatment. Nitrate released from the converted areas was diluted by streamflow from untreated areas, thereby reducing nitrate concentrations in streamflow at the watershed outlet.     

Impact of Length of Dataset on Streamflow Calibration Parameters and Performance of APEX Model

Due to resource constraints, long‐term monitoring data for calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models are rare. As a result, most models are calibrated and, if possible, validated using limited measured data. However, little research has been done to determine the impact of length of available calibration data on model parameterization and performance. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of length of calibration data (LCD) on parameterization and performance of the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model for predicting daily, monthly, and annual streamflow. Long‐term (1984‐2015) measured daily streamflow data from Rock Creek watershed, an agricultural watershed in northern Ohio, were used for this study. Data were divided into five Short (5‐year), two Medium (15‐year), and one Long (25‐year) streamflow calibration data scenarios. All LCD scenarios were calibrated and validated at three time steps: daily, monthly, and annual. Results showed LCD affected the ability of the model to accurately capture temporal variability in simulated streamflow. However, overall average streamflow, water budgets, and crop yields were simulated reasonably well for all LCD scenarios.     

Hydrologic Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Snow‐Dominated Rocky Mountain Watershed,Montana, U.S.A.1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow‐dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high‐elevation watershed with ～85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash‐Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression‐based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.     

Section 404 Permitting in Coastal Texas: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship Between Peak Streamflow and Wetland Alteration

As early as the passage of the 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act the U.S. government has sought to protect the nation’s water resources through regulatory tools. While there has been a large amount of research on wetlands and wetland mitigation, very little is known about the impact of Section 404 permitting on water quantity. This research examines the impact of Section 404 permit types on peak annual streamflow in Coastal Texas from 1996 to 2003. Results of cross-sectional time-series regression analyses indicate that all four permit types have positive and significant effects on peak streamflow. These effects also vary by permit type, with Individual permits having the highest per-permit impact on peak annual flow.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF GROUND WATER PUMPAGE ON LOW-FLOW HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Ground-water pumpage withdrew 57 cubic feet per second from aquifers beneath the Yahara River Basin in 1970. Forty-six cubic feet per second were exported by the diversion of treated wastewater from the drainage basin. The low-flow hydrology of the upper Yahara River has been impacted by this diversion. Prior to 1959, the wastewater was discharged into the river, augmenting the baseflow during low-flow periods. As much as 85% of streamflow was due to effluent discharge. In 1959 the wastewater was transferred from the river basin. The result was a decrease of about one-third in mean annual streamflow, and a decrease of more than 50% in the 7Q₂ and 7Q₁₀. Regression analysis showed the annual 7-day low-flow and 60-day low-flow have a statistically significant correlation with mean annual flow. Using predictions of future mean annual discharge of the river with increasing interbasin transfers, it is shown that by 1990 there is a significant probability that in some years the 60-day low-flow in the river will be zero.     

SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED PRECIPITATION ON GROUND WATER AND STREAMFLOW IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: The Nebraska Sand Hills have a unique hydrologic system with very little runoff and thick aquifers that constantly supply water to rivers, lakes, and wetlands. A ground water flow model was developed to determine the interactions between ground water and streamflow and to simulate the changes in ground water systems by reduced precipitation. The numerical modeling method includes a water balance model for the vadose zone and MOD‐FLOW for the saturated zone. The modeling results indicated that, between 1979 and 1990, 13 percent of the annual precipitation recharged to the aquifer and annual ground water loss by evapotranspiration (ET) was only about one‐fourth of this recharge. Ground water discharge to rivers accounts for about 96 percent of the streamflow in the Dismal and Middle Loup rivers. When precipitation decreased by half the average amount of the 1979 to 1990 period, the average decline of water table over the study area was 0.89 m, and the streamflow was about 87 percent of the present rate. This decline of the water table results in significant reductions in ET directly from ground water and so a significant portion of the streamflow is maintained by capture of the salvaged ET.     

STREAMFLOW TRENDS IN WISCONSIN'S DRIFTLESS AREA1

ABSTRACT: Trends in streamflow characteristics were analyzed for streams in southwestern Wisconsin's Driftless Area by using data at selected gaging stations. The analyses indicate that annual low flows have increased significantly, whereas annual flood peaks have decreased. The same trends were not observed for forested areas of northern Wisconsin. Streamflow trends for other streams in southeastern Wisconsin draining predominantly agricultural land were similar to trends for Driftless Area streams for annual low flows. The causes for the trends are not well understood nor are the effects. Trends in annual precipitation do not explain the observed trends in streamflow. Other studies have found that erosion rates decreased significantly in the Driftless Area, and have attributed this reduction to a change of agricultural practices, which increase infiltration, decrease flood peaks, and increase low flows.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.