The impact of municipal solid waste management on greenhouse gas emissions in the United States

Technological advancements, environmental regulations, and emphasis on resource conservation and recovery have greatly reduced the environmental impacts of municipal solid waste (MSW) management, including emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study was conducted using a life-cycle methodology to track changes in GHG emissions during the past 25 years from the management of MSW in the United States. For the baseline year of 1974, MSW management consisted of limited recycling, combustion without energy recovery, and landfilling without gas collection or control. This was compared with data for 1980, 1990, and 1997, accounting for changes in MSW quantity, composition, management practices, and technology. Over time, the United States has moved toward increased recycling, composting, combustion (with energy recovery) and landfilling with gas recovery, control, and utilization. These changes were accounted for with historical data on MSW composition, quantities, management practices, and technological changes. Included in the analysis were the benefits of materials recycling and energy recovery to the extent that these displace virgin raw materials and fossil fuel electricity production, respectively. Carbon sinks associated with MSW management also were addressed. The results indicate that the MSW management actions taken by U.S. communities have significantly reduced potential GHG emissions despite an almost 2-fold increase in waste generation. GHG emissions from MSW management were estimated to be 36 million metric tons carbon equivalents (MMTCE) in 1974 and 8 MMTCE in 1997. If MSW were being managed today as it was in 1974, GHG emissions would be approximately 60 MMTCE.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian peat extraction, 1990-2000: a life-cycle analysis

This study uses life-cycle analysis to examine the net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Canadian peat industry for the period 1990-2000. GHG exchange is estimated for land-use change, peat extraction and processing, transport to market, and the in situ decomposition of extracted peat. The estimates, based on an additive GHG accounting model, show that the peat extraction life cycle emitted 0.54 x 10(6) t of GHG in 1990, increasing to 0.89 x 10(6) t in 2000 (expressed as CO2 equivalents using a 100-y time horizon). Peat decomposition associated with end use was the largest source of GHGs, comprising 71% of total emissions during this 11-y period. Land use change resulted in a switch of the peatlands from a GHG sink to a source and contributed an additional 15%. Peat transportation was responsible for 10% of total GHG emissions, and extraction and processing contributed 4%. It would take approximately 2000 y to restore the carbon pool to its original size if peatland restoration is successful and the cutover peatland once again becomes a net carbon sink.     

Environmental and economic evaluation of bioenergy in Ontario, Canada

We examined life cycle environmental and economic implications of two near-term scenarios for converting cellulosic biomass to energy, generating electricity from cofiring biomass in existing coal power plants, and producing ethanol from biomass in stand-alone facilities in Ontario, Canada. The study inventories near-term biomass supply in the province, quantifies environmental metrics associated with the use of agricultural residues for producing electricity and ethanol, determines the incremental costs of switching from fossil fuels to biomass, and compares the cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions abatement achieved through the use of the bioenergy. Implementing a biomass cofiring rate of 10% in existing coal-fired power plants would reduce annual GHG emissions by 2.3 million metric tons (t) of CO2 equivalent (7% of the province's coal power plant emissions). The substitution of gasoline with ethanol/gasoline blends would reduce annual provincial lightduty vehicle fleet emissions between 1.3 and 2.5 million t of CO2 equivalent (3.5-7% of fleet emissions). If biomass sources other than agricultural residues were used, additional emissions reductions could be realized. At current crude oil prices ($70/barrel) and levels of technology development of the bioenergy alternatives, the biomass electricity cofiring scenario analyzed is more cost-effective for mitigating GHG emissions ($22/t of CO2 equivalent for a 10% cofiring rate) than the stand-alone ethanol production scenario ($92/t of CO2 equivalent). The economics of biomass cofiring benefits from existing capital, whereas the cellulosic ethanol scenario does not. Notwithstanding this result, there are several factors that increase the attractiveness of ethanol. These include uncertainty in crude oil prices, potential for marked improvements in cellulosic ethanol technology and economics, the province's commitment to 5% ethanol content in gasoline, the possibility of ethanol production benefiting from existing capital, and there being few alternatives for moderate-to-large-scale GHG emissions reductions in the transportation sector.     

Note on In-Traffic Measurement of Airborne Tire-Wear Participate Debris

Measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) source emissions provides data for validation of GHG inventories, which provide the foundation for climate change mitigation. Two Toyota RAV4 electric vehicles were outfitted with high-precision instrumentation to determine spatial and temporal resolution of GHGs (e.g., nitrous oxide, methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and other gaseous species and particulate metrics found near emission sources. Mobile measurement platform (MMP) analytical performance was determined over relevant measurement time scales. Pollutant residence times through the sampling configuration were measured, ranging from 3 to 11 sec, enabling proper time alignment for spatial measurement of each respective analyte. Linear response range for GHG analytes was assessed across expected mixing ratio ranges, showing minimal regression and standard error differences between 5, 10, 30, and 60 sec sampling intervals and negligible differences between the two MMPs. GHG instrument drift shows deviation of less than 0.8% over a 24-hr measurement period. These MMPs were utilized in tracer-dilution experiments at a California landfill and natural gas compressor station (NGCS) to quantify CH₄ emissions. Replicate landfill measurements during October 2009 yielded annual CH₄ emissions estimates of 0.10 ± 0.01, 0.11 ± 0.01, and 0.12 ± 0.02 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MTCO₂E). These values compare favorably to California GHG Emissions Inventory figures for 2007, 2008, and 2009 of 0.123, 0.125, and 0.126 MTCO₂E/yr, respectively, for this facility. Measurements to quantify NGCS boosting facility-wide emissions, during June 2010 yielded an equivalent of 5400 ± 100 TCO₂E/yr under steady-state operation. However, measurements during condensate transfer without operational vapor recovery yield an instantaneous emission rate of 2–4 times greater, but was estimated to only add 12 TCO₂E/yr overall. This work displays the utility for mobile GHG measurements to validate existing measurement and modeling approaches, so emission inventory values can be confirmed and associated uncertainties reduced.

Implications:?Measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) source emissions provides data and validation for GHG inventories, the foundation for climate change mitigation. Mobile measurement platforms with robust analytical instrumentation completed tracer-dilution experiments in California at a landfill and natural gas compressor station (NGCS) to quantify CH₄ emissions. Data collected for landfill CH₄ agree with the current California emissions inventory, while NGCS data show the possible variability from this type of facility. This work displays the utility of mobile GHG measurements to validate existing measurement and modeling approaches, such that emission inventory values can be confirmed, associated uncertainties reduced, and mitigation efforts quantified.     

Preliminary investigation of greenhouse gas emissions from the environmental sector in Taiwan

The United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (UNFCCC) asks their Parties to submit a National Inventory Report (NIR) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on an annual basis. However, when many countries are quickly growing their economy, resulting in substantial GHG emissions, their inventory reporting systems either have not been established or been able to be linked to planning of mitigation measures at national administration levels. The present research was aimed to quantify the GHG emissions from an environmental sector in Taiwan and also to establish a linkage between the developed inventories and development of mitigation plans. The "environmental sector" consists of public service under jurisdiction of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration: landfilling, composting, waste transportation, wastewater treatment, night soil treatment, and solid waste incineration. The preliminary results were compared with that of the United States, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and Korea, considering the gaps in the scopes of the sectors. The GHG emissions from the Taiwanese environmental sector were mostly estimated by following the default methodology in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guideline, except that of night soil treatment and waste transportation that were modified or newly developed. The GHG emissions from the environmental sectors in 2004 were 10,225 kilotons of CO2 equivalent (kt CO2 Eq.). Landfilling (48.86%), solid waste incineration (27%), and wastewater treatment (21.5%) were the major contributors. Methane was the most significant GHG (70.6%), followed by carbon dioxide (27.8%) and nitrous oxide (1.6%). In summary, the GHG emissions estimated for the environmental sector in Taiwan provided reasonable preliminary results that were consistent and comparable with the existing authorized data. On the basis of the inventory results and the comparisons with the other countries, recommendations of mitigation plans were made, including wastewater and solid waste recycling, methane recovery for energy, and waste reduction/sorting.     

Trace gases and particulate matter emissions from wildfires and agricultural burning in Northeastern Mexico during the 2000 fire season

An inventory of air pollutants emitted from forest and agricultural fires in Northeastern Mexico for the period of January to August of 2000 is presented. The emissions estimates were calculated using an emissions factor methodology. The inventory accounts for the emission of carbon monoxide (CO), methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter (PM). Particulate matter emissions include estimates for fine PM and coarse PM. A total of 2479 wildfires were identified in the domain for the period of interest, which represented approximately 810,000 acres burned and 621,130 short tons emitted (81% being CO). The main source of information used to locate and estimate the extent of the fires came from satellite imagery. A geographic information system was used to determine the type of vegetation burned by each fire. More than 54% of the total area burned during the period of study was land on the State of Tamaulipas. However, >58% of the estimated emissions came from the State of Coahuila. This was because of the mix of vegetation types burned in each state. With respect to the temporal distribution, 76.9% of the fires occurred during the months of April and May consuming almost 78% of the total area burned during the period of study. Analysis of wind forward trajectories of air masses passing through the burned areas and 850-mb wind reanalyses indicate possible transboundary transport of the emissions from Mexico to the United States during the occurrence of the major wildfires identified.     

A Fuel-Based Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory

Abstract

A fuel-based methodology for calculating motor vehicle emission inventories is presented. In the fuel-based method, emission factors are normalized to fuel consumption and expressed as grams of pollutant emitted per gallon of gasoline burned. Fleet-average emission factors are calculated from the measured on-road emissions of a large, random sample of vehicles. Gasoline use is known at the state level from sales tax data, and may be disaggregated to individual air basins. A fuel-based motor vehicle CO inventory was calculated for the South Coast Air Basin in California for summer 1991. Emission factors were calculated from remote sensing measurements of more than 70,000 in-use vehicles. Stabilized exhaust emissions of CO were estimated to be 4400 tons/day for cars and 1500 tons/day for light-duty and medium- duty trucks, with an estimated uncertainty of ±20% for cars and ±30% for trucks. Total motor vehicle CO emissions, including incremental start emissions and emissions from heavy-duty vehicles were estimated to be 7900 tons/day. Fuelbased inventory estimates were greater than those of California's MVEI 7F model by factors of 2.2 for cars and 2.6 for trucks. A draft version of California's MVEI 7G model, which includes increased contributions from high-emitting vehicles and off-cycle emissions, predicted CO emissions which closely matched the fuel-based inventory. An analysis of CO mass emissions as a function of vehicle age revealed that cars and trucks which were ten or more years old were responsible for 58% of stabilized exhaust CO emissions from all cars and trucks.     

Trace Gases and Particulate Matter Emissions from Wildfires and Agricultural Burning in Northeastern Mexico during the 2000 Fire Season

Abstract

An inventory of air pollutants emitted from forest and agricultural fires in Northeastern Mexico for the period of January to August of 2000 is presented. The emissions estimates were calculated using an emissions factor methodology. The inventory accounts for the emission of carbon monoxide (CO), methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter (PM). Particulate matter emissions include estimates for fine PM and coarse PM. A total of 2479 wildfires were identified in the domain for the period of interest, which represented ~810,000 acres burned and 621,130 short tons emitted (81% being CO). The main source of information used to locate and estimate the extent of the fires came from satellite imagery. A geographic information system was used to determine the type of vegetation burned by each fire. More than 54% of the total area burned during the period of study was land on the State of Tamaulipas. However, >58% of the estimated emissions came from the State of Coahuila. This was because of the mix of vegetation types burned in each state. With respect to the temporal distribution, 76.9% of the fires occurred during the months of April and May consuming almost 78% of the total area burned during the period of study. Analysis of wind forward trajectories of air masses passing through the burned areas and 850-mb wind reanalyses indicate possible transboundary transport of the emissions from Mexico to the United States during the occurrence of the major wildfires identified.     

Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - how to achieve substantial CO(2) reductions?

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are a significant contributor to total Danish emissions. Consequently, much effort is currently given to the exploration of potential strategies to reduce agricultural emissions. This paper presents results from a study estimating agricultural GHG emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990–2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50–70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable, including mitigation measures in relation to the handling of manure and fertilisers, optimization of animal feeding, cropping practices, and land use changes with more organic farming, afforestation and energy crops. In addition, the bioenergy production may be increased significantly without reducing the food production, whereby Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance.     

Life cycle implications of urban green infrastructure

Low Impact Development (LID) is part of a new paradigm in urban water management that aims to decentralize water storage and movement functions within urban watersheds. LID strategies can restore ecosystem functions and reduce runoff loadings to municipal water pollution control facilities (WPCF). This research examines the avoided energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of select LID strategies using life cycle assessment (LCA) and a stochastic urban watershed model. We estimate annual energy savings and avoided GHG emissions of 7.3 GJ and 0.4 metric tons, respectively, for a LID strategy implemented in a neighborhood in New York City. Annual savings are small compared to the energy and GHG intensity of the LID materials, resulting in slow environmental payback times. This preliminary analysis suggests that if implemented throughout an urban watershed, LID strategies may have important energy cost savings to WPCF, and can make progress towards reducing their carbon footprint.     

Regional and sectoral assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in India

In this paper the authors have estimated for 1990 and 1995 the inventory of greenhouse gases CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O for India at a national and sub-regional district level. The district level estimates are important for improving the national inventories as well as for developing sound mitigation strategies at manageable smaller scales. Our estimates indicate that the total CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O emissions from India were 592.5, 17, 0.2 and 778, 18, 0.3 Tg in 1990 and 1995, respectively. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of these gases over this period were 6.3, 1.2 and 3.3%, respectively. The districts have been ranked according to their order of emissions and the relatively large emitters are termed as hotspots. A direct correlation between coal consumption and districts with high CO₂ emission was observed. CO₂ emission from the largest 10% emitters increased by 8.1% in 1995 with respect to 1990 and emissions from rest of the districts decreased over the same period, thereby indicating a skewed primary energy consumption pattern for the country. Livestock followed by rice cultivation were the dominant CH₄ emitting sources. The waste sector though a large CH₄ emitter in the developed countries, only contributed about 10% the total CH₄ emission from all sources as most of the waste generated in India is allowed to decompose aerobically. N₂O emissions from the use of nitrogen fertilizer were maximum in both the years (more than 60% of the total N₂O). High emission intensities, in terms of CO₂ equivalent, are in districts of Gangetic plains, delta areas, and the southern part of the country. These overlap with districts with large coal mines, mega power plants, intensive paddy cultivation and high fertilizer use. The study indicates that the 25 highest emitting districts account for more than 37% of all India CO₂ equivalent GHG emissions. Electric power generation has emerged as the dominant source of GHG emissions, followed by emissions from steel and cement plants. It is therefore suggested, to target for GHG mitigation, the 40 largest coal-based thermal plants, five largest steel plants and 15 largest cement plants in India as the first step.     

Relationship between carbon dioxide/methane emissions and the water quality/sediment characteristics of Taiwan's main rivers

River and sediment have unique carbon dynamics and are important sources of the dominant greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). To understand the relationship between CO2/CH4 emissions and water quality/sediment characteristics, we have investigated critical parameters in the river water. Eight parameters of water quality (dissolved oxygen, oxidation-reduction potential [ORP], chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand [BOD5], suspended solid, nitrate [NO3-], NH4+, and bacteria) and four sediment characteristics (total organic carbon [TOC], total nitrogen [T-N], NO3-, and ammonium [NH4+]) were measured in two of the larger rivers in Taiwan, and relevant environmental conditions were recorded. The experimental results indicated that CO2 emissions from the river were mainly affected by BOD5 concentrations and the levels of bacteria. CH4 emissions, on the other hand, were greatly affected by the ORP in the river. The correlation between CO2 emissions and sediment characteristics was insignificant (R2 < 0.3). However, TOC and T-N in the sediment may lead to increases in CH4 emissions into the atmosphere. A deeper analysis of the relationship between the different parameters and GHG emissions by ANOVA and the multiple regression method revealed that CO2 emission (y) was significantly related to bacteria number (x1) and BOD concentration (X2). The regression equation takes the form y = 0.00032x1 + 3.18089x2 + 25.37304. Also, the regression relationship between CH4 emission (y) and ORP (x) in the river can be described as y = -0.825216x + 169.02257. The relationship between CH4 emission and sediment characteristics may be described as y = 5.073962x1(TOC) + 2.871245x2(T-N) - 12.3262. Extra sampling data were collected to examine the feasibility of the developed multiple regression equations. The experimental results suggest that the emissions of such GHGs as CO2 and CH4 from rivers can be predicted using the regression equations developed here. Moreover, the emissions may be reduced by manipulating the proper factors.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from waste management--assessment of quantification methods

Of the many sources of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, solid waste is the only one for which management decisions are undertaken primarily by municipal governments themselves and is hence often the largest component of cities' corporate inventories. It is essential that decision-makers select an appropriate quantification methodology and have an appreciation of methodological strengths and shortcomings. This work compares four different waste emissions quantification methods, including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1996 guidelines, IPCC 2006 guidelines, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Waste Reduction Model (WARM), and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities-Partners for Climate Protection (FCM-PCP) quantification tool. Waste disposal data for the greater Toronto area (GTA) in 2005 are used for all methodologies; treatment options (including landfill, incineration, compost, and anaerobic digestion) are examined where available in methodologies. Landfill was shown to be the greatest source of GHG emissions, contributing more than three-quarters of total emissions associated with waste management. Results from the different landfill gas (LFG) quantification approaches ranged from an emissions source of 557 kt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) (FCM-PCP) to a carbon sink of -53 kt CO2e (EPA WARM). Similar values were obtained between IPCC approaches. The IPCC 2006 method was found to be more appropriate for inventorying applications because it uses a waste-in-place (WIP) approach, rather than a methane commitment (MC) approach, despite perceived onerous data requirements for WIP. MC approaches were found to be useful from a planning standpoint; however, uncertainty associated with their projections of future parameter values limits their applicability for GHG inventorying. MC and WIP methods provided similar results in this case study; however, this is case specific because of similarity in assumptions of present and future landfill parameters and quantities of annual waste deposited in recent years being relatively consistent.     

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O. It can also be a sink for CO(2) through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH(4) consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N(2)O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH(4) and N(2)O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint.     

Emissions and demonstration of an emission control technology for small two-stroke utility engines

Small utility engines represent an important contribution to the emissions inventory and have been subjected to increasingly stringent regulations in recent years. For this project, a Tanaka two-stroke engine was tested in its original condition and with a modified fuel/oil injection system. The modified fuel/oil injection system applied to the Tanaka two-stroke engine resulted in significant emissions reductions of approximately 52% for carbon monoxide (CO), 70% for total hydrocarbons (THC), 70% for particulate matter (PM), and 67% for the regulated THC + nitrogen oxides metric. This technology met the California Air Resources Board's 2000 model-year regulations for all pollutants, with the exception of slightly higher PM emissions. Two additional two-stroke engines were tested under a new condition and after at least 100 hr of use to examine the effects of deterioration on in-use, two-stroke engines. For one engine, CO and PM emissions more than tripled after 162 hr of operation in the field, with smaller increases also observed for THC (20%). For the second engine, significant repairs were required throughout the 100 operating hours, which counteracted the effects of the emissions deterioration and resulted in lower CO and THC emissions.     

Carbon mitigation by the construction industry in China: a perspective of efficiency and costs

Evaluating carbon emission performance of the construction industry is a significant prerequisite for developing regional carbon mitigation plans. Taking environmental and technical heterogeneities into account, this paper employed a meta-frontier method to measure the carbon emission efficiency, carbon mitigation potential, and costs of the construction sector in different regions of China from 2005 to 2016. The empirical results show that substantial disparities in carbon emission efficiency exist in the construction industry. The total carbon mitigation potential of this sector was 206.76 million tons, with the Lower Yellow river area accounting for the largest proportion at 27%. Meanwhile, the carbon mitigation costs of this sector increased from 584.94 to 1273.30 yuan/ton during 2005–2016. The highest mitigation costs occur in the Lower Yangtze River area and the South Coastal area, indicating it was more costly in these areas to conduct additional carbon emissions mitigation. The results could facilitate the policy formulation on regional-oriented carbon emissions mitigation of the construction industry in China.

     

Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility

Sub-regional and sector level distribution of SO₂ and NO_x emissions inventories for India have been estimated for all the 466 Indian districts using base data for years 1990 and 1995. Although, national level emissions provide general guidelines for assessing mitigation alternatives, but significant regional and sectoral variability exist in Indian emissions. Districts reasonably capture this variability to a fine grid as 80% of these districts are smaller than 1°×1° resolution with 60% being smaller than even 1/2°×1/2°. Moreover, districts in India have well-established administrative and institutional mechanisms that would be useful for implementing and monitoring measures. District level emission estimates thus offer a finer regional scale inventory covering the combined interests of the scientific community and policy makers. The inventory assessment methodology adopted is similar to that prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The sectoral decomposition at district level includes emissions from fossil fuel combustion, non-energy emissions from industrial activities and agriculture. Total SO₂ and NO_x emissions from India were 3542 and 2636 Gg, respectively (1990) and 4638 and 3462 Gg (1995) growing at annual rate of around 5.5%. The sectoral composition of SO₂ emissions indicates a predominance of electric power generation sector (46%). Power and transport sector emissions equally dominate NO_x emissions contributing nearly 30% each. However, majority of power plants are situated in predominantly rural districts while the latter are concentrated in large urban centers. Mitigation efforts for transport sector NO_x emissions would therefore be higher. The district level analysis indicates diverse spatial distribution with the top 5% emitting districts contributing 46.5 and 33.3% of total national SO₂ and NO_x emissions, respectively. This skewed emission pattern, with a few districts, sectors and point sources emitting significant SO₂ and NO_x, offers mitigation flexibility to policy makers for cost-effective mitigation.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of traffic emissions in over 5000 municipal districts in Brazil

Exposure to traffic emission is harmful to human health. Emission inventories are essential to public health policies aiming at protecting human health, especially in areas with incomplete or nonexistent air pollution monitoring networks. In Brazil, for example, only 1.7% of municipal districts have a monitoring network, and only a few studies have reported data on vehicle emission inventories. No studies have presented emission inventories by municipality. In this study, we predicted vehicular emissions for 5570 municipal districts in Brazil during the period 2001–2012. We used a top-down method to estimate emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the pollutant with the highest emissions, with approximately 190 million tons per year during the period 2001–2012). For the other traffic-related pollutants, we predicted annual emissions of 1.5 million tons for carbon monoxide (CO), 1.2 million tons of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 209,000 tons of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), 58,000 tons of particulate matter (PM), and 42,000 tons for methane (CH₄). From 2001 to 2012, CO, NMHC, and PM emissions decreased by 41, 33, and 47%, respectively, whereas those CH₄, NO_x, and CO₂ increased by 2, 4, and 84%, respectively. We estimated uncertainties in our study and found that NO_x was the pollutant with the lowest percentage difference, 8%, and NMHC with the highest one, 30%. For CO, CH₄, CO₂, and PM, the values were 22, 14, 21, and 20%, respectively. Finally, we found that during 2001 and 2012 emissions increased in the Northwest and Northeast. In contrast, pollutant emissions, except for CO₂, decreased in the Southeast, South, and part of Midwest. Our predictions can be critical to efforts developing cost-effective public policies tailored to individual municipal districts in Brazil.

Implications: Emission inventories may be an alternative approach to provide data for air quality forecasting in areas where air quality data are not available. This approach can be an effective tool in developing spatially resolved emission inventories.     

Estimating and comparing greenhouse gas emissions with their uncertainties using different methods: A case study for an energy supply utility

Energy supply utilities release significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. It is essential to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties, for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be calculated by an activity-based method (i.e., fuel consumption) and continuous emission measurement (CEM). In this study, GHG emissions such as CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O are estimated for a heat generation utility, which uses bituminous coal as fuel, by applying both the activity-based method and CEM. CO₂ emissions by the activity-based method are 12–19% less than that by the CEM, while N₂O and CH₄ emissions by the activity-based method are two orders of magnitude and 60% less than those by the CEM, respectively. Comparing GHG emissions (as CO₂ equivalent) from both methods, total GHG emissions by the activity-based methods are 12–27% lower than that by the CEM, as CO₂ and N₂O emissions are lower than those by the CEM. Results from uncertainty estimation show that uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the activity-based methods range from 3.4% to about 20%, from 67% to 900%, and from about 70% to about 200% for CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄, respectively, while uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the CEM range from 4% to 4.5%. For the activity-based methods, an uncertainty in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default net calorific value (NCV) is the major uncertainty contributor to CO₂ emissions, while an uncertainty in the IPCC default emission factor is the major uncertainty contributor to CH₄ and N₂O emissions. For the CEM, an uncertainty in volumetric flow measurement, especially for the distribution of the volumetric flow rate in a stack, is the major uncertainty contributor to all GHG emissions, while uncertainties in concentration measurements contribute a little to uncertainties in the GHG emissions.

Implications:Energy supply utilities contribute a significant portion of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is important to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be estimated by an activity-based method and by continuous emission measurement (CEM), yet little study has been done to calculate GHG emissions with uncertainty analysis. This study estimates GHG emissions and their uncertainties, and also identifies major uncertainty contributors for each method.     

Modeling and direct sensitivity analysis of biogenic emissions impacts on regional ozone formation in the Mexico-U.S. border area

A spatially and temporally resolved biogenic hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions inventory has been developed for a region along the Mexico-U.S. border area. Average daily biogenic non-methane organic gases (NMOG) emissions for the 1700 x 1000 km2 domain were estimated at 23,800 metric tons/day (62% from Mexico and 38% from the United States), and biogenic NOx was estimated at 1230 metric tons/day (54% from Mexico and 46% from the United States) for the July 18-20, 1993, ozone episode. The biogenic NMOG represented 74% of the total NMOG emissions, and biogenic NOx was 14% of the total NOx. The CIT photochemical airshed model was used to assess how biogenic emissions impact air quality. Predicted ground-level ozone increased by 5-10 ppb in most rural areas, 10-20 ppb near urban centers, and 20-30 ppb immediately downwind of the urban centers compared to simulations in which only anthropogenic emissions were used. A sensitivity analysis of predicted ozone concentration to emissions was performed using the decoupled direct method for three dimensional air quality models (DDM-3D). The highest positive sensitivity of ground-level ozone concentration to biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic VOC emissions results in increasing ozone concentrations) was predicted to be in locations with high NOx levels, (i.e., the urban areas). One urban center--Houston--was predicted to have a slight negative sensitivity to biogenic NO emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic NO emissions results in decreasing local ozone concentrations). The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source VOC emissions, all positive, were mainly in the urban areas. The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source NOx emissions were predicted in both urban (either positive or negative sensitivities) and rural (positive sensitivities) locations.