Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and in Europe, faster than population and economic growth. Hence, vigorous attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and vulnerability tend to change over many areas, due to a range of climatic and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific. Flooding is a complex phenomenon and there are several generating mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, ice jam. Projected climate-driven changes in future flood frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g., increasing flood magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by spring snowmelt. Climate change is likely to cause an increase of the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections of flood hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models, reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100 years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the control period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent in the future time horizon of concern. For a large part of the continent, large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future, warmer climate. Due to the large uncertainty of climate projections, it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure for redefining design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design floods using a “climate change factor” approach.     

River flood risk and adaptation in Europe—assessment of the present status

Flood disasters have had a devastating effect worldwide over the past century, both in terms of human suffering and material losses. The study of these events and development of more effective adaptation and mitigation policies has become a priority, both in Europe and other parts of the globe. This paper detects and presents the spatial distribution of river flood risks in Europe. The methodology we developed involves an assessment of three key risk components: exposure, vulnerability and hazard. A topography-based flood hazard map of Europe, identifying low-lying areas adjacent to rivers, is presented and used to identify risk, together with land-use data and damage-stage relationship for different land uses. The study covers river flood risk for the entire European continent. This methodology can be used to determine the level of future risk, using the estimations on Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability from specific climate and economic development models. Annual average flood damage is estimated for European regions, in absolute monetary terms and in % of regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The results highlight regions where the threat to the economy from river flood hazard is of major concern.     

Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

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Risks in urban rooftop agriculture: Assessing stakeholders’ perceptions to ensure efficient policymaking

Rooftop agriculture (RA) is an innovative form of urban agriculture that takes advantage of unused urban spaces while promoting local food production. However, the implementation of RA projects is limited due to stakeholders’ perceived risks. Such risks should be addressed and minimized in policymaking processes to ensure the sustainable deployment of RA initiatives. This paper evaluates the risks that stakeholders perceive in RA and compares these perceptions with the currently available knowledge, including scientific literature, practices and market trends. Qualitative interviews with 56 stakeholders from Berlin and Barcelona were analyzed for this purpose. The results show that perceived risks can be grouped into five main categories: i) risks associated with urban integration (e.g., conflicts with images of “agriculture”), ii) risks associated with the production system (e.g., gentrification potential), iii) risks associated with food products (e.g., soil-less growing techniques are “unnatural”), iv) environmental risks (e.g., limited organic certification) and v) economic risks (e.g., competition with other rooftop uses). These risks are primarily related to a lack of (scientific) knowledge, insufficient communication and non-integrative policymaking. We offer recommendations for efficient project design and policymaking processes. In particular, demonstration and dissemination activities as well as participatory policymaking can narrow the communication gap between RA developers and citizens.     

A methodological proposal for the evaluation of farmer’s adaptation to climate variability, mainly due to drought in watersheds in Central America

The current study shows the process and the results of a methodology proposed to contribute with the issue of how to evaluate the adaptation to climate variability and future climate change. The proposed methodology consists of a standard to evaluate farmer’s adaptation to climate variability, mainly due to drought in watersheds in Central America; and was created with contributions from experts and professionals around this region. The phases for this process were: (1) literature review about the topic, (2) development of a preliminary standard, (3) expert interviews for the evaluation of this preliminary standard, (4) construction of a standard to evaluate the issue of adaptation to climate variability emphasizing drought through contributions from experts and their preliminary evaluations, (5) applicability test of this standard for the evaluation of climate variability under real conditions and (6) application of this standard through a case study in the Aguas Calientes river sub-watershed in Nicaragua, which permanently undergoes drought problems and climate variability. This standard has five main principles that go from the general, considering regional and national policies and institutionalism, to the specifics at the level of watersheds. In addition to those principles, the standard contains ten criteria, 26 indicators and 51 verifiers distributed among the main five principles. In the process for testing this standard in the Aguas Calientes river watershed in Nicaragua, the score for the general applicability to this standard was middle-level (score of 3 in a scale of 1 to 5), although, for the main principles of this standard, the score was four (high).     

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation.     

Correction to: Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Section 3.4.2: Reference “Nicholas and Durham 2012” should have been cited in the last sentence. That is “Using a list of...     

Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and barriers to adaptation: lessons learned from an exploratory study in Vietnam

Southeast Asian countries are confronting climate variability, challenging agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods. However, little research effort has been devoted to exploring how farmers in those countries perceive climate variability and how the perceptions link to adaptive responses. This paper deploys information from three focus group discussions with 30 male farmers; and six in-depth interviews with one female and five male agricultural officers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Recorded 34-year meteorological data in the delta from 1978 to 2011 is also incorporated to demonstrate the actual climate variability of the region. We find that farmers are becoming increasingly conscious of local climate variability issues. However, they have limited understanding of the importance of adaptation to their livelihoods. They also have limited knowledge of where and who to contact for appropriate climate change adaptation information. No opinions about the link between global warming and local climate variability and change were observed. Casual observation via public media and personal experience dominated farmers’ sources of information. Barriers to farmers’ adaptation are not exclusively restricted to socio-economic factors and resource constraints; e.g. land tenure, technical knowledge, market, social relationship, credit, information, health care, and demographics. Maladaptation, habit, and the perception of the importance of climate variability and adaptation are found as additional constraints. Observed differences in farmers’ and agricultural officers’ perspectives regarding barriers to farmers’ adaptation suggest important policy implications.     

Climate change and human health—what influences the adoption of adaptation programming in the United States public health system?

With growing evidence on how climate change impacts human health, public health agencies should develop adaptation programs focused on the impacts predicted to affect their jurisdictions. However, recent research indicates that public health agencies in the United States have done little to prepare the public for predicted climate change impacts, largely due in response to a lack of resources and priority. This study surveyed Environmental Health (EH) Directors across the United States to determine the extent to which individual level attitudes and beliefs influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programming in a department. The results indicate that an EH Director’s perception of the health risk posed by climate change explained 27% of the variance in the number of climate change impacts being addressed. Furthermore, the study found that environmental attitude and political views made strong, unique contributions in explaining the variance in risk perception. The results provide evidence that individual-level attitudes and beliefs, as well as organizational-level barriers influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programs in public health agencies. As a result, increasing EH Directors’ perception of risk by highlighting the likelihood and severity of localized impacts may increase the adoption of adaptation programming despite existing organizational barriers (e.g., lack of resources). Given the fact that risk perception has been shown to influence behavior across cultures, these findings are also useful for understanding the influence of individual decision makers on public health programming around the world.     

Natural dyes in modern textile dyehouses — how to combine experiences of two centuries to meet the demands of the future?

Plant materials which are available from farming regions in the moderate Austrian climate were investigated to serve as sources for natural dyes in textile dyeing operations. The extraction of the dye components from the plant materials was performed with boiling water without addition of chemicals or solvents. Based upon a rigorous selection of possible plant sources, a selection of natural dyestuffs applicable in a one-bath dyeing step was established. A broad variation in shade and color depth can be achieved by applying mixtures of natural dyestuffs in various combinations of iron- and alum-mordants. More than 60% of tested dyeings achieved acceptable fastness properties.On the basis of the developed natural dyestuff-based dyeing procedures, a comparison was made between the effluents from processes based upon them and those based upon the current ‘state-of-the-art’ techniques utilizing synthetic dyes. The comparison revealed that a lowering of the chemical load released with waste water can be expected by shifting to the plant-based dyes.     

Disproportionate costs in the EU Water Framework Directive—How to justify less stringent environmental objectives

The ambitious objective pursued by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is good status for all European waters. However, “less stringent environmental objectives” are permissible if the costs of achieving good status are disproportionately high. This exemption, if abused, carries the risk of watering down the ambitions of the Directive. Currently, no transparent, well-established, universally applicable method for routinely testing disproportionality exists throughout Europe. In this paper, such a method is developed for surface water bodies. The core idea is to determine a water body-specific disproportionality threshold which is then compared to the projected costs of achieving “good status/potential”. For the sake of practicability, the benchmark for disproportionality is estimated on the basis of prior expenditure on water quality enhancement. The paper argues that the proposed method combines both possible interpretations of (dis-)proportionality—affordability and cost-benefit considerations. Due to the method’s moderate data requirements it can be used readily in most German federal states and is transferable in principle to other EU Member States. The method was tested empirically for a river in the German federal state of Rhineland–Palatinate.     

How water saving irrigation contributes to climate change resilience—a case study of practices in China

A warming climate system is now an indisputable fact. An effective response to climate change should include both mitigation and adaptation. Water is essential to human survival and social development. But the shortage of water resources is a worldwide problem, which in China has been exacerbated by climate change. In order to find out how to cope with climate change successfully, this study, on the basis of China statistical data 2007–2009, quantitatively analyzes the role of water saving irrigation (WSI) in addressing climate change. The study shows that water saving irrigation (WSI) can serve as a useful enabler in dealing with climate change. From the perspective of mitigation, the 3-year total CO₂ emission reduction stands at 34.67 (21.83 ~ 47.48) Mt, about per year 11.56(7.28 ~ 15.83)Mt. From the perspective of adaptation, the total water saved from 2007 to 2009 stands at 96.85 (61.81 ~ 129.66) Gm³. If per unit farmland irrigation takes a 3-year average of agricultural water consumption, the water saved in 2009 is enough to irrigate additional 5.70 (3.80 ~ 7.80) Mhm², or to increase the grain yield by 22.04 (14.68 ~ 30.15) Gt. In addition, WSI can reduce soil salinization and conserve soil to sustain land productivity and environmental benefits. So WSI can be a positive measure in coping with climate change when it is rightly deployed. However, the costs and local context of such practices call for further studies.     

Hemosporidian blood parasites in seabirds—a comparative genetic study of species from Antarctic to tropical habitats

Whereas some bird species are heavily affected by blood parasites in the wild, others reportedly are not. Seabirds, in particular, are often free from blood parasites, even in the presence of potential vectors. By means of polymerase chain reaction, we amplified a DNA fragment from the cytochrome b gene to detect parasites of the genera Plasmodium, Leucocytozoon, and Haemoproteus in 14 seabird species, ranging from Antarctica to the tropical Indian Ocean. We did not detect parasites in 11 of these species, including one Antarctic, four subantarctic, two temperate, and four tropical species. On the other hand, two subantarctic species, thin-billed prions Pachyptila belcheri and dolphin gulls Larus scoresbii, were found infected. One of 28 thin-billed prions had a Plasmodium infection whose DNA sequence was identical to lineage P22 of Plasmodium relictum, and one of 20 dolphin gulls was infected with a Haemoproteus lineage which appears phylogenetically clustered with parasites species isolated from passeriform birds such as Haemoproteus lanii, Haemoproteus magnus, Haemoproteus fringillae, Haemoproteus sylvae, Haemoproteus payevskyi, and Haemoproteus belopolskyi. In addition, we found a high parasite prevalence in a single tropical species, the Christmas Island frigatebird Fregata andrewsi, where 56% of sampled adults were infected with Haemoproteus. The latter formed a monophyletic group that includes a Haemoproteus line from Eastern Asian black-tailed gulls Larus crassirostris. Our results are in agreement with those showing that (a) seabirds are poor in hemosporidians and (b) latitude could be a determining factor to predict the presence of hemosporidians in birds. However, further studies should explore the relative importance of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on parasite prevalence, in particular using phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses, systematic sampling and screening of vectors, and within-species comparisons.     

Emissions trading in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region—A modeling approach to trade decisions in Hong Kong's electricity industry

In 2002, the Hong Kong government and the Guangdong provincial government agreed to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, respirable suspended particulates, and volatile organic compounds by 40%, 20%, 55%, and 55%, respectively. There was strong public demand for the power stations in Hong Kong to reduce emissions. Emission caps were introduced, with allowances for the trading of emission credits. However, local power stations were using equipment built in the 1980s and 1990s, making it difficult for them to meet the new emissions requirements. The situation presented a new challenge, which involved a choice of either improving the existing equipment, or using emissions trading to meet the emission caps. This study reviews the background on emissions in Hong Kong and the surrounding regions, the “cap and trade” system, and the technologies used for power generation and emission reduction. A modeling approach is adopted to simulate the equipment, the electricity dispatching requirements, and the costs of either reducing emissions or trading emission credits. Data from a power station in Hong Kong was chosen for the simulation. Different options were simulated in the model to identify the optimal strategy. The results were then compared with the plan for emission reduction. This study demonstrates that a modeling approach using linear programming can analyze the complicated options involving emission reduction and investments to achieve an optimized business solution.     

How to uncoil your partner—“mating songs” in giant pill-millipedes (Diplopoda: Sphaerotheriida)

The stridulation of the giant pill-millipede genus Sphaerotherium from South Africa, one of only three groups of millipedes that produce sounds, was studied. One hundred one stridulation series of a total of nine different species (Sphaerotherium dorsaloide, Sphaerotherium hanstroemi, Sphaerotherium mahaium, Sphaerotherium similare, Sphaerotherium punctulatum, Sphaerotherium convexitarsum, Sphaerotherium dorsale, Sphaerotherium rotundatum, and Sphaerotherium perbrincki) were analyzed. Stridulation sounds are produced only with a special field of ribs on the posterior surface of the posterior telopod, which is actively moved over a field of sclerotized nubs on the inner margin of the anal shield. The Sphaerotherium male usually stridulates only when in contact with a female to initiate mating. This seems to prevent the female from volvating into a ball or stimulate the female to uncoil when already rolled in. The sound analyzes revealed a broad frequency spectrum in all stridulation sounds produced, without obvious differences in frequency distribution among species. However, the temporal pattern of the stridulation varies greatly between species and seems to be species-specific, arguing for a species recognition function of the stridulation during courtship behavior. A single species (S. punctulatum) was found to stridulate during mating while three species also show postcopulatory stridulation. Apparently, pill-millipedes are not capable of acoustic perception, as no hearing organs are known, indicating that the communication is mainly based on perception of temporal vibration patterns, and not of the acoustic signal itself. The need to overcome the rolling-in reflex of the female is developed as a hypothesis why stridulation exists only in millipedes able to coil into a ball, and apparently evolved four times independently in the superorder Oniscomorpha.