The dimensions of land use change in rural landscapes: lessons learnt from the GB Countryside Surveys

Rural landscapes are highly dynamic and their change impacts on a number of ecological processes such as the dynamics of biodiversity. Although a substantial amount of research has focused on quantifying these changes and their impact on biodiversity, most studies have focused on single dimensions of land use change. This lack of integration in land use change studies can be explained by the fact that data on the spatial, temporal, and ecological dimensions of land use are seldom available for the same geographical location. In this paper, the benefits of taking into account these three dimensions are illustrated with results derived from the Great Britain Countryside Surveys (CS), a large-scale monitoring programme designed to assess change in the extent and ecological condition of British habitats. The overview of CS results presented in this paper shows that (1) changes in land use composition will translate into a variety of spatial patterns; (2) the temporal stability of land use is often lower than can be expected; and (3) there can be large-scale shifts in the ecological condition of the land use types that form our rural landscapes. The benefits of integrated rural landscape studies are discussed in the context of other national monitoring programmes.     

MINIMIZING THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION ON LONG TERM RUNOFF1

Increasing concern about the problems caused by urban sprawl has encouraged development and implementation of smart growth approaches to land use management. One of the goals of smart growth is water resources protection, in particular minimizing the runoff impact of urbanization. To investigate the magnitude of the potential benefits of land use planning for water resources protection, possible runoff impacts of historical and projected urbanization were estimated for two watersheds in Indiana and Michigan using a long term hydrological impact analysis model. An optimization component allowed selection of land use change placements that minimize runoff increase. Optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by as much as 4.9 percent from 1973 to 1997 in the Indiana study watershed. For nonsprawl and sprawl scenarios in the Michigan watershed for 1978 to 2040, optimizing land use change placement would have reduced runoff increase by 12.3 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively. The work presented here illustrates both an approach to assessing the magnitude of the impact of smart growth and the significant potential scale of smart growth in moderating runoff changes that result from urbanization. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning.     

Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe

BioScene (scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agriculture use in mountain areas in Europe) was a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework Programme, and aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe. The research took a case study approach to the analysis of the biodiversity processes and outcomes of different scenarios of agri-environmental change in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) covering the major biogeographical regions of Europe. The project was coordinated by Imperial College London, and each study area had a multidisciplinary team including ecologists and social and economic experts, which sought a comprehensive understanding of the drivers for change and their implications for sustainability. A key component was the sustainability assessment (SA) of the alternative scenarios. This article discusses the development and application of the SA methodology developed for BioScene. While the methodology was objectives-led, it was also strongly grounded in baseline ecological and socio-economic data. This article also describes the engagement of stakeholder panels in each study area and the use of causal chain analysis for understanding the likely implications for land use and biodiversity of strategic drivers of change under alternative scenarios for agriculture and rural policy and for biodiversity management. Finally, this article draws conclusions for the application of SA more widely, its use with scenarios, and the benefits of stakeholder engagement in the SA process.     

Comparing Environmental Conditions Using Indicators of Pollution Hazard

/ Land use/land cover classifications for 1973 and 1991, derived from the interpretation of satellite imagery, are quantified on the basis of biophysical land units in a study area in southeastern Australia. Nutrient export potentials are estimated for each land unit based on their composition of land use/land cover classes. Spatial and temporal comparisons are made of the land units based on the calculated pollution hazard indicators to provide an insight into changes in the state of the environment and the regional significance of land use changes. For example, one ecosystem, unique to the study, showed a large increase in pollution hazard over the study period as a manifestation of an 11-fold rise in cleared area and an expansion of cropping activities. The benefits to environmental management in general are discussed.KEY WORDS: Land cover change; Nutrient export; Environmental condition; Pollution hazard; Agricultural pollution; Nonpoint source pollution; Diffuse pollution; Environmental degradation     

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.     

ESTIMATING RESIDENTIAL FLOOD CONTROL BENEFITS USING IMPLICIT PRICE EQUATIONS1

ABSTRACT: An implicit price model relating residential lot value to price determining characteristics of land is developed to measure the benefits of a structural flood control project. Special attention is given to the selection of relevant price determining characteristics of residential lots. An implicit price equation is estimated for both the with and without project conditions. Flood damages are quantified through the use of a dummy variable indicating a flood plain location. The analysis shows that annual flood damages were reduced by $15,275.     

黑龙江垦区土地资源可持续利用研究

以黑龙江垦区土地资源利用为例,运用统计分析方法,结合土地利用变化幅度和土地利用动态度等分析指标,对黑龙江垦区土地利用现状与动态变化进行分析。在此基础上,提出了黑龙江垦区土地利用中存在的主要问题：耕地面积总量增加,但人均耕地面积下降;土地资源利用效益有待提高;土地质量逐年下降,生态环境趋于恶化;部分农场场址道路建设用地过大,土地浪费现象严重;土地后备资源日益匮乏,开发整理复垦难度大等5个方面,并提出了相关的对策建议。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF IMPACTS IN SMALL WATERSHEDS FOR FLOOD CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: An analogue method of ex post evaluation is proposed as a method of measuring the effectiveness of small watershed projects in obtaining flood control and economic benefits. Two watersheds were compared on a “with vs. without” project basis by both direct and indirect measurement of economic benefits. Direct measurements indicated that small watershed flood control projects did not generate the expected economic benefits. However, the indirect measurements of the same watersheds using land value enhancement as a surrogate suggested that the expected economic benefits were reflected in differential land values. The economic efficiency of small watershed projects should be measured ex ante and ex post on a “with vs. without” project basis rather than on a “before vs. after” basis whether using direct or surrogate variables.     

Land Management Restrictions and Options for Change in Perpetual Conservation Easements

Conservation organizations rely on conservation easements for diverse purposes, including protection of species and natural communities, working forests, and open space. This research investigated how perpetual conservation easements incorporated property rights, responsibilities, and options for change over time in land management. We compared 34 conservation easements held by one federal, three state, and four nonprofit organizations in Wisconsin. They incorporated six mechanisms for ongoing land management decision-making: management plans (74 %), modifications to permitted landowner uses with discretionary consent (65 %), amendment clauses (53 %), easement holder rights to conduct land management (50 %), reference to laws or policies as compliance terms (47 %), and conditional use permits (12 %). Easements with purposes to protect species and natural communities had more ecological monitoring rights, organizational control over land management, and mechanisms for change than easements with general open space purposes. Forestry purposes were associated with mechanisms for change but not necessarily with ecological monitoring rights or organizational control over land management. The Natural Resources Conservation Service-Wetland Reserve Program had a particularly consistent approach with high control over land use and some discretion to modify uses through permits. Conservation staff perceived a need to respond to changing social and ecological conditions but were divided on whether climate change was likely to negatively impact their conservation easements. Many conservation easements involved significant constraints on easement holders’ options for altering land management to achieve conservation purposes over time. This study suggests the need for greater attention to easement drafting, monitoring, and ongoing decision processes to ensure the public benefits of land conservation in changing landscapes.     

A conceptual framework of agricultural land use planning with BMP for integrated watershed management

Land use planning is an important element of the integrated watershed management approach. It not only influences the environmental processes such as soil and stream bed erosion, sediment and nutrient concentrations in streams, quality of surface and ground waters in a watershed, but also affects social and economic development in that region. Although its importance in achieving sustainable development has long been recognized, a land use planning methodology based on a systems approach involving realistic computational modeling and meta-heuristic optimization is still lacking in the current practice of integrated watershed management. The present study proposes a new approach which attempts to combine computational modeling of upland watershed processes, fluvial processes and modern heuristic optimization techniques to address the water-land use interrelationship in its full complexity. The best land use allocation is decided by a multi-objective function that minimizes sediment yields and nutrient concentrations as well as the total operation/implementation cost, while the water quality and the production benefits from agricultural exploitation are maximized. The proposed optimization strategy considers also the preferences of land owners. The runoff model AnnAGNPS (developed by USDA), and the channel network model CCHE1D (developed by NCCHE), are linked together to simulate sediment/pollutant transport process at watershed scale based on any assigned land use combination. The greedy randomized adaptive Tabu search heuristic is used to flip the land use options for finding an optimum combination of land use allocations. The approach is demonstrated by applying it to a demonstrative case study involving USDA Goodwin Creek experimental watershed located in northern Mississippi. The results show the improvement of the tradeoff between benefits and costs for the watershed, after implementing the proposed optimal land use planning.     

Belief network models of land manager decisions and land use change

A two-stage model of land use change is described, which is driven by the types of decisions that land managers make when changing their broad styles of use. The first stage uses decision modelling techniques to assess if a manager is currently satisfied with the present situation, when compared to various potential alternatives. If this evaluation indicates satisfaction, it is assumed that the present land use will continue. However, if it indicates dissatisfaction, Belief Network techniques are used to estimate, in more detail, both how dissatisfied the manager is and whether the costs of changing, from the present use to a potentially better one, will be out-weighed by the anticipated benefits. The proposed models can use a variety of cost and benefit criteria (e.g. financial, social and ecological). The approach is illustrated with a case-study of the factors that might influence changes from farming to forestry in marginal upland areas of the UK.     

Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using satellite remote sensing,GIS and stochastic modelling

Rapid land use change has taken place in many coastal regions of China such as the Zhujiang Delta over the past two decades due to accelerated industrialization and urbanization. In this paper, land use change dynamics were investigated by the combined use of satellite remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and stochastic modelling technologies. The results indicated that there has been a notable and uneven urban growth and a tremendous loss in cropland between 1989 and 1997. The land use change process has shown no sign of becoming stable. The study demonstrates that the integration of satellite remote sensing and GIS was an effective approach for analyzing the direction, rate, and spatial pattern of land use change. The further integration of these two technologies with Markov modelling was found to be beneficial in describing and analyzing land use change process.     

Cost‐benefit analysis of soil remediation in Israeli industrial zones

Industrial zones are the main source of soil pollution in Israel. Due to the upcoming approval of the bill on soil contamination and remediation in Israel, it is important to assess the economic feasibility of soil remediation. This study examines the economic feasibility of an extensive remediation project of all contaminated industrial zones in Israel. The estimated economic benefits include both direct benefits, resulting from the increase in the land value of the contaminated site, and indirect benefits, arising from the increase in nearby property values. A cost‐benefit analysis showed a cost benefit ratio of 1:14. Nonetheless, the direct benefits were found to be lower than the costs. Thus, the question of funding requires collaboration between government and the private sector.     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

PROTECTING BEIJLNG'S MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY THROUGH WATERSHED MANAGEMEN AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Watersheds above the Miyun reservoir, a principal source of surface water for Beijing, are designated to be managed for water production, but under the principle of multiple use. Because of the scarcity of arable land, these watersheds cannot be managed only for drinking water. Efforts are under way to reduce sediment delivery, improve the quality of water entering Miyun reservoir, and improve the welfare of watershed inhabitants. An economic appraisal of a watershed management project for the 3,298‐ha Shixia watershed above the Miyun reservoir, indicates a 24 percent economic rate of return on the investment made in the project. The net present value (NPV) of the project, calculated at a discount rate of 10 percent, is approximately US$3.49 million. Sensitivity analyses indicate that a doubling of labor costs lowers the NPV to US$2.07 million and a 10 percent decrease in benefits lowered the NPV to US$2.87. It is concluded that the implementation of conservation practices on the Shixia Demonstration Watershed represent an economically efficient use of resources.     

Evaluation model for developing,implementing, and assessing conservation education programs: Examples from Belize and Costa Rica

Evaluation of conservation education programs can: (1) provide accountability in demonstrating a program's worth, (2) offer an opportunity for receiving feedback and improving programs, (3) further our understanding of the process of program development, and (4) promote conservation education by substantiating claims about its benefits. The Planning-Process-Product systems evaluation model provides feedback needed for making decisions about the development, implementation, and outcome of a program. Planning evaluation was useful in assessing the needs, goals, opportunities, and constraints of a number of programs in Costa Rica and Belize, such as a forestry education project and a zoo outreach program. It provided a basis for making planning decisions incorporating specific objectives, such as the reforestation of a region or a change in knowledge and attitudes in program participants. Process evaluation provided a Costa Rican sustainable development program with feedback during its implementation and enabled it to modify and improve its newsletter for local farmers and its ecology classes for school children. Product evaluation assessed project accomplishments, such as the $700,000 raised by the Children's Rainforest group and the 20 miles of riparian land under conservation management as part of the Belize Community Baboon Sanctuary project. Outcomes are compared with the programs original monetary or land management objectives to determine the success of the programs and to provide feedback for improvement.     

Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.     

多目标排队决策法——在大连地区土地利用结构调整中的应用

本文采用多目标排队决策法对专家的咨询意见进行了定量处理,从各用地部门的经济、生态和社会效益出发,确定了他们的优先级,并结合土地利用现状对今后的土地利用结构作出了合理的调整规划设想。     

CHANGING NEAR‐STREAM LAND USE AND RWER CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY IN THE VENEZUELAN ANDES1

ABSTRACT: The shape of a river channel is linked to surrounding land use through interacting hydrologic and geologic processes. This study analyzes the relationship between the change in near‐stream land use and the shape of the adjacent river channel over time. Three watersheds in the foothills of the Venezuelan Andes that have experienced differing degrees of development were studied to determine river channel width, sinuosity, and position relative to surrounding land use. Change in land use over time was obtained from multiple‐date aerial photographs (1946 and 1980) referenced to 1996 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery, and verified by field inspection. Measurements of land‐use type and amount and river channel morphology from the two dates were made using geographic information system (GIS) methods. The three watersheds differed in the extent of deforestation, the location of remaining forested land, and how much land‐use change had already occurred by 1946. Change in river channel morphology was greatest at the most deforested sites. Valley shape and channel constraint also had a discernible effect on change in channel morphology. This study introduces a method for analyzing change in coupled terrestrial‐aquatic systems based on multiple‐date, remotely sensed data and GIS analysis of spatial properties. The results document human impacts on river channels through a comparison of multiple watersheds over a 35‐year time interval.     

From land cover change to land function dynamics: a major challenge to improve land characterization

Land cover change has always had a central role in land change science. This central role is largely the result of the possibilities to map and characterize land cover based on observations and remote sensing. This paper argues that more attention should be given to land use and land functions and linkages between these. Consideration of land functions that provide a wide range of goods and services makes more integrated assessments of land change possible. The increasing attention to multifunctional land use is another incentive to develop methods to assess changes in land functions. A number of methods to quantify and map the spatial extent of land use and land functions are discussed and the implications for modeling are identified based on recent model approaches in land change science. The mixed use of land cover, land use and land function in maps and models leads to inconsistencies in land change assessments. Explicit attention to the non-linear relations between land cover, land use and land function is essential to consistently address land change. New methods to map and quantify land function dynamics will enhance our ability to understand and model land system change and adequately inform policies and planning.