Agricultural landscape change and stability in northeast Thailand: historical patch-level analysis

The temporal nature of agricultural landscape change, where both intra- and inter-annual processes and changes are often at work, renders traditional methods of landscape change assessment not completely effective. Additionally, seasonal and longer-term shifting patterns of cultivation can sometimes appear as permanent landscape change when in fact they actually are simply a local change in spatial arrangement. To address these complexities, this work tests an approach that is longitudinal in character and based upon assessing the structure of landscape change as well as the landuse/landcover (LULC) change. Set in rural northeast Thailand, patch dynamics are examined through use of LULC change trajectories built from an image time series and temporal patterns built from pattern metrics. The given unit of observation is the pixel, and its “life history” is constituted by the values derived from the images of a satellite time series, which are then reconstituted at the patch level for better ecological interpretation. The hypothesis that underpins this approach is that the nature of the trajectory is associated with the function of the land in that patch and in the neighborhood of surrounding patches. Hence, different trajectories of LULC spatial arrangement may suggest, for example, differences in the stability or dynamics of LULC over time and space, which are further suggestive of land sustainability or resilience, or conversely land conversion or dynamism. The study area for this research is a marginalized, agrarian environment in northeast Thailand, a region that has undergone deforestation of upland forests for the cultivation of commercial field crops, intensification of lowland rice for subsistence as well as local and regional sales and global export, and LULC scenarios altering the savanna landscape that serves as the background matrix. The analysis here characterizes the relative stability and temporal dynamics of LULC at the patch level. Pattern metrics calculated at the patch level are assessed as the spatial organization of landscape units that represent: (1) transitional areas of LULC dynamics occurring as peripheral expansion, (2) LULC change from forest to agriculture through deforestation, or (3) agriculture to forest through secondary plant succession, with savanna serving as a transitional matrix. In short, this paper proposes and tests a method for assessing the temporal persistence of LULC through pattern metrics. The method contributes a technique for analyzing the landscape ecology of sites as a function of their stability/dynamics within a scale-explicit context, and contributes to the growing body of work on relating scale, pattern, and process.     

Potential carbon sequestration in China’s forests

Forests are believed to be a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. There are 158.94 million hectares (Mha) of forests in China, accounting for 16.5% of its land area. These extensive forests may play a vital role in the global carbon (C) cycle as well as making a large contribution to the country’s economic and environmental well-being. Currently there is a trend towards increased development in the forests. Hence, accounting for the role and potential of the forests in the global carbon budget is very important.In this paper, we attempt to estimate the carbon emissions and sequestration by Chinese forests in 1990 and make projections for the following 60 years based on three scenarios, i.e. “baseline”, “trend” and “planning”. A computer model F-CARBON 1.0, which takes into account the different biomass density and growth rates for the forests in different age classes, the life time for biomass oxidation and decomposition, and the change in soil carbon between harvesting and reforestation, was developed by the authors and used to make the calculations and projections. Climate change is not modelled in this exercise.We calculate that forests in China annually accumulate 118.1 Mt C in growth of trees and 18.4 Mt in forest soils, and release 38.9 Mt, resulting in a net sequestration of 97.6 Mt C, corresponding to 16.8% of the national CO₂ emissions in 1990. From 1990 to 2050, soil carbon accumulation was projected to increase slightly while carbon emissions increases by 73, 77 and 84%, and net carbon sequestration increases by −21, 52 and 90% for baseline, trend and planning scenarios, respectively. Carbon sequestration by China’s forests under the planning scenario in 2000, 2010, 2030 and 2050 is approximately 20, 48, 111 and 142% higher than projected by the baseline scenario, and 8, 18, 34 and 26% higher than by the trend scenario, respectively. Over 9 Gt C is projected to accumulate in China’s forests from 1990 to 2050 under the planning scenario, and this is 73 and 23% larger than projected for the baseline and trend scenarios, respectively. During the period 2008–2012, Chinese forests are likely to have a net uptake of 667, 565 and 452 Mt C, respectively, for the planning, trend and baseline scenarios. We conclude that China’s forests have a large potential for carbon sequestration through forest development. Sensitivity analysis showed that the biggest uncertainty in the projection by the F-CARBON model came from the release coefficient of soil carbon between periods after harvesting and before reforestation.     

土地生态安全二维预警模型构建及应用——以临湘市为例

引入生态可持续性指数,在风险矩阵的框架下与土地生态安全指数相结合,构建了土地生态安全二维预警模型,并应用于临湘市土地生态安全预警.研究表明:土地生态安全指数逐年上升,土地生态系统自身稳定性及其对社会经济发展的支撑能力不断提高;生态可持续性指数逐年下降,土地生态系统对社会经济发展的支撑能力的可持续性逐渐减弱,如不采取相应措施,未来将难以避免跌入不可持续状态;2005~2019年土地生态安全警情呈“中警-轻警-中警-轻警”的波折变化,最终稳定为轻警,预测2020~2025年将延续轻警,跌入重警的可能性较小,但仍存在跌回中警的风险.临湘市应通过发展生态友好型产业､加大环保投入､有序扩张第二产业和建设用地､节制消费和应用新技术提高生产力等措施,综合改善土地生态安全状况.研究认为二维预警模型可有效避免传统模型预警失真的问题,有利于提高土地生态安全预警结果的全面性､前瞻性和合理性.     

基于Logistic的辽河口湿地景观格局变化驱动力分析

文章以辽河口湿地景观格局为例,考虑湿地景观格局变化过程的空间变量,建立了不同湿地景观格局变化过程的二元Logistic回归模型。模拟结果表明:模型中转为建筑用地的主要解释变量是城镇人口变化率;转为芦苇地的主要解释变量是农村人口变化率和过境水资源变化率;转为水稻田的主要解释变量是农村人口变化率;转为养殖池的主要解释变量是第一产值变化率和农村人口变化率。空间异质性和湿地景观格局变化过程的时间变量共同影响着使用二元Logistic回归模型来解释湿地景观格局变化驱动力的能力;通过对各个模型的二元Logistic回归模型进行检验,得出空间统计模型能较好地揭示不同湿地景观格局变化过程的主要驱动力及其作用机理。     

Spatial and temporal land use and carbon stock changes in Uganda: implications for a future REDD strategy

Using a map overlay procedure in a Geographical Information System environment, we quantify and map major land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns in Uganda period 1990–2005 and determine whether the transitions were random or systematic. The analysis reveals that the most dominant systematic land use change processes were deforestation (woodland to subsistence farmland—3.32%); forest degradation (woodland to bushland (4.01%) and grassland (4.08%) and bush/grassland conversion to cropland (5.5%) all resulting in a net reduction in forests (6.1%). Applying an inductive approach based on logistic regression and trend analyses of observed changes we analyzed key drivers of LULC change. Significant predictors of forest land use change included protection status, market access, poverty, slope, soil quality and presence/absence of a stream network. Market access, poverty and population all decreased the log odds of retaining forests. In addition, poverty also increased the likelihood of degradation. An increase in slope decreased the likelihood of deforestation. Using the stock change and gain/loss approaches we estimated the change in forest carbon stocks and emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Results indicate a negligible increase in forest carbon stocks (3,260 t C yr-1) in the period 1990–2005 when compared to the emissions due to deforestation and forest degradation (2.67 million t C yr-1). In light of the dominant forest land use change patterns, the drivers and change in carbon stocks, we discuss options which could be pursued to implement a future national REDD plus strategy which considers livelihood, biodiversity and climate change mitigation objectives.     

Effects of bioenergy policies and targets on European wetland restoration options

The EU is committed to combat climate change and to increase security of its energy supply. Bioenergy from forestry and agriculture plays a key role for both. Concurrently, the EU agreed to halt the loss of biodiversity within its member states. To fulfil the biodiversity target more nature conservation and restoration sites need to be designated. There are arising concerns that an increased cultivation of bioenergy crops will decrease the land available for nature reserves and for “traditional” agriculture and forestry. To assess the role of bioenergy in light of possible negative impacts on ecosystems, the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM) assesses simultaneously economic and environmental aspects of land use. This study contributes to the assessment by analyzing the effect of bioenergy production on European wetland allocations by incorporating the spatial wetland distribution model SWEDI into EUFASOM. Results show that bioenergy targets increase land competition and thus marginal costs of wetland preservation but also of food prices. The designation of national wetland conservation targets, on the other hand, stimulates land use intensification in countries without these targets and here only a transfer of environmental stresses takes place. The model is able to illustrate regional differences of results.     

广东省土地覆盖变化对植被净初级生产力的影响分析

理解土地利用/覆盖变化对植被净初级生产力（Net Primary Productivity,NPP）的影响对于全球碳循环和粮食安全具有重要意义。论文采用优化的CASA（Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach）模型估算广东省2000、2005和2010年NPP,分析NPP的空间格局和土地覆盖的时空动态,研究土地覆盖变化对NPP的影响。结果表明：1）广东省NPP空间分布不均,形成一系列高值区和低值区;总体上是粤中区最高,珠三角区最低。2）2000—2010年广东省土地覆盖变化程度增强,城市用地和耕地变化最大,主要集中在珠三角区和粤中区。3）在气候变化条件下,以城市扩张为主导的广东省土地覆盖类型变化整体上造成NPP的损失,损失量主要来自林地和耕地向低生产力土地覆盖类型的转换,尤其是被城市用地占用;不同生态区NPP损失差异显著,珠三角区和粤中区NPP损失较为严重;2005—2010年珠三角区NPP损失量有所降低,其他生态区均有所增加,体现了城市扩张对NPP影响的复杂性。     

Cluster analysis: A technique for estimating the synoptic meteorological controls on air and precipitation chemistry—Method and applications

Combining the pattern recognition capabilities of cluster analysis with isobaric air trajectory data is a useful way of quantifying the influence of synoptic meteorology on the pollution climatology at a site. A non-hierarchial clustering of 1000 mb isobaric trajectories, using squared Euclidean distance as a similarity measure, leads to the identification of a finite number of distinct synoptic patterns. Typical airbore and aqueous pollutant concentrations associated with each of these patterns may then be established. By considering 3-day air trajectories in this study, the “history” of an air parcel is captured in an improved manner, when compared with attempts to use individual day weather “types” to characterize meterological situations.     

Evaluation of British Columbia Ministry of Forests aboriginal rights and title-consultation guidelines — the Ditidaht case study

The British Columbia Ministry of Forests’ “Aboriginal Rights and Title — Consultation Guidelines”, prepared in response to a Supreme Court of Canada decision on aboriginal rights and title, presents an interesting example of how common law influences provincial environmental policy. The policy addresses the British Columbia government’s fiduciary duty to First Nations and requires staff to consult with aboriginals during operational forestry planning. Adequate understanding of the policy is essential for lawful forest management. The Consultation Guidelines have become a key environmental policy in British Columbia.This evaluation will increase understanding of the Consultation Guidelines and aboriginal title for forest practitioners and policy makers. Within the context of a Vancouver Island case study, the policy is analyzed in view of the following criteria: effectiveness, efficiency, equity, and effort. Even though the policy is over 2 years old and the government is actively managing forests in an area under negotiation for treaty, the policy has yet to be implemented. As a result, aboriginal concerns about the long-term environmental and economic sustainability of current forest practices go unheeded. This situation potentially jeopardizes the government’s ability to address its fiduciary responsibilities to aboriginals, as defined in case law and the Canadian Constitution.     

Landscape ecological aspects of agro-ecosystems

This paper is concerned with landscape ecology and its relevánce for both agriculture and the relation of agro-ecosystems to the total landscape. The term “landscape ecology” is not commonly used in agriculture, although subordinate concepts are often used, for example, the principle of soil and land suitability for agricultural development, the spatial arrangement of agricultural land and the processes operating within the landscape of agro-ecosystems. Giving more importance to landscape ecological aspects in agro-ecosystems could lead to better environmental management.     

陆海统筹视角下茂名市海岸带生态安全格局规划研究

作为国土空间规划的三大战略格局之一,生态安全格局是海岸带地区生态安全的重要保障。本研究遵循“陆海统筹、生态优先”的理念,基于“本底分析-要素识别-格局构建”的总体思路,采用陆海生态敏感性评价、最小累积阻力模型、“源地-廊道-节点”模型等分析方法,规划构建了茂名市海岸带的生态安全格局。结果表明：(1)研究区的海岸侵蚀和特殊生境以不敏感为主,一般生境以轻度敏感为主,水土流失、风暴潮、赤潮、海岸带利用以中度敏感为主,社会经济以高度敏感为主;(2)研究区生态敏感性总体较高,陆海复合系统的综合敏感性指数由陆地向海洋呈现“减小-增加-减小”的空间变化规律;(3)本研究共提取出生态源地21块,面积116.78 km²;识别出生态廊道35条、生态节点24个,分别呈“一横五纵三环”“陆多海少、南多北少”的空间分布格局;(4)本研究构建出“一带、三湾、五廊、多点”的区域生态安全格局,在此基础上提出规划指引,以期为茂名市海岸带的生态文明建设提供科学指导。     

中国沿海不同区位经济园区空间扩张特征研究

我国沿海地区是土地资源供需矛盾最突出的区域,经济园区超前、超大规划空间规模,加剧了城市的土地矛盾,为解决沿海经济园区合理规划空间扩张的问题,论文以16个沿海经济园区为样本,根据其与城市的区位关系划分为远离城市型、城市边缘型、城市内部型三类园区,分别就三类园区扩张的空间特征及其经济特征进行研究。结果表明：就目前我国经济发展环境及土地政策下,园区发展25 a,最大扩张规模不超过60 km²,园区扩张节奏与经济发展阶段有关,园区建设初期以及“二次创业”阶段是园区扩张的高峰期;不同区位的园区扩张方向与形态存在差异,远离城市型园区扩张形态为多方向扩张与沿交通线路扩张相结合,城市边缘型园区可由宽幅扇形扩张到半圆形,城市内部型园区为内生式与窄小扇形外延式扩张相结合。远离城市的经济园区,空间扩张所需的投资更高,但其为经济发展保证了更大的发展空间,经济产出也相对较高。因此沿海各地规划建设园区时,应结合当地资本实力、园区布局区位、园区所处发展阶段等,合理规划园区扩张规模与扩张节奏。     

上海市城市化进程中热环境响应的空间评价

利用Landsat TM/ETM+ 遥感数据解译与反演得到上海市1997~2009年的土地利用/覆盖类型图及热岛强度分布图,并分析其演变趋势,引入温度-植被指数(TVX)并采用TVX空间法定量研究了以建设用地扩张、生态用地减少为特点的城市化过程引起的热环境效应.研究表明,1997~2009年,上海市人口呈现从中心城至郊区的流动趋势;热岛强度分布与城市化建设密切相关,呈现“葫芦串-葡萄串-摊大饼型”的蔓延模式;以牺牲生态用地为代价的建设用地扩张造成研究区域地表温度的上升及植被覆盖度的下降,其中林地减少所引起的热环境效应最大.研究可为城市规划决策过程中不同城市化空间的拓展情景提供其可能的环境响应结果,从而完善气候变化适应性对策,推进城市生态系统的可持续发展.     

Partnerships in creating agile sustainable development communities

The key to clean, renewable and healthy futures for society(s) can be seen in the need to consider how all infrastructure areas such as water, waste and transportation, energy are treated. And to focus attention on the emerging commercial technologies (such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) that will be available regionally and then globally within the next five to ten years. Planning and investing now for that future will prove to be prudent and cost effective. Public-private partnerships, known as “civic markets“ can create and provide “funds” such as public bonds along with private sector innovation and markets on the regional, state and national levels. Similar bond funds have been passed by the electorate in California, most recently for stem cell research (USA$3 billion). Public support to promote funding for sustainable communities has also been demonstrated with bond funds for water, forests and land preservation.“Agile energy systems” are flexible and adapt to change effectively and efficiently for economic, environmental and social benefits, the triple bottom line. However, there needs to be collaboration between the pubic and private sectors in creating them. Such civic markets can from new associations of communities, cities and nation-states that might be useful to plan public policies and create the “government market“ in terms of procurement and coordination of public resources for renewable energy on-site and central grid power generation. One suggestion is to form an “Association of Agile Energy Cities or communities.”     

中国农牧交错区土地利用变化空间格局与驱动力分析

以遥感与GIS为技术支撑,运用专家知识,结合实际,从农牧交错区的实质出发,定量地计算出我国的农牧交错区。在此基础上,分析我国农牧交错区近10年的耕地、草地变化的空间格局。整个农牧交错区的耕地以变林地、草地为主。耕地的变化以内蒙古的变化为大,主要分布于它的中、东部地区。草地主要以变耕地、城镇为主,分布于内蒙古与东北三省接壤处。最后探讨这种格局的成因。耕地变化受经济发展、人口增加、农业结构等驱动,主要表现为人文作用。草地变化受人为与自然的驱动,主要为人类活动的影响,表现为经济发展与草地过牧。     

基于经济发展阶段理论的土地利用变化研究——以广西江州区为例

土地利用在不同的经济发展阶段表现出不同特点。广西江州区属于我国西部经济欠发达地区,经济发展正处于工业化初期的起步阶段,土地利用变化特点主要表现为:以农业生产用地和生态用地竞争为主,耕地变化是土地利用变化的主要内容;建设用地低效、缓慢增长,农村居民点增长面积占较大比重;人均农村居民点面积逐渐增加。以1978-2002年的统计数据为基础,用主成分分析和回归分析相结合,对耕地面积变化的驱动力进行了研究,结果表明:人口增长、经济发展和土地管理使得耕地面积不断增长,收入和消费的提高以及农业产业结构调整导致耕地面积减少。发达地区的发展历程表明,经济高速发展必然引起农地快速非农化,江州区在土地利用中,必须注意节约用地,保护耕地,减少土地资源浪费,防止环境污染,实现区域土地的可持续利用。     

Considering agro-ecosystems as ecological funds for collective design: New perspectives for environmental policy

Enhancing agro-ecosystem sustainability raises difficult challenges for environmental policy: it requires both increasing knowledge on these complex systems to design effective solutions and coordinating stakeholders with diverging interests. However, most existing environmental policies consider ecosystems’ desirable properties as given, leading ecosystem managers to favor “turnkey” solutions. How could public policy better support local collective initiatives aiming at reconciling agriculture and the environment? This paper presents an empirical case study from western France, in which a partnership between an agricultural cooperative and an ecological research center resulted in a collective design initiative. We conceptually model this initiative drawing upon recent design theories and Georgescu-Roegen’s ‘fund-flow’ model, defining ‘ecological funds’ as the starting point of a collective design process. The results highlight the importance of developing policy instruments that can better support local innovation processes through greater democratization. Adopting a design approach to sustainable agricultural landscape management could be particularly fruitful in situations where collective action is necessary but where there is no common good recognized as such, and no existing community identified.     

Environmental, land-use and economic implications of Brazilian sugarcane expansion 1996–2006

Governments are promoting biofuels and the resulting changes in land use and crop reallocation to biofuels production have raised concerns about impacts on environment and food security. The promotion of biofuels has also been questioned based on suggested marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, partly due to induced land use change causing greenhouse gas emissions. This study reports how the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil during 1996–2006 affected indicators for environment, land use and economy. The results indicate that sugarcane expansion did not in general contribute to direct deforestation in the traditional agricultural region where most of the expansion took place. The amount of forests on farmland in this area is below the minimum stated in law and the situation did not change over the studied period. Sugarcane expansion resulted in a significant reduction of pastures and cattle heads and higher economic growth than in neighboring areas. It could not be established to what extent the discontinuation of cattle production induced expansion of pastures in other areas, possibly leading to indirect deforestation. However, the results indicate that a possible migration of the cattle production reached further than the neighboring of expansion regions. Occurring at much smaller rates, expansion of sugarcane in regions such as the Amazon and the Northeast region was related to direct deforestation and competition with food crops, and appear not to have induced economic growth. These regions are not expected to experience substantial increases of sugarcane in the near future, but mitigating measures are warranted.     

青藏高原土地开发潜力与对策

青藏高原土地辽阔 ,地势高寒 ,农林牧各类土地资源的质量与数量很不平衡 ,开发潜力不一。提高现有耕地的单产水平 ;加强草场建设 ,提高畜产商品率 ;禁伐和保护天然林,积极发展经济果木与林下资源的生产 ,乃是高原土地合理开发 ,农业持续发展的重要对策     

Amphimixis and the individual in evolving populations: does Weismann’s Doctrine apply to all,most or a few organisms?

The German biologist August Weismann (1834–1914) proposed that amphimixis (sexual reproduction) creates variability for natural selection to act upon, and hence he became one of the founders of the Neo-Darwinian theory of biological evolution. He is perhaps best known for what is called “Weismann’s Doctrine” or “Weismann’s Barrier” (i.e. the irreversible separation of somatic and germ cell functionalities early during ontogeny in multicellular organisms). This concept provided an unassailable argument against “soft inheritance” sensu Lamarck and informed subsequent theorists that the only “individual” in the context of evolution is the mature, reproductive organism. Herein, we review representative model organisms whose embryology conforms to Weismann’s Doctrine (e.g. flies and mammals) and those that do not (e.g. freshwater hydroids and plants) based on this survey and the Five Kingdoms of Life scheme; we point out that most species (notably bacteria, fungi, protists and plants) are “non-Weismannian” in ways that make a canonical definition of the “individual” problematic if not impossible. We also review critical life history functional traits that allow us to create a matrix of all theoretically conceivable life cycles (for eukaryotic algae, embryophytes, fungi and animals), which permits us to establish where this scheme Weismann’s Doctrine holds true and where it does not. In addition, we argue that bacteria, the dominant organisms of the biosphere, exist in super-cellular biofilms but rarely as single (planktonic) microbes. Our analysis attempts to show that competition among genomic variants in cell lineages played a critical part in the evolution of multicellularity and life cycle diversity. This feature was largely ignored during the formulation of the synthetic theory of biological evolution and its subsequent elaborations.