Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

活性焦联合脱硫脱硝脱汞塔入口气流均布与喷氨优化

某新建活性焦联合脱硫脱硝脱汞反应塔在试运行过程中运行阻力大,且脱硫脱硝效率较低。为提升反应塔的性能,以原设备为几何模型,采用CFD方法进行模拟优化。针对影响设备压降和脱硫性能的入口气流均匀性问题,模拟对比了4种导流板方案,考察板间距和圆弧板半径对气流均布的影响。同时为提高喷氨均匀性,结合烟气在过渡气室的流动情况提出了2种喷氨格栅加密方案。模拟结果表明：板间距和圆弧板半径都相同的导流板方案均布气流的效果最好,烟气在活性焦脱硫层的气流均匀性提升了11.48%,同时设备的压降降低了451 Pa。合理的喷氨格栅加密方案使氨气分布均匀性提升了34.88%。反应塔的压降模拟结果与现场实测数据吻合较好,模拟结果对设备的优化设计和实际运行有指导作用。     

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.     

Past,current and future Swedish freshwater monitoring from an authority perspective

The synthesis of the BONUS+ research is introduced. The HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan is examined as a case to illustrate the potentials and challenges in building the science–policymaking interface on a macroregional level. The projects address environmental challenges in the Baltic Sea as defined by the Baltic Sea Action Plan, or consider the environmental governance and decision making within the Baltic Sea context in general. Eutrophication, biodiversity, hazardous substances, maritime activities, and the environment governance are addressed, as are crosscutting issues, such as the impact of climate change, maritime spatial planning and impacts of future development on ecosystem services. The projects contributed to relevant policy developments: 37 consultations carried out at EU level, 49 modifications to policy documents and action plans, 153 suggestions for the efficacy of pertinent public policies and governance, and in 570 occasions, scientists working in BONUS+ projects served as members or observers in scientific and stakeholder committees.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

The Governance of the Mitigation of the Baltic Sea Eutrophication: Exploring the Challenges of the Formal Governing System

This article focuses on the governing system of the mitigation of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. Policies and measures of the Baltic Sea coastal countries, the macro--regional (HELCOM) level, and the level of the European Union are described and governance challenges explicated. We found that the main challenges at different governance levels include: differences between coastal countries in terms of environmental conditions including environmental awareness, overlaps of policies between different levels, the lack of adequate spatial and temporal specification of policies, and the lack of policy integration. To help to meet these challenges, we suggest closer involvement of stakeholders and the public, the improvement of the interplay of institutions, and the introduction of a “primus motor” for the governance of the mitigation of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

北京市交通道路空气中NOx的污染现状及时空变化规律研究

基于2008年及2009年分4个季节对北京市3种类型道路（开阔型、交叉路口型和峡谷型）空气中的NOx的现场监测结果,分析了3种类型道路空气中NOx的污染现状和时空变化规律及影响因素。实验结果表明,昼间北京市各类型街道空气中NOx浓度呈早晚浓度高、中午浓度低的变化规律,NOx浓度随季节和车流量变化较明显。交通道路空气中NO占NOx的分担率高,且有较好的相关性,而NO2分担率较低,与NOx相关性较差。     

A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.     

Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.     

Copper, nickel and lead in lichen and tree bark transplants over different periods of time

This work aimed at comparing the dynamics of atmospheric metal accumulation by the lichen Flavoparmelia caperata and bark of Platanus hybrida over different periods of time. Transplants were exposed in three Portuguese coastal cities. Samples were retrieved (1) every 2 months (discontinuous exposure), or (2) after 2-, 4-, 6-, 8- and 10-month periods (continuous exposure), and analysed for Cu, Ni and Pb. Airborne accumulation of metals was essentially independent of climatic factors. For both biomonitors [Pb]>[Ni]>[Cu] but Pb was the only element for which a consistent pattern of accumulation was observed, with the bark outperforming the lichen. The longest exposure periods hardly ever corresponded to the highest accumulation. This might have been partly because the biomonitors bound and released metals throughout the exposure, each with its own dynamics of accumulation, but both according to the environmental metal availability.     

Temporal trends in the bioaccumulation of trace metals in herring, sprat, and cod from the southern Baltic Sea in the 1994–2003 period

This study is based on raw data obtained from 1 225 samples of herring (Clupea harengus), sprat (Sprattus sprattus), and cod (Gadus morhua) collected in the 1994–2003 period from the Polish coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. This paper presents the results of investigations of the contents of Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Hg, and As in fish. The aim was to identify temporal trends in trace metal contamination and variations in the concentrations of Hg in the flesh of herring, sprat, and cod of different lengths. A positive correlation between fish length and Hg concentration was noted for cod, sprat, and herring. The temporal trend analyses of heavy metal concentrations in the fish in the 1994–2003 period indicated ten significant downward trends out of eighteen tests; these referred to concentrations of Cd, Hg, and Pb in all the species studied, and to As in sprat. Concentrations of Cu and Zn remained stable in all the species studied, as did As in herring and cod. No upward trends were detected in the concentration of trace metals in the fish studied. Smaller scale temporal variations in concentrations of some elements were also observed and were associated with natural events, such as increased river discharge resulting from floods. The most likely factors which contributed to the observed downward trends in heavy metals concentrations in fish could possibly stem from lesser quantities of Cd, Pb, and Hg being introduced to the Baltic Sea with the waters of rivers from Baltic countries, including Poland, and atmospheric depositions in the 1994–2003 period. Diminishing trends of concentrations of these elements in Baltic Sea waters are also evidence of this. These facts might indicate that advantageous changes are occurring in the concentrations of heavy metals in the southern Baltic environment.     

Production and sedimentation of peptide toxins nodularin-R and microcystin-LR in the northern Baltic Sea

This seven-year survey was primarily targeted to quantification of production of nodularin-R (NOD-R), a cyclic pentapeptide hepatotoxin, in Baltic Sea cyanobacteria waterblooms. Additionally, NOD-R and microcystin-LR (MC-LR; a cyclic heptapeptide toxin) sedimentation rates and NOD-R sediment storage were estimated. NOD-R production (70-2450 μg m⁻³; ∼1 kg km⁻² per season) and sedimentation rates (particles; 0.03-5.7 μg m⁻² d⁻¹; ∼0.3 kg km⁻² per season) were highly variable over space and time. Cell numbers of Nodularia spumigena did not correlate with NOD-R quantities. Dissolved NOD-R comprised 57-100% of total NOD-R in the predominantly senescent, low-intensity phytoplankton blooms and seston. Unprecedentedly intensive MC-LR sedimentation (0.56 μg m⁻² d⁻¹) occurred in 2004. Hepatotoxin sedimentation rates highly exceeded those of anthropogenic xenobiotics. NOD-R storage in surficial sediments was 0.4-20 μg kg⁻¹ (∼0.1 kg km⁻²). Loss of NOD-R within the chain consisting of phytoplankton, seston and soft sediments seemed very effective.     

Deposition of reactive nitrogen during the Rocky Mountain Airborne Nitrogen and Sulfur (RoMANS) study

Increases in reactive nitrogen deposition are a growing concern in the U.S. Rocky Mountain west. The Rocky Mountain Airborne Nitrogen and Sulfur (RoMANS) study was designed to improve understanding of the species and pathways that contribute to nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). During two 5-week field campaigns in spring and summer of 2006, the largest contributor to reactive nitrogen deposition in RMNP was found to be wet deposition of ammonium (34% spring and summer), followed by wet deposition of nitrate (24% spring, 28% summer). The third and fourth most important reactive nitrogen deposition pathways were found to be wet deposition of organic nitrogen (17%, 12%) and dry deposition of ammonia (14%, 16%), neither of which is routinely measured by air quality/deposition networks operating in the region. Total reactive nitrogen deposition during the spring campaign was determined to be 0.45 kg ha⁻¹ and more than doubled to 0.95 kg ha⁻¹ during the summer campaign.     

Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland

Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year⁻¹ and 115 t P year⁻¹. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

Alternating Copolymers and Alternative Device Geometries for Organic Photovoltaics

Bathymetry, the underwater topography, is a fundamental property of oceans, seas, and lakes. As such it is important for a wide range of applications, like physical oceanography, marine geology, geophysics and biology or the administration of marine resources. The exact requirements users may have regarding bathymetric data are, however, unclear. Here, the results of a questionnaire survey and a literature review are presented, concerning the use of Baltic Sea bathymetric data in research and for societal needs. It is demonstrated that there is a great need for detailed bathymetric data. Despite the abundance of high-quality bathymetric data that are produced for safety of navigation purposes, the digital bathymetric models publicly available to date cannot satisfy this need. Our study shows that DBMs based on data collected for safety of navigation could substantially improve the base data for administrative decision making as well as the possibilities for marine research in the Baltic Sea.     

Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850–2006

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.