Water Footprint of 65 Mid‐ to Large‐Sized U.S. Cities and Their Metropolitan Areas

Conventional indicators of water use for urban areas account primarily for direct water use. In contrast, our objective here is to employ the water footprint (WF) concept and methodology to include the virtual or indirect water use to assess the production‐side and consumption‐side WF of 65 United States (U.S.) cities. The 65 cities include the largest metropolitan areas and some of the major mid‐sized cities in the U.S. We use metropolitan areas to define our city boundaries as this is the native spatial resolution of the main datasets used. To estimate the urban WFs, we integrated large and disparate datasets, including commodity flow (agricultural, livestock, and industrial commodities), water use, and socioeconomic data. By analyzing the estimated WF values, we found indirect water use accounts on average for 66% of the WF of consumption. We found some cities are net virtual water exporters (11 of 65) because they rely heavily on direct water uses or are heavy producers of industrial commodities. Also, WF patterns vary widely across the U.S. but regional patterns seem to emerge. For example, the dense cities of the U.S. northeast megaregion have a significantly low per capita WF relative to the other cities, while cities in the Gulf Coast megaregion have a significantly higher industrial WF of production and consumption. Furthermore, there is inequality in the WF of consumption where a few cities account for a disproportionate share of the total U.S. urban water uses.     

Operational Evapotranspiration Mapping Using Remote Sensing and Weather Datasets: A New Parameterization for the SSEB Approach

The increasing availability of multi‐scale remotely sensed data and global weather datasets is allowing the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) at multiple scales. We present a simple but robust method that uses remotely sensed thermal data and model‐assimilated weather fields to produce ET for the contiguous United States (CONUS) at monthly and seasonal time scales. The method is based on the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) model, which is now parameterized for operational applications, renamed as SSEBop. The innovative aspect of the SSEBop is that it uses predefined boundary conditions that are unique to each pixel for the “hot” and “cold” reference conditions. The SSEBop model was used for computing ET for 12 years (2000‐2011) using the MODIS and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data streams. SSEBop ET results compared reasonably well with monthly eddy covariance ET data explaining 64% of the observed variability across diverse ecosystems in the CONUS during 2005. Twelve annual ET anomalies (2000‐2011) depicted the spatial extent and severity of the commonly known drought years in the CONUS. More research is required to improve the representation of the predefined boundary conditions in complex terrain at small spatial scales. SSEBop model was found to be a promising approach to conduct water use studies in the CONUS, with a similar opportunity in other parts of the world. The approach can also be applied with other thermal sensors such as Landsat.     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER‐BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly water‐balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil‐moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R‐square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long‐term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low‐flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R‐square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.     

The Water‐Year Water Balance of the Colorado River Basin

Model‐estimated monthly water balance components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff (R)) for 146 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the CRB water balance for water years 1901 through 2014 (a water year is the period from October 1 of one year through September 30 of the following year). Results indicate that the CRB can be divided into six subregions with similar temporal variability in monthly R. The water balance analyses indicated that approximately 75% of total water‐year R is generated by just one CRB subregion and that most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water generated during the months of October through April. Furthermore, the analyses show that temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the northwestern conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the southeastern CONUS. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the North Pacific Ocean into the CRB, particularly the Upper CRB. Additionally, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods in the CRB appears to be related to variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

Water balance characterization of the early 21st century drought in the western United States

Monthly temperature and precipitation data for 923 United States Geological Survey 8-digit hydrologic units are used as inputs to a monthly water balance model to compute monthly actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture storage, and runoff across the western United States (U.S.) for the period 1900 through 2020. Time series of these water balance variables are examined to characterize and explain the dry conditions across the western U.S. since the year 2000. Results indicate that although precipitation deficits account for most of the changes in actual evapotranspiration and runoff, increases in temperature primarily explain decreases in soil moisture storage. Specifically, temperature has been particularly impactful on the magnitude of negative departures of soil moisture storage during the spring (April through June) and summer (July through September) seasons. These effects on soil moisture may be particularly detrimental to agriculture in regions already stressed by drought such as the western U.S.     

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Simulated Evapotranspiration and Streamflow over Texas Using the WRF‐Hydro‐RAPID Modeling Framework

This study assesses a large‐scale hydrologic modeling framework (WRF‐Hydro‐RAPID) in terms of its high‐resolution simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow over Texas (drainage area: 464,135 km²). The reference observations used include eight‐day ET data from MODIS and FLUXNET, and daily river discharge data from 271 U.S. Geological Survey gauges located across a climate gradient. A recursive digital filter is applied to decompose the river discharge into surface runoff and base flow for comparison with the model counterparts. While the routing component of the model is pre‐calibrated, the land component is uncalibrated. Results show the model performance for ET and runoff is aridity‐dependent. ET is better predicted in a wet year than in a dry year. Streamflow is better predicted in wet regions with the highest efficiency ~0.7. In comparison, streamflow is most poorly predicted in dry regions with a large positive bias. Modeled ET bias is more strongly correlated with the base flow bias than surface runoff bias. These results complement previous evaluations by incorporating more spatial details. They also help identify potential processes for future model improvements. Indeed, improving the dry region streamflow simulation would require synergistic enhancements of ET, soil moisture and groundwater parameterizations in the current model configuration. Our assessments are important preliminary steps towards accurate large‐scale hydrologic forecasts.     

Water Supply and Stormwater Management Benefits of Residential Rainwater Harvesting in U.S. Cities

This article presents an analysis of the projected performance of urban residential rainwater harvesting systems in the United States (U.S.). The objectives are to quantify for 23 cities in seven climatic regions (1) water supply provided from rainwater harvested at a residential parcel and (2) stormwater runoff reduction from a residential drainage catchment. Water‐saving efficiency is determined using a water‐balance approach applied at a daily time step for a range of rainwater cistern sizes. The results show that performance is a function of cistern size and climatic pattern. A single rain barrel (190 l [50 gal]) installed at a residential parcel is able to provide approximately 50% water‐saving efficiency for the nonpotable indoor water demand scenario in cities of the East Coast, Southeast, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest, but <30% water‐saving efficiency in cities of the Mountain West, Southwest, and most of California. Stormwater management benefits are quantified using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model. The results indicate that rainwater harvesting can reduce stormwater runoff volume up to 20% in semiarid regions, and less in regions receiving greater rainfall amounts for a long‐term simulation. Overall, the results suggest that U.S. cities and individual residents can benefit from implementing rainwater harvesting as a stormwater control measure and as an alternative source of water.     

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid‐21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid‐21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid‐21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30‐40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.     

CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

Dry Weather Water Quality Loadings in Arid,Urban Watersheds of the Los Angeles Basin,California, USA1

Abstract: Dry weather runoff in arid, urban watersheds may consist entirely of treated wastewater effluent and/or urban nonpoint source runoff, which can be a source of bacteria, nutrients, and metals to receiving waters. Most studies of urban runoff focus on stormwater, and few have evaluated the relative contribution and sources of dry weather pollutant loading for a range of constituents across multiple watersheds. This study assessed dry weather loading of nutrients, metals, and bacteria in six urban watersheds in the Los Angeles region of southern California to estimate relative sources of each constituent class and the proportion of total annual load that can be attributed to dry weather discharge. In each watershed, flow and water quality were sampled from storm drain and treated wastewater inputs, as well as from in‐stream locations during at least two time periods. Data were used to calculate mean concentrations and loads for various sources. Dry weather loads were compared with modeled wet weather loads under a range of annual rainfall volumes to estimate the relative contribution of dry weather load. Mean storm drain flows were comparable between all watersheds, and in all cases, approximately 20% of the flowing storm drains accounted for 80% of the daily volume. Wastewater reclamation plants (WRP) were the main source of nutrients, storm drains accounted for almost all the bacteria, and metals sources varied by constituent. In‐stream concentrations reflected major sources, for example nutrient concentrations were highest downstream of WRP discharges, while in‐stream metals concentrations were highest downstream of the storm drains with high metals loads. Comparison of wet vs. dry weather loading indicates that dry weather loading can be a significant source of metals, ranging from less than 20% during wet years to greater than 50% during dry years.     

Evapotranspiration in the Meso‐Scale Forested Watersheds in Minjiang Valley,West China1

Abstract: Information on evapotranspiration (ET) can help us understand water balance, particularly in forested watersheds. Previous studies in China show that ET was relatively low (30‐40% of total precipitation) in the Minjiang Valley located in the upper reach of the Yangtze River Basin. However, this conclusion was derived from research on small‐scale watersheds (<100 km²). The objective of this paper was to present ET information on meso‐scale watersheds in the Minjiang Valley. Four meso‐scale watersheds (1,700‐5,600 km²) located in the Minjiang Valley were used to estimate ET using the water balance approach. We first generated forest vegetation variables (coniferous forest percentage, forest cover percentage, and derived forest vegetation index) using remote sensing data. Landsat 5 TM satellite images, acquired on June 26, 1994, were selected for the vegetation classification. Actual annual ET was calculated based on 11‐year estimated precipitation and measured streamflow data (1992‐2002). We also calculated potential ET (PET) using an improved Thornthwaite model for all four watersheds for the period of 1992‐1998. PET can provide additional information about potential capacity of water flux to atmosphere in the region. Seasonal (dry and rainy) PET and ET for all studied watersheds were also estimated for comparison purposes as the water balance approach, at shorter than annual scales, would likely provide inaccurate estimates of ET. The dominant vegetations in the Minjiang Valley were grasslands, conifer forests, and shrub‐lands. Our results confirmed that both ET and PET for three studied meso‐scale watersheds in the Minjiang Valley is relatively low (39.5‐43.8 and 28.2‐47.7% for ET and PET, respectively), with an exception of ET in the Yuzixi watershed being 71.1%. This result is generally consistent with previous research at small watershed scales. Furthermore, the low ET across various scales in the Minjiang Valley may be related to the unique deeply cut valley environment.     

Lake Water Levels and Associated Hydrologic Characteristics in the Conterminous U.S.

Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.     

Annual Estimates of Recharge,Quick‐Flow Runoff,and Evapotranspiration for the Contiguous U.S. Using Empirical Regression Equations

This study presents new data‐driven, annual estimates of the division of precipitation into the recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) water budget components for 2000‐2013 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). The algorithms used to produce these maps ensure water budget consistency over this broad spatial scale, with contributions from precipitation influx attributed to each component at 800 m resolution. The quick‐flow runoff estimates for the contribution to the rapidly varying portion of the hydrograph are produced using data from 1,434 gaged watersheds, and depend on precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and surficial geology type. Evapotranspiration estimates are produced from a regression using water balance data from 679 gaged watersheds and depend on land cover, temperature, and precipitation. The quick‐flow and ET estimates are combined to calculate recharge as the remainder of precipitation. The ET and recharge estimates are checked against independent field data, and the results show good agreement. Comparisons of recharge estimates with groundwater extraction data show that in 15% of the country, groundwater is being extracted at rates higher than the local recharge. These maps of the internally consistent water budget components of recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and ET, being derived from and tested against data, are expected to provide reliable first‐order estimates of these quantities across the CONUS, even where field measurements are sparse.     

Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [R]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R. The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water‐year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo‐climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.     

Modeling Discharge Rates Using a Coupled Modeled Approach for the Merced River in Yosemite National Park

This study describes the application of the NASA version of the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model coupled with a surface hydrologic routing scheme previously called the Hydrological Routing Algorithm (HYDRA) to model monthly discharge rates from 2000 to 2007 on the Merced River drainage in Yosemite National Park, California. To assess CASA‐HYDRA's capability to estimate actual water flows in extreme precipitation years, the focus of this study is the 2007 water year, which was very dry, and the 2005 water year, which was a moderately wet year in the historical record. Prior to comparisons to gauge records, CASA‐HYDRA snowmelt algorithms were modified with equations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Snowmelt‐Runoff Model (SRM), which has been designed to predict daily streamflow in mountain basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor. Results show that model predictions closely matched monthly flow rates at the Pohono Bridge gauge station (USGS#11266500), with R² = 0.67 and Nash‐Sutcliffe (E) = 0.65. By subdividing the upper Merced River basin into subbasins with high spatial resolution in the gridded modeling approach, we were able to determine which biophysical characteristics in the Sierra differed to the largest degree in extreme low‐flow and high‐flow years. Average elevation and snowpack accumulation were found to be the most important explanatory variables to understand subbasin contributions to monthly discharge rates.     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

TEMPORAL RESPONSES OF SURFACE‐WATER AND GROUND‐WATER TO PRECIPITATION IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Illinois data from 168 months (1986–1999) were investigated to determine the responses of surface‐water and ground‐water resources to precipitation. Such responses were generally within the month of occurrence or one to two months later, with recovery being reached another one to three months into the future, depending on season of the year. Although the drought of 1988 immediately impacted surface‐water and ground‐water resources, the time of recovery was substantially longer compared to those of individual dry months, generally continuing for several months. The extremely wet summer of 1993 resulted in elevated responses in water resources almost immediately, but in this instance continued through the following fall and winter, into the spring of 1994.     

REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF LOBLOLLY PINE TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: Large deviations in average annual air temperatures and total annual precipitation were observed across the southern United States during the last 50 years, and these fluctuations could become even larger during the next century. We used PnET-IIS, a monthly time-step forest process model that uses soil, vegetation, and climate inputs to assess the influence of changing climate on southern U.S. pine forest water use. After model predictions of historic drainage were validated, the potential influences of climate change on loblolly pine forest water use was assessed across the region using historic (1951 to 1984) monthly precipitation and air temperature which were modified by two general circulation models (GCMs). The GCMs predicted a 3.2°C to 7.2°C increase in average monthly air temperature, a -24 percent to + 31 percent change in monthly precipitation and a -1 percent to + 3 percent change in annual precipitation. As a comparison to the GCMs, a minimum climate change scenario using a constant 2°C increase in monthly air temperature and a 20 percent increase in monthly precipitation was run in conjunction with historic climate data. Predicted changes in forest water drainage were highly dependent on the GCM used. PnET-IIS predicted that along the northern range of loblolly pine, water yield would decrease with increasing leaf area, total evapotranspiration and soil water stress. However, across most of the southern U.S., PnET-IIS predicted decreased leaf area, total evapotranspiration, and soil water stress with an associated increase in water yield. Depending on the GCM and geographic location, predicted leaf area decreased to a point which would no longer sustain loblolly pine forests, and thus indicated a decrease in the southern most range of the species within the region. These results should be evaluated in relation to other changing environmental factors (i.e., CO₂ and O₃) which are not present in the current model.     

Global Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Modeling and Evaluation1

Abstract: Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro‐climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six‐hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1‐degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station‐based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS‐based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS‐based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five‐year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ～100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station‐based ET and GDAS‐ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter‐based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world. While the study revealed the potential of GDAS ETo for large‐scale hydrological applications, site‐specific use of GDAS ETo in complex hydro‐climatic regions such as coastal areas and rugged terrain may require the application of bias correction and/or disaggregation of the GDAS ETo using downscaling techniques.