China

For the first time since the mid-1960s, China became a net oil importer in 1993. That the country will remain a net oil importer is inevitable and probably irreversible for the foreseeable future. In the period to 2000, its crude oil production is projected to increase only 2% annually, while demand for refined oil products is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum. As a result, China's net oil imports are expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day in 2000, accounting for almost one-third of its projected oil consumption. Most of the imports will come from the Middle East, and China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is expected to increase significantly in the future .     

World coal outlook: 1990s

In the 1990s for the newly industrializing nations of the Pacific Rim and for the OECD countries as well, the demand for energy is expected to increase at a rate in excess of that of the increase in GNP. The demand for coal is likely to increase as well but probably to a lesser degree than GNP. This is because coal can expect increasing competition not from oil, but from natural gas. For a whole host of reasons, economic as well as environmental, gas could be the preferred fuel of the 1990s. Nevertheless, coal prices can be expected to increase but low cost production due to come on stream shortly, is likely to keep those increases modest.     

Restructuring of the aluminium industry

In the 1980s, the basic strategies of the major integrated aluminium companies have been to emphasize added investment in downstream activities at the expense of investment in smelting and raw material supply. The paper examines the rationale for such investment strategies, explores the advantages and disadvantages of downstream investment and presents projections of future demand and capacity in the industry. Overall, the industry appears to be in good shape until the mid-1990s when demand is likely to exceed currently projected capacity.     

Dynamics of state mining enterprises during the 1980s and the outlook for the 1990s

This paper examines the evolution of the control by the state of mining and smelting from 1975 to 1989. In 1950, there was little state-owned mining capacity outside the centrally planned economies. A wave of nationalizations of mine assets swept over the developing countries in the late 1960s and early 1970s. State control continued to rise, in developing countries as well as in the developed market economy countries, until the mid-1980s, when the trend reversed. At present some 20% of Western world mineral production is state controlled. The level of control is highest for those minerals mined mainly in the developing countries, and lowest for those minerals mined mainly in the developed market economy countries. The current trend is toward privatization of state-owned mining enterprises in developed countries and it is expected that as the 1990s progress, privatization of such enterprises will also begin to take place in developing countries.     

Impact of market reforms on future patterns of non-ferrous metal consumption of the former Soviet Union

The study examines the implications of market-oriented reforms on the prospects of non-ferrous metal use in the former USSR. Past metal consumption behaviour of the USSR is found to differ considerably from prevailing patterns of the advanced market economies. The study estimates a large 'intensity- of-use' gap across metals, which can be taken as a relatively easily mobilizable source for efficiency improvements via market reforms. Two scenarios for economic reforms are modelled, notably radical and gradual. Both are shown to cause a collapse of varying intensity in domestic metal demand lasting until the mid-1990s. For the subsequent period, a turnaround in consumption trends is projected, which is sharper under the radical reform scenario. The projected collapse of domestic demand argues for an increasing exportable surplus in the former Soviet Union for a range of non-ferrous metals, with potentially severe depressive effect on world prices.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.     

Government fiscal strategy for mining to 2000

World Bank studies predict little or no change in mineral demand in the 1990s, and also an extended period, in real terms, of low mineral prices. In such a climate the fiscal strategy of government needs to be one which emphasizes revenue sources which are independent of mineral prices. In the 1970s, rising prices made fiscal regimes which capture economic rents attractive. In the 1990s, royalties and other duties which are dependent on the level of production and would also take advantage of any short boom in mineral prices would seem to be the best fiscal regime for a government to follow.     

Seaborne iron ore trade in the 1990s

This paper discusses how world steel production and seaborne iron ore trade have grown since 1950. The role of steel production forecasts in determining investment in the iron ore industry is examined. Forecasts for world steel production and the demand and supply of seaborne iron ore in the 1990s are presented. It is predicted that world steel production will increase by 64 million tons between 1991 and 2000. This increase will be located principally in the developing countries and China. The corresponding increase in seaborne iron ore trade will be approximately 55 million tons. Expansion projects will be located mainly in Australia and Brazil, but no greenfield iron ore projects will be undertaken. By the end of the decade, the demand for seaborne iron ore will be equal to its supply.     

Energy Consumption in the Turkish Industrial Sector

Turkey's primary energy resources seem limited as indigenous energy production meets nearly 31 % of the total primary energy demand. But the growth of Turkey's industry gives rise to a substantial increase in energy demand. Final energy consumption grew from 52.6 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in the year 1990 to 78.4 Mtoe in the year 2002. Industrial demand accounts for about 41.6 % of the final energy demand in Turkey. Basic metal industries, non-metallic material products and chemical and petroleum products have the highest energy consumption in industrial sector. In this work, industrial energy consumption and energy consumption of different indsutrial subsectors in Turkey are investigated.     

Policy issues pertaining to the oil and gas sector in India

This article discusses the various phases in petroleum product consumption in India from 1960 to 1996, and analyses the changes in consumption patterns. Consumption is growing rapidly although the intensity of petroleum use and the proportion of petroleum in the overall secondary energy consumption is actually on the decline, especially since the mid-1980s. The proportion of middle distillates in total consumption, especially HSD (High Speed Diesel) which accounts for 45%, is very high mainly because of distortions caused by Government subsidies. The article also analyses expected demand for petroleum products up till the year 2010, emphasizing the need to address the particularly fast growing demand for middle distillates. Further, the article discusses various policy issues pertaining to upstream and downstream activities of oil and gas supply, and emphasizes the need for increased investment in exploration and development, better management of existing reserves, rationalization of pricing policies and the creation of modern infrastructure to meet growing needs.     

Developments and prospects of world lead and zinc mining

World developments in lead and zinc are examined for 1970-90 and projections presented for 1995. Although lead consumption has Increased during the period under review, lead mine production has been on a decline, the differences being made up from secondary lead sources. Lead mine production is projected to be steady to 1995, with increased consumption continuing to be met from secondary sources. Zinc mine production increased at a trend rate of about 1% per year between 1970 and 1990, but for 1991-95, production is expected to grow at a lower rate. For 1990-95 zinc consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 2.3%. This modest mine production increase to 1995 is unlikely to be adequate to meet growth in MEC zinc consumption.     

Australian gold exploration 1976–2003

The Australian gold industry has grown enormously over the past 25 years. Australian mine production of gold in 2003 was 284 t, similar to that of the USA, and behind South Africa, the world's largest gold-producing nation. Gold is Australia's third largest commodity export, worth an estimated A$5.3 billion in 2003–2004.Underpinning the industry is a solid resource base that has grown by successful exploration over the past three decades. Australia ranks third in the world after South Africa and the USA in terms of its economic gold resources. The growth in Australia's gold resources has been underpinned by high levels of exploration and innovations in gold processing technologies, specifically the development of carbon-based gold extraction methods that allowed commercial treatment of low grade ores. It has been supported by advances in gold exploration methods, especially exploration geochemistry.New resources were added at existing deposits and new deposits were found, including several of world class (>100 t contained gold), in each decade over the 25-year-period but resource growth since the 1990s has been dominated by brownfields additions rather than new discoveries. Average costs of discovery have now plateauxed at around A$20–25/oz, after falling sharply during the early to mid-1990s when a number of new discoveries were made, notably in the Yandal belt in Western Australia and the Lachlan Fold Belt in New South Wales. Current gold reserve/production and gold EDR/production ratios are 12 and 19 years, respectively, and indicate that the long-term future of the Australian gold industry depends on continued high levels of exploration and the discovery of new deposits to replace mines that are currently being depleted.     

RISK IN IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY AND THE EFFECTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA, China, and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025, and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability, variability, and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply, Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected, but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025, the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

The Evolution and Role of Non-OPEC Production in the International Oil Market

In 1982, for the first time since OPEC was founded in 1961, its production was surpassed by the non-OPEC countries in the world excluding the centrally planned economies. In that year, for the world as a whole, OPEC provided 35% of the oil consumed. The decline was brought about by a decrease in consumption and by a marked increase in production from non-OPEC sources. It is expected that non-OPEC producers will have the capacity to meet more than half of the world's oil requirements until the early 1990s, at which time OPEC producers will again assume the role of providing over 50% of the world's oil.     

World diamond industry: 1970–2000

The diamond cartel has remained effective in controlling diamond supplies and prices for a longer period than any other major minerals cartel in the twentieth century. This paper examines the diamond pipeline from mine to the jewellery market. Particular attention is given to the characteristics of diamonds and of the industry structure that make the long-term stability of the cartel possible. The strategies of De Beers Consolidated Diamond Mines in controlling rough gem supplies and prices are examined, and projections are made to 2000. The paper shows that in spite of a projected decrease in the share of total diamond production sold through the De Beers' cartel in the 1990s, the cartel is expected to continue effectively to control supplies and prices.     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.     

Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production1

Elcock, Deborah, 2010. Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):447-460. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00413.x Abstract: This study investigates how meeting domestic energy production targets for both fossil and renewable fuels may affect future water demand. It combines projections of energy production developed by the U.S. Department of Energy with estimates of water consumption on a per-unit basis (water-consumption coefficients) for coal, oil, gas, and biofuels production, to estimate and compare the domestic freshwater consumed. Although total domestic freshwater consumption is expected to increase by nearly 7% between 2005 and 2030, water consumed for energy production is expected to increase by nearly 70%, and water consumed for biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol) production is expected to increase by almost 250%. By 2030, water consumed in the production of biofuels is projected to account for nearly half of the total amount of water consumed in the production of all energy fuels. Most of this is for irrigation, and the West North Central Region is projected to consume most of this water in 2030. These findings identify an important potential future conflict between renewable energy production and water availability that warrants further investigation and action to ensure that future domestic energy demand can be met in an economically efficient and environmentally sustainable manner.     

Intensive Livestock Farming: Global Trends, Increased Environmental Concerns, and Ethical Solutions

By 2050, global livestock production is expected to double—growing faster than any other agricultural sub-sector—with most of this increase taking place in the developing world. As the United Nation’s four-hundred-page report, Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options, documents, livestock production is now one of three most significant contributors to environmental problems, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions, land degradation, water pollution, and increased health problems. The paper draws on the UN report as well as a flurry of other recently published studies in order to demonstrate the effect of intensive livestock production on global warming and on people’s health. The paper’s goal is to outline the problems caused by intensive livestock farming and analyze a number of possible solutions, including legislative changes and stricter regulations, community mobilizing, and consumers choosing to decrease their demand for animal products.     

Catalyzing Collaboration: Wisconsin’s Agency-Initiated Basin Partnerships

Experience with collaborative approaches to natural resource and environmental management has grown substantially over the past 20 years, and multi-interest, shared-resources initiatives have become prevalent in the United States and internationally. Although often viewed as “grass-roots” and locally initiated, governmental participants are crucial to the success of collaborative efforts, and important questions remain regarding their appropriate roles, including roles in partnership initiation. In the midst of growing governmental support for collaborative approaches in the mid-1990s, the primary natural resource and environmental management agency in Wisconsin (USA) attempted to generate a statewide system of self-sustaining, collaborative partnerships, organized around the state’s river basin boundaries. The agency expected the partnerships to enhance participation by stakeholders, leverage additional resources, and help move the agency toward more integrated and ecosystem-based resource management initiatives. Most of the basin partnerships did form and function, but ten years after this initiative, the agency has moved away from these partnerships and half have disbanded. Those that remain active have changed, but continue to work closely with agency staff. Those no longer functioning lacked clear focus, were dependent upon agency leadership, or could not overcome issues of scale. This article outlines the context for state support of collaborative initiatives and explores Wisconsin’s experience with basin partnerships by discussing their formation and reviewing governmental roles in partnerships’ emergence and change. Wisconsin’s experience suggests benefits from agency support and agency responsiveness to partnership opportunities, but cautions about expectations for initiating general-purpose partnerships.