Requirements of future models for inhabited areas

Models for inhabited areas are used in a variety of applications for accidental or continuous releases of radioactivity to atmosphere. Pathways of interest are external exposure from radioactive material in the cloud or deposited on indoor and outdoor surfaces and people, inhalation from the plume and from material resuspended from the ground. In developing a model for inhabited areas it is necessary to consider what the end users may need and ensure that the model is appropriate for the application; different levels of detail may be appropriate for different applications. This paper considers the main processes governing exposure in inhabited areas, commenting on the extent to which we understand them and how well current models reflect this understanding. It also identifies where the authors believe future modelling is needed and the key areas where the current inhabited area models could be improved.     

Upward movement of tritium from contaminated groundwaters: a numerical analysis

This paper describes a research-oriented modelling exercise that addresses the problem of assessing the movement of tritium from a contaminated perched aquifer to the land surface. Participants were provided with information on water table depth, soil characteristics, hourly meteorological and evapotranspiration data. They were asked to predict the upward migration of tritium through the unsaturated soil into the atmosphere. Eight different numerical models were used to calculate the movement of tritium. The modelling results agree within a factor of two, if very small time and space increments are used. The agreement is not so good when the near-surface soil becomes dry. The modelling of the alternate upward and downward transport of tritium close to the ground surface generally requires rather complex models and detailed input because tritium concentration varies sharply over short distances and is very sensitive to many interactive factors including rainfall amount, evapotranspiration rate, rooting depth and water table position.     

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

长江口南槽中段枯季水沙输运特征研究

根据2015年1月7日至14日在长江口南槽中段主槽内获得的流速和悬沙观测资料,运用机制分解法分析了从大潮到小潮连续变化过程中南槽中段的水沙输运机制,通过小波分析方法探讨了悬沙浓度和流速的周期性对悬沙输运的影响。研究结果表明:(1)在一个大小潮周期过程中各潮周期的单宽净输水以向海为主,斯托克斯余流和欧拉余流的强度由大潮到小潮呈减小趋势;(2)各潮周期的单宽净输沙以向陆为主,与净输水方向相反,输沙强度从大潮至小潮呈现"小-大-小"的变化特征,该特征的产生与潮泵效应输沙的剧烈潮周期变化有关,平流输沙、潮泵效应输沙与垂向净环流输沙项是影响潮周期净输沙的主要成分;(3)小波分析表明,悬沙浓度和流速具有多个时间周期的变化,它们与水位的联合作用导致瞬时输沙率具有2个明显的时间周期变化。     

Can ECOPATH with ECOSIM enhance models of radionuclide flows in food webs? An example for 14C in a coastal food web in the Baltic Sea

In this study it was evaluated whether the ECOPATH with ECOSIM software could be used as a platform to facilitate the construction of models and study of transport and accumulation of radionuclides in aquatic food webs. The evaluation was based upon a food web model of carbon (C) and carbon-14 ((14)C) flow for a coastal area in the Baltic Sea, the ECOPATH, the ECOSIM and the ECOTRACE models. The original carbon flows and assumptions were easily incorporated into the ECOPATH and ECOSIM modelling environment. The new model was also well suited to drive a (14)C flow model (ECOTRACE) for each of the organisms included. ECOTRACE estimated steady-state concentrations of (14)C that were between 73 and 142% of the original flows. The results clearly show that there is great potential for a successful development of this approach for integrating scientific knowledge about food webs and radioecological models for aquatic systems.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

Using air quality modeling to study source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides emissions and ozone exposures over the United States

Human exposure to ambient ozone (O₃) has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects. The ozone level at a location is contributed by local production, regional transport, and background ozone. This study combines detailed emission inventory, air quality modeling, and census data to investigate the source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions and population exposure to ambient O₃ in 48 states over the continental United States. By removing NO_x emissions from each state one at a time, we calculate the change in O₃ exposures by examining the difference between the base and the sensitivity simulations. Based on the 49 simulations, we construct state-level and census region-level source–receptor matrices describing the relationships among these states/regions. We find that, for 43 receptor states, cumulative NO_x emissions from upwind states contribute more to O₃ exposures than the state's own emissions. In-state emissions are responsible for less than 15% of O₃ exposures in 90% of U.S. states. A state's NO_x emissions can influence 2 to 40 downwind states by at least a 0.1 ppbv change in population-averaged O₃ exposure. The results suggest that the U.S. generally needs a regional strategy to effectively reduce O₃ exposures. But the current regional emission control program in the U.S. is a cap-and-trade program that assumes the marginal damage of every ton of NO_x is equal. In this study, the average O₃ exposures caused by one ton of NO_x emissions ranges from ? 2.0 to 2.3 ppm-people-hours depending on the state. The actual damage caused by one ton of NO_x emissions varies considerably over space.     

Future directions of meteorology related to air-quality research

Meteorology is one of the major factors contributing to air-pollution episodes. More accurate representation of meteorological fields has been possible in recent years through the use of remote sensing systems, high-speed computers and fine-mesh meteorological models. Over the next 5-20 years, better meteorological inputs for air quality studies will depend on making better use of a wealth of new remotely sensed observations in more advanced data assimilation systems. However, for fine mesh models to be successful, parameterizations used to represent physical processes must be redesigned to be more precise and better adapted for the scales at which they will be applied. Candidates for significant overhaul include schemes to represent turbulence, deep convection, shallow clouds, and land-surface processes. Improvements in the meteorological observing systems, data assimilation and modeling, coupled with advancements in air-chemistry modeling, will soon lead to operational forecasting of air quality in the US. Predictive capabilities can be expected to grow rapidly over the next decade. This will open the way for a number of valuable new services and strategies, including better warnings of unhealthy atmospheric conditions, event-dependent emissions restrictions, and now casting support for homeland security in the event of toxic releases into the atmosphere.     

Investigations of methane emissions from rice cultivation in Indian context

The increasing demand of the growing population requires enhancement in the production of rice. This has a direct bearing on the global environment since the rice cultivation is one of the major contributors to the methane emissions. As the rice cultivation is intensified with the current practices and technologies, the methane fluxes from paddy fields will substantially rise. Improved high yielding rice varieties together with efficient cultivation techniques will certainly contribute to the curtailment of the methane emission fluxes. In this paper, the system dynamic approach is used for estimating the methane emissions from rice fields in India till the year 2020. Mitigation options studied for curtailing the methane emissions include rice production management, use of low methane emitting varieties of rice, water management and fertilizer amendment. The model is validated quantitatively and sensitivity tests are carried out to examine the robustness of the model.     

Integrated models for environmental management: Issues of process and design

Integration has become an important element of natural resource management over recent decades, and managers are now required to consider the social, economic, ecological, and bio-physical effects of alternative management interventions. The problem of managing across many issues is sometimes tackled by putting together a number of individual models. For this approach to work effectively, attention must be paid to both the technical details of the interactions between system components and also to the processes through which these integrated models are developed. This paper explores technical and social aspects of the development of integrated models for environmental management, and discusses two cases within which open modelling and interface prototyping processes were undertaken. The results of this exploration suggest that, for models to be used and accepted widely in integrated environmental management, developers must undertake a process that involves stakeholders and potential users, that exploits the current knowledge, and that illustrates the influence of uncertainty in the technical knowledge. This requires strict attention to the social and technical process of modelling, as well as additional skills in group facilitation and shared vision exploration, so that user expectations can be developed and met in such a way that the best information available is used by decision makers.     

Replacing car trips by increasing bike and public transport in the greater Barcelona metropolitan area: A health impact assessment study

ObjectiveEstimate the health risks and benefits of mode shifts from car to cycling and public transport in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain.MethodsWe conducted a health impact assessment (HIA), creating 8 different scenarios on the replacement of short and long car trips, by public transport or/and bike. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality and change in life expectancy related to two different assessments: A) the exposure of travellers to physical activity, air pollution to particulate matter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5), and road traffic fatality; and B) the exposure of general population to PM2.5, modelling by Barcelona Air-Dispersion Model. The secondary outcome was a change in emissions of carbon dioxide.ResultsThe annual health impact of a shift of 40% of the car trips, starting and ending in Barcelona City, to cycling (n = 141,690) would be for the travellers who shift modes 1.15 additional deaths from air pollution, 0.17 additional deaths from road traffic fatality and 67.46 deaths avoided from physical activity resulting in a total of 66.12 deaths avoided. Fewer deaths would be avoided annually if half of the replaced trips were shifted to public transport (43.76 deaths). The annual health impact in the Barcelona City general population (n = 1,630,494) of the 40% reduction in car trips would be 10.03 deaths avoided due to the reduction of 0.64% in exposure to PM2.5. The deaths (including travellers and general population) avoided in Barcelona City therefore would be 76.15 annually. Further health benefits would be obtained with a shift of 40% of the car trips from the Greater Barcelona Metropolitan which either start or end in Barcelona City to public transport (40.15 deaths avoided) or public transport and cycling (98.50 deaths avoided).The carbon dioxide reduction for shifting from car to other modes of transport (bike and public transport) in Barcelona metropolitan area was estimated to be 203,251 t/CO₂ emissions per year.ConclusionsInterventions to reduce car use and increase cycling and the use of public transport in metropolitan areas, like Barcelona, can produce health benefits for travellers and for the general population of the city. Also these interventions help to reduce green house gas emissions.     

Machine learning for toxicity characterization of organic chemical emissions using USEtox database: Learning the structure of the input space

Toxicity characterization of chemical emissions in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a complex task which usually proceeds via multimedia (fate, exposure and effect) models attached to models of dose–response relationships to assess the effects on target. Different models and approaches do exist, but all require a vast amount of data on the properties of the chemical compounds being assessed, which are hard to collect or hardly publicly available (especially for thousands of less common or newly developed chemicals), therefore hampering in practice the assessment in LCA. An example is USEtox, a consensual model for the characterization of human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity. This paper places itself in a line of research aiming at providing a methodology to reduce the number of input parameters necessary to run multimedia fate models, focusing in particular to the application of the USEtox toxicity model. By focusing on USEtox, in this paper two main goals are pursued: 1) performing an extensive exploratory analysis (using dimensionality reduction techniques) of the input space constituted by the substance-specific properties at the aim of detecting particular patterns in the data manifold and estimating the dimension of the subspace in which the data manifold actually lies; and 2) exploring the application of a set of linear models, based on partial least squares (PLS) regression, as well as a nonlinear model (general regression neural network — GRNN) in the seek for an automatic selection strategy of the most informative variables according to the modelled output (USEtox factor). After extensive analysis, the intrinsic dimension of the input manifold has been identified between three and four. The variables selected as most informative may vary according to the output modelled and the model used, but for the toxicity factors modelled in this paper the input variables selected as most informative are coherent with prior expectations based on scientific knowledge of toxicity factors modelling. Thus the outcomes of the analysis are promising for the future application of the approach to other portions of the model, affected by important data gaps, e.g., to the calculation of human health effect factors.     

蒲河流域生态环境需水研究

以蒲河流域为例,以改善水环境为出发点,提出了一种以生态分区为前提,同时满足人类正常生产活动的生态环境需水估算模型。该模型从生态系统角度分析了蒲河流域现阶段存在的问题,比简单的水文模型更为符合蒲河流域的实际特点。在此基础上对蒲河流域进行生态分区,针对各生态分区对生态需水的需求不同,分别估算需水值。其中包括河道基本生态需水、河道蒸发需水,河道渗漏需水等。在考虑生态需求的同时,针对蒲河季节性河流且人工干扰严重的特点,对蒲河流域生态需水量值进行估算。计算结果表明,蒲河流域生态需水总量为4 53846万m³,并具有年内变化显著、受人类活动（污水排放量、人口密度等）影响各分区差距显著等特点,研究成果为今后季节性河流需水量的研究提供了依据     

Applying radioecology in a world of multiple contaminants

This paper presents a review of the current status of radioecology and how it might be applied to contribute to a broader range of environmental pollution and contamination problems. In many respects radioecology is a unique and specialised branch of environmental science. However, radioecologists could be much more aware of the similarities and differences between their field and other fields of environmental pollution science. Areas of common interest described herein are exposure and risk assessment, and the problem of the bioavailability of potentially toxic substances in environmental media. It is concluded that radiometric methods and radioecological modelling methods can assist significantly with understanding and quantifying both these issues. The existence of multiple contaminants at many locations around the world dictates that assessment and remediation exercises should be carried out in an integrated fashion, as a partnership between scientific disciplines.     

Sustainable supply chain network design: a multicriteria perspective

In this paper, we develop a rigorous modelling and analytical framework for the design of sustainable supply chain networks. We consider a firm that is engaged in determining the capacities of its various supply chain activities, i.e. the manufacturing, storage and distribution of the product to the demand locations. The firm is faced with both capital costs associated with constructing the link capacities and the links' operational costs. Moreover, the firm is aware of the emissions generated associated with the alternative manufacturing plants, storage facilities and modes of transportation/shipment, which may have different levels of emissions due, for example, to distinct technologies of, respectively, production, storage and transportation. The firm is assumed to be a multicriteria decision-maker who seeks to not only minimise the total costs associated with design/construction and operation, but also to minimise the emissions generated, with an appropriate weight, which reflects the price of the emissions, associated with the various supply chain network activities. We provide both the network optimisation modelling framework and an algorithm, which is then applied to compute solutions to a spectrum of numerical sustainable supply chain design examples in order to illustrate our approach.     

Personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field measurements in the Netherlands: Exposure level and variability for everyday activities,times of day and types of area

Knowledge of the exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields is necessary for epidemiological studies on possible health effects. The main goal of this study is to determine the exposure level and spatial and temporal variances during 39 everyday activities in 12 frequency bands used in mobile telecommunication and broadcasting. Therefore, 24 h measurements were gathered from 98 volunteers living in or near Amsterdam and Purmerend, The Netherlands. They carried an activity diary to be kept to the minute, a GPS logger sampling at an interval of 1 s, and an EME Spy exposimeter with a detection limit of 0.0066 mW/m² sampling at an interval of 10 s in 12 frequency bands. The mean exposure over 24 h, excluding own mobile phone use, was 0.180 mW/m². During daytime exposure was about the same, but during night it was about half, and in the evening it was about twice as high. The main contribution to environmental exposure (calling by participant not included) is from calling with mobile phones (37.5%), from cordless DECT phones and their docking stations (31.7%), and from the base stations (12.7%). The exposure to mobile phone base stations increases with the percentage of urban ground use, which is an indication for high people density. In agreement, the highest mean exposure relates to the activities with high people density, such as travelling by public transport, visiting social events, pubs or shopping malls. Exposure at home depends mainly on exposure from people calling in the neighbourhood of the participant and thus on the number of persons in a household. In addition just the possession of DECT docking stations leads to exposure as most models transmit continuously in stand-by. Also wireless internet routers continuously transmit in the WiFi band. Though the highest exposure peaks in the WiFi band, up to 0.265 W/m², come from stray radiation of microwave ovens. The mean total exposure largely depends on phone calls of a high exposure level and short duration. These calls lead to potentially high contrasts as well in exposure levels between sessions of the same activity as between persons, thus posing a challenge for personal exposure prediction.     

Interaction between electrostatics and fluid dynamics in electrostatic precipitators

Significant effort has been devoted by past researchers in electrostatic precipitators to electrostatics and particle chemistry. Relatively little, however, has been published on the effect of turbulent flow and its interaction with electrostatics and particle dynamics. This paper describes an experiment and a fundamental model which is focused on the coupled effects of the fluid dynamics and electrostatics.A laboratory precipitator flow facility with laser beam illumination was used to visualize smoke flow. Detailed photographs of flow patterns with and without electric field were recorded in a horizontal plane through the precipitator.A theoretical model was used to numerically simulate the observed flow patterns in the experiment. In the model the flow was described by time-averaged mass and momentum equations with a two-equation turbulence model. The electric field was described by Maxwell electrostatic equation and the continuity of the current equation. The system of the coupled partial differential equations was solved by a finite difference scheme.The interaction between fluid dynamics and electrostatics is shown to have a significant role in altering the flow in the precipitator. The practical implication is that the interaction will aid in particle migration in some regions, but it will increase reentrainment and reduce particle migration in others. Comparison between the results from the experiment and numerical computations shows good qualitative agreement between the two. Since both the electrostatic and the fluid dynamic flow fields depend on the electrode geometry, further investigation may lead to improved design of precipitators.     

Modelling remediation options for urban contamination situations

The impact on a population from an event resulting in dispersal and deposition of radionuclides in an urban area could be significant, in terms of both the number of people affected and the economic costs of recovery. The use of computer models for assessment of urban contamination situations and remedial options enables the evaluation of a variety of situations or alternative recovery strategies in contexts of preparedness or decision-making. At present a number of models and modelling approaches are available for different purposes. This paper summarizes the available modelling approaches, approaches for modelling countermeasure effectiveness, and current sources of information on parameters related to countermeasure effectiveness. Countermeasure information must be applied with careful thought as to its applicability for the specific situation being modelled. Much of the current information base comes from the Chernobyl experience and would not be applicable for all types of situations.     

Assessment, validation and intercomparison of operational models for predicting tritium migration from routine discharges of nuclear power plants: the case of Loire River

During last decades, a number of projects have been launched to validate models for predicting the behaviour of radioactive substances in the environment. The project of the "Aquatic" working group of the project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was based on the validation and assessment of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystems. The present paper describes a blind test of models aimed at assessing the dispersion of tritium releases in the Loire River (France), on a large domain ( approximately 350km) and on a period of six months, by comparing the results obtained by operational-to-experimental values of tritium concentration at Angers, a city along the Loire River. The common conclusion is that the models used by the different participants namely 1D models and models based on a schematic hydraulic (box models) are reliable tools for tritium transport modelling. Nevertheless, the importance of proper and detailed hydrological data for the appropriate prediction of pollutant migration in water is demonstrated by the example provided during this study.     

Intercomparison of model predictions of tritium concentrations in soil and foods following acute airborne HTO exposure

This paper describes the results of a model intercomparision exercise for predicting tritium transport through foodchains. Modellers were asked to assume that farmland was exposed for one hour to an average concentration in air of 10⁴ MBq tritium m^-3. They were given the initial soil moisture content and 30 days of hourly averaged historical weather and asked to predict HTO and OBT concentrations in foods at selected times up to 30 days later when crops were assumed to be harvested. Two fumigations were postulated, one at 10.00 h (i.e., in day-light), and the other at 24.00 h (i.e., in darkness).Predicted environmental media concentrations after the daytime exposure agreed within an order of magnitude in most cases. Important sources of differences were variations in choices of numerical values for transport parameters. The different depths of soil layers used in the models appeared to make important contributions to differences in predictions for the given scenario. Following the night-time exposure, however, greater differences in predicted concentrations appeared. These arose largely because of different ways key processes were assumed to be affected by darkness. Uptake of HTO by vegetation and the rate it is converted to OBT were prominent amongst these processes. Further research, experimental data and modelling intercomparisons are required to resolve some of these issues.