An inverse model for the analysis of the Venice lagoon food web

A steady-state model of the Venice lagoon food web was constructed, based on a comprehensive set of data, which were collected in the years 2001-2005. Energy flows were estimated by means of an inverse methodology of constrained optimization based on the Minimum Norm criterion, i.e. on the minimization of both the sum of squares of the residuals and of the sum of squares of energy flows. The solution was constrained by a set inequalities, which were derived from general eco-physiological knowledge and site specific data on energy flows. The trophic network was represented by thirty-two nodes, including single-species compartments for the species of high economical or ecological relevance. Mass balance equations were weighted, in order to obtain meaningful results in presence of large differences, up to 5 orders of magnitude, among biomasses. A perturbation technique was applied, with the purpose of reducing the risk of finding solutions heavily affected by the set of constraints and of obtaining a more robust representation of the energy flows. The main patterns of energy flow are consistent with those obtained in previous attempts at modelling the Venice lagoon food web. Micro- and macro-phytobenthos account for the largest fraction of the primary production. Energy is then transferred towards higher trophic levels by means of two main pathways: the recycling of dead biomass through the detritus compartment and the direct consumption by grazers. The first pathway is the most important and accounts for approximately two/thirds of the energy transferred to the second trophic level.     

An approach to evaluation of sustainability for Guangzhou's urban ecosystem

Guangzhou has ambitions to build itself into a world class metropolis by 2010. Sustainable development is the only way to achieve this magnificent goal. Based on the ecological perspective of sustainable development and the principles of ecosystem integrity, this paper develops an approach for evaluation of sustainable development in Guangzhou between 1986 and 1995. A hierarchical evaluation system of four tiers of sustainability indicators was established. Using the method of fuzzy multistage synthetic evaluation, sustainability development level index, QIx, was calculated for the indicators at the B, C, D, and E tiers. Development stages were identified based on these index values. The coordination degree among the economic, social, and natural subsystems was also computed. Further, an overall sustainability index for each year was computed by combining the development level index and the coordination degree. It was found that the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou had generally become more sustainable, in spite of fluctuations in coordination degree. The development level index of the economic subsystem has surpassed that of social and natural subsystems since 1995. Appropriate measures must be taken to ensure coordinated development among the subsystems for the purpose of sustainable development.     

An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions

Although forest landscape models (FLMs) have benefited greatly from ongoing advances of computer technology and software engineering, computing capacity remains a bottleneck in the design and development of FLMs. Computer memory overhead and run time efficiency are primary limiting factors when applying forest landscape models to simulate large landscapes with fine spatial resolutions and great vegetation detail. We introduce LANDIS PRO 6.0, a landscape model that simulates forest succession and disturbances on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. LANDIS PRO 6.0 improves on existing forest landscape models with two new data structures and algorithms (hash table and run-length compression). The innovative computer design enables LANDIS PRO 6.0 to simulate very large (>10⁸ ha) landscapes with a 30-m spatial resolution, which to our knowledge no other raster forest landscape models can do. We demonstrate model behavior and performance through application to five nested forest landscapes with varying sizes (from 1 million to 100 million 0.09-ha cells) in the southern Missouri Ozarks. The simulation results showed significant and variable effects of changing spatial extent on simulated forest succession patterns. Results highlighted the utility of a model like LANDIS PRO 6.0 that is capable of efficiently simulating large landscapes and scaling up forest landscape processes to a common regional scale of analysis. The programming methodology presented here may significantly advance the development of next generation of forest landscape models.     

An experimental study of competition for food between male and female nestlings of the red-winged blackbird

Summary Ten experimental broods of red-winged black-bird (Agelaius phoeniceus) nestlings, experimentally manipulated to contain two males and two females of similar age, were observed with the aid of video cameras to determine (a) which nestling characteristics were most important in influencing its chances of being fed and (b) if males and females differed with respect to these characteristics. Nestlings that could reach highest while begging were most successful at obtaining food from parents during individual feeding bouts. However, while there was a tendency for nestlings that begged earlier to be offered food first, a nestling's position in the nest during these bouts did not influence its feeding success. Males begged more than often females and were offered more food by parents. Males were also more likely to be fed when they begged. This was most likely because males, being larger than females, were able to reach higher while begging. Neither sex was more likely to beg sooner or occupy certain positions in the nest. However, while males that had been transferred from other nests received less food than natal males, there were no differences in food acquisition between transferred and natal females. Differences in the relative success of males and females under different conditions may help explain differences in fledgling sex ratios observed in many dimorphic species.     

Aluminium and Alzheimer's disease: An epidemiological approach

Epidemiological methods have an important role in the investigation of the postulated connection between exposure to aluminium and the development of Alzheimer's disease. We have examined the usefulness of existing data on prevalence and mortality as a resource for studying variations in the rate of the disease with time and geography. Unfortunately, methodological differences between prevalence surveys and errors and biases in mortality data are large. No reliable conclusions can be drawn from these data about geographical differences in rates of dementia in England and Wales nor about time trends in the disease.Aluminium salts are widely used in the UK for the treatment of drinking water. Residual aluminium concentrations vary more than ten fold between different parts of the country. We have estimated diagnostic rates of pre-senile Alzheimer's disease in seven geographical areas and examined the correlation between rates of Alzheimer's disease and water aluminium concentration.     

An improved formal approach to demographic loop analysis

Loop analysis is introduced to demographic analysis as a tool to compare relative contributions of different life-history types to population growth rate. In 1998, G. M. Wardle brought in basic concepts of the graph theory to demographic loop analysis and proposed a methodology to determine the loops from any life-cycle graph based on these concepts. However, the mathematics behind Wardle's methodology cannot readily be used by most population ecologists. A new methodology that is also based on graph theory concepts but both makes ecological sense in its application and is simpler to implement is proposed. Three rules of thumb serve as the basis of the proposed methodology that brings a more systematic approach to loop selection: it identifies only those loops that are ecologically meaningful (i.e., loops that are forward-flowing and with positive elasticity values). Thus, it produces a loop set that is more amenable to answer questions on comparison of different lifehistory types. It is tested on several life-cycle graphs from the literature. Three of these are presented: Vouacapoua americana, Dipsacus sylvestris, and Alcyonium sp. In each case, the methodology successfully produced a loop set that makes sense in terms of the ecology of the species. The methodology is also implemented as a couple of open-source computer codes. It is hoped that the proposed methodology will lead to wider use of loop analysis in demographic population studies.     

Cycling in ecosystems: An individual based approach

Cycling index is an important ecological indicator used in ecosystem analysis. The higher the cycling in an ecosystem, the higher the utilization of mass and energy within the system before it is lost due to respiration and other factors. For a stock-flow type ecosystem model at steady state, Finn’s cycling index (FCI) can be computed using simple matrix algebra. However, it is difficult to measure how well this index represents the actual cycling occurring in the system. In this paper, we study cycling in ecological networks using an individual based approach (particle tracking algorithm). This new simulation method provides access to the pathway data of individual particles that flow in the system, therefore one can quantify cycling using this pathway data quite literally. We used particle tracking simulations (PTS) to compute a cycling index using Finn’s idea of flux based cycling. Our simulation based results (using no matrix algebra) agree with Finn’s cycling index, verifying the accuracy of both the PTS, and the original linear algebraic formulation of FCI.     

Estimating undiscovered oil resources: An engineering approach

This paper is an evaluation of the earlier work of M.K. Hubbert with the aim of more objectively estimating total recoverable (i.e. producible) oil in the United States and Nigeria. The results, based upon an engineering model, indicate that 198 billion barrels are ultimately recoverable in the United States of which 113.8 billion barrels have been produced through 1977. For Nigeria, 19.4 billion barrels are ultimately recoverable of which 6.1 billion barrels have been produced at the end of 1977.     

An approach to simulate wind fields around an urban environment for wind energy application

This work proposes an approach to simulate wind flow fields around an urban environment with the aim of evaluating the potential impact of buildings on the general wind patterns and power production using the current generation of commercial wind turbines. The simulation process was performed with the aid of accessible computational tools that can potentially render the proposed procedure applicable in other cases of interest. The roughness of the urban environment was defined as the association of roughness map, topography, and an alternative process for obtaining the volumetry of buildings. A case study was conducted in a region located at the district of Boa Viagem (Recife-PE) for assessing the applicability of the approach. Scenarios were designed in order to simulate wind flow patterns and pre-identify sites that have suitable wind energy potential for electric power production by investigating the combination of wind speed magnitude and turbulence intensity. From the results obtained, it was possible to identify zones of potential wind sources that are not detected in classical wind atlas probably due to the influence of the built environment on local wind flow patterns.     

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

An apparatus for automatic counting and controlling density of pelagic food particles in cultures of marine organisms

A particle control system is described for automatic collection of samples, and determination and control of the density of particles in marine suspensions. Densities are determined electronically, allowing colourless microorganisms to be detected. Computer operated magnetic valves allow multiple cultures to be sampled, measured and fed, using compressed air and a vacuum pump. Conditions and variables, determined in the software, enable flexible adjustment to specific culture conditions. The system was applied in the cultivation of the copepod Acartia clausi Giesbrecht, using a 95 m orifice with a particle size range of 8 to 32 m. Some results are given of monitoring and controlling the density of heterotrophic flagellates as food in the copepod cultures at different conditions of temperature and autotrophic food.     

Turbulent rectangular compound open channel flow study using multi-zonal approach

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - In this paper, an improved Shiono–Knight model (SKM) has been proposed to calculate the rectangular compound open channel flows by considering a multi-zonal...     

An island biogeography approach for understanding changes in compositional similarity at present scenario of biotic homogenization

Local extinction of native species and colonization of non-native species are commonly invoked as responsible for changes in species similarity among biotas of different regions. In this study we used a model of species similarity between islands to assess the emergent, and unexplored, effects of changes in colonization by native species, extinction of non-native species, and propagule pressure on species similarity among insular communities. The model predicts that extinction probability of endemic species has a positive but asymptotic effect on species similarity, which is exacerbated by increasing colonization and reducing extinction of non-native species. Species similarity tends to increase with increasing colonization probability by non-native species, however this effect may be reduced, or even reverted, when the islands are exposed to an elevated number of non-native species that are prone to extinction, high levels of endemic species loss, and an initially large number of native species shared between islands. Species similarity was positively affected by the propagule pressure rate of non-native species only when their colonization and extinction probabilities were large and small enough, respectively. A negative effect of propagule pressure rate can be caused by an increase in the pool size of non-native species, which involves the introduction of different species into different islands, promoting biotic differentiation between islands. Our results indicate that the interactions between colonization, extinction and species pool lead to nonlinear responses and unexpected scenarios of biotic change. In order to validate model predictions, future research programs should focus on understanding the dynamics on such complex meta-communities where coexist native, non-native and endemic species.     

Modelling dynamics of managed tropical rainforests—An aggregated approach

The overuse of rainforests in the last century and its consequences necessitate a rethinking of logging policies. To this end models have been developed to simulate rainforest dynamics and to allow optional management strategies to be evaluated. Parameterisation of presently existing models for a certain site needs a lot of work, thus the parameterisation effort is too high to apply the models to a wide range of rainforests. Hence, in this paper we introduce the simplified model FORREG using the knowledge we have gained from a more complex model, FORMIX3-Q.     

An estimating function approach to the inference of catch-effort models

A class of catch-effort models, which allows for heterogeneous removal probabilities, is proposed for closed populations. The model includes three types of removal probabilities: multiplicative, Poisson and logistic. The usual removal and generalized removal models then become special cases. The equivalence of the proposed model and a special type of capture-recapture model is discussed. A unified estimating function approach is used to estimate the initial population size. For the homogeneous model, the resulting population size estimator based on optimal estimating functions is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator. One advantage for our approach is that it can be extended to handle the heterogeneous populations in which the maximum likelihood estimators do not exist. The bootstrap method is applied to construct variance estimators and confidence intervals. We illustrate the method by two real data examples. Results of a simulation study investigating the performance of the proposed estimation procedure are presented.     

Nanosensors for food quality and safety assessment

Food toxins are produced as defense tools by microorganisms that use nutrients for their growth. Microorganisms thus spoil food, taste and can infect humans, sometimes leading to death. Food adulteration and brand protection are also major issues in the food industry. Here we review the use of nanomaterials for sensing food quality. Nanosensors can detect pathogenic bacteria, food-contaminating toxins, adulterant, vitamins, dyes, fertilizers, pesticides, taste and smell. Food freshness can be monitored using time–temperature and oxygen indicators. Product authenticity and brand protection can be assessed using invisible nanobarcodes. Overall, nanosensors with unique properties are improving food security.     

Aptamers are an innovative and promising tool for phytoplankton taxonomy and biodiversity research

Nucleic acid aptamers are small-size ligands that selectively bind to molecular segments even when they protrude from cell surfaces. Due to their high specificity, aptamers are widely used in biomedical research and as probes for different applications. Here, we tested whether aptamers can also discriminate among phytoplankton cells. As a proof of concept we focused on the widespread centric diatom Leptocylindrus danicus and generated two aptamers that selectively bind to its cell surface. The aptamers did not bind to other diatoms tested, which included both pennate (Pseudo-nitzschia multistriata) and centric (Skeletonema marinoi, Chaetoceros socialis) species. They also showed negative binding to closely related species (Tenuicylindrus belgicus, Leptocylindrus aporus, Leptocylindrus convexus), which are hardly recognizable with microscopy techniques. In addition, aptamers discriminated also among cells of the same clone, suggesting a potential use of aptamers as clone-specific/stage-specific probes to track phytoplankton life stages in their natural environment. While the method still needs to be tested with natural algal samples, it can complement in a unique way the existing approaches to discriminate among species and possibly life stages of marine phytoplankton. The method can find useful application in taxonomic and ecological studies as well as in environmental monitoring including early warning strategies.     

Analysis of the glyphosate herbicide in water,soil and food using derivatising agents

Glyphosate is used widely to control weeds. Glyphosate is a broad spectrum, non-selective, systemic and post-emergent herbicide. Glyphosate excessive use and impact on the environment is promoting the analysis of glyphosate in water, soil and food materials. Methods to analyse glyphosate at low levels are needed because glyphosate has a short half-life due to easy microbial degradation. Glyphosate has a high polarity and solubility in water, has high binding affinity with soil and is non-volatile. The absence of chromophoric groups in the molecular structure makes the detection difficult. Therefore, detection can be achieved by derivatisation, which makes glyphosate more volatile and stable for spectroscopic analysis. Derivatisation is commonly done by alkyl chloroformates, acylating agents, 9-fluoroenylmethylchloroformate, 4-methoxybenzenesulfonylfluoride and o-phthalaldehyde. Immunosensors allow detection at microlevels. Nanocrystals and nanotechnology allow detection at nanolevels. Here, we review methods to derivatise and analyse glyphosate.