Regional Disparities in China＇s Mainland at Provincial Level Between 2000 and 2005

Based on the methodology provided by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, we analyze regional disparities in China＇s mainland at provincial level between 2000 and 2005. It regards regional GDP growth as the joint result of contribution of a number of factors, i.e. capital productivity, capital per manpower, specialization, employment rate, active population, and population. The results show that for all provincial units, capital per manpower is a dominant contributing factor to the growth of GDP per capita during the period from 2000 to 2005 while capital productivity has quite significant negative impacts. Specialization contributes differently in different provinces. In most provincial units, employment rate and age activity have a positive impact on growth of GDP per capita, though not very significantly.     

Humble Opinions on the Relationship between the Percentage of Urban Residents in an Urban Region and the Economic Status in This Region in China

It is a fact that in U.S. the immigration between rural areas and city areas is free, but in China this type of immigration is restricted by HUKOU system （Hukou, namely the household registration system, was designed to control rural-urban in China）. All of those national policies in city areas are much better than those in rural areas, so those corresponding differences bring about great discrepancy of the economic status （mainly including GDP per person and income per resident） between rural and city areas in the same urban region, especially in different urban re- gions because the percentage of urban residents in those urban regions is in-equable. The present paper mainly researches the topic of relationship between the percentage of urban residents and the economic status in an urban region in China, including the relationship between the economic and the political functions of a settlement in China during the process of urbanization.     

An Analysis on the Spatial Distribution of Population Aging Pressure in China

Based on comprehensive analysis of the impact of population aging to social and economic development,a comprehensive evaluation system including 18 indexes was constructed for evaluating regional pressure of population aging on social and economic development.Using statistics data of 31 regions in China from 2004 to 2008,the pressure of population aging on social and economic development,was comprehensively evaluated by using the factor analysis method.The spatial distribution of population aging in China was also analyzed.This study is to provide scientific basis for government to make strategies of coping with population aging according to regional pressure of population aging on social and economic development in China.     

Model Modification and Application on Carrying Capacity of Relative Resources

Based on the retrospection of researches on carrying capacity, this article reviewed systematically the research progresses on carrying capacity of relative resources （CCRR）. Then the viewpoint was put forward that CCRR is not an appropriate method of appraising the regional sustainability, but a sound way to obtain cognition for coordinating spatial location and flow of population and economy. However, as the most popular computing method of CCRR, the Weighting Linear Sum Model is defective in the random of weight choice and the neglect of matching among different resources. Therefore, this article established the Geometric Model on CCRR based on modifying Weighting Linear Sum Model, which can be used to appraise regions where resources are close matching. Employing the Geometric Model, the article empirically analyzed the population and economic CCRR in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2006. The result indicates that the population in Hubei Province is overloading while the economic carrying capacity is abundant compared to the whole country, and the economic insufficiency restricts the population carrying capacity. In the future, Hubei Province will become one of the core developing zones which are characterized by economic conglomeration.     

An International Comparative Analysis on China's Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

In this paper,the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries.Then,the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change,so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth.This study concludes that:First,there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries.With the convergence in per capita GDP gap,the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge,and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former,i.e.if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%,the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%.Second,the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure,the rising of energy prices,the advances of technology,and the expansion of investment in fixed assets,and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI.Third,the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment,energy prices,and technological progress between China and eight developed countries,yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI,and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure.Fourth,the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap,whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors,such as difference in investment,technology,and the competition mechanism of prices,which can determine the difference in economic growth,can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

Study on the Non-point Source Pollution in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Taoer River Basin

The Taoer River basin is the epitome in the west of Northeast China and it is one of the most fragile and sensitive ecoregions. Thus, protection of water quality of the Taoer River is important. Not only point source pollution but non-point source (NPS) pollution results in deteriorating water quality. In this study, long-term hydrologic impact assessment model was used to evaluate the impacts of land use change impacts on NPS pollution, and the replacement cost method was used to calculate the economic loss caused by NPS pollution. Through analyzing the NPS pollutant loads of different land categories and the economic loss, the article puts forward that there exists a close relationship between land-use types and NPS pollution, and agricultural pollution is the main component of the NPS pollution in this area. The results of this study can provide decision-making basis for agricultural development and land-use change.     

Examination of Resource Curse Hypothesis: Mineral Resources Exploitation and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Autonomous Region

The mineral resources exploitation stage and the economic growth rate are various in different regions of Xinjiang Autonomous region. Using the method of location quotient, this paper identifies and classifies the intensive regions of three types of mineral resources, known as coal, oil and natural gas, respectively. The intensive regions of economic growth were also identified, according to the rate of per capita GDP growth at prefecture, autonomous prefecture and city. The relationships between different mineral resources and economic growth are different, for example, the relationship between economic growth and coal resource is positive, while the relationship between economic growth and oil resource, or natural gas resource is negative. This study empirically examines the effects of natural resources on economic growth of Xinjiang. The results show that whilst natural resources have a positive impact on growth, and can make a negative impact on growth through the transmission channels, such as investment, manufacture, human capital, and scientific and technologic innovation. Moreover, it studies the transmission channels, that is, the effect of natural resources on the other explanatory variables, and calculates the indirect effect of natural resources on growth for each transmission channel, and comprehensive effects of natural resources on growth. The calculated result of comprehensive effects indicates that the positive direct effects of natural resources on growth are shown to outweigh the negative indirect effect of Xinjiang autonomous region.     

Impact of Growing Income Inequality on Sustainable Development in China： A Provincial-level Analysis

A growing body of literature has documented the rapidly increasing income disparities that accompanied China＇s economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s, and the driving factors behind this. Growing income inequality in its turn may have important implications for the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and natural capital and as a consequence for sustainable economic development. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential impact of income inequality on savings, human resources and the environment in China. It starts with an overview of the different causal mechanisms through which income inequality may affect the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and natural capital, and discusses to what extent these causal relationships may be relevant in the case of China. Next, provincial data for the year 2002 are used to explore the relationship between income inequality and different elements of sustainable development in China. It is found that income inequality does not affect aggregate savings levels. Rising inequality, however, contributes to lower health and possibly also to higher fertility levels. It also lowers the use of chemical fertilizers in agriculture and therefore is likely to reduce water pollution. Other types of environmental degradation are not affected.     

Population,development,and environment in India

High population growth and continued economic development have caused serious environmental damage in the Asia Pacific region.However,the recent experience is that the pace of environmental degradation is faster in developing countries than in developed countries.To this end,the study seeks to assess the impact of population pressure on India’s environment,with particular reference to the degradation of natural endowments like land and water resources and the resultant environmental pollution in the six regions of India.The rapid economic growth and expansion of infrastructure development in recent decades have not come without serious environmental consequences particularly in the southern,northern,and western regions.But in the eastern,north-eastern,and central regions of the country,environmental damage has been mainly due to rapid population growth.     

Study on Simulating Spatial Distribution and Varying Patterns of Urumqi＇s Population

In this paper, an approach to simulate the spatial distribution of urban population is proposed using urban land use and population statistical data through the geographical information systems （GIS）. Then, the spatial population distribution of Urumqi as a case is simulated by the approach mentioned above and its varying patterns are analyzed by the raster population surface. As a result, producing raster population surface is more accurate and natural than the traditional choropleth map of population density. Concerning the spatial population distribution of Urumqi, the population density declines from south to north and the population distribution mainly presents＇ ＂T-type＂, the population distribution presents multicentre agglomeration and the population distribution of the districts shows different features. The population density varies significantly with the increase in the distance from central business district （CBD）. Finally, it is found in this paper that the development history of districts, terrain and traffic road are main factors that have an influence Urumqi＇s population distribution. This paper tries to provide more accurate population data for the plan and management of urban land, traffic and public facilities in order to enrich the researches on urban population distribution.     

太湖流域城市化水平及外来人口影响测评

太湖流域属于我国东部沿海经济较发达的地区,2000年城市化水平达到66.17%,接近全国平均水平的两倍。自改革开放以来,该地区工业化发展迅速,由以乡镇企业为主过渡到外资和民营企业的大力发展,吸引了来自全国各地的就业迁移人口,成为全国流动人口的主要集中区。同时使得外来人口成为地区社会经济发展规划不可忽视的重要因素。以第五次人口普查资料为基础分析了太湖流域外来人口来源的地域和城乡构成,计算了外来人口数量及分布情况,指出外来人口的城乡非均衡分布促成地区城镇化率的小幅上升,太湖流域各地区的上升幅度在2%左右,部分解释了隐性城镇化率的产生。在城市市区,外来人口平均占到总城市人口的18%。对于50万人口以上城市,外来人口比重与城市规模表现出良好的相关性,可用于指导城市人口规模及地区城镇化水平预测。     

Climate impact on agroeconomy in semiarid region of Armenia

With 21 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in agricultural sector and having consistently experienced natural disasters (e.g., drought, flood), Armenia is very vulnerable to climate and its change. Given the fact that 63 % of the entire land is planted with grains, this study primarily focuses on the market for wheat flour and bread. Economic welfare loss due to drought episodes is calculated using the economic data integrated with climate measures. Economic data are utilized for the period 1995–2011 (obtained from Statistical Office of Armenia) and specifically include the quantity produced and consumed of wheat flour and bread combined with mean prices, population income, GDP in the agricultural sector, GDP in the planting sector, and governmental expenditure on subsidies. Climate data include temperature and precipitation during the period 1966–2011 (obtained from National Hydrometeorological Service of Armenia). The analysis includes three main components. The first utilizes a market framework that analyzes the impact of climate on equilibrium prices and quantities as well as trade and tax effects. The second employs a logarithmic utility function to estimate the effective insurance policy for the agricultural sector using risk management strategies. Lastly, a macroeconomic model has been developed to assess the efficient sum of governmental expenditure on subsidies and irrigation during the drought episodes and during the mean climatic conditions. All three parts of the study are developed for the first time.     

经济转型背景下工业污染时空格局演变及其驱动因素研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

合力打好污染防治攻坚战、强化区域生态环境共保是全面贯彻落实绿色发展理念,推动长三角地区更高质量一体化发展的重要内容。在中国区域经济转型发展背景下,利用城市工业污染物排放和经济社会发展统计数据,重点分析了2003～2015年长三角地区主要工业污染物排放相对规模和强度的时空格局演变规律,探讨了经济转型发展等因素对工业污染时空格局的动态影响机制。研究结果表明:(1)长三角地区主要工业污染物排放相对规模和强度总体呈下降趋势,2003～2015年工业废水、SO_2排放总量分别削减约13%和24%,每万亿元工业总产值的废水、SO_2和烟(粉)尘排放量分别削减87%、88%和71%左右。(2)工业污染排放仍主要集聚在沿沪宁、沿长江和沿沪杭甬等工业发达地区以及部分资源型城市,并呈现由核心区向皖江城市带、苏北等外围区转移扩散的态势,但不同污染物之间差异较为显著。(3)外围区工业污染物排放相对强度较高(多为1.0以上),但近年来南京、杭州等核心区的工业污染物(尤其是工业粉尘)排放相对强度有所上升。(4)经济转型是工业污染时空格局演变的重要驱动力,其中产业结构升级、创新与消费驱动转型增长等是抑制工业污染物排放规模扩张的重要因素;而创新投入及技术进步、企业质效提升、外资外贸结构优化等则有利于降低工业污染物排放相对强度;但由于各地经济转型阶段不同,上述因素对工业污染的影响机制存在显著的空间差异。该研究揭示了经济转型背景下工业污染时空格局演变及驱动因素,对于强化新时期长三角地区工业污染协同防治等具有一定政策参考价值。     

资源型城市环境规制的经济增长效应及其传导机制——基于创新补偿与产业结构升级的双重视角

对于中国多数资源型城市来说,改善生态环境与促进经济增长是当前面临的重要任务。一些研究认为治理环境污染可能加重"遵循成本",进而不利于经济增长;也有研究认为环境规制会通过"创新补偿"效应,增进当地产品竞争力,弥补企业成本负担并促进经济增长;此外,还有研究认为环境标准提高有助于区域产业结构升级,进而带动经济增长。为验证中国资源型城市环境规制对经济增长的影响及其传导机制,本文基于2004—2014年资源型城市数据,以样本城市GDP为被解释变量,以工业污染治理设备运行费用为解释变量,进行了面板数据实证分析,并观察了科技行业人员比重和第三产业比重的中介效应。结果显示:(1)资源型城市工业污染物治理对GDP总量和人均GDP的影响均显著为正;(2)在环境规制与GDP(或人均GDP)的正向关系中,科技行业人员比重的提升起到了部分中介作用,即存在显著的创新补偿效应;(3)除了传统观点看到的创新补偿效应,污染治理对产业结构的积极影响也在二者正向关系中有重要的中介作用,而且比创新补偿效应的作用更显著。本文的结论是,资源型城市环境规制未对经济增长造成不利影响,主要是由于经济资源从效益不佳的工业企业流向了第三产业,同时工业部门自身的创新潜力也已逐步凸显。因此,面对经济社会持续发展的压力,资源型城市要取得经济增长与生态环境的双赢,应当强化污染治理成本对企业技术进步的倒逼机制,进一步实现创新驱动发展,同时要构建多元产业体系,促进资源型行业与现代服务业的有效对接和深度融合。     

An International Comparative Analysis on China’s Economic Growth and the Convergence in Energy Intensity Gap and Its Economic Mechanism

Abstract

In this paper, the authors have empirically analyzed the convergence in per capita GDP gap and the convergence in the variation of energy intensity with respect to the change of per capita GDP between China and eight developed countries. Then, the authors run a regression on the impact of decisive factors of economic growth on energy intensity and its change, so as to find out the economic mechanism of energy intensity gap changing with respect to the variation of economic growth. This study concludes that: First, there is a convergence in per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries. With the convergence in per capita GDP gap, the energy intensity gap between China and eight different countries also converge, and the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former, i.e. if the per capita GDP gap between China and the eight developed countries decreases by 1%, the energy intensity gap between them will correspondingly decrease by 1.552%. Second, the energy intensity decreases with the improvement of industrial structure, the rising of energy prices, the advances of technology, and the expansion of investment in fixed assets, and it slightly increases with the increase of FDI. Third, the energy intensity gap between China and eight developed countries narrows with the lessening of the difference in fixed assets investment, energy prices, and technological progress between China and eight developed countries, yet increases with the narrowing of the difference in FDI, and has no significant correlation with the difference in industrial structure. Fourth, the narrowing of difference in per capita GDP between China and the eight developed countries can result in the lessening of energy intensity gap, whose economic mechanism is that the decisive factors, such as difference in investment, technology, and the competition mechanism of prices, which can determine the difference in economic growth, can significantly affect the energy intensity gap.     

京津冀产业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素研究

为探讨京津冀地区温室气体排放强度变化的影响因素,采用对数平均迪式分解模型及归因分析(LMDI-Attribution)方法,基于1996—2014年数据从细分行业角度进行研究。针对温室气体排放强度作产业结构、能源强度和排放因子三因素LMDI乘法分解,对温室气体排放强度变化的影响效应作归因分析,量化4个行业对分解因素影响效应的贡献,得到以下主要结论:1996—2014年京津冀地区温室气体排放强度主要呈现下降趋势,累计下降23.05%。其中,能源强度是温室气体排放强度下降的主导因素,其影响效应为-61.18%,对这一影响效应贡献最大的是工业,并且四大经济部门均通过能源强度在不同程度上使得温室气体排放强度有所减小,可见"阶梯电价"、"千家企业节能项目"、"十大重点节能项目"等相关政策在工业发展中对提高能源效率的作用明显。产业结构使得温室气体排放强度增加23.53%,其主要贡献者是工业,说明"工业产品出口退税率调整"等一系列政策的效果不明显;然而农业则使得温室气体排放强度降低,贡献值为3.09%。碳排放因子在1996—2014年间对温室气体排放强度的影响为60.47%,是京津冀地区温室气体排放强度增加的主要因素,说明京津冀地区的能源结构不合理。工业对这一效应的贡献最大为55.97%。可见,工业在京津冀地区的温室气体减排工作中起到最为关键的作用。     

基于多源遥感信息和土地利用数据的中国海岸带GDP空间化模拟

目前包括GDP在内的社会经济数据大多以行政区划为统计单元,普遍存在统计单元内的数据均一化以及与其他环境数据空间不匹配等问题。以中国海岸带地区为例,利用DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据和植被指数构建的人居指数与非农业GDP之间的线性关系建模,对非农业GDP进行了空间化模拟,基于土地利用数据建立了农业GDP空间化模型,最终得到2010年中国海岸带地区250 m×250 m空间分辨率的GDP密度图。结果显示：相比仅利用夜间灯光数据模拟非农业GDP,人居指数模型较好地改善了夜间灯光数据的像元溢出效应以及过饱和问题,提高了对非农业GDP的模拟精度。栅格尺度上的中国海岸带GDP密度图可以为沿海地区灾害风险评估、社会经济决策、区域规划和可持续发展研究提供基础数据支持。     

An exploration of the interaction between socio-economic productivity and water withdrawal

The term sustainability invites interest in the main factors that affect the deterioration of natural resources. Different hypotheses have been put forward concerning the relationship between water and its effect on different economic sectors. Several questions can be asked here, for example: Does a higher water withdrawal for one sector mean that this sector is adding more to the GDP or is it a sunk cost (it is the cost that should be ignored compared to the benefit of water withdrawal for an individual economic sector) compared with the benefits to the economy? Do social factors affect water withdrawal more than economic factors or are they both impacting equally? We aim to answer these questions and to shed light on different socio-economic factors that affect water withdrawal in different economic sectors. This study investigates, in depth, the interaction between humans and the environment and can be useful in monitoring the direct effect on water withdrawal from agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and on different national economic variables that act as an indicator for economic development and growth. We used simultaneous equation models in our analysis, both the three-stage least squares and the two-stage least squares to explore the relationships. For more credibility, we run the fixed and random effects of 2SLS. Our results showed the influence of trade openness and economic growth on water withdrawal for different economic sectors, and the effect of an increasing demand for water for non-agricultural purposes, which adds pressure on the agricultural sector and eventually may lead to rising food prices.     

基于SD模型的三峡库区快速城镇化地区耕地利用模拟研究

对引起耕地变化的驱动因素进行研究,有利于解决当下人口、经济和社会发展与耕地资源的矛盾。基于对耕地变化相关因素的线性分析,提出改进基于时间序列对耕地变化驱动力静态研究的模式,利用系统动力学模型从动态的耕地变化仿真模拟过程中对长寿区耕地变化趋势进行预测研究,为快速城镇化地区耕地资源的合理利用与保护提供借鉴。结果表明：（1）长寿区耕地面积25 a间共减少 9 535 hm2,在数量上总体呈现波动下降趋势;（2）长寿区耕地变化的主要驱动力与社会经济发展、人口与城市发展、农业结构调整与科技进步密切相关;（3）利用SD模型在不同情景设定下的模拟发现,区内城镇化率对耕地面积的影响＞GDP对耕地面积的影响＞人口增长对耕地面积的影响;（4）耕地利用变化在不同社会经济发展模式下的差异较大,而GDP和城镇化率的缓速增长发展模式最为理想,对区内耕地资源保护有一定的促进作用。由此可以得出,为减轻未来长寿区耕地保护工作压力,必须转变以牺牲耕地作为代价的经济发展模式,通过集约节约用地、积极开展农村建设用地复垦等工作来协调城镇化的快速发展与耕地保护之间的矛盾。 关键词： 耕地变化;驱动力;耕地非农化;系统动力学;城镇化;三峡库区