Nitrogen fixation estimates for the Baltic Sea indicate high rates for the previously overlooked Bothnian Sea

Dense blooms of diazotrophic filamentous cyanobacteria are formed every summer in the Baltic Sea. We estimated their contribution to nitrogen fixation by combining two decades of cyanobacterial biovolume monitoring data with recently measured genera-specific nitrogen fixation rates. In the Bothnian Sea, estimated nitrogen fixation rates were 80 kt N year⁻¹, which has doubled during recent decades and now exceeds external loading from rivers and atmospheric deposition of 69 kt year⁻¹. The estimated contribution to the Baltic Proper was 399 kt N year⁻¹, which agrees well with previous estimates using other approaches and is greater than the external input of 374 kt N year⁻¹. Our approach can potentially be applied to continuously estimate nitrogen loads via nitrogen fixation. Those estimates are crucial for ecosystem adaptive management since internal nitrogen loading may counteract the positive effects of decreased external nutrient loading.     

Assessing the Impacts of Long-Range Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition on Arctic and Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

For more than a decade, anthropogenic sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition has been identified as a key pollutant in the Arctic. In this study new critical loads of acidity (S and N) were estimated for terrestrial ecosystems north of 60° latitude by applying the Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model using two critical chemical criteria (Al/Bc = 1 and ANC_le = 0). Critical loads were exceeded in large areas of northern Europe and the Norilsk region in western Siberia during the 1990s, with the more stringent criterion (ANC_le = 0) showing the larger area of exceedance. However, modeled deposition estimates indicate that mean concentrations of sulfur oxides and total S deposition within the Arctic almost halved between 1990 and 2000. The modeled exceeded area is much reduced when currently agreed emission reductions are applied, and almost disappears under the implementation of maximum technically feasible reductions by 2020. In northern North America there was no exceedance under any of the deposition scenarios applied. Modeled N deposition was less than 5 kg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ almost across the entire study area for all scenarios; and therefore empirical critical loads for the eutrophying impact of nitrogen are unlikely to be exceeded. The reduction in critical load exceedances is supported by observed improvements in surface water quality, whereas the observed extensive damage of terrestrial vegetation around the mining and smelter complexes in the area is mainly caused by direct impacts of air pollution and metals.     

基于灰色层次分析法的船舶废气SOx减排技术评价

由于船舶排放大量硫氧化物造成严重大气污染,因此如何选择经济适用的船舶废气SOx减排技术已成为各大航运企业迫切需要解决地问题。首先,对比分析了当前6种典型的船舶废气SOx减排技术。然后,结合海上运输特点,运用灰色层次分析法从经济、环保、技术与运营4个方面对6种典型的船舶废气SOx减排技术进行综合评价,评选最优指标集,采用灰色关联分析法计算各评价指标的关联系数,再运用层次分析法确定不同评价原则的权重系数,通过加权求和完成灰色综合评价,从而确定不同评价原则的最佳技术方案。最后,比较讨论了不同评价原则的灰色综合评价结果,为船公司优选最佳SOx减排技术提供较为可靠的决策依据与评价方法。     

The potential future contribution of shipping to acidification of the Baltic Sea

International regulation of the emission of acidic sulphur and nitrogen oxides from commercial shipping has focused on the risks to human health, with little attention paid to the consequences for the marine environment. The introduction of stricter regulations in northern Europe has led to substantial investment in scrubbers that absorb the sulphur oxides in a counterflow of seawater. This paper examines the consequences of smokestack and scrubber release of acidic oxides in the Baltic Sea according to a range of scenarios for the coming decades. While shipping is projected to become a major source of strong acid deposition to the Baltic Sea by 2050, the long-term effect on the pH and alkalinity is projected to be significantly smaller than estimated from previous scoping studies. A significant contribution to this difference is the efficient export of surface water acidification to the North Sea on a timescale of 15–20 years.     

Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model: Methodology, application and implications in a UK context

Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the observed and modelled deposition fields are seen as uncertain and the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework is used to choose acceptable sets of model input parameters that minimise the differences between them. These acceptable sets of model parameters are then used to estimate deposition budgets to the UK and to provide a probabilistic treatment of excess deposition over environmental quality standards (critical loads).     

Estimates of critical acid loads and exceedances for forest soils across the conterminous United States

Concern regarding the impacts of continued nitrogen and sulfur deposition on ecosystem health has prompted the development of critical acid load assessments for forest soils. A critical acid load is a quantitative estimate of exposure to one or more pollutants at or above which harmful acidification-related effects on sensitive elements of the environment occur. A pollutant load in excess of a critical acid load is termed exceedance. This study combined a simple mass balance equation with national-scale databases to estimate critical acid load and exceedance for forest soils at a 1-km(2) spatial resolution across the conterminous US. This study estimated that about 15% of US forest soils are in exceedance of their critical acid load by more than 250eqha(-1)yr(-1), including much of New England and West Virginia. Very few areas of exceedance were predicted in the western US.     

A Comprehensive Inventory of the Ship Traffic Exhaust Emissions in the Baltic Sea from 2006 to 2009

This study addresses the exhaust emissions of CO₂, NO_x, SO_x, CO, and PM_2.5 originated from Baltic Sea shipping in 2006–2009. Numerical results have been computed using the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model. This model is based on the messages of the automatic identification system (AIS), which enable the positioning of ships with a high spatial resolution. The NO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 7 % higher than in 2006, despite the economic recession. However, the SO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 14 % lower, when compared to those in 2006, mainly caused by the fuel requirements of the SO_x emission control area (SECA) which became effective in May 2006, but affected also by changes in ship activity. Results are presented on the differential geographic distribution of shipping emissions before (Jan–April 2006) and after (Jan–April 2009) the SECA regulations. The predicted NO_x emissions in 2009 substantially exceeded the emissions in 2006 along major ship routes and at numerous harbors, mostly due to the continuous increase in the number of small vessels that use AIS transmitters. Although the SO_x emissions have been reduced in 2009 in most major ship routes, these have increased in the vicinity of some harbors and on some densely trafficked routes. A seasonal variation of emissions is also presented, as well as the distribution of emissions in terms of vessel flag state, type, and weight.     

Eutrophication trends in forest soils in Galicia (NW Spain) caused by the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds

We calculated the sensitivity of Galician forest soils to eutrophication caused by atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds, using the Simple Mass Balance (SMB) method as described by [Posch, M., de Vries, W., Hettelingh, J.-P., 1995. Critical loads of sulphur and nitrogen. In: Posch, M., de Smet, P.A.M., Hettelingh, J.-P., Downing, R.J. Calculation and Mapping of Critical Thresholds in Europe. Status Report 1995, Coordination Center for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands, pp. 31-42]. Deposition values were used to calculate critical loads exceedance. Galician natural forest ecosystems can support nitrogen deposition loads of more than 10 kg Nha (-1) yr (-1). The lowest critical loads (approximately 10 kg Nha (-1) yr (-1)) mainly occurred in forest stands in the interior zone, while highest critical load values (approximately 68 kg Nha (-1) yr (-1)) were observed in eucalyptus stands at low altitudes in the littoral area. Exceedances based on N deposition levels, calculated from data recorded in 2001, occurred in 40% of the forest soils, showing the need to control N emissions in these areas to prevent possible eutrophication of soils and waters. Analysis of rainfall bulk composition revealed that ammonium, probably derived from agricultural and cattle activities, was the main compound responsible for N deposition in Galicia.     

Assessment of the potential for soil acidification in North India using the critical load approach and locally derived data for acidic and basic inputs

Major ions (Cl-, NO3(-), SO4(2-), Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+ and NH4(+)) were analysed in wet and dry deposition samples collected for 2 years using a polyethylene bottle and funnel collector at Agra in India. The deposition of ionic components (Ca2+ and Mg2+) derived from natural sources i.e. soil were higher than those of anthropogenic origin. In rainwater samples, non-sea-salt fraction was found to be 60-90%. In both wet and dry deposition Ca2+ was found to be the dominant ion which may be due to its large particle diameter. Results suggest that most of the acidity, which occurs due to NO3(-), SO4(2-) and Cl- is neutralized by alkaline constituents, which originate from airborne local soil and dust transported from the Thar desert. Acid neutralizing capacity of soil has also been quantified and found to be 33 x 10(3) neqg(-1). Using deposition data, the critical load for acidity of soil with respect to Ashoka and Eucalyptus was evaluated. The present level of deposition of S and N was found to be much lower than critical loads calculated for S and N. Critical load of exceedance in terms of deposition acidity was also calculated and found to be negative. This indicates that with respect to these species, the ecosystem is protected at the current level of deposition.     

The contribution from shipping emissions to air quality and acid deposition in Europe

A global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM is used to describe the European regional acid deposition and ozone air quality impacts along the Atlantic Ocean seaboard of Europe, from the SO2, NOx, VOCs and CO emissions from international shipping under conditions appropriate to the year 2000. Model-derived total sulfur deposition from international shipping reaches over 200 mg S m(-2) yr(-1) over the southwestern approaches to the British Isles and Brittany. The contribution from international shipping to surface ozone concentrations during the summertime, peaks at about 6 ppb over Ireland, Brittany and Portugal. Shipping emissions act as an external influence on acid deposition and ozone air quality within Europe and may require control actions in the future if strict deposition and air quality targets are to be met.     

Modelling the atmospheric transport and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen over the United Kingdom and assessment of the influence of SO2 emissions from international shipping

A statistical Lagrangian atmospheric transport model was used to generate annual maps of deposition of sulphur and oxidised and reduced nitrogen for the UK at a 5×5 km² resolution. The model was run using emissions for the year 2002. The model was compared with measurements of gas concentrations (SO₂, NO_x, HNO₃ and NH₃) and of wet deposition and aerosol concentrations of SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻ and NH₄⁺ from national monitoring networks. Good correlation was obtained, demonstrating that the model is capable of accurately estimating the mass balance and spatial distribution of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere. A future emissions scenario for the year 2020 was used to test the influence of shipping emissions on sulphur deposition in the UK. The results show that, if shipping emissions are assumed to increase at a rate of 2.5% per year, their relative contribution to sulphur deposition is expected to increase from 9% to 28% between 2002 and 2020. The model was compared to both a European scale and a global scale chemical transport model and found to give broad agreement with the magnitude and location of sulphur deposition associated with shipping emissions. Enforcement of the MARPOL convention to reduce the sulphur content in marine fuel to 1% was estimated to result in a 6% reduction in total sulphur deposition to the UK for the year 2020. The percentage area of sensitive habitats with exceedance of critical loads for acidity in the UK was predicted to decrease by 1% with the implementation of the MARPOL convention.     

Modelling base cations in Europe—sources,transport and deposition of calcium

The deposition of the base cations calcium, magnesium and potassium from the atmosphere needs to be quantified in the calculation of the total deposited acidity in the critical loads approach. Of these base cations, calcium has been found to be the most important in terms of mass deposited. However, the sources of calcium to the atmosphere are not well understood. Recently, the first spatially disaggregated inventory of industrial calcium emissions for Europe was presented by Lee and Pacyna (1998) who estimated a total European emission of 0.7–0.8 Mt yr^-1. However, it is thought that wind blown dust from soils contributes a substantial fraction to the deposition of calcium. In this work, the source strength of calcium from arid regions within the EMEP modelling domain was estimated using the global mineral dust emission data base of Tegen and Fung (1994) and an estimation of the calcium content of soils. This results in a “natural” calcium emission of 6 Mt yr^-1. A long-range transport model, TRACK, was used to calculate the wet and dry deposition of calcium arising from these industrial and natural sources to the UK which resulted in a total deposition of 29–30 kt yr^-1. Of this annual deposition, 0.6–0.7 kt arises from cement manufacturing, 0.02–0.03 kt from iron and steel manufacturing, 0.8–0.83 kt from a large point source power generation, and 28 kt from power generation from a small boiler plant. The natural emissions of calcium from arid regions result in a deposition of calcium to the UK of 0.5 kt yr^-1. The measured wet deposition of calcium to the UK is 89 kt yr^-1 and the estimated dry deposition 14 kt yr^-1. The short-fall in the modelled deposition of calcium is thus of the order of 70 kt yr^-1, which is suggested to arise from wind-blown dust from agricultural land in the UK and mainland Europe. The estimated emissions, and thus modelled deposition are rather uncertain, such that estimating deposition of calcium attributable to agricultural soil emissions by differencing has a large uncertainty. However, this is the first such study of its kind for Europe and represents a first step towards understanding the sources of calcium and their contribution to mitigating deposited acidity from acidifying pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia.     

Quantifying local traffic contributions to NO2 and NH3 concentrations in natural habitats

NO₂ and NH₃ concentrations were measured across a Special Area for Conservation in southern England, at varying distances from the local road network. Exceedances of the critical levels for these pollutants were recorded at nearly all roadside locations, extending up to 20 m away from roads at some sites. Further, paired measurements of NH₃ and NO₂ concentrations revealed differences between ground and tree canopy levels. At “background” sites, away from the direct influence of roads, concentrations were higher within tree canopies than at ground level; the reverse pattern was, however, seen at roadside locations. Calculations of pollutant deposition rates showed that nitrogen inputs are dominated by NH₃ at roadside sites. This study demonstrates that local traffic emissions contribute substantially to the exceedance of critical levels and critical loads, and suggests that on-site monitoring is needed for sites of nature conservation value which are in close proximity to local transport routes.     

A conceptual framework: Redefining forest soil's critical acid loads under a changing climate

Federal agencies of several nations have or are currently developing guidelines for critical forest soil acid loads. These guidelines are used to establish regulations designed to maintain atmospheric acid inputs below levels shown to damage forests and streams. Traditionally, when the critical soil acid load exceeds the amount of acid that the ecosystem can absorb, it is believed to potentially impair forest health. The excess over the critical soil acid load is termed the exceedance, and the larger the exceedance, the greater the risk of ecosystem damage. This definition of critical soil acid load applies to exposure of the soil to a single, long-term pollutant (i.e., acidic deposition). However, ecosystems can be simultaneously under multiple ecosystem stresses and a single critical soil acid load level may not accurately reflect ecosystem health risk when subjected to multiple, episodic environmental stress. For example, the Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina receive some of the highest rates of acidic deposition in the eastern United States, but these levels are considered to be below the critical acid load (CAL) that would cause forest damage. However, the area experienced a moderate three-year drought from 1999 to 2002, and in 2001 red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) trees in the area began to die in large numbers. The initial survey indicated that the affected trees were killed by the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.). This insect is not normally successful at colonizing these tree species because the trees produce large amounts of oleoresin that exclude the boring beetles. Subsequent investigations revealed that long-term acid deposition may have altered red spruce forest structure and function. There is some evidence that elevated acid deposition (particularly nitrogen) reduced tree water uptake potential, oleoresin production, and caused the trees to become more susceptible to insect colonization during the drought period. While the ecosystem was not in exceedance of the CAL, long-term nitrogen deposition pre-disposed the forest to other ecological stress. In combination, insects, drought, and nitrogen ultimately combined to cause the observed forest mortality. If any one of these factors were not present, the trees would likely not have died. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the ecosystem consequences of these interactions as well as limited plot level data to support this concept. Future assessments of the use of CAL studies need to account for multiple stress impacts to better understand ecosystem response.     

Empirical and simulated critical loads for nitrogen deposition in California mixed conifer forests

Empirical critical loads (CL) for N deposition were determined from changes in epiphytic lichen communities, elevated NO(3)(-) leaching in streamwater, and reduced fine root biomass in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) at sites with varying N deposition. The CL for lichen community impacts of 3.1kg ha(-1) year(-1) is expected to protect all components of the forest ecosystem from the adverse effects of N deposition. Much of the western Sierra Nevada is above the lichen-based CL, showing significant changes in lichen indicator groups. The empirical N deposition threshold and that simulated by the DayCent model for enhanced NO(3)(-)leaching were 17kg N ha(-1) year(-1). DayCent estimated that elevated NO(3)(-) leaching in the San Bernardino Mountains began in the late 1950s. Critical values for litter C:N (34.1), ponderosa pine foliar N (1.1%), and N concentrations (1.0%) in the lichen Letharia vulpina ((L.) Hue) are indicative of CL exceedance.     

A statistical approach to the regional use of critical loads

The premise of this paper is that: (1) effects of spatial heterogeneity of watershed response to acid deposition must be considered when models are used to set abatement policies, and (2) the evaluation of critical chemical values is a better measure off the effects of abatement policies than the comparison of deposition values to critical loads. The authors used Monte Carlo methods to apply a site-specific version of the RAINS-Lake-Model to a regional data set from The Netherlands. Statistical methods were then used to identify the important parameters affecting the spatial and temporal response, i.e. a change in pH, of watersheds to acid deposition and a subset of sensitive and insensitive watersheds were derived. The results show that the failure to subset a region into sensitive and insensitive zones may result in an erroneous estimation of the effect of abatement policies based on critical loads alone.     

A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate

A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate.     

Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.     

Framework for the environmental impact assessment of operational shipping

Shipping is an important source of pollution affecting both atmospheric and aquatic environments. To allow for efficient mitigation of environmental degradation, it is essential to know the extent of the impacts of shipping in relation to other sources of pollution. Here, we give a perspective on a holistic approach to studies of the environmental impacts of operational shipping through presentation of an assessment framework developed and applied on a case of shipping in the Baltic Sea. Through transfer of knowledge and concepts, previously used in assessments of air pollution, now applied to assessments of marine pollution and underwater noise, the horizon of understanding of shipping-related impacts is significantly improved. It identifies the main areas of environmental degradation caused by shipping and potential improvements through legislation and technological development. However, as the vast majority of contaminants discharged into the sea are not routinely monitored and assessed, the links between pressure of contaminants from shipping and environmental state and impacts will not be caught in the current environmental regulatory frameworks.     

Forest ecosystems and the changing patterns of nitrogen input and acid deposition today and in the future based on a scenario

A global assessment of the impact of the anthropogenic perturbation of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles on forest ecosystems is carried out for both the present-day [1980-1990] and for a projection into the future [2040-2050] under a scenario of economic development which represents a medium path of development according to expert guess [IPCC IS92a]. Results show that forest soils will receive considerably increasing loads of nitrogen and acid deposition and that deposition patterns are likely to change. The regions which are most prone to depletion of soils buffering capacity and supercritical nitrogen deposition are identified in the subtropical and tropical regions of South America and Southeast Asia apart from the well known 'hotspots' North-Eastern America and Central Europe. The forest areas likely to meet these two risks are still a minor fraction of the global forest ecosystems, though. But the bias between eutrophication and acidification will become greater and an enhanced growth triggered by the fertilizing effects of increasing nitrogen input cannot be balanced by the forest soils nutrient pools. Results show increasing loads into forest ecosystems which are likely to account for 46% higher acid loads and 36% higher nitrogen loads in relation to the 1980-1990 situation. Global background deposition of up to 5 kg N ha-1 a-1 will be exceeded at more than 25% of global forest ecosystems and at more than 50% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils. More than 33% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils will receive acid loads which exceeds their buffering capacity. About 25% of forest areas with exceeded acid loads will receive critical nitrogen loads.