Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.     

Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of threatened medicinal orchid Satyrium nepalense D. Don in India

It is vital to understand the distribution area of a threatened plant species for its better conservation and management planning. Satyrium nepalense (family: Orchidaceae) is a threatened terrestrial orchid species with valuable medicinal and nutritional properties. The survival of S. nepalense in wild conditions has been challenged by increasing global surface temperature. Hence, understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is crucial to conserve and restore this species. In present study, Maxent species distribution modeling algorithm was used to simulate the current distribution of S. nepalense in India and predict the possible range shift in projected future climate scenarios. A set of 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database were used to predict the potential suitable habitats in current climatic condition and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios by integrating five General Circulation Models (GCMs) for future distribution modeling of species for the years 2050 and 2070. Furthermore, change analysis was performed to identify the suitable habitat in current and future climate for delineating range expansion (gain), contraction (loss), and stable (no change) habitats of species. The Maxent model predicted that?~?2.38% of the geographical area in India is presently climatically suitable for S. nepalense. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of studied species were the mean temperature of warmest quarter, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature seasonality. Under future climate change scenarios, the total suitable habitat of S. nepalense will increase slightly in the Himalayan region and likely to migrate towards northward, but in the Western Ghats region, the suitable areas will be lost severely. The net habitat loss under four RCP scenarios was estimated from 26 to 39% for the year 2050, which could further increase from 47 to 60% by the year 2070. The finding of the predictive Maxent modeling approach indicates that warming climates could significantly affect the potential habitats of S. nepalense and hence suitable conservation measures need to be taken to protect this threatened orchid species in wild conditions.

     

Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe

A climatic classification for Europe suitable for pesticide fate modelling was constructed using a 3-stage process involving the identification of key climatic variables, the extraction of the dominant modes of spatial variability in those variables and the use of k-means clustering to identify regions with similar climates. The procedure identified 16 coherent zones that reflect the variability of climate across Europe whilst maintaining a manageable number of zones for subsequent modelling studies. An analysis of basic climatic parameters for each zone demonstrates the success of the scheme in identifying distinct climatic regions. Objective criteria were used to identify one representative 26-year daily meteorological series from a European dataset for each zone. The representativeness of each series was then verified against the zonal classifications. These new FOOTPRINT climate zones provide a state-of-the-art objective classification of European climate complete with representative daily data that are suitable for use in pesticide fate modelling.     

The impact of climate change on three indicator Galliformes species in the northern highlands of Pakistan

The rise in global temperature is one of the main threats of extinction to many vulnerable species by the twenty-first century. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest-dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha, and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current (average for 1960–1990) and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (ii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to average lose around one-third (35%) in 2050 and one-half (47%) by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iii) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily?>?3000 m in the future. Our results help inform management plans and conservation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on three indicator Galliforms species in the NHP.

     

Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.     

The impact of UV-B radiation and ozone on terrestrial vegetation

Although terrestrial vegetation has been exposed to UV-B radiation and ozone over the course of evolutionary history, it is essential to view the effects on vegetation of changing levels of these factors in the context of other features of climate change, such as increasing CO(2) levels and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Much of our understanding of the impacts of increased UV-B and ozone levels has come from studies of the effects of each individual factor. While such information may be relevant to a wider understanding of the roles that these factors may play in climate change, experience has shown that the interactions of environmental stresses on vegetation are rarely predictable. A further limitation on the applicability of such information results from the methodologies used for exposing plants to either factor. Much of our information comes from growth chamber, greenhouse or field studies using experimental protocols that made little or no provision for the stochastic nature of the changes in UV-B and ozone levels at the earth's surface, and hence excluded the roles of repair mechanisms. As a result, our knowledge of dose-response relationships under true field conditions is both limited and fragmentary, given the wide range of sensitivities among species and cultivars. Adverse effects of increased levels of either factor on vegetation are qualitatively well established, but the quantitative relationships are far from clear. In both cases, sensitivity varies with stage of plant development. At the population and community levels, differential responses of species to either factor has been shown to result in changes in competitiveness and community structure. At the mechanistic level, ozone generally inhibits photosynthetic gas exchange under both controlled and field conditions, and although UV-B is also inhibitory in some species under controlled conditions, others appear to be indifferent, particularly in the field. Both factors affect metabolism; a common response is increased secondary metabolism leading to the accumulation of phenolic compounds that, in the case of UV-B, offer the leaf cell some protection from radiation. Virtually no information is available about the effects of simultaneous or sequential exposures. Since both increased surface UV-B and ozone exposures have spatial and temporal components, it is important to evaluate the different scenarios that may occur, bearing in mind that elevated daytime ozone levels will attenuate the UV-B reaching the surface to some extent. The experimentation needed to acquire unequivocal effects data that are relevant to field situations must therefore be carried out using technologies and protocols that focus on quantification of the interactions of UV-B and ozone themselves and their interactions with other environmental factors.     

General effects of climate change on Arctic fishes and fish populations

Projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are of great relevance to arctic freshwater ecosystems and biota. These will result in many direct and indirect effects upon the ecosystems and fish present therein. Shifts projected for fish populations will range from positive to negative in overall effect, differ among species and also among populations within species depending upon their biology and tolerances, and will be integrated by the fish within their local aquascapes. This results in a wide range of future possibilities for arctic freshwater and diadromous fishes. Owing to a dearth of basic knowledge regarding fish biology and habitat interactions in the north, complicated by scaling issues and uncertainty in future climate projections, only qualitative scenarios can be developed in most cases. This limits preparedness to meet challenges of climate change in the Arctic with respect to fish and fisheries.     

Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases

Global climate has changed since pre-industrial times. Atmospheric CO(2), a major greenhouse gas, has increased by nearly 30% and temperature has risen by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C. The intergovernmental panel on climate change predicts that with the current emission scenario, global mean temperature would rise between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees C by the year 2100. There are, however, many uncertainties that influence these predictions. Despite the significance of weather on plant diseases, comprehensive analysis of how climate change will influence plant diseases that impact primary production in agricultural systems is presently unavailable. Evaluation of the limited literature in this area suggests that the most likely impact of climate change will be felt in three areas: in losses from plant diseases, in the efficacy of disease management strategies and in the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Climate change could have positive, negative or no impact on individual plant diseases. More research is needed to obtain base-line information on different disease systems. Most plant disease models use different climatic variables and operate at a different spatial and temporal scale than do the global climate models. Improvements in methodology are necessary to realistically assess disease impacts at a global scale.     

Future climate scenarios and rainfall--runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system.     

The impact of climate change and aquatic salinization on mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

This paper investigates the possible impacts of climate change on aquatic salinity and mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. The impact analysis combines the salinity tolerance ranges of predominant mangrove species with aquatic salinity measures in 27 scenarios of climate change by 2050. The estimates indicate significant overall losses for Heritiera fomes; substantial gains for Excoecaria agallocha; modest changes for Avicennia alba, A. marina, A. officinalis, Ceriops decandra, and Sonneratia apetala; and mixed results for species combinations. Changes in mangrove stocks are likely to change the prospects for forest-based livelihoods. The implications for neighboring communities are assessed by computing changes in high-value mangrove species for the five sub-districts in the Sundarbans. The results of the impact analysis indicate highly varied patterns of gain and loss across the five sub-districts. Overall, however, the results suggest that salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strongly regressive impact on the value of timber stocks because of the loss of highest value timber species, Heritiera fomes. In addition, the augmented potential for honey production will likely increase conflicts between humans and wildlife in the region.     

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

An analysis of the climate parametrization scheme adopted by conventional forest gap models revealed that most models assume a constant climate and are difficult to calibrate consistently. Tree growth showed unrealistically sensitive threshold effects along ecological gradients of temperature and precipitation. A new parametrization was compared with its predecessors in terms of the model's capability to predict realistic steady state species compositions at three test sites in the Alps. Applying the new model variant ForClim to some climate-change scenarios suggests that forest gap models are highly sensitive to climate pametrizations, regardless of the realism with which they simulate forests for the current climate. Moreover, the precision of climate scenarios based on General Circulation Models (GCM), for example, falls short of ForClim's sensitivity. Climate-dependent processes in forest gap models should be rehearsed before these models are used in impact studies of climatic change.     

Nexus on climate change: agriculture and possible solution to cope future climate change stresses

The changing climate scenarios harshen the biotic stresses including boosting up the population of insect/pest and disease, uplifting weed growth, declining soil beneficial microbes, threaten pollinator, and boosting up abiotic stresses including harsh drought/waterlogging, extremisms in temperature, salinity/alkalinity, abrupt rainfall pattern)) and ulitamtely  affect the plant in multiple ways. This nexus review paper will cover four significant points viz (1) the possible impacts of climate change; as the world already facing the problem of food security, in such crucial period, climatic change severely affects all four dimensions of food security (from production to consumption) and will lead to malnutrition/malnourishment faced by low-income peoples. (2) How some major crops (wheat, cotton, rice, maize, and sugarcane) are affected by stress and their consequent loss. (3) How to develop a strategic work to limit crucial factors, like their significant role in climate-smart breeding, developing resilience to stresses, and idiotypic breeding. Additionally, there is an essence of improving food security, as much of our food is wasted before consumption for instance post-harvest losses. (4) Role of biotechnology and genetic engineering in adaptive introgression of the gene or developing plant transgenic against pests. As millions of dollars are invested in innovation and research to cope with future climate change stresses on a plant, hence community base adaptation of innovation is also considered an important factor in crop improvements. Because of such crucial predictions about the future impacts of climate change on agriculture, we must adopt measures to evolve crop.

     

Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.     

Microrefugia: Not for everyone

Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.     

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future.

Implications: Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.     

Climatic mapping to identify high-risk areas for Cylindrocladium quinqueseptatum leaf blight on eucalypts in mainland South East Asia and around the world

Cylindrocladium quinqueseptatum is a pathogen on a wide range of hosts. It affects at least 20 species of eucalypts and is an important causal agent of leaf blight of Eucalyptus camaldulensis in central and southern Vietnam. Results from previous studies and observations of broadscale infection patterns in mainland South East Asia were used to derive simple rules (i.e. mean minimum temperature of coldest month > or =16 degrees C and mean annual precipitation > or =1400 mm) to identify locations which are likely to have a high risk of C. quinqueseptatum leaf blight (CqLB). Climatic mapping programs, which include interpolated climatic data estimated for numerous locations, were used to map these high risk areas in Africa, Australia and Latin America as well as in South East Asia. The predicted high-risk areas included several regions where CqLB has already been reported and the maps generated suggested other areas which may be at risk under present climatic conditions given the presence of C. quinqueseptatum and susceptible hosts. Some simple climate change scenarios were also used to suggest areas in mainland South East Asia which may become vulnerable to CqLB over the next 50 years. It is concluded that climatic mapping programs can assist the broadscale evaluation of risk of CqLB infections, although it is recognised that more detailed models and survey information are also needed.     

Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors

The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. Effective mitigation of global climate change necessitates action in these sectors for which technology change options exist or are being developed. Most assessments of possible energy change options to date have neglected non-CO₂ air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing (RF). In a multi-pollutant approach, we apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the total RF from the global and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors. We assess the RF for 2 time horizons: 20- and 100-year that are relevant for understanding near-term and longer-term impacts of climate change, respectively. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO₂ RF is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO₂ warming impacts. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a potential major technology shift that would reduce ORT emissions by 50% with the replacement energy supplied either by a clean zero-emissions source (S1) or by the PG sector, which results in an estimated 20% penalty increase in emissions from this sector (S2). We examine cases where the technology shift is applied globally and in the U.S. only. The resultant RF relative to the present day control is negative (cooling) in all cases for both S1 and S2 scenarios, global and U.S. emissions, and 20- and 100-year time horizons. The net non-CO₂ RF is always important relative to the CO₂ RF and outweighs the CO₂ RF response in the S2 scenario for both time horizons. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles.     

Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines

Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila, Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change; however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors. This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005. Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10-y period (1996-2005). Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis. A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X), which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r2 = 0.377, p < 0.05). No significant correlation between dengue incidence and temperature was established (p > 0.05). Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns. Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended.