Assessment of transboundary environmental effects in the Pearl River Delta Region: Is there a role for strategic environmental assessment?

China's EIA Law does not require transboundary proposals to be assessed, despite recognition of this globally, for example in the Espoo Convention and Kiev Protocol, and in the European EIA and SEA Directives. In a transboundary context assessment within a state is unusual, as regulating these effects is primarily about the relationship between states. However where a state has more than one legal system such as in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region of southern China, transboundary effects should also be addressed. Yet despite the geographical connections between Guangdong Province in mainland China (where the EIA Law applies) and the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions (which have their own provisions, neither of which requires transboundary assessments), EIA and SEA are carried out separately. Coordinated or joint approaches to transboundary assessment are generally absent, with the legal autonomy of Hong Kong and Macau a major constraint. As a result institutional responses at the policy level have developed. The article considers global experiences with regulating transboundary EIA and SEA, and analyses potential application to land use, transport and air and water planning in the PRD Region. If applied, benefits may include prevention or mitigation of cumulative effects, broader public participation, and improvements to environmental governance. The PRD Region experience may encourage China to conduct and coordinate EIA and SEA processes with neighbouring states, which has been non-existent or extremely limited to date.     

Using a Bayesian Network to Summarize Variability in Numerical Long-Term Simulations of a Meteorological–Marine System: Drift Climatology of Assumed Oil Spills in the North Sea

Climate-related scientific analyses of meteorological–marine systems are often based on numerical long-term simulations at high spatial and temporal detail. Such comprehensive data sets require much resources and specific evaluation tools, which sometimes hampers their use within interdisciplinary projects. In the present study, we propose the use of a Bayesian network to represent simulated transports in the North Sea depending on variable external forcing in terms of conditional probabilities. Eliciting probability tables from multi-decadal numerical simulations ensures that all realistic weather and resulting sea state conditions are covered in agreement with the frequency of their occurrence. The probabilistic representation conveniently allows for conditioning numerical simulations on either external forcing (weather conditions) or observed transports. In the latter case, the Bayesian inversion formula becomes involved to transfer information in a direction opposite to causal dependencies encoded in the underlying mechanistic model. We show that simulated travel time distributions even allow for taking into account a substance’s specific half-life, although this was not an issue in the original passive tracer simulations.     

Natural and anthropogenic influences on a red-crowned crane habitat in the Yellow River Delta Natural Reserve, 1992–2008

This study aims to assess the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic variables on the change of the red-crowned crane habitat in the Yellow River Nature Reserve, East China using multitempopral remote sensing and geographic information system. Satellite images were used to detect the change in potential crane habitat, from which suitable crane habitat was determined by excluding fragmented habitat. In this study, a principal component analysis (PCA) with seven variables (channel flow, rainfall, temperature, sediment discharge, number of oil wells, total length of roads, and area of settlements) and linear regression analyses of potential and suitable habitat against the retained principal components were applied to explore the influences of natural and anthropogenic factors on the change of the red-crowned crane habitat. The experimental results indicate that suitable habitat decreased by 5,935 ha despite an increase of 1,409 ha in potential habitat from 1992 to 2008. The area of crane habitat changed caused by natural drivers such as progressive succession, retrogressive succession, and physical fragmentation is almost the same as that caused by anthropogenic forces such as land use change and behavioral fragmentation. The PCA and regression analyses revealed that natural factors (e.g., channel flow, rainfall, temperature, and sediment discharge) play an important role in the crane potential habitat change and human disturbances (e.g., oil wells, roads, and settlements) jointly explain 51.8 % of the variations in suitable habitat area, higher than 48.2 % contributed by natural factors. Thus, it is vital to reduce anthropogenic influences within the reserve in order to reverse the decline in the suitable crane habitat.     

Influence of water salinity on corrosion risk—the case of the southern Baltic Sea coast

Water corrosivity in Gdansk Bay, Poland, the southern part of the Baltic Sea, was investigated. The analysed region is heavily industrialized, and the coastline is very diverse. Twenty-seven test points along the coastline were selected. Water parameters such as salinity, total dissolved solids content, resistivity, conductivity, oxygenation, pH and corrosion rate were determined. The results of the investigation are presented. Water samples were collected, and structural steel specimens were exposed in the water for 2 months. The corrosion rate for each test point was determined and plotted on a map. The spatial distribution of water parameters was calculated using the ‘inverse distance to a power’ method and presented on the maps. Salinity did not exceed 0.7 %, and average corrosion rate equalled 0.0585 mm/year.     

3D Numerical Model of the Thermal Interaction Between Sediment–Water–Atmosphere

This paper describes a three-dimensional numerical model of heat flux using finite-difference approximation for the simulation, prediction, and visualization of sediment, water, and air temperature, applied in Villa del Mar saltmarsh, Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina. To make this computation, we develop an open-source software tool called Hemera 1.0 which is characterized by having little complexity and low hardware requirements. The model considers three heat transfer processes: diffusion, convection, and radiation, using bulk aerodynamic formulas as boundary conditions between the interfaces. The aforementioned model was applied for the month of January 2009. The model reproduced adequately the physical processes of the heat balance and showed an adequate response to changes in the boundary conditions. In addition, according to the model design, meteorological and oceanographic data and some soil properties are the only data input used for modeling. It is easily adaptable to other environments such us lakes and reservoirs, among others, in order to carry out similar studies.     

Simulation and Trend Analysis of the Water Quality Monitoring Daily Data in Nestos River Delta. Contribution to the Sustainable Management and Results for the Years 2000–2002

The transboundary River Nestos in the Balkan Peninsula is a surface water resource shared by Hellas and Bulgaria. The Public Power Corporation of Hellas (DEH) proceeded to the dams' construction of Thesaurus in 1997 and Platanovrissi in 2000, to satisfy the increased needs for power production and irrigation in the Regions of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace in the Hellenic Territory. DEH following the Ministerial Agreement of the Hellenic Parliament ‘`KYA 18492/19—09—1996’' funded a series of Research Projects concerned on the monitoring of the water quantity and quality data of Nestos from the Hellenic-Bulgarian borders to its estuaries in the Thracian sea. ‘`PERSEAS’' Research Group from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, carried out the research, design, construction, installation, operation and maintenance of the ‘`R.E.MO.S.’' (Remote Environmental MOnitoring System) networks. Three REMOS networks have been installed in the areas of (a) the River Nestos deltaic channel, (b) Thesaurus dam-lake in the intramountainous valley and (c) Potamoi (Despat) and Pagoneri (Nestos) villages close to the borders between Hellas and Bulgaria. They record water level (H), water and air temperature (T), water conductivity (ECw), Redox potential (RP) and dissolved oxygen (DO) on a 24h basis, since the beginning of the year 2000. The research carried out in this paper, is focused on the REMOS station in the final course of Nestos in the deltaic area. The continuous monitoring and the data analysis yield useful results for the quality and quantity of the hydrologic regime of Nestos after the dams' construction, as well as for the trends detected of the quality parameters (ECw, RP and DO) and the water level, using the nonparametric Spearman's criterion. The best fitted model of time trend, for each variable, was chosen. The statistical sample of each one of the quality variables consisted of about 1000 values based on daily measures on a three years monitoring program (1/1/2000—31/12/2002). Further research and analysis for the other network stations of REMOS should provide useful results for the sustainable management of the transboundary River Nestos.     

Temporal and spatial change detecting (1998–2003) and predicting of land use and land cover in Core corridor of Pearl River Delta (China) by using TM and ETM+ images

Land use/land cover (LULC) has a profound impact on economy, society and environment, especially in rapid developing areas. Rapid and prompt monitoring and predicting of LULC’s change are crucial and significant. Currently, integration of Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) methods is one of the most important methods for detecting LULC’s change, which includes image processing (such as geometrical-rectifying, supervised-classification, etc.), change detection (post-classification), GIS-based spatial analysis, Markov chain and a Cellular Automata (CA) models, etc. The core corridor of Pearl River Delta was selected for studying LULC’s change in this paper by using the above methods for the reason that the area contributed 78.31% (1998)–81.4% (2003) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to the whole Pearl River Delta (PRD). The temporal and spatial LULC’s changes from 1998 to 2003 were detected by RS data. At the same time, urban expansion levels in the next 5 and 10 years were predicted temporally and spatially by using Markov chain and a simple Cellular Automata model respectively. Finally, urban expansion and farmland loss were discussed against the background of China’s urban expansion and cropland loss during 1990–2000. The result showed: (1) the rate of urban expansion was up to 8.91% during 1998–2003 from 169,078.32 to 184,146.48 ha; (2) the rate of farmland loss was 5.94% from 312,069.06 to 293,539.95 ha; (3) a lot of farmland converted to urban or development area, and more forest and grass field converted to farmland accordingly; (4) the spatial predicting result of urban expansion showed that urban area was enlarged ulteriorly compared with the previous results, and the directions of expansion is along the existing urban area and transportation lines.     

Estimation of riverine loads of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea, 1970–1993

This article presents the results of the first critical examination of time series of riverine nutrient-load data for the entire Baltic Sea drainage area. Water quality data collected by or for the different national environmental agencies were compiled and analysed statistically to identify and remove inconsistent or obviously incorrect observations. Moreover, sampling tours were undertaken to acquire additional information about the present nutrient concentrations in the largest rivers in the study area. Gaps in the time series of approved data were then filled in by employing statistical interpolation and extrapolation methods. Thereafter, the concentration and runoff data were combined to obtain estimates of monthly nutrient loads for the time period 1970–93. The results of the calculations showed that although there had been substantial changes in land use, atmospheric deposition and wastewater treatment in many parts of the study area, the total riverine loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the Baltic Sea have been fairly constant since 1980, and most likely also since 1970. Moreover, the interannual variation was clearly correlated to the runoff. The mean annual loads for the time period 1980–93 were found to be about 825 000 tonnes N and 41 000 tonnes P, respectively. This implies that (i) several other investigators have strongly underestimated the riverine loads of nutrients, especially the nitrogen, and that (ii) the riverine loads by far exceed the input to the Baltic Sea from other sources, {i.e.} atmospheric deposition, direct emissions from cities and industries along the Baltic Sea coast and nitrogen fixation by marine algae.     

Assessment of effects of climate change and grazing activity on grassland yield in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Inter-annual dynamics of grassland yield of the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China in 1988–2005 was analyzed using the GLO-PEM model, and the herbage supply function was evaluated. The results indicate that while grassland yield in the region showed marked inter-annual fluctuation there was a trend of increased yield over the 18 years of the study. This increase was especially marked for Alpine Desert and Alpine Steppe and in the west of the region. The inter-annual coefficient of variation of productivity increased from the east to the west of the region and from Marsh, Alpine Meadow, Alpine Steppe, Temperate Steppe to Alpine Desert grasslands. Climate change, particularly increased temperatures in the region during the study period, is suggested to be the main cause of increased grassland yield. However, reduced grazing pressure and changes to the seasonal pattern of grazing could also have influenced the grassland yield trend. These findings indicate the importance of understanding the function of the grassland ecosystems in the region and the effect of climate change on them especially in regard to their use to supply forage for animal production. Reduction of grazing pressure, especially during winter, is indicated to be critical for the restoration and sustainable use of grassland ecosystems in the region.     

Effect of water quality parameters on the distribution of Pleuromamma (Copepoda–Calanoida) species in the Indian Ocean: a statistical approach

The region between 10 degrees N and 10 degrees S latitude was known to be congenial for distribution of Pleuromamma species. Diel and ontogenetic migrations were observed for Pleuromamma xiphias. Multivariate analyses such as factor analysis on species' abundance and predictive step-up multiple regression models of water quality parameters: temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and their first order interaction effects on Pleuromamma species' abundance, were carried out in the regions, off 10 degrees N, 10 degrees N to 10 degrees S, 10 degrees S to 30 degrees S, along the Somali Coast (38 degrees S-40 degrees S) and a fifth region along the western boundary of the above four regions. Relation between Pleuromamma species' abundance and the water quality parameters showed a decreasing trend in the variability explained (VE) from region 1 (VE = 55.19%) to region 4 (VE = 31.15%) in the models, indicating that the influence of other ecological factors was of higher significance in the south than in the north, with a north south gradient. Indices of diversity (Shannon-Weaver) and evenness (Heips) were calculated and lognormal distributions fitted for these indices were found to be a good fit (p < 0.05). The five regions were compared, based on critical ratio of the diversity index. Shannon-Weaver diversity showed higher values during night collections than day collections, justifying the tendency for diurnal variations. Diversity and dominance were highly (r = 0.95) correlated. A multilinkage cluster analysis by group averaging method for the species, based on the standardised values of log(10) (X + 1) transformed species' abundance, showed that Pleuromamma indica, Pleuromamma gracilis and Pleuromamma abdominalis were not segregated in any of the five regions. Bray and Curtis (1957) coefficient of similarity for the species in the five regions combined together, showed 50% similarity for the cluster containing circum-global species, Pleuromamma piseki, P. gracilis, P. abdominalis and P. borealis. The species, P. indica and P. xiphias entered this cluster at 22% similarity level. Multivariate factor analysis by row normalisation (for species) and column normalisation (for stations), using varimax rotation to simple structure for unique grouping of species as well as stations, carried out in the five regions, showed that the maximum number of species' clusters were obtained in region 2, indicating a higher variability in the ecological conditions in this region than in the other four regions. The significance of the factor model and the differential factor groups of species were also determined in the studied regions. On a broader scale, based on the ecological aspect, the first four regions could be reduced to two regions, viz, region 1 including the north off 10 degrees N, Central Indian Ocean and the area of subtropical convergence, and region 2 consisting exclusively of the equatorial region between 10 degrees N and 10 degrees S based on distribution of Pleuromamma species. The plot of the species abundance with respect to latitude also showed such a demarcation.     

Spatial distribution pattern of degree–day factors of glaciers on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Glaciers have a very obvious feedback effect on the global water cycle and environmental change. The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, also known as the “Water Towers of Asia,” provides an important source of freshwater resources derived from glacial meltwater. Changes in glaciers on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau are the most important aspect of the research related to global climate change. Because only a few input parameters are available, the degree–day factor model of glacier mass balance has been widely used on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Study of the spatial distribution pattern of degree–day factors for glaciers on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and the factors that influence glaciers is important scientifically. The study of degree–day factors is important to the calculation of the glacial grid mass balance on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, and this data can be used in the analysis of the response of glaciers experiencing climate change and for predicting future glacial trends. Through an analysis of the degree–day factors related to 24 glaciers on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, one can conclude that the mean value of glacial degree–day factors on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is 8.14 mm day^?1 °C^?1. The glacial degree–day factor shows a longitudinal zonality with values ranging from high to low from east to west, a latitudinal zonality with values ranging from high to low from south to north, and a vertical zonal regularity along with the change of elevation. The spatial distribution pattern of glacial degree–day factors in the Tibetan Plateau is related to the fact that the climate environment across the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is mainly affected by the Indian monsoon, the eastern monsoon, and the westerly winds. The climate gradually changes from cold-humid to warm-humid from northwest to southeast. The single-unit glacier of Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau—the Renlongba Glacier—is located in the southeastern portion of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau in a warm and humid climate; its degree–day factor is slightly large, averaging at 6.12 mm day^?1 °C^?1. Mountainous barriers exist in the eastern and western parts of the Renlongba Glacier. On the east side, the degree–day factor is small (5.63 mm day^?1 °C^?1) because of large mountains block weather systems. The glacial tongue is affected by valley wind, contributing to glacial ablation, so the degree–day factor is large on the tongue, averaging at 6.56 mm day^?1 °C^?1. The degree–day factor on the west side of the Renlongba Glacier increases gradually increasing radiation and elevation, presenting a vertical zonal feature. In general, the climate of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is mainly affected by the Indian and eastern monsoons and by westerly winds. In dry and cold climatic conditions, the glacial degree–day factor in the Tibetan Plateau is small, while at warm and humid climate conditions, it is large, with latitudinal, longitudinal, and vertical zonality. In addition, the degree–day factor is also affected by blocking, topography, and other local microclimatic conditions.     

Spatial Economic–Hydroecological Modelling and Evaluation of Land Use Impacts in the Vecht Wetlands Area

Wetlands provide many important goods and services to human societies, and generate nonuse values as well. Wetlands are also very sensitive ecosystems that are subject to much stress from human activities. Reducing the stress on wetlands requires a spatial matching between physical planning, hydrological and ecological processes, and economic activities. Spatially integrated modelling and evaluation can support this. The present study has developed a triple layer model that integrates information and concepts from social and natural sciences to address the analysis and evaluation of land-use scenarios for a wetlands area in the Netherlands, the Vecht area. This is the floodplain of river Vecht, located in the centre of the Netherlands. The study has resulted in a set of linked spatial hydrological, ecological and economic models, formulated at the level of grids and polders. The main activities incorporated in the system of models are housing, infrastructure, agriculture, recreation and nature conservation. The formulation of alternative development scenarios is dominated by land use and land cover options that are consistent with the stimulation of agriculture, nature or recreation. Two aggregate performance indicators have been constructed from model output, namely net present value of changes and environmental quality. The spatial characteristics of these indicators are retained in a spatial evaluation that ranks scenarios.     

Estimation of Emissions of γ-Hexachlorcyclohexane from the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Ecosystem Using a Coupled Efficient Kalman Filter–Atmospheric Transport–Soil Model

An efficient linear Kalman filter has been combined with a coupled atmospheric transport and soil–air exchange model to determine organochlorine pesticides emissions on the regional scale. In this study, results of -HCH emissions from the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence ecosystem, estimated from the coupled model, are presented and discussed. A source receptor technique is used to identify a priori the locations of emission sources of -HCH, the emissions are then updated through a Kalman filtering procedure which minimizes the weighted difference between the predicted mixing ratios from the coupled model and the measured concentrations over the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence river region. Two experiments using the inverse algorithm are carried out. In the first experiment, the coupled atmospheric transport and soil–air exchange model is implemented to predict -HCH air and soil concentrations. Emissions are then updated every 12 days using the updated soil concentrations and emission factors. However, the updated emissions are not input into the coupled atmospheric transport and soil–air exchange model. On the other hand, in the second experiment the updated emissions are fed back to the coupled model, so that the model is reinitialized in each 12 days. The results from the inverse technique for the year 1995 have been compared with grided -HCH emission inventory in Canada, generated by emission factors. It is shown that the estimated emissions of -HCH are consistent with the measured emissions. It is found that the St. Lawrence valley has larger emissions of -HCH than the Great Lakes region, indicating an opposite distribution to the emission usage inventory, but in agreement with the measured -HCH concentration.     

Effect of process conditions on the analysis of free and conjugated estrogen hormones by solid-phase extraction–gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (SPE–GC/MS)

Simultaneous analysis of 11 free estrogen hormones and five conjugated estrogens in water and municipal wastewater was studied. The analytical method was developed and tested for different types of solid-phase extraction adsorbents, eluents, sample containers and storage conditions, derivatization, and matrix effects. Varian Bond Elut C-18 solid-phase extraction adsorbent cartridge was selected based on its high recoveries for both free and conjugated estrogens. Sample storage conditions, as well as selection and pretreatment of sample container materials, can affect the trace level analysis of estrogens. Silanization of glassware is observed to provide low relative standard deviation (RSD) in the analysis and less percentage loss due to contacting with sample container materials. Light exposure during the test can significantly impact the results. The derivatized samples stored at −20°C for at least 6 days showed less than 10.5% average RSD in the analysis. The recovery efficiency in clean water varies from 72% to 101% for free estrogens and 78% to 82% for conjugated estrogens. The method detection limits (MDL) for most of the compounds range from 30 to 870 ng/L using a sample volume of 200 mL. With a sample volume of 3 L, the most sensitive compound produces a MDL of 0.03 ng/L. Dilute methanol is used to wash the loaded cartridge as a cleanup step in order to remove interfering species during analysis of wastewater samples. Using the optimized analytical methods, the concentration level of free estrogens in the influent and effluent municipal wastewaters is tested.     

Spatial Assessment of the Alder Tree in Kushiro Mire, Japan using Remotely Sensed Imagery – Effects of the Surrounding Land Use on Kushiro Mire

The relationship between alder (Alnus japonica) distribution and surrounding land use in Kushiro Mire was spatially assessed using remotely sensed imagery. From the result, it was found out that the expanding area of alder trees in Kushiro Mire was affected by the agricultural land area in the upper course of the river basin and flooding in the lower course of the river. The soil sediments flowing into the Kushiro Mire from the agricultural land resulted in heavy sedimentation that favors the growth of alder trees. Consequently, the number and density of alder trees has increased. The future distribution of alder trees was predicted based on the mechanism of expansion of the alder-tree area in Kushiro Mire, and it was found that large vegetation areas in Kushiro Mire will be changed to areas with alder trees.     

Numerical Modeling of the Impact of a Pumped-Storage Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Reservoirs’ Thermal Stratification Structure: a Case Study in NW Spain

Pumped-storage hydroelectric power plants are generally perceived as an environmentally respectful technology. Nevertheless, the pumping of water from a lower reservoir to an upper impoundment, and the return of that water during power generation, can strongly affect the water quality of the reservoirs. In particular, plant operation can alter their thermal structure, deep water mixing, and water circulation characteristics. The objective of this study is to quantify, through the use of 3D hydrodynamic modeling, the potential impacts of a pumped-storage hydroelectric plant on the thermal stability and mixing of two reservoirs in Galicia, northwest of Spain. To this end, three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations were conducted using the model Delft3D. Two different coupled models, one for each reservoir, were constructed and subsequently tested for several stratification scenarios, according to measured temperature profiles during the spring and summer season. Several reservoir minimum and maximum operation water levels were also considered. Model simulations demonstrated a high level of mixing in the vicinity of the intake-outlet structures, in particular during startup of the power plant, regardless of the water level in the reservoir. Beyond this area, the results showed a limited overall effect on stratification and mixing in the upper reservoir, owing to the relation between the inflow temperatures and the initial temperature profile of this reservoir. A more significant alteration of the thermal structure is expected in the lower reservoir due to its narrow shape and shallow depth at the structure location, as well as the temperature differences between receiving waters and inflow.     

Hydrogeochemical and Geophysical Investigation of the Istanbul Tuzla–Icmeler Spring Area for Environmental and Land Use Planning Purposes

The spring waters of Tuzla–Icmeler are on the Marmara Sea coast in Tuzla town of Istanbul city. The springs discharge a natural sodium chloride mineral water that consumed for ages for therapeutic purposes attributed to their chemical properties. Development of springs commenced during the Ottoman times and a surface collection structure was built at the discharge point of the main spring. Two deep wells were drilled to tap mineral water within the past decades. The bottled water of these springs is also sold for a couple of years and its consumption as a beverage is increasing. The geochemical properties of these springs were investigated by several researchers in the past. This study comprises geochemical and geophysical measurements performed between July 2001 and July 2002 in order to construct a conceptual hydrogeological model for environmental and land use planning purposes. The seasonal evaluation of Tuzla–Icmeler (mineral spring) shows that the chemical properties fluctuate from the beginning of summer until the beginning of winter. This indicates that the overdraft of water during the summer season causes the movement and mix of normal groundwater with the mineralized groundwater. As a result, mixing of less mineralized groundwater decreases the salinity of mineralized groundwater. Using the site-specific hydrogeological, geochemical and geophysical data, zones of protection areas were delineated in order to prevent a possible pollution access to the springs and surroundings from nearby dockyards, dwellings and vehicle traffic. For this purpose, a new land use plan was proposed using the existing settlement sustainability plans.