Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production

Besides climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological risks, the consequences on water quality is just beginning to be studied. This review aims at proposing a synthesis of the most recent existing interdisciplinary literature on the topic. After a short presentation about the role of the main factors (warming and consequences of extreme events) explaining climate change effects on water quality, the focus will be on two main points. First, the impacts on water quality of resources (rivers and lakes) modifying parameters values (physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters) are considered. Then, the expected impacts on drinking water production and quality of supplied water are discussed. The main conclusion which can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact.     

An ecohydrological adaptive approach to a salt lake in the semiarid grasslands of Argentina: future management perspectives

Past extreme hydrological events, future climate change scenarios and approaches for lake management were studied in the Argentinean Pampa. Anthropogenic climate change will impact water bodies and create enormous challenges for water management. Adaptation strategies are needed urgently to deal with the uncertainties originated by climate change on inland or coastal basins. Only a few studies have addressed practical strategies to mitigate global change impacts on lakes and practically none in South America. The purpose of this work was to discuss management options and seek better adaptive alternatives for the nature reserve Lake Chasicó, and to propose future management experiments and actions at a regional level. The ecohydrological approach is likely to increase the ecological resilience of the lake, dampen climate-driven hydrological variations and reduce eutrophication problems. Future projects should include wetland creation, fish management, water quality control, engineering work studies and education programs. Ecohydrology as an integrative natural science should be considered as a water management strategy to build ecological resilience into water bodies. The building of social-ecological resilience is also crucial for the stability of coupled human-ecological systems. The integration of natural and social sciences into sustainability approaches represents a robust strategy for adapting to climate change.     

鄱阳湖湿地现状问题与未来趋势

近年来鄱阳湖秋冬季水文呈干枯态势,湿地生态系统及其关键因子也发生了变化。如何合理保护和利用鄱阳湖湿地引起各方关注。系统综述了鄱阳湖湿地生态系统在水文、江湖关系、水质、水鸟栖息地、渔业资源等方面存在的问题,梳理了引起这些问题的外部和内部因素。针对"一切照常"和"水位调控"两种情景,预测了湿地未来的变化趋势,并指出了当前研究中的不确定性问题。研究认为:鄱阳湖秋冬季的低枯水位,对水质、湿地植被、水鸟栖息地以及鱼类食物资源和"三场"(即:产卵场、洄游通道、索饵场)产生了一定不利影响。建议通过模型模拟和情景预测来分析不同调控方案的影响效果,优化调控方案、将生态系统的负面影响降到最低。     

Climate change and climate-induced hot spots in forest shifts in central Siberia from observed data

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961–1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020 climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already 2–3°C warmer in the north and 1–2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1–2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10–20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010 and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was previously non-existent north of 56°N latitude. South of 56°N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional literature data.     

鄱阳湖区氮磷污染物分布、转移和削减特征

根据入湖污染负荷监测、调查资料和不同水文条件下流场-水质同步监测资料,应用数理统计方法,研究了鄱阳湖氮磷营养物质分布、转移和削减特征。研究结果显示:(1)总磷、总氮是影响鄱阳湖水环境质量的主要污染物,入湖污染负荷与入湖径流水量紧密正相关。(2)鄱阳湖换水周期短,水流更换频繁,氮磷污染物在湖区不会充分混合;氮磷超标水域随着水体流动,逐步向下游转移、扩散;湖水位处于消落状态,通江水道部分水域氮磷浓度超标。(3)湖相状态水环境比河相好,湖相状态一般不会出现大面积的总氮和总磷同时超标。(4)鄱阳湖水环境勉强维持Ⅲ类标准,如果出现损害环境的人类活动,脆弱的水环境将会恶化。针对这些特征提出了保护鄱阳湖"一湖清水"的对策建议。     

洞庭湖主要生态环境问题变化分析

通过对近几十年来洞庭湖水情、泥沙、污染和湿地生态等不同方面问题的回顾分析,认为在三峡工程建设、洞庭湖退田还湖和极端天气事件影响下,洞庭湖主要生态环境问题发生了一些变化。由于气候干旱化,加之三峡水库蓄水影响,导致洞庭湖入湖水量季节性减少,湖区水位下降,干旱期延长。模拟显示2006和2009年三峡秋季蓄水使洞庭湖出口水位平均下降2.03和2.11 m;由于三口来沙急剧减少,入湖泥沙打破了以淤积为主的模式,2006年洞庭湖第一次出现从拦蓄泥沙变成向长江净输出泥沙。低水位运行不仅对洲滩演进和湖泊水质带来影响,也加速了对湖滩的开发利用,外来物种的发展威胁了湖泊湿地生物多样性和动物栖息地的稳定。同时,湖区复合型水污染威胁加重,洞庭湖水质从2008年的Ⅳ类水下降为Ⅴ类水。洞庭湖在缺水与洪涝矛盾中,正从单一洪灾为主转向矛盾的两个方面共存。这些变化一方面与气候变化有关,也是流域生产由传统农业转向农、林、水、工的综合发展,以及湖泊与流域关系改变的结果。     

太湖西北部湖区入湖河流氮磷水质标准修正方案研究

氮磷污染一直是太湖流域的首要污染问题,有效遏制氮磷入湖量的增加是治理太湖的重要任务。然而由于我国现行的地表水环境质量标准(GB3838-2002)中河流和湖泊氮、磷水质标准存在差异,即河流无总氮控制指标、河湖总磷标准不一致的问题,往往造成通过控制入湖河流污染来改善太湖湖泊水质时,湖泊污染物浓度往往达不到治理目标。以太湖西北部湖区及其入湖河流为例,利用BATHTUB模型模拟入湖河流与湖泊TN、TP的关系,推算太湖在满足现行湖泊水质标准中TN和TP各类别目标值的情形下的环境容量并以此环境容量决定入湖河流的水质,进而提出相应的方案进行比选,从而提出太湖入湖河流氮磷水质标准修正方案。结果表明:(1)当太湖入湖河流执行现行河流水质TP标准时,对应湖泊的水质TP超标,并不能达到保护湖泊的目标;(2)当太湖西北部湖区入湖河流TN、TP执行现行湖泊水质标准,对应湖区水质均能达标并且优于目标限值,然而该方案对于污染较为严重的太湖区域的实际参考意义不足;(3)以现行湖泊水质标准TN、TP各类别为目标值反推计算入湖河流水质指标,既能保证湖泊水质达标,又不会使河流水质标准过于严格,因此其结果可作为入湖河流水质标准修正的参考,从而提出太湖入湖河流TN、TP水质标准建议方案。     

1990~2015年青海省湖泊时空变化及其对气候变化的响应分析

湖泊作为陆地水圈重要组成部分，是揭示全球气候变化与区域响应的重要信息载体。利用遥感技术获取青海省1990~2015年湖泊时空变化特征，并结合近25 a青海省气温和降雨量的时空变化特征以探究湖泊对气候的响应。结果表明:近25 a，青海省湖泊面积从12 757 km2增加到15 167 km2，湖泊数量由241个增加到286个。不同区域湖泊时空变化存在差异，主要包括3个区域：东部地区（Ⅰ）、西北地区（Ⅱ）和西南地区（Ⅲ）。其中，降雨量的增加促进了Ⅰ区域湖泊面积和数量的增加，湖泊面积由7 173 km2增加到8 474 km2，湖泊数量增加19个。Ⅱ区域湖泊面积由1 369 km2增加到1 542 km2，湖泊数量增加7个。该区域主要地形为柴达木盆地，是我国干旱区之一，干燥少雨，湖泊面积较少且变化剧烈。其湖泊扩张主要是因为降雨量增加，而较强的蒸散发极易导致湖泊萎缩。Ⅲ区域湖泊面积由4 215 km2增加到5 152 km2，湖泊数量增加19个。湖泊扩张的主要原因为降雨量的增加和蒸发的减少。研究为青海省湖泊科学利用与水资源合理配置提供了基础数据。 关键词： 青海省；湖泊；时空变化；气候变化响应     

长江中游大型通江湖泊湿地景观格局演变特征

鄱阳湖和洞庭湖湿地是长江中游仅有的两个天然通江湖泊湿地,具有不可替代自然和人文价值。近年来,尤其是三峡工程运行以后两湖湿地景观格局发生改变,对区域生态系统平衡和社会经济发展产生重要影响。以Landsat 7为数据源,通过决策树分类及高斯回归的方法定量评估了三峡工程运行前后两湖湿地景观格局的演变特征及其差异性,旨在正确认识大型水利工程的生态效应,为湿地保护与重建提供科学依据。结果表明:2000~2014年,洞庭湖枯水期水位变化不明显。从历史演变特征来看,虽然有少部分植被挤占泥滩和水体,但总体上3种湿地景观类型面积变化不大。相比之下,三峡工程运行后鄱阳湖枯水期水位显著下降,水体面积萎缩近14%,植被面积增加约8%。与2000年相比,2014年鄱阳湖植被分布高程下降了1 m多。不同程度的干旱胁迫是形成两湖湿地景观格局差异性演变特征的主要原因。     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

基于生态系统水平的洞庭湖生态风险评价

以“生态系统服务”为生态风险评价终点,通过量化外界压力源与生态系统服务的“压力 响应”模式,建立基于生态系统水平的生态风险评价方法。该方法将生态系统整体作为分析对象,同时考虑了生态系统的各种组成要素及要素间的复杂关联作用。运用该方法评价了洞庭湖的生态风险,并对评价结果进行了分析。评价结果表明东洞庭湖的生态风险程度最高,西洞庭湖次之,南洞庭湖最低。造成洞庭湖生态风险的主要压力源为城市化、生活和气候变化;主要胁迫因子为有机污染物、营养物质和水流量变化。受影响较大的生态系统指标为生物多样性、河湖连通性和碳循环;营养循环价值、净化水质价值和生物多样性价值3项生态系统服务风险程度较高     

汉阳湖群底栖动物群落及其对环境质量的指示

汉阳地区湖汊纵横、水系丰富,是汉阳地区工业和生活废水的主要纳污水体,水质多为劣V类。底栖动物已被广泛用于监测湖泊有机污染,因此,为探明汉阳地区湖泊群（三角湖、墨水湖、龙阳湖、月湖、后官湖）的污染状况和污染分布格局,于2002~2005年全面调查了各湖泊的底栖动物群落,并分析了其对环境的指示作用。除后官湖发现软体动物外,其他各湖泊均以耐污的颤蚓科寡毛类(霍甫水丝蚓,苏氏尾鳃蚓)和摇蚊科幼虫(长足摇蚊、红裸须摇蚊、羽摇蚊)占绝对优势。统计分析表明,颤蚓类和摇蚊幼虫的密度与水体氮、磷、叶绿素含量呈显著正相关（〖WTBX〗p<005）,且颤蚓类密度对水体氮、磷水平的预测能力（R2）〖WTBZ〗优于摇蚊幼虫。K 优势曲线和多样性指数的污染评价结果显示,墨水湖和龙阳湖属重污染,月湖和三角湖属中度污染,后官湖属轻度污染,这与理化指标表征的营养状况基本吻合,特别是在受苯酚化工废料污染的龙阳湖东片没有采集到底栖动物,这是底栖动物能够监测污染物长期效应的例证。进一步应用颤蚓类密度的水平分布指示了各湖泊的沉积物污染分布,结合湖体周边环境分析论证了这种指示作用的可信度     

Evidence of response of vegetation to environmental change on high-elevation sites in the Swiss Alps

Climate change has in the past led to shifts in vegetation patterns; in a future, warmer climate due to enhanced greenhouse-gas concentrations, vegetation is also likely to be highly responsive to such warming. Mountain regions are considered to be particularly sensitive to such changes. In this paper we present an approach to assess the impact of climate change on long-term vegetation plots at the high-elevation site of the Schynige Platte, 2000 m above sea level, in the Bernese Alps (Switzerland). Records of vegetation spanning the period from 1928 to today at two different sites, each with several plots, were considered. The observed change in the species composition was then related to changes in land use and climate. We used daily values of temperature, snow and precipitation from several high-elevation weather stations to conduct these analyses. The correlation between climate and vegetation patterns revealed that species that prefer low thermal conditions move out of the plots, i.e., their frequency of occurrence is negatively correlated with the average number of degree-days over the last six decades. On the other hand, species with higher thermal demands are seen to be invading the plots, i.e., their frequency of occurrence is positively correlated to the average number of degree-days. Nutrient changes – though independent from climate – also play an important role in the observed shifts in species. Received: 20 June 1999 · Accepted: 14 January 2000     

鄱阳湖水体垂向分层状况调查研究

湖泊水体混合或分层对环境和生态具有显著指示意义,能够提高对未来湖泊水环境状况的评价与管理。针对洪泛鄱阳湖水位季节性变化显著等特点,基于剖面温度和稳定氢氧同位素的调查分析来探明多因素影响下鄱阳湖水体垂向分层或混合状况。结果发现:鄱阳湖枯水期和洪水期水体垂向温差大多处于0~1.0℃,大部分水域温差小于0.5℃,但偶见洪水期部分水域会达到1.5℃的较大温差。总体表明,在季节变化尺度上,鄱阳湖具有较为稳定的等温层,没有明显温度分层特征。同位素分析结果得出,枯水期和洪水期的氢氧稳定同位素值在深度剖面上呈均一分布,表明鄱阳湖水体混合状况较好或完全混合。虽然湖区气象条件和水文条件均是影响鄱阳湖水体分层或混合的重要因素,但鄱阳湖入流和出流等水文条件是影响鄱阳湖水体垂向混合的主要因素。鄱阳湖水体混合同时对湖泊水环境因子的垂向分布特征可能产生重要的影响或控制作用。首次基于大量野外监测有针对性地开展鄱阳湖水体分层研究,结果有助于对湖泊水流结构的深入认识,可为湖区水体污染物的输移模拟与作用机制阐释等方面提供科学参考。     

太湖水质参数中小尺度空间结构特征

经济的发展和人们生活水平的提高，造成了太湖的富营养化和生态环境的严重破坏。太湖的水质污染目前已严重影响了整个流域的可持续发展，并对人们的身体健康造成潜在的危害。治理太湖、保护太湖已成为人们刻不容缓的任务。了解湖泊水质参数空间结构特征是进行太湖环境评价的重要前提，也是合理治理太湖的重要基础。地统计学的出现为精确描述湖泊水质参数空间结构提供了有效的工具。应用地统计学技术对太湖3种水质参数进行了空间结构分析，结果显示，污染物集中在湖岸线附近不易向湖中央扩散，各水质参数空间分布差异性较大，且空间结构特征极为相似，不同尺度之间有差异性。同时，由于采样密度和范围的限制，更细微和更大尺度的空间结构特征尚不能得以表述。最后，还讨论了太湖水质参数的空间结构变异性。     

The Hungarian national climate change strategy: its principles, assignments, and a special case study on maize production

Efficient protection against global climate change requires international emission reduction measures. Before these ones are decided, the individual states should make arrangements within their own scope of authority for preventing and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change already in progress as a consequence of carbon dioxide emissions done so far. In spring 2008 Hungary—among the very first ones in the international stage—passed a middle-term National Climate Change Strategy, which determines both the national tasks in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral tasks of the adaptation to the ongoing climate change for the period of 2008–2025. As a concrete case study we investigated the possible impacts of the regional change in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and precipitation conditions of the Carpathian Basin on the cultivation conditions of maize, based on the downscaled IPCC 2007 scenarios. Temperatures of each scenarios increased significantly to basic run (1961–1990). This change suppressed the positive influence of elevated CO₂ on carbon assimilation. Serious depression may be waited during extreme hot days at Keszthely, Hungary.     

江苏天目湖表层沉积物中多环芳烃污染特征与来源

区别于长江三角洲地区众多的大型天然浅水湖泊,江苏天目湖是一个较深的水库型湖泊,也是重要的城乡生活及工农业水源地之一。为了解天目湖表层沉积物中多环芳烃（PAHs）污染状况, 2006年在天目湖全湖采集7个点位的表层沉积物样品,利用GC/MS分析了16种优控PAHs。结果表明：天目湖表层沉积物中16种优控PAHs总量介于28750~71393 ng/g（干重）,平均值为45852 ng/g;在空间分布上,北部受污染程度高于南部,主要是北部旅游业快速发展导致污染物排放的影响;沉积物中总有机碳含量与PAHs总量呈显著相关;利用特征化合物指数对PAHs的来源进行判别,指示天目湖表层沉积物中PAHs的主要来源是木材、煤的不完全燃烧。与不同地区水体沉积物PAHs含量对比表明,天目湖PAHs污染处于一个低至中等程度。基于沉积物中多环芳烃的环境质量标准,仅有1个样点芴浓度超过风险效应低值,但远小于毒性风险效应中值,因此沉积物中多环芳烃的生态风险较小。然而天目湖表层沉积物中的PAHs的污染程度已超过南水北调东线所经过的南四湖,而且天目湖湖水较深,湖水交换周期比较长,其PAHs污染应引起重视,需制定切实措施保护江苏“最后一泓净水”。     

鄱阳湖蝶形湖泊水体氮磷等的变化及污染初步评价

分别于2014年夏季7月和冬季12月对鄱阳湖蝶形水域的9个湖泊进行了采样,并对湖泊水质基础性指标TN、TP、NH_3-N、NO_3~--N、NO_2~--N、溶解性磷酸盐、TOC、COD_(Mn)和叶绿素a进行了测定与分析。据此同时运用单因素评价法、均值型指数综合评价法和营养状态指数法对鄱阳湖蝶形水域的地表水水环境的污染现状和污染程度进行了评价,以更全面和准确地反映鄱阳湖蝶形水域的水质状况。结果显示:(1)鄱阳湖蝶形水域水质总体符合GB3838-2002III类水标准;(2)7月水质总体优于12月水质。12月总氮含量和总磷含量基本都高于7月,叶绿素a含量除中湖池12月值略低于7月外,其它点位12月值均高于7月。7月总氮值为0.6~1.3 mg/L,总磷值为0.02~0.15 mg/L,叶绿素a为2.2~6.7 mg/L;12月总氮值为0.6~2.0 mg/L,总磷值为0.04~0.19 mg/L,叶绿素a为3.8~34.7 mg/L;(3)7月和12月水质营养状态介于中营养和轻度富营养,水体主要污染物质为总氮和总磷。7月蚌湖营养状态为轻度富营养,其它点位为中营养,12月除常湖、梅溪湖和大汊湖营养状态为中营养,其它点位均为轻度富营养;(4)位于南部的象湖、常湖、白沙湖和大汊湖水质整体较其它蝶形湖泊差,主要是受到工业废水、生活污水和农业面源污染的赣江和饶河的污染输入影响所致。基于以上调查测试结果提出保护和改善鄱阳湖水环境的可行性措施,以促进鄱阳湖蝶形水域水资源的开发利用,实现经济与环境及资源的协调可持续发展。     

Water quality and impacts of pollution sources for Eymir and Mogan Lakes (Turkey)

Mogan and Eymir Lakes are two shallow lakes, interconnected hydrologically in the close vicinity of Ankara, Turkey. A total of 245 km(2) of the total 971.4 km(2) watershed is under environmental protection status as "G?lba?i Specially Protected Area". Potential impacts from extensive agriculture, recreation, incomplete infrastructure and other human activities, such as residential settlements, are discussed with reference to previous and more recent pollution monitoring. Six monitoring stations enabling follow-up of previous work were selected in this study. These were on the creeks feeding the lake systems. Generally, summer months showed heavier pollution loads, with Eymir Lake concentrating the pollutants due to flow from Mogan Lake. When compared with the 1995 study; COD, total-P, Kjeldahl-N in the six stations were close or slightly decreased in the present study. Suspended solids significantly decreased; possibly due to erosion control measures and decreased domestic wastewater. The improvement in the pollution state of the lakes is attributed to the construction of a sewage system going around Mogan Lake and collecting wastewater discharges and restrictions to urban settlement development around the lakes brought by the 1/25,000 land use plan controlling further impact from residential developments within the protected area boundaries. The study, while addressing water quality and interactions due to human activities in shallow lakes, also discusses problems associated with human impacts in protected areas with the aim of presenting a complicated case study.     

Contemporary changes in open water surface area of Lake Inle, Myanmar

From 1935 to 2000, the net open water area of Inle Lake in Central Shan State, Myanmar decreased from 69.10 to 46.69 km², a loss of 32.4% during this 65-year period. Local beliefs are that losses in lake area have been even greater within the last 100–200 years. Various activities, including timber removal, shifting agriculture in the uplands by various ethnic groups, and unsustainable cultivation practices on the low- and mid-level hillslopes around the lake, have been blamed for both historical and ongoing sedimentation. We take issue with attributing loss of lake area to these activities, and propose instead that ongoing “in-lake” and “near-lake” agricultural practices are the main sources of contemporary sediment and loss of open water area. About 93% (i.e., 20.84 km²) of the recent loss in open water area of the lake is due to the development of floating garden agriculture, largely along the west side of the lake. Direct environmental impacts associated with this practice and with other agriculture activities within the wetlands and margins of the lake include sedimentation, eutrophication, and pollution. Whilst the sustainability of hillslope agriculture and past forestry practices can indeed be questioned, a more urgent need is to address these "in-lake" and "near-lake" practices.