生态适应性协同方法及其应用

利用现代科学技术分析了我国古代成效卓越的水利工程和现代生态经济成熟模式的原理与方法,提出生态适应性协同调控方法。基于对生态系统内部运行机制的认知,采用适当的工程或非工程措施,改善系统与环境、增强生态系统某一方面机能,实现静态协同性,提升生态系统服务功能;针对生态系统内部未了解的运行机制或所处环境的不确定性,调控措施经过“试验式实施—监测观察—效果评估—调控措施优化—再实施”的动态协同性过程,逐步寻求最适宜的调控方案,取得经济—社会—生态环境效益的协同统一。针对鄱阳湖湿地修复保护,应用生态适应性协同方法,研究了鄱阳湖枯水期水位过程调控的手段、方法和基本原则,提出了现阶段枯水期水位过程调控方案。     

混沌与分形理论在主体功能区划中的应用初探

主体功能区划的研究对象"社会-经济-自然复合系统"是一个非线性、自适应、动态的复杂系统,难以用简单的线性因果关系进行分析、预测和控制,这也是目前主体功能区划实践中遇到的一系列问题的根本原因之一。本文提出将混沌理论与分形理论引入主体功能区划理论和方法中,并重点就主体功能区划的动态性、不同空间层级的协调、空间尺度及指标体系分维等问题进行了分析,探索了主体功能区划理论和方法的新思路。     

生态政策下草原社会-生态系统恢复力评价——以宁夏盐池县为例

随着人类活动对地球影响的不断深入,人地关系耦合系统、社会-生态系统等复杂适应性系统的研究成为目前研究的新趋势。社会-生态系统恢复力这一概念也已经受到不同领域学者们的关注,但是由于社会-生态系统恢复力测量难度较大,很少有人把这一概念运用到实践中去。本文尝试将社会-生态系统作为一个优势循环过程,运用系统动力学方法测量社会-生态系统恢复力,并以中国西北草原生态环境较脆弱的宁夏回族自治区盐池县为例,研究生态政策对草原社会-生态系统恢复力状况的影响,并模拟未来10年,在不同国家生态补偿标准下草原社会-生态系统恢复力的可能情景。结果显示:(1)系统动力学模型通过连续激活和停用的系统动力学方法模拟模型的主循环并验证对主要变量的影响,确定最终循环优势转移的过程,为社会-生态系统恢复力定量研究提供了一种可行性方法;(2)国家在草原地区实施的生态政策对草原社会-生态系统恢复具有明显的效果,草原社会-生态系统由不稳定逐渐趋于稳定,恢复力逐渐增强,国家生态补偿标准的提高和农村社会保障体系的完善以及农户生态环境意识提高和生计方式的转变,使得草原社会-生态系统趋于稳定,对自然环境的冲击有较强的缓冲能力;(3)综合生态系统和社会系统各方面因素,盐池县草原在未来10年,随着补偿标准的提高,农业人口几乎不变,羊只存栏数呈下降趋势,草原产草量和植被覆盖率都呈缓慢增加趋势,农牧民人均纯收入有明显增加,社会-生态系统恢复力逐渐增强。综合五个草原社会-生态系统的主要指标发现,在当前生态补偿标准下,草原未来10年社会-生态系统恢复力更强。     

可持续性科学:基于对象—过程—主体的分析模型

2015年9月,联合国通过了未来15年即2016-2030年的全球可持续发展目标(SDGs),这意味着可持续发展将进一步成为指导全球经济社会发展的核心概念和中轴原理。基于这个背景,对可持续发展的理论和方法加强整合性的研究,已经成为具有战略性意义的任务。本文提出基于对象-主体-过程的可持续性科学的分析模型,对理论研究和政策分析中的一些经常碰到的关键问题进行辨析:在对象维度,强调可持续发展是在生物物理极限内的经济社会发展,指出环境、社会、经济三个方面有重要的包含互补关系而不是简单的并列替代关系;在过程维度,强调可持续发展将适应性治理和源头性预防结合起来,运用压力-状态-响应即PSR方法进行全过程管理,而不是应对其中一个环节;在主体维度,强调利益相关者参与影响着可持续发展的理论和实践,不能脱离合作治理研究可持续发展。作为案例应用,讨论了可持续性科学视角下的绿色经济的对象、过程、主体问题及其意义。     

流域系统复杂性与适应性管理

资源、环境与生态已经成为制约我国长期可持续发展的主要瓶颈。本文在分析我国面临的流域性水危机主要特征的基础上,一方面,从复杂系统角度对流域社会-经济-自然复合系统进行分析,揭示了流域管理面临的复杂性与不确定性导致其必定是一个长期、复杂、艰巨的系统工程;另一方面,结合我国重点流域治理历程对现行流域管理模式进行剖析,总结现行管理模式在管理范式与手段、政策与规划制定、社会参与等方面存在的不足与缺陷,它并不能从根本上解决流域性问题。进而通过对适应性管理的分析及其与现行管理模式的比较,强调了适应性管理是完善流域综合管理的有效策略。最终,从管理环境、管理体系、决策机制、管理手段以及科学研究职能等五个方面对我国流域管理转型提出政策建议。     

近10年中国可持续发展研究进展与分析

可持续发展概念的提出以来,我国从学术界到社会各界分别进行了相应的研究和实践。可持续发展是一个涉及到自然、经济、社会三个子系统组成的动态、开放复杂系统,其研究内容涉及到地理学、资源管理、生态学、环境科学、人口学、系统工程、经济学、社会学等许多相关领域。为了实施闺家可持续发展战略．国寒加大了对可更新资源保护的力度、愿域生态环境建设工程的布局、区域综合减灾规划制定与工程的建设。与此间时。图家有关资源、环境、灾害管理等职能部门。从制定可持续发展途径出发．开展了大量的区域可持续发展研究。这些工作为区域可持续发展的理论和方法论建设提供了足够丰富的案例研究。利用中国知网网络平台和Google搜索引擎工具。检索并分析了我国可持续发展近10年的主要研究内容。即：可持续发展的理论研究、可持续发展的信息分类和指标体系以及评价的模型方法。在此基础上对今后的研究趋势进行了分析。认为可持续发展过程与机理研究、尺度问题、区域要素和地域结构的整合、区域综合集成以及区域要素变化、区域整体关系研究需要进一步加强。     

森林对污染物（SO2-4）的过滤器效应研究

森林的过滤器效应是指森林对污染物所具有的净化缓冲作用，这是森林生态系统所具有的重要生态服务功能之一。森林生态系统对污染物的截留、吸附与净化一般是通过污染物在森林生态系统中的乔木层与灌草层植物、枯落物和土壤（微生物）等组分间的转化过程来实现，阐明森林生态系统各组分对污染物的净化效应是正确评估森林过滤器效应的关键。系统综述了森林生态系统各组分对污染物净化效应的国内外主要研究成果，指明了目前该方面研究存在的问题和努力的方向,并指出目前国内已有的大多数研究还处于实验观测与现象揭示阶段，缺乏对过程与机理的深入研究，很少进行多因素的动态综合研究和系统分析，这都限制了我们对森林生态系统对污染物净化过程内在运行机制和客观规律的正确认识和评估。把整个森林生态系统当作一个过滤器，从植物、凋落物、土壤、微生物几个亚系统方面介绍了森林过滤器对污染物净化缓冲作用方面的主要研究进展。     

森林对污染物(SO42-)的过滤器效应研究

森林的过滤器效应是指森林对污染物所具有的净化缓冲作用,这是森林生态系统所具有的重要生态服务功能之一.森林生态系统对污染物的截留、吸附与净化一般是通过污染物在森林生态系统中的乔木层与灌草层植物、枯落物和土壤(微生物)等组分间的转化过程来实现,阐明森林生态系统各组分对污染物的净化效应是正确评估森林过滤器效应的关键.系统综述了森林生态系统各组分对污染物净化效应的国内外主要研究成果,指明了目前该方面研究存在的问题和努力的方向,并指出目前国内已有的大多数研究还处于实验观测与现象揭示阶段,缺乏对过程与机理的深入研究,很少进行多因素的动态综合研究和系统分析,这都限制了我们对森林生态系统对污染物净化过程内在运行机制和客观规律的正确认识和评估.把整个森林生态系统当作一个过滤器,从植物、凋落物、土壤、微生物几个亚系统方面介绍了森林过滤器对污染物净化缓冲作用方面的主要研究进展.     

青藏高原东缘三江流域生态功能区建设的措施与影响

三江流域生态环境极度脆弱,严重威胁着中下游地区的社会安全和经济发展。随着西部开发和生态建设的推进,尤其是本地区“香格里拉”旅游热潮的兴起,三江流域已经成为西部开发的重要地区。通过三江流域的生态环境功能区的界定和划分,科学制定研究区的生态环境建设目标,并进行生态环境质量的动态监测和退化过程的预警报,从而在宏观上实现生态环境质量动态管理;通过退化生态系统的恢复重建模式的研究,特别是功能区的建设示范,把目前的生态恢复工程提高到一个新的水平;为保护生物多样性资源,实现区域生态、经济、社会可持续发展提供理论支撑。     

城市的可持续发展警度--以南京为例

城市作为一个“自然-经济-社会”巨复杂系统．它的运行需要进行不断的描述、评价和解释,以供城市发展调控部门进行动态的有效的调控。从而保证城市的可持续发展。在对城市系统发展度、协调度、持续度以及它们相互关系分析的基础上,提出城市可持续发展度的计算公式．并根据城市可持续发展度以及城市发展度、协调度和持续度的整合状态,对城市可持续发展的各种状态进行分析．得出一种警度分析表．为建立城市可持续发展预警系统提供基础。城市可持续发展预警是在城市可持续发展评价的基础上,对城市发展的序参量以及城市可持续发展相态进行预测．并根据预测的结果和城市可持续发展度进行预警。     

Towards a framework for cross-scale and multi-level analysis of coastal and marine social-ecological systems dynamics

As the Anthropocene proceeds, regional and local sustainability problems are ever more likely to originate at multiple levels of the earth system. The rate of global environmental change is now vastly outpacing our policy response, and social-ecological systems analysis needs to support global environmental governance. To respond to this challenge, this paper initiates the development of a coastal social-ecological typology and applies it in an exemplary fashion to nine coastal and marine case studies. We use an explicit distinction between the definitions of scale and level and a problem or issue-specific approach to the delineation of social-ecological units. A current major challenge to social-ecological systems analysis is the identification of the cross-level and cross-scale interactions and links which play key roles in shaping coastal and marine social-ecological dynamics and outcomes. We show that the regional level is the best point of departure to generate sustainability-oriented cross-scale and multi-level analyses and offers the outline of a typology in which different disciplinary and other forms of knowledge can be integrated as both part of regionally grounded analysis and action which engages with global sustainability challenges.     

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and China’s implementation

The concept of sustainable development has experienced great development and change at different levels of theoretical connotation and practical implementation since 1960s and 1970s when it was first proposed. People’s understanding of the relationship between economy, society, and environment has been continuously deepened over the years. When it came to the end of 2015, it is necessary to examine the results of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals on sustainable development, and at the same time, the post-2015 framework and guidance on sustainable development at the global level were to be made, including the ideas, action plans, key areas that would guide the global sustainable development. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has developed a 5P theoretical framework of being people-centered, global environmental security, sustained economic prosperity, social justice and harmony and partnership promotion, including a political declaration, 17 overarching goals and 169 specific targets, specific ways of implementation, as well as the follow-up. It is the road map to achieve global sustainable development and meet the requirements of the millennium development goals. This paper summarizes the understanding of the concept of sustainable development from its origin, its significant development, to the proposition and development of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and its strategic impact on China.     

全球绿色低碳发展与公平的国际制度建设

在可持续发展和扶贫框架下发展绿色经济与国际可持续发展制度建设及改革是当前世界可持续发展的核心和关键,也是"里约+20"峰会的两个主题。首先,绿色经济是体现经济社会与资源环境相协调和可持续发展的根本途径。绿色经济的核心是以低的自然资源消费、低排放、低污染,达到高的自然资源利用效益,实现高的经济社会发展水平,提供高的生活水平和优良的生活环境。全球绿色经济的发展潮流,将引发社会形态由"工业文明"向"生态文明"转变。虽然经济发展和消除贫困是发展中国家当前首要和压倒一切的优先任务,但也必须探索新型的绿色低碳工业化和现代化道路,在实现工业文明的过程中,努力建设生态文明,实现跨越式发展。同时积极应对全球绿色低碳转型中新的经济、贸易、技术竞争规则和格局的变动,加强先进技术创新,提升自身的低碳竞争力。其次,公平获取可持续发展的理念,应成为国际可持续发展制度建设和改革的基本原则。可持续发展要求既要促进经济社会发展与资源环境相协调,促进"代际公平",又要关注欠发达地区消除贫困,提高生活质量,改善生态环境,实现"国别公平"、"人际公平"。因此,国际可持续发展制度框架的建设和改革,要体现世界各国公平获取可持续发展的理念和原则,全面均衡地反映不同国情和发展阶段国家的利益诉求。主要表现在公平享有全球环境空间、公平获得现代优质能源服务、公平适应全球环境变化、公平承担责任义务及公平的国际制度和机制。中国需要统筹国内外两个大局,走中国特色的绿色低碳发展之路。最后,中国的国情和发展阶段特征,在可持续发展领域又面临比发达国家更多的困难和更严峻的挑战。在全球发展绿色经济,努力实现可持续发展的大背景下,中国要统筹国际国内两个大局,协调推进。在国际上积极参与国际制度的建设和改革,在促进全球经济发展,社会进步和环境保护等方面发挥积极的建设性的作用。在国内加强可持续发展战略的实施,走绿色、低碳和可持续发展的路径。主要战略对策包括加速转变发展方式,强化节能优先,控制能源消费总量和CO2排放总量的过快增长;加强能源结构的低碳化,逐步建立并形成以新能源和可再生能源为主体的可持续能源体系;加强城乡统筹,地区平衡,促进生态城市建设;适应国际可持续发展制度改革的趋势,加强绿色低碳和可持续发展的制度建设;抓住机遇,顺应世界绿色低碳发展潮流,自主实现发展方式的转变,把传统的资源依赖型、粗放扩张的发展方式转变到新型的技术创新型、内涵提高的发展方式上来,基本走上绿色低碳和可持续发展的轨道。     

Visioneering: an essential framework in sustainability science

The science of sustainability has inevitably emerged as a vibrant field of research and education that transcends disciplinary boundaries and focuses increasingly on understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES). Yet, sustainability remains an elusive concept, and its nature seems unclear for the most part. In order to truly mobilize people and nations towards sustainability, we place emphasis on the necessity of understanding the nature, cost and principles of ‘visioneering’—the engineering of a clear vision. In SES, purpose is the most important pillar, which gives birth to vision—the key to fulfilling the systems’ mission. Such a systems perspective leads us to redefine resilience as jumping back to the original purpose, for which SES do not necessarily retain the same structures and functioning after disturbances. A sustainable future will require purpose-driven transformation of society at all scales, guided by the best foresight, with insight based on hindsight that science can provide. Visioneering with resilience-based systems thinking will provide communities with a logical framework for understanding their interconnections and purposes, envisioning a sustainable web of life, and eventually dancing with the systems.     

Are SDGs suitable for China’s sustainable development assessment? An application and amendment of the SDGs Indicators in China

In order to further ensure that the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is to be implemented and the action measures of all countries are consistent, the United Nations has put forward a set of indicators to monitor and evaluate the progress of global sustainable development. This set of evaluation indicators is aimed for global and regional progress. An important feature of the evaluation indicators is that they are internationally comparable, but due to the large differences in the levels of sustainable development among countries, this framework of evaluation indicators has a disadvantage that it does not apply to tracking the progress of sustainable development at the national level. This paper focuses on the analysis of specific issues in the application of the global sustainable development indicators framework to meet the goals and targets of the UN and builds a system of evaluation indicators to assess the progress of sustainable development at the national level in China, and offers a perspective to assess China’s progress as well.     

From global sustainability research matrix to typology: a tool to analyze coastal and marine social-ecological systems

An attempt is made to develop a coastal and marine social-ecological typology. An explicitly regional focus is taken to explore how a regionally grounded, multi-scale analysis may support multi-level local to global sustainability efforts. A case study from Indonesia exemplifies this approach. Social-ecological sustainability problems, caused by drivers at different earth system levels, lead the way into the proposed typology. A social-ecological system consists of a biogeophysical territory, an identified issue and the associated social agents. It can extend across disciplines as well as across spatial and institutional levels and scales. A global sustainability research matrix, which is based on ecozones and problem types, can thus be constructed and serves as a research-driven multi-level typology. The regional application links directly to stakeholder agendas at the problem level. It is argued that some of the central functions of coastal and marine social-ecological systems are resource provision, livelihood access, and storm and erosion protection, which need special attention in a coastal and marine social-ecological typology, as exemplified in the Indonesian case study used. This contribution is an exploratory research to propose steps toward such a typology. It is extended to the social-ecological subsystems—natural, social, governance—and applied to additional cases. A two-dimensional, hierarchical typology is proposed as a tool to analyze, compare and classify coastal and marine systems. A policy typology is added to assess changes. A governance baseline is assumed to foster normative sustainability goals. A subsystems appraisal typology is meant to evaluate action results. Finally, unresolved methodological questions are discussed.     

Influence of community-based natural resource management strategies in the resilience of social-ecological systems

Different social-ecological systems around the world are managed under community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. This paper analyses how CBNRM strategies influence the resilience of social-ecological systems to the disturbances they face, drawing upon the experience of three Latin American cases (two in Mexico and one in Colombia). The cases differ in their CBNRM approach and in the time these governance systems have been in place. By using a mixed-method approach, we review the socio-ecological history and describe each CBNRM characteristics. We then assess their resilience to socioeconomic and environmental disturbances through a set of indicators. We found that CBNRM strategies influence positively and negatively resilience and that internal decisions might address important threats. On the positive side, the social-ecological systems with longer tradition of CBNRM and more local buy-in of commonly agreed objectives appear to be more resilient to environmental challenges. But, internal governance factors such as power imbalances, poor income distribution, and gender inequities linked to CBNRM undermine resilience and foster out migration. Finally, communities appear to have limited capacities to cope with external disturbances such as global drivers of change or national policies that negatively affect their social-ecological resilience.

     

《中国21世纪议程》:迎接挑战的战略抉择与实践探索

制定《中国21世纪议程》是中国发展必然的战略选择,是中国履行环发大会精神的重要举措。近20年来,我国立足基本国情,积极推进《中国21世纪议程》的实施,探索实践中国特色的可持续发展道路,做出了巨大努力,在发展经济、消除贫困、节约资源、保护环境等领域取得了举世瞩目的成就,对全球可持续发展做出了重要贡献。随着世情国情的深刻变化,我国进一步实施可持续发展战略面临着新的挑战,发展中不平衡、不协调、不可持续的问题依然严峻,发展的任务仍然十分艰巨。我们应该坚持以科学发展观为统领,坚定不移地走中国特色的可持续发展之路,充分把握全球绿色技术创新迸发的历史机遇,切实加快经济发展方式的转变;坚持共同但有区别责任的原则和合作共赢的理念,积极参与全球可持续发展治理,促进世界的可持续发展、和谐发展。     

The clean development mechanism—catalyst for wide spread deployment of renewable energy technologies? or misnomer?

The (usually not professed) truth is that we are not destroying the planet due to lack of technology, but due to lack of application of technology. Indeed, opportunities exist for renewable energy technologies’ diffusion under the new climate change regime as they contribute to global sustainability through GHG mitigation and, they conform to national priorities by leading to the enhancement of local economic activity, capacities and infrastructure. The clean development mechanism (CDM), although is considered one of the global policy tools to contribute to sustainable development and technology transfer, has recently been criticised for its unequal distribution of projects across countries and for insufficiently being embedded in developing countries’ national energy context. In the above framework, this article presents the ENTTRANS approach, five indicative renewable energy technologies, and insights about a more effective application of CDM, which may be part of the international process striving towards sustainable development.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PROCESS INDICATORS TO MONITOR FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: PRACTICE TO AN URBAN WATER SYSTEM

Although very often used, the concept of sustainable development has not yet been perceived pragmatically. Due to its process nature, in this paper, we argue that sustainable development is a process in which the essential feedback loops, or Viability Loops as we name them, in the system in question are kept healthy and functional. This process deals with evolutionary changes with the end point not known in advance. According to this perception, measurement of sustainable development does not make sense. Rather, we should look for the process indicators to monitor systems for sustainable development. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to deal with monitoring systems for sustainable development and its practice in an urban water system. Using a system dynamics approach, the paper adopts a systemic monitoring framework based on the idea of Viability Loops to define process indicators to monitor systems for sustainable development. To illustrate the application of the framework, its practice in the urban water system of Tehran, the capital of Iran, is provided as an example. The example of the urban water supply system of Tehran is given as a case study, albeit with some unavailable data. Here, four typical viability loops are discussed. The results of this application show that the flows of informative signals are lacking. Adopting the process indicators, we can see the gaps between the public perceptions of water abundance, the costs of water provision and energy utilizations, and what is going on in the reality are getting wider. That indicates that the viability loops are not functional enough to produce effective changes to offset the reinforcing mechanisms. The sustainable development of the system is impaired due to the persistence of those reinforcing mechanisms.